Globalization Chances and Risks

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Transcription:

Globalization Chances and Risks Lecture by Dr. Christopher Stehr polymundo - Consultancy for Globalization Habilitation - Faculty of Mathematics and Economics University Ulm Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 1

Content 1. Globalization - What is that? 2. Globalization - Who makes it? 3. Globalization - Designable?! Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 2

9. November 1989 Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 3

11. September 2001 Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 4

11. December 2001 Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 5

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 6

Worldwide Developments RESSOURCE RESSOURCE CONFLICTS CONFLICTS NN Environment TERRORISM TERRORISM Global Cities Global Cities KLIMATE KLIMATE FUNDAMENTALISM FUNDAMENTALISM POPULATION POPULATION MIGRATION MIGRATION WEATHER WEATHER CAPITAL ABC-Weapons S S (INNER-)CONFLICTS Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 7

Definition Globalization "Globalization is the continuous interlinking process of different worldwide happening occurrences in the fields of economy, technique, politics, culture and social aspects of nations with interlinked interdependenciesand consequences. Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 8

What is Globalization? Not a new Phenomena No fixed steady State.. But a continuous Process Increase, Consolidation, Condensation of cross-frontier Activities Increase of transnational Players Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 9

Was ist Globalization? First of all economical Phenomena Worldwide Opening of Markets for Goods, Currency and Work Force Interlocking and Dependency of different Markets International/Global (?) Value added Chain Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 10

World Production World Trade World Market Forms of Globalization Economy Technique Ecology Politics World Communication World Information World Standards Environment Environmental Consciousness Environmental Crisis World Politics World Society World Cultur Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 11

The new Globalization Speed Interlinkage Change of Power Placeless, Timeless Change of Hierarchy Time Space Interdependency Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 12

Globalization Index Konjunkturforschungsstelle ETH Zürich http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 13

What is measured? Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 14

What is measured? Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 15

What is measured? Schwellenländer (BRICS) Multinationale Unternehmen Supranationale Organisationen Internationale KMU und NGO s Kapitaleigentümer (>1Mrd. US$) Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 16

Globalization Degree - World Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 17

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 18

Globalization Degree - World Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 19

Globalization - Top 15 Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 20

Globalization - Last 15 Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 21

Globalization Degree - Germany Globalization Index total: Nr. 15 Economical Globalization: Nr. 40 Social Globalization: Nr. 16 Political Globalization: Nr. 6 Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 22

Globalization Degree - Germany Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 23

Globalization Degree - Comparison USA - Germany Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 24

Globalization Degree - Comparison Japan - Germany Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 25

Summary What is Globalization? Forms of Globalization Globalization Index What is measured? Globalization Degree World Index: Top 15 - Last 15 Globalization Degree Germany, USA, Japan Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 26

Content 1. Globalization - What is that? 2. Globalization - Who makes it? 3. Globalization - Designable?! Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 27

Player of the Globalization Nations Enterprises Individuals Economy Technique Ecology Politics Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 28

Old Player USA Japan G7, G8, G12 Old vs. New Europe United Nations (Council) Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 29

New Player Emerging Countries (BRICS) Global Cities and Regions Multinational Enterprises (MNE) Supranational Organizations International SME and NGO s Capital Owner (>1Billion US$) Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 30

BRICS - Status Quo Brazil: Materials Resources China: Factory Workshop of the World India: Generic Products Software Russia: Crude Oil and Natural Gasoline Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 31

Quantitative Dimensions USA UNO LA ATTAC WTO RUS EU CHINA JAPAN ASEAN IWF NGO s SME MNE Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 32

+ Qualitative Dimensions RUS Environment EU NN ATTAC RESSOURCE RESSOURCE CONFLICTS CONFLICTS UNO CHINA TERRORISM TERRORISM WTO USA JAPAN Global Cities Global Cities LA KLIMATE KLIMATE ASEAN IWF POPULATION POPULATION MIGRATION MIGRATION MNE FUNDAMENTALISM FUNDAMENTALISM WEATHER WEATHER CAPITAL SME NGO s ABC-Weapons S S (INNER-)CONFLICTS Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 33

Summary Player of the Globalization Old Player New Player Emerging Countries (BRICS) Quantitative Dimensions Qualitative Dimensions Globalization Accelerators Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 34

Content 1. Globalization - What is that? 2. Globalization - Who makes it? 3. Globalization - Designable?! Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 35

Solutions 1992 Rio World Eco Conference 1993 Wien World Human Rights 1994 Cairo World Population 1995 Copenhagen World Social 1995 Peking World Women C. 1997 Kyoto World Climate 1998 to 2007 Follow Up Conf. Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 36

New Player - Enterprises Global Player (Transnationality Index) Small/Medium Enterprises (SME) Hidden Champions International SME Grown Global SME Born Globals (Export orientated) Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 37

Going Global - Strategies High Possibility of Control Setting Up Enterprise Merger & Acquisitions Joint Venture Leadership Cooperation Low Franchising Licensing Export Representation Low Level of Needs Ressources Hoch Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 38

Going Global - Strategies Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 39

Globalization Branch Luxury Internationalization Globalization Value Added Chain and (Sourcing, Production, Sales) other Areas of Operation (HR, F) Glokalisierung (Adaptation/Innovation) Global Concentration Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 40

Challenges I Management Employee Globalization Organization Finance Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 41

Challenges II Reform People Globalization Stability Innovation Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 42

Globalization - even more?! More Globalization Countries/Players Distribution/Deregulation Global Competition: Work, Ground, Capital Knowledge and Innovation Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 43

Globalization - even more?! Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 44

The Asiatic Century?! Achieving States Goals: Development Human Resources Welfare Important Role/World Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 45

Chances in the Future?! 44.500 The Economies in 2050 35.000 GDP ( Basis 2003 in Billion US$) 27.500 6.500 6.000 5.500 3.500 3.300 2.700 2.000 China USA Indien Quelle: Goldman Sachs, 2003 Japan Brasilien Russland UK Deutschland Frankreich Italien Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 46

Development GDP - BRICS 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 BRICs G6 GDP (in Billion. US$) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Quelle: Goldman Sachs, 2003 Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 47

The American Dream Super Power Unilateralism Liberal Empire Enemy Projection Values = Security Missionary Task World built after US-Values Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 48

The European Dream Global Responsibility Civil Society Peace and Freedom Sustainability Human Rights Welfare State Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 49

Chances and Risks Glocalisation Zweite Moderne Instability/Conflicts Ecological Questions Democracy/Welfare Income Distribution Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 50

Summary Global Solutions Going Global Strategies (SME) Challenges I + II The Asiatic Century Chances in the Future The American Dream The European Dream Chances and Risks Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 51

Summary 1. Globalization - What is that? 2. Globalization - Who makes it? 3. Globalization - Designable!? Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 52

Thank you very much for your attention Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 53

Success - in your global future! Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 54