Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Dr. Durre Nayab (PIDE), Islamabad 13 th Conference of the GIZ Sector Network Health & Social Protection in Asia and Eastern Europe November 13-14, 2013. Hanoi, Vietnam Page 1
We will talk about An overview of the demographic transition in Pakistan and the window of opportunity resulting from it- the demographic dividend Opportunities offered and challenges resulting from these demographic changes What can be done to reap the benefits offered by this one time opportunity provided by demography 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 2
Population Dynamics in Pakistan 1970-2070 Page 3
Demographic Transition in Pakistan: 1970-2070 Page 4
Changing Shape of Pakistan: 1970-2070 1970 2020 2070 UN Population Projections 2012 Revision Page 5
Population Growth: Rate and Numbers 1970-2070 Page 6
Age Distribution: 1970-2070 Page 7
Ratio of Age Groups: 1970-2070 Page 8
Dependency Ratio: 1970-2070 Page 9
Opportunities and Challenges Emerging from these Population Dynamics Page 10
Labour Supply and demand Human capital Intrinsically the same! Education and skills training Health Reproductive and geriatric PIDE Opportunities and Challenges 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 11
Age-Sex Specific Labour Force Participation Rates: 2010-2011 (%) Page 12
Age-Sex Specific Unemployment Rates: 2010-2011 (%) Page 13
Work Age Population by Sex: 1970-2070 (in millions) Page 14
Labour: Opportunities and Challenges Opportunity: Low dependency levels and availability of labour in great numbers due to the population momentum following the fertility decline. Challenge: Providing jobs to these huge numbers. Growth of more than 8% is required to absorb this labour force. Generating employment not just for the youth/working age group but growing numbers of elderly in the labour force. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 15
Literacy Levels by Sex: 2010-2011 Page 16
PIDE Population in School Going Ages by Level: 1970-2070 In millions Page 17
Human Capital: Opportunities and Challenges Opportunity: Labour force with high literacy and skills level can be more productive, with a huge labour force the impact can be even bigger. Challenge: How to get out of the current trap of low literacy and skills level prevalent in the country? Link education/skills with the job market, and promotion of formal skill training and skill certification. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 18
Females Aged 15-49 Years and TFR: 1970-2070 Page 19
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Need 40.0 (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Unmet Need CPR Modern Method 1990-91 1996-97 2000-01 2006-07 Page 20
Elderly Population: 1970-2070 (in millions) > 40 mn Page 21
Health: Opportunities and Challenges Opportunity: Huge numbers of females with good reproductive healthcare can participate in the labour market, reduce the health cost and maintain the fertility decline. Challenge: How to provide efficient healthcare to these females? Specialised geriatrics care is nonexistent area in the country. In the absence of a sound social protection program taking care of these elderly can be a major issue. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 22
What Needs to be Done Page 23
Employment generation is imperative. Not just any employment but decent employment, one that increases real income and lowers poverty of those self-employed and the family workers. Only an educated and skilled labour force can allow the country to reap the demographic dividend. Improving literacy levels and imparting skills to the labour force that are relevant to the labour market, not just nationally but internationally, are vital. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 24
Reducing gender disparities and increasing female employment. Alleviating health status of the population not just for its economic implications but as a right. Needs of the youth bulge need to be catered for, including education, health and livelihood. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 25
Demography is providing us an opportunity which is challenging. With proper policies and their implementation we can convert this challenge into an opportunity. Page 26
Thank You Page 27