The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Robert Puentes, Fellow

The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Robert Puentes, Fellow The Changing Shape of the City Rail-Volution Chicago, IL November 7, 2006

The Changing Shape of the City I What is the context for the discussion about cities and older suburbs? II What are the major demographic trends affecting metropolitan areas? III What is in store for the future?

Context Trends Conclusion Profound demographic, economic, social, and cultural forces are reshaping the nation Demographically, the country is growing, aging, and diversifying. Economically, the nation is being transformed by globalization, deindustrialization, and technological innovation. Culturally, the nation is changing its attitude towards cities and urban living.

Context Trends Conclusion The result: Cities and first suburbs have an opportunity to attract and retain young professionals, childless couples, baby boomers, new immigrants and the assets of the knowledge economy

II What are the major demographic trends affecting metropolitan areas? 1. City resurgence 2. Uneven growth 3. Racial diversity 4. Geography of poverty

Context Trends: Downtowns Conclusion Recent demographic and market changes have already led to a surge of population in urban areas.. Population growth in 50 largest cities, 1970-2005 10% 8% 6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 4% 2% 0% -2% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Context Trends: Downtowns Conclusion And have also contributed to the downtown revitalization in cities 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 Total population, 45 U.S. downtowns, 1970-2000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000-1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Birch, Source: Who Lives Downtown, Brookings, 2005

Context Trends: Downtowns Conclusion During the 1990s, the growth in some downtowns like Chicago - was substantial Absolute change in population, 1990-2000 Source: Birch, 2005 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Chicago Lower Manhattan San Francisco Seattle 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Atlanta Portland L.A. Baltimore D.C. 0

Context Trends: Downtowns Conclusion The majority of downtowners in 2000 lived alone; the next largest group contained young couples and empty nesters Downtown households by type, 2000 Source: Birch, 2005 11% 6% Married with kids Married without kids 14% Other family with kids Other family without kids Living alone 5% Other non-family 5% 59%

Context Trends: Downtowns Conclusion Younger workers (age 25-44) form the largest number of downtowners, but older workers (age 45-64) are catching up Downtown residents by age, 1990-2000 Source: Birch, 2005 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 1990 2000 - Kids Students Younger workers (Under 18) (18-24) Older workers (25-44) (45-64) Seniors (Over 65)

II What are the major demographic trends affecting metropolitan areas? 1. City resurgence 2. Uneven growth 3. Racial diversity 4. Geography of poverty

Context Trends: Decentralization Conclusion Population is continuing to decentralize in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area Selected cities and suburbs, population growth 1990-2000 50% 40% 44% 37% City Suburbs Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30% 22% 20% 16% 19% 18% 10% 6% 4% 7% 9% 0% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100

Context Trends: Decentralization Conclusion Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in cities 35% Central city Suburbs Population growth, 1990-2000 15% Source: Frey. City Families and Suburban Singles, Brookings, 2003-5% All Households Married - no children Married - with children Other Family - no children Other Family - with children Nonfamily

Context Trends: Decentralization Conclusion If not for immigration, several of the nation s largest cities would not have grown during the 1990s 20% 15% 18.1% Overall Without immigration Population growth with and without foreign-born, 1990-2000 10% 9.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 5% 1.7% 4.6% 4.0% 2.6% 0% -5% -1.4% -3.9% -1.7% -3.9% -10% Dallas New York Minneapolis Chicago Boston

Context Trends: Decentralization Conclusion At the same time, over half of all jobs in large metropolitan areas are located more than 10 miles outside of downtowns Share of jobs within 3-, 10-, and greater- than-10- mile radius of center, 2002 Source: Alan Berube, Brookings 52% Outside 10 miles 17% Inside 3 miles 31% Between 3 and 10 miles

Context Trends: Weak Markets Conclusion While many cities are healthy and vibrant, others are not Nearly 17 million Americans live in a weak market city Source: Wolman and Furdell, George Washington University Weak market cities rank in the bottom 3rd across a range of economic indicators (ex. unemployment, poverty, income)

II What are the major demographic trends affecting metropolitan areas? 1. City resurgence 2. Uneven growth 3. Racial diversity 4. Geography of poverty

Context Trends: Diversity Conclusion In aggregate, the racial makeup of the 100 largest cities has shifted. The top hundred cities are now majority minority White Black Hispanic Asian Multi-racial 7% 23% 44% 24% Share of population by race and ethnicity, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Context Trends: Diversity Conclusion Many downtowns are racially and ethnically diverse. More so than 20 years ago Portland Midtown Manhattan 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Downtown Race and Ethnicity, 2000 Source: Birch, 2005 Chicago Seattle Baltimore Pittsburgh San Francisco Washington, D.C. Atlanta Detroit San Antonio Los Angeles White Black Asian Hispanic

Context Trends: Diversity Conclusion In many metro areas, the locus of immigration is shifting from the central city to the suburbs 100% 75% 50% Percent of foreignborn population in suburbs, 2000 In the U.S. 48% of all immigrants live in suburbs 25% 0% Atlanta Washington Miami Las Vegas Portland Chicago Los Angeles San Francisco Charlotte New York Source: Singer, New Immigrant Gateways, Brookings, 2003

Context Trends: Diversity Conclusion The percent of each racial/ethnic group living in the suburbs increased substantially Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60% 50% 40% 1990 2000 39% 33% 51% 55% 46% 50% 30% 20% 10% 0% Blacks Asians Hispanics

II What are the major demographic trends affecting metropolitan areas? 1. City resurgence 2. Uneven growth 3. Racial diversity 4. Geography of poverty

Context Trends: Poverty Conclusion More of America s poor live in large metropolitan suburbs than live in big cities Below-poverty population by location, 2005* Source: American Community Survey Large Cities 19% 30% * Estimates are roughly +/- 0.5 % pts. Large Suburbs Smaller Cities/Towns Micropolitan/Rural 20% 31%

Context Trends: Poverty Conclusion But residents of large cities are still almost twice as likely to be poor as residents of suburbs Percentage of people in poverty, 2005 Source: American Community Survey 25 20 15 14.0 16.7 18.4 10 9.4 5 - Large Suburbs Smaller Cities/Towns Micropolitan/Rural Large Cities

Context Trends: Poverty Conclusion Poverty rates in central cities declined from 1990 to 2002, while poverty rates in the suburbs have increased slightly Poverty rates for central cities and suburbs, 1990-2001 20% 15% 19% 17% 1990 2002 Source: Current Population Survey, 2002 10% 9% 9% 5% 0% Central City Suburbs

Context Trends: Poverty Conclusion During the 1990s, the number of high-poverty neighborhoods in central cities dropped significantly In Chicago, the number of high poverty tracts fell from 187 to 114. 1990 2000

Context Trends: Poverty Conclusion While the number of high-poverty areas is dropping sharply in cities, it is increasing at an alarming rate in first suburbs 10% Percent of census tracts in first suburbs exceeding specified poverty thresholds, 1970-2000 Source: Puentes and Warren, One Fifth of America, Brookings, 2006 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Tracts with 20% poverty rate Tracts with 30% poverty rate Tracts with 20% poverty rate 1970 1980 1990 2000

Context Trends: Poverty Conclusion Finally, the percent of city neighborhoods that were middle income fell by half from 1970-2000 Share of central city neighborhoods, by income category, 2000 Source: Booza et al, Where Did They Go? Brookings, 2006 100% 75% 50% 12 13 16 16 45 34 28 23 High Middle 12 metro areas: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, Louisville, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Francisco, Washington 25% 0% 42 53 56 61 1970 1980 1990 2000 Low

The Changing Shape of the City I What is the context for the discussion about cities and older suburbs? II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? III What is in store for the future?

Context Trends Conclusion Five key takeaways for the changing shape of the city In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after 2000. Household formation will have profoundly important impacts. Childless married-couple and single-person households will grow rapidly. Older, inner-ring first suburbs will figure prominently in conversations about metropolitan growth and development. The nation will continue to get much more diverse and multi-cultural. Suburbs especially will have to adapt. Demographics are not the only determinant of our urban future: economic restructuring, globalization, energy, education, governance.