2017/SOM1/HRDWG/WKSP/013 Pacific Possible: Labour Mobility Submitted by: Australian National University Workshop on the Development of an APEC Labour Mobility Framework Nha Trang, Viet Nam 18-19 February 2017
Sections Pacific Possible: Labour Mobility examines what is possible through overseas employment for Pacific Islanders. A collaborative project of the ANU Development Policy Centre and the World Bank Social and Labour Global Practice. 1.Context 2.Projections 3.Conclusions (for discussion) Authored by Richard Curtain, Jesse Doyle, Matthew Dornan and Stephen Howes. 1
Pacific islands 1. Context 2
Why Pacific Possible? Why Pacific Possible? 3
Why labour mobility? Why labour mobility? Country Labour force entrants (annually) Formal sector jobs created (annually) Kiribati 3,200 65 Solomon Islands 13,000 2,089 Tonga 5,600 325 Vanuatu 3,800 1,260 Remittances as a percentage of GDP 4
The labour mobility triple win Given the unique development challenges facing the Pacific Island countries, there is now broad consensus that expanding labour mobility is vital for the future of the Pacific. Labour mobility is already critical for Australia and New Zealand International migrant stock as a percentage of the population (2015) Where countries are unable to bring jobs to the people, try taking the people to the jobs. Labour mobility provides a triple win for workers, the countries they are from and the countries they work in. 5
Low skilled temporary labour mobility Australia: Seasonal Worker Program (about 5,000 workers each year; est. 2007 as a pilot) Pacific Microstates visa (est. 2016) New Zealand: Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme (about 9,000 workers; est. 2007) Pacific Access Category Samoa Quota 2. Projections 6
Approach to identifying reforms Receiving Country Reforms Focus on both sending and receiving countries, and try to address their concerns Receiving countries: Focus on Australia, New Zealand, South Korea. Sending countries: Focus on PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Kiribati and Tuvalu Suggest a menu of options Seasonal, temporary, and long-term. Focus on low and medium-skilled Based on extensive new research presented in background papers of existing schemes and various issues. Expand seasonal work access (<12 months) Address demand-side constraints in the SWP (now uncapped); Extend the duration of stay for the SWP; Increase the cap for the RSE Expand temporary access (1-5 years) Working Holiday Maker Visa; Korea s Employment Permit System; Improve labour mobility outcomes for APTC graduates; Pacific Caregiver Program Expand long-term access (>5 years) ANZ Atoll Access Agreement; Australian Pacific Access Category Others 7
Sending Country Reforms Lifting the quantity and quality of skills supply This extends to basic literacy/ numeracy; Labour mobility doesn t have to lead to brain drain Countries can promote work income-contingent loan schemes Promoting Pacific workers and opportunities Good performance is the best form of promotion; Task Pacific Island Trade & Invest with labour mobility market research and promotion. Minimizing any negative social impacts Promote schemes, which avoid family separation Scenario analysis out to 2040 Business as usual: Pacific labour mobility under existing policies. Medium growth scenario Compared to BAU, a doubling of non-seasonal migration flows and 50% increase in seasonal workers Labour mobility growth focused on the low mobility and atoll states Achieved by partial implementation of the reforms proposed in the report. High growth scenario Compared to BAU, a tripling of non-seasonal migration flows and doubling of seasonal workers Labour mobility growth focused on the low mobility and atoll states Achieved by substantial implementation of the reforms proposed in the report. The analysis is illustrative but telling. 8
The 3 scenarios: migrants The 3 scenarios: remittances Number of Pacific migrants (% of Pacific resident population) Remittances: USD and % GDP 6% 5% 4% 3% High Medium BAU 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 $US miilions (2005 prices) 8% 6% 4% % GDP 2% 500 2% 1% 0% 2013 2040 0 2013 2040 BAU Medium High 0% 2013 2040 BAU Medium High 9
What would it mean for the Pacific? What would it mean for receiving countries? Including the net income from migrants, in the high-growth scenario national income growth per capita doubles relative to BAU for PNG and Solomon Islands, triples for Vanuatu, and quintuples for Kiribati. 4.0 GNI+ per capita in 2040 (2013=1) 3.5 3.0 2.5 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2.0 2% 1.5 1% 1.0 Fiji Kiribati RMI FSM Palau PNG Samoa Solomon Islands BAU Medium High Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu 0% Australia New Zealand 2013 2040 - BAU 2040 - Medium 2040 - High 10
Conclusions Labour mobility is a $10 billion prize for the Pacific And a prize that benefits the receiving countries as well Regulation is important. Less regulated schemes should not be allowed to undermine better regulated schemes The focus needs to be on groups neglected to date: low skilled and unskilled migrants Pacific Possible online Website: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/pacifici slands/brief/pacific-possible Join the conversation To join the conversation on social media, use the #PacificPossible hashtag through the following channels (Facebook, twitter, Instagram) Discussion / questions? 11