International Migration Outlook SOPEMI 2010
International Migration Outlook SOPEMI 2010
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where governments work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. ISBN 978-92-64-08601-2 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-08602-9 (PDF) Also available in French: Perspectives des migrations internationales : SOPEMI 2010 Photo credits: Cover illustration: Left: Skip Nall/ Photodisc/GettyImages, DR/GettyImages Middle: Stockbyte/GettyImages, Stockbyte/GettyImages Right: Thomas Barwick/ Digital Vision/GettyImages, Ryan McVay/ Photodisc/GettyImages, Digital Vision/ Photodisc/ GettyImages. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. OECD 2010 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rights@oecd.org. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at info@copyright.com or the Centre français d exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at contact@cfcopies.com.
FOREWORD Foreword This publication constitutes the thirty-fourth report of the OECD s Continuous Reporting System on migration (known by its French acronym SOPEMI). The report is divided into five parts plus a statistical annex. Part I contains two subsections. The first of these provides a broad overview of recent trends in international migration flows, both temporary and permanent and a look at population growth in countries undergoing demographic decline. Migration already accounts for about 60% of total population growth in the OECD as a whole, and more than 85% in the countries of southern Europe, Austria and the Czech Republic. Special attention is devoted to changes in labour migration flows associated with the economic crisis. The movement of international students the number of foreign students in tertiary education more than doubled in the OECD between 2000 and 2007 is examined, and the first attempt to calculate stay rates changes of status for those who do not renew their student permits is presented, showing that stay rates varied between 15 and 35% in 2007. The second subsection of Part I highlights major changes in migration policy. It looks specifically at the expansion in demand-driven systems for recruitment of workers from abroad, as well as the increasing use of points-based systems to select immigrants likely to succeed on the labour market. Recent developments in integration, residence and citizenship policies are described. Part II provides a close look at the impact of the economic crisis on the employment situation of immigrants, following up on the 2009 Special Edition of the International Migration Outlook focusing on the crisis. The disproportionate impact of the crisis on immigrants is examined, looking at factors such as concentration in specific sectors and gender differences. Parts III and IV are devoted to special topics. Part III examines the determinants of public opinion regarding migration. It looks at recent opinion surveys, individual determinants and the role of major stakeholders such as social partners and the media. Parts IV focuses on the determinants of acquisition of nationality and the impact of naturalisation on labour market outcomes. Part V presents succinct country-specific notes and statistics on developments in international migration movements and policies in OECD countries in recent years. Finally, the statistical annex includes a broad selection of recent and historical statistics on immigrant flows, the foreign and foreign-born populations, naturalisations and migrant workers. 3
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents Editorial: Ensuring that Migrants are Onboard the Recovery Train............... 15 Introduction................................................................ 19 Part I RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION A. Recent Flows, Demographic Developments and Migration.................... 26 1. Introduction......................................................... 26 2. International migration flows during 2008............................... 27 3. Immigration flows by category of entry.................................. 29 4. Temporary worker migration.......................................... 30 5. International migration flows and the economic crisis.................... 32 6. Continents, regions and countries of origin of immigrants................. 33 7. Asylum seekers...................................................... 40 8. International students................................................ 41 9. Demographic developments in OECD countries and international migration. 45 B. Migration Policy Development in OECD Countries........................... 54 1. Introduction......................................................... 54 2. Labour migration policies............................................. 54 3. International students................................................ 62 4. Humanitarian policies................................................ 64 5. General administrative procedures and structure......................... 66 6. Enforcement and border control........................................ 69 7. International agreements............................................. 72 8. Integration policies................................................... 73 9. Migration policy in OECD countries..................................... 79 Notes...................................................................... 81 References.................................................................. 82 Part II MIGRANTS IN OECD LABOUR MARKETS THROUGH THE CRISIS 1. A brief analysis of the dynamics of foreign-born employment in OECD countries through the crisis........................................................ 85 2. How were different migrant groups affected by the worsening of labour market conditions.............................................................. 92 5
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3. What are the main determinants of the recent labour market outcomes of immigrants?.......................................................... 97 4. Helping immigrants through the crisis and beyond........................... 101 Notes...................................................................... 103 References.................................................................. 104 Annex II.A1.1. Annex II.A1.2a. Annex II.A1.2b. Quarterly employment and unemployment rates (15-64) by place of birth in selected OECD countries, 2007-2009........................ 106 Top 10 industries with the largest changes in foreign- and native-born employment between 2008 and 2009 in the European Union............ 112 Top 10 industries with the largest changes in foreign- and native-born employment between 2007 and 2009 in the United States............... 113 Part III PUBLIC OPINIONS AND IMMIGRATION: INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES, INTEREST GROUPS AND THE MEDIA Summary.................................................................. 116 Introduction................................................................ 116 1. Public opinion on immigration and migration systems........................ 117 2. Determinants of preferences over immigration.............................. 123 3. Interest groups and their influence on migration policy....................... 137 4. The role of the media and the weight of beliefs in shaping public opinion....... 141 Conclusion................................................................. 145 Notes...................................................................... 146 References.................................................................. 148 Annex III.A1. Presentation of Surveys....................................... 151 Annex III.A2. Determinants of Beliefs about the Impact of Immigration and Preferences about Migration Policy Based on the World Value Survey (WVS)......... 155 Part IV NATURALISATION AND THE LABOUR MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS Key findings................................................................ 158 Introduction............................................................... 159 1. Citizenship take-up among immigrants: An overview across selected OECD countries.......................................................... 161 2. The labour market outcomes of naturalised and non-naturalised immigrants.... 166 3. The impact of naturalisation on immigrants labour market outcomes.......... 175 Conclusions................................................................ 177 Notes...................................................................... 180 References.................................................................. 181 Methodological Annex....................................................... 183 6
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part V RECENT CHANGES IN MIGRATION MOVEMENTS AND POLICIES (COUNTRY NOTES) Australia........................ 188 Austria.......................... 190 Belgium......................... 192 Bulgaria......................... 194 Canada.......................... 196 Czech Republic................... 198 Denmark........................ 200 Finland.......................... 202 France........................... 204 Germany........................ 206 Greece........................... 208 Hungary......................... 210 Ireland.......................... 212 Italy............................. 214 Japan............................ 216 Korea........................... 218 Lithuania........................ 220 Luxembourg..................... 222 Mexico.......................... 224 Netherlands...................... 226 New Zealand..................... 228 Norway.......................... 230 Poland.......................... 232 Portugal......................... 234 Romania......................... 236 Slovak Republic................... 238 Spain............................ 240 Sweden.......................... 242 Switzerland........................ 244 Turkey.......................... 246 United Kingdom.................. 248 United States..................... 250 STATISTICAL ANNEX Introduction................................................................ 255 General comments on tables.................................................. 256 Inflows and outflows of foreign population..................................... 257 Inflows of asylum seekers.................................................... 280 Stocks of foreign and foreign-born population.................................. 297 Acquisition of nationality.................................................... 329 Inflows of foreign workers.................................................... 345 Stocks of foreign and foreign-born labour...................................... 349 List of Correspondents of the Continuous Reporting System on Migration (SOPEMI)... 355 List of OECD Secretariat members involved in the preparation of this report....... 357 7
TABLE OF CONTENTS Figures, Tables and Boxes Part I RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Figures I.1. Observed and projected size of the incoming (20-24) and outgoing (60-64) working-age cohorts in OECD countries, 2000-2030........................ 26 I.2. Permanent-type migration by category of entry, 2008..................... 30 I.3. Top 20 origin countries of immigrants to the OECD, 1997-2008.............. 36 I.4. Change in inflows of migrants by country of origin, selected OECD countries, 1997-2007 and 2008................................................... 38 I.5. Contribution of natural increase and of net migration to average annual population growth, 2002-2006.......................................... 46 I.6. Permanent-type immigration relative to the average size of a single-year cohort 20-24, 2004-2007............................................... 47 I.7. Distribution of the components of change in employment, selected OECD countries, 2005-2008............................................ 49 I.8. Evolution of dependency ratios over the period 2000-2030, OECD countries... 52 Tables I.1. International migration flows, 2003-2008................................ 27 I.2. Temporary worker migration in OECD countries, 2003-2008................ 31 I.3. Distribution of inflows of migrants, by region of origin and destination, 2008.... 34 I.4. Immigrant flows to the OECD area by income group and region of origin, 2008... 34 I.5. Change in inflows to OECD, 1995-2008.................................. 37 I.6. Inflows of asylum seekers in OECD countries, levels, trends and main countries of origin, 2007-2008.......................................... 40 I.7. Tertiary enrolment of international and foreign students (2007) and evolution since 2000.................................................. 43 I.8. Status changes of international students and stay rates in selected OECD countries, 2007................................................. 45 I.9. Observed (2000-2010) and projected (2010-2020) growth in the working-age population (20-64) at assumed migration levels........................... 50 I.10. Points attributed under different recruitment systems in selected OECD countries, 2010...................................................... 60 Boxes I.1. Standardised statistics on permanent immigrant inflows.................. 28 I.2. Classifying countries of origin by national income levels................... 35 I.3. The definition of international students............................... 42 I.4. Evolving point-based systems for skilled migration in OECD countries......... 59 8
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part II MIGRANTS IN OECD LABOUR MARKETS THROUGH THE CRISIS Figures II.1. Harmonised unemployment rates, 2007-2009............................ 85 II.2. Change in native- and foreign-born employment during recent economic downturns in selected OECD countries.................................. 87 II.3. Change in unemployment and employment rates by place of birth between 2008 and 2009................................................ 90 II.4. Contribution of various factors to foreign- and native-born employment between 2008 and 2009................................................ 91 II.5. Change in employment rates by place of birth and by age in selected OECD countries, 2008-2009............................................ 94 II.6. Change in unemployment rates by place of birth and by level of education in selected OECD countries, 2008-2009.................................. 95 II.7a. Unemployment and inactivity rates of foreign born in EU15 by main regions of origin, 2008-2009................................................... 96 II.7b. Unemployment rates in Spain by region of origin, 2007-2009............... 96 II.7c. Unemployment rates in the United Kingdom by region of origin, 2007-2009.. 96 II.7d. Unemployment rates in the United States by region of origin, 2007-2009..... 96 II.8. Actual and expected changes in employment of immigrants in selected OECD countries between 2008 and 2009................................. 98 II.9. Growth in part-time employment by place of birth in selected OECD countries, 2008-2009............................................ 101 Tables II.1. Unemployment rate and inflows of foreign workers in some European OECD countries at the time of the second oil crisis........................ 86 II.2. Share of different types of employment in total employment by place of birth (15-64 years old), 2008.......................................... 100 Annex II.A1.1. Quarterly employment and unemployment rates (15-64) by place of birth in selected OECD countries, 2007-2009.................................... 106 II.A1.2a. Top 10 industries with the largest changes in foreign- and native-born employment between 2008 and 2009 in the European Union............... 112 II.A1.2b. Top 10 industries with the largest changes in foreign- and native-born employment between 2007 and 2009 in the United States.................. 113 Box II.1. Impact of the economic crisis on immigrant workers in Japan and policy responses........................................................... 102 9
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part III PUBLIC OPINIONS AND IMMIGRATION: INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES, INTEREST GROUPS AND THE MEDIA Figures III.1. Proportions of respondents in favour of increasing, maintaining or reducing current immigration flows to their countries, 2003........................ 119 III.2. Support for increased immigration in relation to the rising proportion of immigrants in the populations of certain OECD countries, 1995-2003...... 120 III.3. opinions on immigrants and refugees, 1995...................... 120 III.4. Opinions on the importance of different selection criteria for immigration, 2002. 121 III.5. Opinions about the impact of immigrants on the economy and balance of opinions in favour of immigration in certain OECD countries, 2003....... 122 III.6. Relationship between unemployment rate and beliefs about the positive economic impact of immigration....................................... 123 III.7. Perceived impact of immigration on the economy and the cultural life, 2008.... 126 Annex III.A1.1. Proportion of non-responses to questions about preferred trends in immigration flows................................................. 154 Tables III.1. Determinants of beliefs about the impact of immigration and preferences over migration policy, ESS surveys, 2002-2008.................................... 128 III.2. Determinants of beliefs about the impact of immigration and preferences over migration policy, ISSP survey, 2003................................. 129 III.3. Determinants of beliefs about the impact of immigration and preferences about immigration policy, analysis by country..................................... 130 III.4. Different countries public opinion on conditions governing immigrants eligibility to the same social entitlements enjoyed by those already resident in the country, 2008.................................................. 134 III.5. Individual determinants of opinions about immigrants eligibility for social benefits, ESS 2008......................................................... 135 Annexes III.A1.1. European countries covered by the analyses based on the European Social Surveys....................................................... 151 III.A1.2. Countries covered by the analyses based on the World Value Survey........ 152 III.A1.3. Countries covered by the analyses based on the International Social Survey, 2003......................................................... 152 III.A2.1. Determinants of beliefs about the impact of immigration and preferences about migration policy, WVS, 1995-2008................................. 156 10
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part IV NATURALISATION AND THE LABOUR MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS Figures IV.1. Share of foreign-born who have the host-country nationality, selected OECD countries, by gender, around 2007................................. 162 IV.2. Employment rates for immigrants by citizenship status, around 2007....... 167 IV.3. Public sector share of total employment, naturalised and non-naturalised immigrants, as a proportion of the public sector share for native-born persons, around 2007................................................. 173 Tables IV.1. Naturalisation rates (%) by origin, around 2007........................... 162 IV.2. Percentage of foreign-born who have the nationality of the host country, 1999/2000 and 2007/2008, by region of origin, selected European OECD countries...................................................... 163 IV.3. Share of low- and high-educated immigrants by citizenship status and origin, around 2007.............................................................. 166 IV.4. Estimated higher probability to be in employment associated with naturalisation (in percentage points), around 2007........................ 168 IV.5. Distribution of employed immigrants by occupational level, by gender and citizenship status (%), around 2007......................................... 169 IV.6. Estimated higher probability of employment in a high-skilled occupation associated with naturalisation (in percentage points), around 2007.......... 170 IV.7. Estimated higher wage associated with naturalisation, by origin, France and Germany, around 2006............................................ 172 IV.8. Estimated higher probability to be employed in the public sector associated with naturalisation (in percentage points), around 2007................... 174 Annexes IV.A1.1. Employment rates of immigrant men by citizenship status and origin, around 2007..................................................... 184 IV.A1.2. Employment rates of immigrant women by citizenship status and origin, around 2007......................................................... 185 IV.A1.3. Longitudinal studies on the impact of naturalisation on the labour market outcomes of immigrants.............................................. 186 Box IV.1. Dual citizenship...................................................... 164 11
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part V RECENT CHANGES IN MIGRATION MOVEMENTS AND POLICIES Australia: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 189 Austria: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 191 Belgium: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 193 Bulgaria: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 195 Canada: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 197 Czech Republic: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 199 Denmark: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 201 Finland: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 203 France: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 205 Germany: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 207 Greece: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 209 Hungary: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 211 Ireland: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 213 Italy: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 215 Japan: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 217 Korea: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 219 Lithuania: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 221 Luxembourg: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 223 Mexico: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 225 Netherlands: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 227 New Zealand: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 229 Norway: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 231 Poland: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 233 Portugal: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 235 Romania: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 237 Slovak Republic: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 239 Spain: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 241 Sweden: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 243 Switzerland: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 245 Turkey: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 247 United Kingdom: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 249 United States: Recent trends in migrants flows and stocks................. 251 12
TABLE OF CONTENTS STATISTICAL ANNEX Inflows and outflows of foreign population...................................... 257 A.1.1.Inflows of foreign population into OECD countries.......................... 259 A.1.2.Outflows of foreign population from OECD countries........................ 260 B.1.1. Australia................... 261 B.1.1. Austria..................... 261 B.1.1. Belgium.................... 262 B.1.1. Canada..................... 262 B.1.1. Switzerland................. 263 B.1.1. Czech Republic.............. 263 B.1.1. Germany................... 264 B.1.1. Denmark................... 264 B.1.1. Spain...................... 265 B.1.1. Finland..................... 265 B.1.1. France..................... 266 B.1.1. United Kingdom............. 267 B.1.1. Hungary.................... 268 B.1.1. Ireland..................... 268 B.1.1. Italy....................... 269 B.1.1. Japan...................... 269 B.1.1. Korea...................... 270 B.1.1. Luxembourg................ 270 B.1.1. Mexico..................... 271 B.1.1. Netherlands................ 271 B.1.1. Norway.................... 272 B.1.1. New Zealand............... 272 B.1.1. Poland..................... 273 B.1.1. Portugal.................... 273 B.1.1. Slovak Republic............. 274 B.1.1. Sweden.................... 274 B.1.1. Turkey..................... 275 B.1.1. United States............... 275 Metadata related to tables A.1.1, A.1.2 and B.1.1 Migration flows in selected OECD countries 276 Inflows of asylum seekers..................................................... 280 A.1.3. Inflows of asylum seekers into OECD countries............................ 281 B.1.3. Australia................... 282 B.1.3. Austria..................... 282 B.1.3. Belgium.................... 283 B.1.3. Canada..................... 283 B.1.3. Switzerland................. 284 B.1.3. Czech Republic.............. 284 B.1.3. Denmark................... 285 B.1.3. Germany................... 285 B.1.3. Spain...................... 286 B.1.3. Finland..................... 286 B.1.3. France..................... 287 B.1.3. United Kingdom............. 287 B.1.3. Greece..................... 288 B.1.3. Hungary.................... 288 B.1.3. Ireland..................... 289 B.1.3. Italy....................... 289 B.1.3. Japan...................... 290 B.1.3. Korea...................... 290 B.1.3. Luxembourg................ 291 B.1.3. Netherlands................ 291 B.1.3. Norway.................... 292 B.1.3. New Zealand............... 292 B.1.3. Poland..................... 293 B.1.3. Portugal.................... 293 B.1.3. Slovak Republic............. 294 B.1.3. Sweden.................... 294 B.1.3. Turkey..................... 295 B.1.3. United States............... 295 Metadata related to tables A.1.3. and B.1.3. Inflows of asylum seekers.............. 296 Stocks of foreign and foreign-born population.................................... 297 A.1.4. Stocks of foreign-born population in OECD countries....................... 299 B.1.4. Australia................... 300 B.1.4. Austria..................... 300 B.1.4. Belgium.................... 301 B.1.4. Canada..................... 301 B.1.4. Switzerland................. 302 B.1.4. Denmark................... 302 B.1.4. Spain...................... 303 B.1.4. Finland..................... 303 B.1.4. France..................... 304 B.1.4. United Kingdom............. 304 B.1.4. Greece..................... 305 B.1.4. Hungary................... 305 B.1.4. Ireland..................... 306 B.1.4. Luxembourg................ 306 B.1.4. Mexico..................... 307 B.1.4. Netherlands................ 307 13
TABLE OF CONTENTS B.1.4. Norway.................... 308 B.1.4. New Zealand................ 308 B.1.4. Poland..................... 309 B.1.4. Portugal.................... 309 B.1.4. Slovak Republic............. 310 B.1.4. Sweden.................... 310 B.1.4. Turkey..................... 311 B.1.4. United States............... 311 Metadata related to tables A.1.4 and B.1.4. Foreign-born population................ 312 A.1.5. Stocks of foreign population in OECD countries............................ 314 B.1.5. Austria..................... 315 B.1.5. Ireland..................... 321 B.1.5. Belgium.................... 315 B.1.5. Switzerland................. 316 B.1.5. Czech Republic.............. 316 B.1.5. Germany................... 317 B.1.5. Denmark................... 317 B.1.5. Spain...................... 318 B.1.5. Finland..................... 318 B.1.5. France..................... 319 B.1.5. United Kingdom............. 319 B.1.5. Greece..................... 320 B.1.5. Hungary.................... 320 B.1.5. Italy....................... 321 B.1.5. Japan...................... 322 B.1.5. Korea...................... 322 B.1.5. Luxembourg................ 323 B.1.5. Netherlands................ 323 B.1.5. Norway.................... 324 B.1.5. Poland..................... 324 B.1.5. Portugal.................... 325 B.1.5. Slovak Republic............. 325 B.1.5. Sweden.................... 326 B.1.5. Turkey..................... 326 Metadata related to tables A.1.5. and B.1.5. Foreign population.................... 327 Acquisition of nationality..................................................... 329 A.1.6. Acquisition of nationality in OECD countries.................................. 330 B.1.6. Australia................... 331 B.1.6. Italy....................... 337 B.1.6. Austria..................... 331 B.1.6. Belgium.................... 332 B.1.6. Canada..................... 332 B.1.6. Switzerland................. 333 B.1.6. Czech Republic.............. 333 B.1.6. Germany................... 334 B.1.6. Denmark................... 334 B.1.6. Spain...................... 335 B.1.6. Finland..................... 335 B.1.6. France..................... 336 B.1.6. Hungary.................... 336 B.1.6. Ireland..................... 337 B.1.6. Japan...................... 338 B.1.6. Korea...................... 338 B.1.6. Luxembourg................ 339 B.1.6. Netherlands................ 339 B.1.6. Norway.................... 340 B.1.6. New Zealand................ 340 B.1.6. Poland..................... 341 B.1.6. Portugal.................... 341 B.1.6. Slovak Republic............. 342 B.1.6. Sweden.................... 342 B.1.6. Turkey..................... 343 B.1.6. United States............... 343 Metadata related to tables A.1.6. and B.1.6. Acquisition of nationality............... 344 Inflows of foreign workers.................................................... 345 A.2.1. Inflows of foreign workers into OECD countries............................ 346 Metadata related to table A.2.1. Inflows of foreign workers........................ 347 Stocks of foreign and foreign-born labour....................................... 349 A.2.2. Stocks of foreign-born labour force in OECD countries...................... 350 Metadata related to table A.2.2. Foreign-born labour force........................ 351 A.2.3. Stocks of foreign labour force in OECD countries........................... 352 Metadata related to table A.2.3. Foreign labour force............................. 353 14
International Migration Outlook SOPEMI 2010 OECD 2010 Editorial: Ensuring that Migrants are Onboard the Recovery Train 15
EDITORIAL: ENSURING THAT MIGRANTS ARE ONBOARD THE RECOVERY TRAIN The recent recession has slowed migration, especially that driven by labour demand. Yet, migration did not come to a halt in part because family and humanitarian movements are less sensitive to changes in labour market conditions, but also because of structural needs and demographic trends. Concealed behind a slack labour market, the ageing of the population is starting to reduce the working-age population in many countries. The crisis has also had the effect of throwing many immigrant workers out of work, at a higher rate than for native-born workers. Many were recent migrants, but not all. The road to steady employment for migrants in the past has often been a long one. With job loss, the return to such employment in the wake of the crisis could also be long. Add to this the fact that, even in good times, labour market integration for immigrants and their children in many OECD countries has not always met expectations. The current situation for immigrants, particularly youth, is a particularly difficult one. The sharpest decline in employment is observed among immigrant youth, particularly in the countries hardest hit by the crisis. There is a real threat that this will have a long-term negative impact on their integration outcomes. It is important to remember that migrants were contributors to the national economy when times were good; they should not be seen as a burden when times are bad. Those who are without work should be given equal opportunity with native-born unemployed to develop their skills and to re-integrate the ranks of the employed during the recovery. Jobs are the best insurance against social exclusion and marginalisation of migrants and their children. Employment contributes to their integration and to broader social cohesion. It also addresses the concerns of public opinion towards immigration. There is no escaping the fact that more labour migration will be needed in the future in many OECD countries as the recovery progresses and the current labour market slack is absorbed. There are several reasons for this, which it is useful to recall. More and more new jobs in OECD economies are highly skilled, but many countries are struggling to meet increasing demand for highly-skilled workers. Recruitment from abroad is one possible solution to which many countries will have recourse in the future as they did prior to the recent recession. Many lesser-skilled jobs are not finding enough takers among young entrants to the workforce. Immigrants are the ones who often have been taking on these jobs in food processing, cleaning, hotels, restaurants and construction. Without immigrants, services in these areas would be harder to obtain and prices higher. Personal care is another sector where there will be large labour needs, both to look after dependent older persons but also after children whose mothers wish to pursue their careers or enter the workforce. One likely source of workers in these occupations is the immigrant workforce. Public pensions and health-care systems are largely financed by the contributions of persons who are working. The drop in the birth rate which occurred in the 1970s means that there will not be enough workers to pay for the pensions of persons retiring and their 16
EDITORIAL: ENSURING THAT MIGRANTS ARE ONBOARD THE RECOVERY TRAIN additional health expenses. After raising the participation rate of the resident population, one way to reduce the need for higher taxes and pressure on public finances is to bring in immigrant workers, who contribute to pension and health-care regimes, but do not draw on them immediately. But participation rates in many OECD countries are already high. Although mobilising domestic labour resources is the best way to address expected declines in the working-age population, it may not be sufficient. Further increases to participation rates will be harder and harder to come by, making a greater recourse to labour migration likely. Under what circumstances is additional labour migration politically possible? There are two main requirements. The first is good outcomes for immigrants already here. The second is labour migration that corresponds to real labour market needs. Good labour force outcomes for immigrants are not just desirable. They are an imperative which OECD economies cannot afford to ignore. Immigrants need to be actively engaged in the labour market and to be as self-sufficient as native-born persons of comparable education and skill. This means that as the recovery train pulls out of the station and employment grows again, immigrants have to be on board. Demography should provide a helping hand, because more and more baby-boomers will be retiring every year. But this does not ensure that everybody will get on the train measures to address immigrant-specific obstacles to skill development, labour market entry and stable jobs need to be reinforced. Better language proficiency needs to be encouraged and financed good labour marketoriented training is costly, but a wise investment. Links to employers and to jobs, which immigrants have fewer of, must be fostered. Training for available jobs should be organised and adapted for immigrants as well as the native-born. In a world where labour is becoming scarcer, immigrants are a valuable resource and employers need to see this. Discrimination, whether based on prejudice or on inaccurate information, needs to be combated effectively. The recovery needs to be one for everyone, both immigrants and natives. As for new labour migration, more than ever this must be in accordance with real labour market needs. Tackling slack in the labour market should have priority: where resident unemployed workers are available or can be easily trained to fill a job, this should be the first option before workers are recruited from abroad. But it is admittedly not always easy to determine if this is the case. Safeguards can be introduced, by means of a close and regular monitoring of the labour market, by lowering the costs of domestic hiring (for example, via wage subsidy or training programmes) or by raising the costs of recruitment from abroad, and by more effective border control and workplace enforcement. Ensuring that both settled immigrants and newcomers to OECD countries from varied cultural and social backgrounds play a productive role requires good policies to ensure good outcomes. And immigrants productive role needs to be recognised as such. The crisis has not made it easier to achieve good outcomes, but in the face of an ageing future, this has become more necessary than ever before. John P. Martin Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs 17
International Migration Outlook SOPEMI 2010 OECD 2010 Introduction 19
INTRODUCTION 2010 edition of International Migration Outlook shows a slight drop in migration flows to the OECD Permanent-type legal immigration of foreign nationals (about 4.4 million) fell 6% in 2008, the first decline after 5 years of averaging 11% growth. However, this decline was mostly due to decreases in just a few countries, and also reflected the particularly high flows in 2007. Nonetheless, the decline in flows continued in 2009, with migration declining in most OECD countries as a result of the economic crisis. notably in free movement migration and family migration Migration within free movement areas accounted for about a quarter of all migration in the OECD in 2008, and 44% in Europe. In Norway, Switzerland, Austria and Denmark such migration accounts for well more than half of all migration. Among European countries, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom and Italy all appeared as important labour migration countries in 2008, with 20-30% of permanent-type immigrants arriving for work-related reasons. Elsewhere, except in Japan and Korea, family migration continues to dominate among the inflows of permanent-type immigrants. Family migration remains predominant in the United States (65%) and in France and Sweden. temporary migration remains important, although affected by the economic downturn Temporary migration had been growing since the mid-2000s, but started to decline in 2008, although this decline was most apparent in the temporary labour migration programmes. In 2008, over 2.3 million temporary labour migrants arrived in OECD countries, a 4% decline after four years of steady growth, and all signs are of further decline in 2009. Seasonal work, working holiday programmes, and intra-company transfers all saw increases in 2008, while other categories largely fixed-term labour migration declined. Temporary labour migration was also one of the first migration channels to be affected by the economic downturn. while the number of asylum seekers continues to rise Asylum seeking in OECD countries has been rising again since 2006. In 2008, the United States was the largest receiving country at 39 400, with France, Canada, the United Kingdom and Italy all over 30 000. Norway, Sweden and Switzerland are the main receiving countries in per-capita terms. Iraq, Serbia and Afghanistan are the most important countries of origin. 20
INTRODUCTION The increasing flows of international students lead to some permanent stay Overall the number of international students more than doubled between 2000 and 2007, to over 2 million; the United States and the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Australia are the main destination countries. The sharpest percentage increases have occurred in New Zealand, Korea, followed by the Netherlands, Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland. International students are a potential source of highly skilled labour migrants for OECD countries, and the International Migration Outlook provides a first attempt to analyse stay rates changes of status for those who do not renew their student permits. Using this method, the estimated stay rates vary between 15 and 35%, with an average of 21%. China accounts for 10% of the flows, Poland, India and Mexico less than half this The top twenty countries of origin in terms of inflows accounted for over half of all inflows in 2008, with China, Poland, India and Mexico at the top of the list. Compared to the flows seen in the late 1990s, the largest increases were from Colombia, China, Romania and Morocco. Since the year 2000, however, flows have been falling from the Philippines and the Russian Federation. Outflows of Poles to other European countries remained high in 2008. Much of the population growth and a substantial part of those entering the working-age population in many OECD countries in recent years was due to international migration If migration rates stay largely at their current levels, the working-age population in OECD countries will rise by 1.9% between 2010 and 2020, compared to the 8.6% growth seen between 2000 and 2010. Between 2003 and 2007, 59% of population growth was accounted for by migration. Immigrants represent up to a third of new entries to the working-age population, although the arrival of children and older immigrants reduces this contribution. Only in France, the United States and New Zealand was natural increase the main driver of population growth. For a number of countries in Southern Europe, Austria and the Czech Republic about 90% of population growth was due to migration. Yet more of the growth in employment has come from increased employment rates of residents rather than international migration Overall, 51% of employment growth has come from increases in the employment rate of residents, and 39% from international migration, with wide variations among OECD countries. Many of the countries which saw employment growth principally through greater mobilisation of the resident labour force were those with relatively high employment rates above 75% such as Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden. On the contrary, with the exception of the United Kingdom, those countries where employment growth came largely from external sources had employment rates below the OECD average. 21
INTRODUCTION This year s report provides a review of structural and institutional developments in migration policies... The focus on high-skilled migrants, including the use of points-based systems (Denmark, United Kingdom, Netherlands) continued, as did the shift in supply-driven systems towards favouring applicants with job offers in permanent programmes (Australia, Canada). While one country (Sweden) opened to migration by migrants of all skill levels, elsewhere the only opening to less skilled migration was in modifications to some seasonal work programmes to favour recourse to this form of temporary migration (Australia, Poland). including integration and naturalisation policies Changes in family reunification policies have tended to impose restrictive criteria, such as residency and income requirements. The use of language or civics tests as a precondition for family reunification and for naturalisation continues to expand. Some changes can be specifically related to the crisis In 2008-2009, a number of new migration policy initiatives aimed at dealing with the challenges posed by the economic downturn. Labour migration channels were examined closely, and criteria for admission refined, in a number of OECD countries. Provisions for unemployed migrants unable to renew temporary permits were adopted (Spain, Ireland), and assistance provided for their return (Spain, Japan, Czech Republic). Some quotas were cut (Italy, Korea, Spain, Australia). The report looks at the disproportionate impact of the economic crisis on employment of immigrants in the OECD The rise in unemployment between 2008 and 2009 was higher among the foreign-born than among the native-born in almost all OECD countries. Similarly, in most OECD countries, employment rates fell further for the foreign-born than for the nativeborn, although in several countries the impact was counteracted by rising participation rates among immigrants. While total native-born employment decreased in almost all OECD countries during the downturn, a number of countries saw significant increases in total employment of the foreign-born. Even so, the rise in employment did not keep pace with the increase in the size of the foreign-born labour force due to continuing inflows. Young migrants are particularly affected In most OECD countries, foreign-born youth have seen steeper drops in employment than native-born youth. While the overall decrease in employment for youth (15-24) was 7% in 22
INTRODUCTION the year following the second quarter of 2008, the decline was as much as twice for immigrant youth. Unemployment was already high among immigrant youth, and in 2009 stood at 15% in the United States, 20% in Canada and 24% in the EU15. Because the rapid integration of youth and recently arrived immigrants into the labour market has been identified as one of the key determinants for their long-term integration, low employment rates are worrying. A recession carries the risk of scarring effects, as immigrants who have not managed to get employed quickly after arrival may be stigmatised in the labour market. Language, training, mentoring and apprenticeships appear particularly important policy responses to reinforce during a downturn.... although immigrant women have been faring better than men Foreign-born women have been less affected by the crisis than men, as the latter are concentrated in the sectors which suffered the most (construction, manufacturing, finance). In all countries but Belgium and Hungary, the unemployment rate of foreign-born women increased less than that of their male counterparts. In some countries, foreignborn women have increased their participation rate, as usually occurs to compensate for income loss by male members of their families. The factors which make immigrants vulnerable to job loss also make it more difficult for active labour market policies to reach them The report examines the determinants of the recent labour market outcomes of immigrants. They tend to be overrepresented in sectors sensitive to economic fluctuations, generally have less secure contractual arrangements and are more often in temporary jobs, have less tenure in the job, and may be subject to selective lay-offs. Immigrants may de facto be excluded from certain measures where eligibility is explicitly or implicitly linked to the duration of stay in the country or to administrative status, such as public-sector job schemes, or those requiring minimum tenure or permanent contracts. The report identifies some areas where policy can help reduce the negative long-term effects on the employment of immigrants. Two special chapters deal with topical issues Two particularly salient issues are covered in special chapters. The first examines how public opinion regarding immigration is shaped. The second examines the determinants and labour market impact of naturalisation. the first special chapter addresses the issue of public opinion and migration This chapter analyses a number of opinion surveys over the past decade and presents new empirical findings about the shaping of public opinion on immigration. The role of individual characteristics both in shaping opinions about the economic and cultural consequences of 23