Political Science 190: Diplomacy and Negotiation Professor Zeev Maoz Winter 2005 zmaoz@ucdavis.edu Office Hours M,W 2:00-3:00 246 Social Sciences Course Website: 1. General Information This course reviews the theory of practice of diplomacy and international negotiations. It covers general theoretical approaches and ideas applied by scholars and practitioners to explain how professional diplomats and political leaders go about the business of conducting foreign policy through diplomatic means. We will discuss several theoretical approaches to the study of negotiation, including: Traditional Approaches. Approaches emphasizing historical analysis, comparative study of diplomatic practices and processes of negotiation and significant stages of negotiation processes. Rational Choice Perspectives. We will focus on fundamentals in decision theory, game theory and their insights about negotiations, in general, and about international negotiations, in particular. Psychological Perspectives. These perspectives explore the role of the personalities of the participants in negotiation processes, the impact of the groups and situations in which negotiations take place on the outcome of negotiations. International Mediation. Here we will examine why, when, and how third parties intervene in ongoing negotiation or conflict situation in order to help the principals reach an agreement. In order to illustrate how each of these approaches helps us understand how states handle their diplomatic dilemmas, we will use throughout the course a number of historical and contemporary case studies. These cases are: Hitler s Crises. From his rise to power in 1933 to the outbreak of World War II, Adolf Hitler changed the European political landscape through a series of crises. We will use several of these crises to illustrate several key issues in diplomacy and negotiation: the 1934 Austrian Crisis, the 1936 Rhineland Crisis, the 1938 Sudetenland Crisis, and the 1939 Czechoslovakia and Danzing Crises. The Vietnam Negotiations. While the Vietnam War was raging, American, South Vietnamese, Vietkong, and North Vietnamese negotiators met in Paris for a period of nearly five years, in an effort to bring an end to the war. This case is an interesting example of negotiating while fighting. The Arab-Israeli Peace Process, 1973-2000. This is a process that entailed both significant successes (e.g., the Israeli-Egyptian agreements up to the peace treaty of 1979, the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty of 1994), as well as questionable agreements
Diplomacy and Negotiation 2 (e.g., the Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995), and outright failures (the Israeli-Syrian negotiations, the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations of Camp David in July 2000). The Two Gulf Crises. Negotiations are considered as a means of resolving or managing conflicts. In the two gulf Crises (of 1990-91 and 2002-03), we will see how negotiations were used to build up war coalitions, and why they succeeded in one case (1990-91) and failed in the other case (2002-03). 2. Course Requirements Midterm: 30% of the final grade Term paper: 30% of final grade Cumulative Final Exam: 40% of final grade 3. Course Structure The class meets twice a week on Mondays and Wednesdays. The Monday sessions will be devoted to discussion of a specific aspect of theories of diplomacy and negotiations. Each Wednesday session (starting with the second week of the semester) will be devoted to the application of these approaches on one or more of the historical cases. 4. Core Readings Required Book: Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George 1995. Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Problems of Our times (third edition). New York: Oxford University Press (Hereafter Craig and George, 1995). Recommended: G. R. Berridge, Maureen Keens-Soper, and T.G. Otte 2001. Diplomatic Theory from Machiavelli to Kissinger. New York: Palgrave (Hereafter, Berridge et al., 2001). 5. Useful Sources for Historical Case Studies Note: These books will be placed on reserve in the library. Some parts of these books will be available in the course pack.
Diplomacy and Negotiation 3 The Hitler Crises, 1933-39 Alan Shirer 1965. The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany. New York: Simon and Schuster. Joachim Fest 1974. Hitler. New York: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich. Gerhard L. Weinberg 1970. The Foreign Policy of Hitler s Germany, 1933-1936: Diplomatic Revolution in Europe. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Gerhard Weinberg 1980. The Foreign Policy of Hitler s Germany, 1937-1939: Starting World War Two. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. A. J. P. Taylor. 1961. The Origins of the Second World War. London: H. Hamilton. The Vietnam Negotiations Henry A. Kissinger 1979. White House Years. Boston: Little, Brown. Henry A. Kissinger 2003. Ending the Vietnam War: A History of America s Involvement in and Extrication from the Vietnam War. New York: Simon and Schuster. Alan Goodman 1994. The Lost Peace: America s Search for a Negotiated Settlement of the Vietnam War. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press. The Arab-Israeli Peace Process Henry Kissinger 1982. Years of Upheaval. New York: A.A. Knopf. Anwar Sadat 1978. In Search of Identity. New York: Harper and Row. Moshe Dayan 1981. Breakthrough: A Personal Account of the Egypt-Israel Peace Negotiations. New York: Simon and Schuster. William B. Quandt 1986. Camp David: Peacemaking and Politics. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. William B. Quandt 2001. Peace Process: American Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Conflict Since 1967. Berkeley and Los Angeles.: University of California Press. Muhammad Ibrahim Kamel 1986. The Camp David Accords: A Personal Testimony. London: KPI Press. Itamar Rabinovich 1998. The Brink of Peace: Israeli-Syrian Negotiations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Diplomacy and Negotiation 4 Mark Tessler 1994. The History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press. Shlaim, Avi 2001. The Iron Wall. New York: W. W. Norton. Morris, Benny 2001. Rigtheous Victims: A History of the Zionist-Arab Conflict, 1881-2001. New York: Vintage Books. Dennis Ross 2004. The Missing Peace: The Inside Story for the Fight for Middle East Peace. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux. The Gulf Crises of 1990-91 and 2002-03 Stanley Renshon 1993. The Political Psychology of the Gulf War: Leaders, Publics, and the Process of Conflict. James A. Baker 1995. The Politics of Diplomacy: Revolution, War, and Peace. New York: G.P. Putnam. Efraim Karsh and Lawrence L. Friedman 1993. The Gulf Conflict, 1990-91: Diplomacy and War in the New World Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 6. Course Schedule January 5: I. Introduction Content and Structure of the Course: General overview of the course and its contents. Discussion of assignments and simulation requirements. No Readings for first class: January 10: The History of Diplomacy and Diplomatic Practice. What is diplomacy? How was it practiced in the past? How did diplomacy and diplomatic practices change over time? What is the nature of the new diplomacy? What are the functions of diplomats and how have these functions changed over time? Required Readings: Craig and George, pp. 15-52, 102-151. Berridge et al., 2001, pp. 106-124, 151-180. Recommended: Abba Eban 1983. The New Diplomacy: International Affairs in the Modern Age. New York: A.A. Knopf, pp. 1-31. January 12: I. Traditional Approaches to Diplomacy and Negotiation. The evolution of thinking on diplomacy and negotiation. The functions of negotiation. Approaches to negotiation: redistribution versus integration. Required Readings: Craig and George, pp. 153-179. Berridge et al., pp. 181-203. I. William Zartman 2002. The Structure of Negotiation. In Victor A. Kremenyuk (ed.). International Negotiations. San Fracisco: Jossey Bass, pp. 71-84.
Diplomacy and Negotiation 5 January 19: Prenegotiations How negotiators get to the point and how long it takes them to get there. Required Readings: I. William Zartman 1989. Prenegotiations: Phases and Functions, International Journal, 44(2): 237-253. Janice Gross Stein 1989. Getting to the Table: The Triggers, Functions, Stages, and Consequences of Prenegotiation. International Journal, 44(2): 475-504. Recommended: P.R. Barston. 1997. Modern Diplomacy. New York: Longman, pp. 1-8, 43-102. January 21: Concepts and Propositions of Traditional Approaches Applied to History: The Art of Pre-Negotiation in Practice. During this session we will discuss how prenegotiation was used as a bargaining device by diplomats in historical cases. The cases to be discussed are: a. Hitler s tactics of intimidation in prenegotiations: The Anschluss Crisis of 1938 and the Czechoslovakia Crisis of March 1939. b. The first year of the Paris Peace Talks, 1968-1969. c. The Question of Palestinian representation during the 1989-93 period. d. The struggle over the world s public opinion during the Gulf Crises. a. Shirer (1961), Fest (1974) and Weinberg (1980) on the Anschluss and the Czechoslovakia crises. b. Kissinger (1979) and Goodman (1994) on the Paris negotiations. c. Ross (2004) on the Palestinian representation issue. d. Baker (1995) and Karsh and Friedman (1993) on the Kuwait Crisis. January 24 and 26: Rational Explanations of Negotiations. We will start with decision theoretic approaches, then we move on to basic game theoretic approaches. We will examine how rational actors are supposed to negotiate, and why in some cases being very smart does not provide you with good results. Required Readings: Howard Raiffa 2002. Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, pp. 3-96. Zeev Maoz 1990. Paradoxes of War: On the Art of National Self-Entrapment. Boston: Unwin Hymann, Ch. 4.
Diplomacy and Negotiation 6 January 31: Application of Rational Choice Approaches to Historical Cases: We will attempt to account for actors behavior in terms of strategic interactions described by games and/or decision analytic approaches. The following cases will be examined: a. The remilitarization of the Rhineland (1936). b. The Christmas bombing and the January 1973 agreement in Vietnam. c. Israel-Jordan peace treaty of 1994. d. Rational escalation in the Gulf Crises. a. Same sources as in January 12 session. b. Kennedy School case study on the 1990 Gulf crisis. Purchase from KSG on line @$2.45. URL: http://www.ksgcase.harvard.edu/case.htm?pid=1264. February 2: Midterm Exam. February 7: Psychological Approaches to Negotiations: Personality, Setting, Audience, and Group Factors. How do the personalities of the negotiators affect their behavior? How are negotiations affected by the type of setting in which they take place, the presence or absence of audiences, and the structures of the negotiating groups? The general emphasis will be on how psychological factors may cause negotiations to go off the rational track and reach unwanted consequences due to behavioral and perceptual shortcomings. Required Readings: Craig and George (1995), pp. 180-244. Raiffa (2002), pp. 389-429. Dean G. Pruitt 1989. Negotiation Behavior. New York: Academic Press, 1981. February 9: The Psychology of Negotiation in Practice: Historical Applications. The following cases will be compared. a. The Munich Crisis of 1938 b. The psychology of defeat in Vietnam c. The implementation of the Oslo accords in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process d. This Will Not Pass. Negotiating for war. Twice. The two Gulf War cases. Readings: Shirer (1960), Weinberg (1980) on Munich Goodman (1994) and Zeev Maoz 1990. Paradoxes of War, Ch. 9: Losers Paradoxes. On the Vietnam negotiations. Shlaim (2000) and Ross (2004) on the Oslo process. Karsh and Friedman (1993) and Baker (1995) on the first Gulf War. February 14: Mediation Analysis. Why and how third parties intervene. What are the attributes and strategies of mediators and under what conditions would mediation prove useful. What happens when mediation fails?
Diplomacy and Negotiation 7 Required Readings: Jacob Bercovitch (ed) 2002. Studies in International Mediation. New York: Palgrave, pp. 1-53. February 16: Mediation Analysis Applied. The following cases will be analyzed. a. American and Italian Mediation in the Munich Crisis b. U.S. Mediation in the Middle East the post 1973 War agreements, the Camp David Accord of 1978, American mediation in the Israeli-Syrian negotiations. President Clinton s mediation in Camp David, July 2000. Readings: Shirer (1960), Fest (1974), Weinberg (1980) for the Munich Crisis. Quandt (1986); Kamel (1986); Dayan (1981) for Camp David Accords; Quandt (2001), Rabinovich (1998) for the Israeli-Syrian negotiations; Shlaim (2000); Morris (2001), Tessler (1994) for the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. February 21: Multilateral Diplomacy Many Players, Many Issues. Negotiations among several actors that entail multiple issues increase substantially the complexity of negotiation and diplomacy. How can international agreements emerge when different players have different interests, different priorities, and different levels of power over the issues at stake? To what extent do the principles of bilateral negotiations apply to multilateral negotiations; to what extent to single-issue negotiating strategies apply to multi-issue negotiations? Required Readings: Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampso, and Pamela All 1999. Herding Cats: Multiparty Mediation in a Complex World. Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, pp. 1-62. Raiffa (2002), pp. 385-430. February 23: Multilateral Diplomacy in Practice: Historical Applications The cases analyzed here include: A. The Madrid Conference of 1991. B. The coalition building prior to the Gulf War of 1991. Readings: Baker (1995), Ross (2004) Susan Rosegrant and Michael D. Watkins 1994. Building A Coalition for War, Kennedy School of Government Case Study. Can be purchased ($2.45) at. http://www.ksgcase.harvard.edu/case.htm?pid=1264.
Diplomacy and Negotiation 8 Karsh and Friedman (1993). February 28: Integrative Bargaining and Two-Level Diplomacy: Integrative bargaining entails trying to reach an agreement with an adversary while pleasing an internal constituency. The negotiator must operate on two levels simultaneously. She must haggle with the adversary, and must find an agreement that satisfies her constituency. How are these complexities handled? How should they be handled? Required Readings: Robert D. Putnam 1988. Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two Level Games. International Organization, vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 427-460. Norris M. Ripsman 2002. Peacemaking by Democracies: The Effect of State Autonomy on the Post- World War Settlements. University Park, PA: Penn State University Press, pp. 27-62, 221-240. March 2: Integrative Bargaining in Practice Cases Examined: A. Vietnam Peace Negotiations B. Israeli Politics and the Oslo Accords. Readings: Kissinger (2003), Morris (2001). March 7: Negotiating with Terrorists. Required Readings. Margaret A. Wilson 2000. Toward a Model of Terrorist Behavior in Hostage Taking Incidents. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(4): 403-424. March 9: International Organizations as Bargaining Instruments Required Readings: Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler, and Pamela All 1999. Rising to the Challenge of Multiparty Mediation. In Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler, and Pamela All (eds). Herding Cats, pp. 665-699. Term Paper Due. March 14: Conclusion and Review Session. No Readings.
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