LEAVE NO ONE BEHIND Disaster Resilience for Sustainable Development Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2017
Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2017 Poverty Hunger Connecting the dots Disasters Inequality Coherence of SDGs/Sendai Framework Policy Tools Actions Climate variability/change Conflict
Message #1 Disaster risk is outpacing resilience.
Human cost significant, while economic cost rising Asia-Pacific: Human cost of natural disasters, 1970 2016 Estimated damage, as % of GDP, is rising in the Asia-Pacific region Flood 10% Storm 37% Others 8% Asia-Pacific 2,038,976 Earthquake/ Tsunami 45% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2 million lives lost (56% of global fatalities) 88 % of people affected in the world Asia and the Pacific Rest of the World Economic cost: Asia-Pacific has lost $1.3 trillion due to natural disasters (1970-2016)
Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey Damage and future estimates in South and South-West Asian countries 2.5% Damage per year2000-2016 (% of GDP) 3.5% Average annual loss by 2030 (% of GDP) 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Earthquake Flood Extreme temperature Storm Earthquake Wind Others Flood
Message #2 Hazards are intensifying with transboundary geographical shifts.
Transboundary flooding (Scenarios 2010 and 2030) $5.2B $1.5B $1B Indus China, Pakistan and India $34.7B $1.9B $1B $0.9B $1.5B $1B $0.9B Amur China and Russian Federation A substantial increase in flood losses under both moderate and severe climate scenarios. $16.5B $6.3B Mekong Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam China, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan will experience two to three times more in flood losses Ganges-Bramaputra-Meghna Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and India The transboundary flood losses will range from 1.2 to 6 times more in the major river-basins
Tropical cyclone increasing complexity Tropical cyclones will have shorter return periods with increasing storm surges and wind speeds. In the Pacific basin, the track of tropical cyclones may shift eastward or northward. Three times increase in the number of people and economic assets exposed
Drought severity by 2030 Drought risk will increase substantially and there will be significant shifts in its geography. In South Asia, westward shift and in South East Asia, eastward. The new geography of drought will cause deep uncertainties on how to manage the risk.
Message #3 Increased scale, and more transboundary impacts on vulnerability and hunger
Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 2 months Jun Sep 2015 3 months May - Sep 2016 5 months Apr May 2015 1 month Apr - Jun 2016 2 months ASI (%) <10 10-25 25-40 40-55 55-70 70-85 >= 85 Jan - Mar 2015 2 months Nov 2015 - Mar 2016 4 months Oct 2016 - Jan 2017 4 months Mar - Apr 2016 1.5 months Apr - Jul 2016 4 months El Nino and monsoon variability intensify the risk of extreme weather, slow onset disasters Off season no data no seasons no cropland Nov 2015 - Feb 2016 3 months Mar Aug -2015 5 months Feb - Jul 2016 4 months Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) % of cropland area affected by drought per GAUL 2 region May Oct 2015 5 months Non-cropland pixels excluded METOP-AVHRR WGS84, Geographic Lat/Lon Source: Global Information and Early Warning System of Food and Agriculture (GIEWS), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 2015/2016 El Nino triggered severe weather anomalies and impacted 28 countries of Asia-Pacific
Region s hunger and climate variability is wide-spread and critical 2015 scenario 2050 scenario
Message #4 Disasters keep people in poverty, push people into poverty and transmit intergenerational poverty
Disasters cause the near poor those living on between $1.90 and $3.10 per day to fall into poverty. Pakistan, 2011, Floods 35.60% Philippines, 2013, Cyclone Haiyan Fiji, 2016, Cyclone Winston Sri Lanka, 2016, Floods and Landslides Vanuatu, 2015, Cyclone Pam 14.50% 12.60% 2.30% 23.60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% In Asia-Pacific, 400 million people live in extreme poverty under $1.90 per day poverty line, while 36 per cent of the population live close to the poverty line, on less than $3.10 per day Population that can potentially slip below poverty
Enrollment Disasters and the poverty trap $1 in asset losses results in larger well-being losses for the poor 80% 75% 70% 65% 2005 Earthquake 2010 Floods 2011 Floods 60% 55% 50% Year Primary school enrolment dropped after disasters in Pakistan
Child wasting and underweight in Jagatsinghpur district, Odisha, India
Disasters and poverty in the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna basin
Message #5 Disasters widen inequality
Population (millions) Nexus of disaster and inequality The disproportionate impacts of disasters on income, assets and well-being losses on poorer countries and people widen inequalities. In megacities, 56 per cent of the populations with medium or high levels of inequality are located in extreme disaster risk areas. The results are similar for smaller cities. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Megacities of 10 million or more Extreme High Low Disaster risk classification, Multi-hazard Low inequality (Gini index 20-29) Medium inequality (Gini index 30-39) High inequality (Gini index 40-49)
Population increase of more than 50 per cent in 26 cities in extreme high risk areas
Message #6 There is a growing nexus of disaster, poverty, inequality and conflict
Disaster-poverty-inequality and conflict Disasters bring unstable economic conditions that can exacerbate heighten social exclusion creating fertile ground for conflict. Conflicts undermine the capacity and commitment of states to prevent natural disasters and humanitarian crises. Conflict risk profiles (INFORM index) Localized conflict incidents, 1991 2015 Afghanistan Pakistan Myanmar Papua New Guinea India Bangladesh Korea DPR Nepal Turkey Iran Solomon Islands Philippines Azerbaijan Russian Federation Cambodia 7.8 6.6 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Pathway to Prevention Addressing Social Inequality Addressing Migration Challenges Dialogue and Peace Building Intergovernmental Platform Managing Climate Risk (Drought, Flood) Managing Natural Resources, Effective and inclusive
Message #8 Policies, actions and tools for resilience reinforce sustainable development SDG 1.5 Resilience of the poor SDG 2.4 Resilience agriculture SDG 11.5 Reduce disaster deaths and affected SDG 11.b Urban resilience SDG 13.1 Resilience to CC and disasters SDG 16.1 Reduce all forms of violence
Sendai Framework for DRR Opportunity to get it right Addis Ababa Action Agenda 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Resilience is a common thread Global development frameworks New Urban Agenda Paris Agreement on Climate Change Agenda for Humanity
Call for action at regional level Regional early warning systems Thematic Issue Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Sharing data and knowledge Building regional capacity
Invest in disaster risk reduction Deaths from tropical cyclones hitting Bangladesh (1970-2017) 1,000,000 100,000 300,000 138,866 10,000 4,275 1,000 100 10 197 28 9 1 1970 (Bhola) 1991 (Tropical, no name) 2007 (Sidr) 2009 (Aila) 2016 (Vardah) 2017 (Mora)
Early warning to early action: Impact based forecasts Trigger Probabilistic Forecast Risk Scenarios Impact Outlook
Thank you! For more information: Sanjay Srivastava Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction ESCAP srivastavas@un.org