Globalization and Selecting the Best and the Brightest Immigrants February 2010 B. Lindsay Lowell, PhD Director of Policy Studies Institute for the Study of International Migration (ISIM) Georgetown University Washington, DC USA Email: lowellbl@georgetown Web: ISIM@georgetown.edu.edu Presentation to Immigration Policy: Highly Skilled Workers and U.S. Competitiveness and Innovation, Brookings Institute, Wsahington D.C.
Synopsis Past skilled migration numbers have been generous, and the likely future is that the relative number of skilled immigrants will remain generous. Immigrants make solid contributions, but targeted policy is needed to attract the best and the brightest. The challenge is to create policies and incentives that are competitive and targeted to select the truly best and brightest.
Do we admit too few STEM workers? Evidence of past shortages in STEM If supply is inadequate, has high demand resulted in large wage gains? Evidence of numerical restriction Are immigrant shares of skilled workers small? Projects of future shortages Will current levels of STEM immigration meet projected employment?
Foreign-Born Share of Education and Age Group, 2003 45 Percent of all persons 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Doctorate Professional Master's Bachelor's 0 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 Source: Lowell, tabulations NSCG03 microdata
Foreign Student (F) State Visa Issuances & IIE Enrollments, All Fs & without China 2000-2009 700,000 ENROLLMENT 600,000 Linear F Enrollments 500,000 w/out China 400,000 VISAS 300,000 Linear F Visas 200,000 w/out China 100,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: State Dept., Open Doors
STEM workers experienced negative wage changes. [This] is striking These occupations had by far the largest increase in relative demand it is difficult to understand... Lemieux, T. The Changing Nature of Wage Inequality.
BLS projection computing & engineering jobs: estimated trend supply of natives and residual supply of immigrants ( ~ current avg inflow) 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Foreign born, 18% Foreign born, net of BLS total and native supply Native born, at growth rate of college labor force Foreign born, 24% 2007 2009 2012 2017 Source: BLS occupational projections and author's estimates
What Effect does Globalization have on Skilled Migration? Incentives and the drivers of migration Do high costs & risks select for better STEM workers? The elite Nobel prize winners The rest STEM workforce
Nobel Prize Winners Nobel laureates are the cream of the crop. Decline in immigrant share of Nobel prizes over time (globalization); today, immigrants are less likely to be Nobel winners than natives. Hunter et al. 2009
Foreign-Born of Nobel Laureates Percent of all laureates 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1947-1966 1967-1986 1978-2006 Source: Hunter et al., 2009.
Foreign-Born of Nobel Laureates and STEM PhDs Percent of all laureates Percent of PhD STEM 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1947-1966 1967-1986 1978-2006 Source: Hunter et al., 2009, and author's calculations 30 year old PhDs
Foreign STEM workers Making migration pay Migrants are better educated than natives, in STEM foreign workers need the degree to compete; migrants advantage has lessened over time, both in terms of education & pay (globalization). Lowell, tabulations of US Census data
Comparative college education: ratio immigrant to natives BS+, 1950-2009 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 Life and physical sciences Engineers 1.25 1.20 1.15 Mathematicians and information technology 1.10 1.05 1.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 Source: US Census microdata
Comparative earnings: ratio foreign to natives, 1950-2000 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 Life and physical sciences Engineers Mathematicians and information technology 0.85 0.80 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: US Census microdata
Are Immigrants uniquely Innovative? Do immigrants generate jobs, is the law of supply and demand old hat? These data imply that a one percentage point rise in the share of immigrant college graduates in the population increases patents per capita by 6%. Hunt, 2008. How much does Immigration Boost Innovation? We find that about 16% of the companies had at least one foreign-born person among the founding team. This estimate is lower than that found in most previous studies. Hart et al., 2009. High-tech Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States.
Immigrant corporate leadership Are immigrants more likely than natives to run their own or manage high tech business? How many STEM workers need be admitted to find these stars?
25 Foreign-born share of owners, top management and STEM workers in ICT industries, USA 2005-2007 Foreign-born percent of each 20 15 10 5 0 Self-employed, CEO or Business Manager STEM worker Source: ACS microdata. Foreign-born share of owners, top management and STEM workers in ICT industries, Silicon Valley 2005-2007 Foreign-born percent of each 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Self-employed, CEO or Business Manager STEM worker Source: ACS microdata.
PHILOSOPHIES OF ADMISSION (1) Set large admission numbers & let the visa market self-regulate Approach of Senate S.2611 and current round of reform Assumes that STEM degree is a measure of quality Assumes that employer sponsorship ensures quality (2) Long-term strategies should target optimal numbers A limited number of high quality workers are available abroad High numbers can undermine domestic supply High numbers may undermine the quality of foreign supply (3) Long-term strategies should restrict numbers The U.S. has an over-supply of highly skilled workers Restricted supply of immigrants will boost wages & domestic supply Domestic supply confers greatest competitive advantage