Peace III Workshop 1 The Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report 2013 The Playhouse Theatre, 14 May
Peace Monitoring Report 2 Key Findings Paul Nolan
What are we trying to measure? How extensive is the peace? How durable is it? What are the stresses within the society? Is it a permanent peace or a generational truce? 3
The sense of security Equality Political progress Cohesion and sharing The indicator framework 4
No storm coming 5
2012 It was the springtime of hope..
2012 and the winter of despair
The economic context 8
Employment projections Recovery to 2008 levels of employment is not likely to occur before 2025 9 - Oxford Economics
UK Average: 71.2% N.Ireland: 67.5% The employment rate 10
Net fiscal balance 2010/11 11 NI tax revenue: 12.7b Treasury: 10.5b Total: 23.2b 55% 45% 1 2
The NI subvention some perspectives
The ten key points 1. The underlying momentum of the peace process was strong in 2012
Crime Perhaps the most peaceful year for 40 years Crime was at its lowest since 1998/99 NI Crime Survey shows 11.2% of households victims of a crime compared with 21.3% in England and Wales
The fall-off in hate crime
Chart Deaths
Security statistics
Security statistics
Fatalities in perspective Security-related: 2 Agricultural accidents: 12 Road deaths: 59 Suicide: 313
The rise in suicide
The past The past is not only a problem for individuals. It is a problem for the society as a whole.
2. Northern Ireland is now a society made up of minorities
The 2011 census The slow movements in populations shift are responsible for the most profound changes in history - John Maynard Keynes
2011 Census Protestant: 48% Catholic: 45% Other: 7%
1911 census The nine-county Ulster: Protestant: 57% Catholic: 43%
The 1926 census Protestants: 66% Catholics: 34%
The 2001 census Protestants: 53% Catholics: 44%
50 years of demographic change
Demographic change
Age cohorts Over 60: Protestants: 62% Catholics: 38% School census: Protestant: 37% Catholic:51% Other: 12%
National identities British: 40% Irish: 25% Northern Irish: 21% Two or more: 9% Other: 5%
Passports British: 57% Irish: 19% No passport: 19% Other: 5%
Preferences for a united Ireland 2010 NI Life and Times Survey: 16% Belfast Telegraph/Lucid Talk poll: 25% (UI within 20 years) Spotlight/IPSOS Mori, January 2013: 17%
We are all minorities now Dominance is not an option, but the desire for dominance continues to unsettle the society.
3. We are more at ease with difference
The new communities
The new communities 10,000 Figure 3.1: Estimated Net International Migration (July 2000-June 2011) Estimated Net International Migration 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000 Jul 00 - Jun 01 Jul 01 - Jun 02 Jul 02 - Jun 03 Jul 03 - Jun 04 Jul 04 - Jun 05 Jul 05 - Jun 06 Jul 06 - Jun 07 Jul 07 - Jun 08 Jul 08 - Jun 09 Jul 09 - Jun 10 Jul 10 - Jun 11 Time Period
The new communities Between July 2000 and June 2010 122,000 long-term immigrants arrived in Northern Ireland. Source: Migrants in Northern Ireland An Update Research and Information Service, NI Assembly
We are more at ease with difference Ethnic: 1.8% A8 population: 2% Foreign nationals: 11%
Here to stay Births to foreign mothers: 10% Post primary: 2% Primary: 3%
The settlement patterns
Racist hate crime
The new heterogeneity
Mateusz Jadczak 44
4. The Assembly has faltered as a legislative chamber
The number of bills enacted
5. The real debates on sovereignty are taking place elsewhere
The referendum on Scottish independence
The referendum on Europe
The fragility of the peace process has increased because of the continuing absence of a policy on division 6.
7. Some paramilitaries have been marginalised, others have been granted a degree of legitimation.
Some paramilitaries have been legitimated The pan-unionist alliance
Standing together?
8. The flags dispute has exposed the alienation of a section of the Protestant working class
Loyalist alienation
Not Drumcree
Not the Anglo-Irish Agreement
9. There has been a decline in residential segregation
Decline of single identity wards Percentage of single identity wards 2001: 50.5% 2011: 37.1%
Increase in wards with no majority over 50% 2001: 2.2% 2011: 4.8%
Ward changes 21 wards have changed community character All from Protestant to Catholic
The 10 most affluent wards 1 Wallace Park 6 Jordanstown 62 2 Hillfoot 7 Stormont 3 Cairnshill 8 Ballymacash 4 Knockbracken 9 Bluefield 5 Gilnahirk 10 Galwally
The 10 most affluent wards 1 Wallace Park 6 Jordanstown 63 2 Hillfoot 7 Stormont 3 Cairnshill 8 Ballymacash 4 Knockbracken 9 Bluefield 5 Gilnahirk 10 Galwally
10. Inequalities remain but are perceived differently
The measure of inequality A male in Whiterock in west Belfast can expect to live 12 years less than a male in Wallace Park, Lisburn.
Inequalities Households in poverty: Protestants: 17% Catholics: 22%
Deprivation indices ( Family Resources Survey, 2013) Protestant Catholic Replace worn-out furniture 31% 55% Not fall behind in one or more household bill Money to spend on yourself ( not on your family) 34% 56% 33% 55%
Inequalities Youth unemployment: Protestant: 15% Catholic: 20%
Education inequalities
Education inequalities Success at A-level (A*-E) Catholic girls not on free school meals: 66.2% Protestant boys on free school meals: 13.4%
Areas with lowest educational attainment 1 Shankill 6 Ballymacarrett 2 Crumlin 7 The Mount 3 Woodvale 8 Whiterock 4 Falls 9 Duncairn 5 Dunnaney 10 Shaftesbury
Higher education Gender balance Female: 58% Male: 42%
Higher education in NI Protestants: 30% Catholics: 41%
Changes in the labour market
How much have our lives improved? The lives of Catholics: 42 The lives of Protestants: 6 Source: Survey by John Garry, QUB, 2013
The Mount Protestant Catholic Other 2001 90% 4% 6% 2011 68% 16% 16%
Loyalist discontent The power of narratives
The power of evidence?