FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 5, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Republican Hill leads Bullock by one for MT-Gov. Raleigh, N.C. Of two potential Montana Democratic gubernatorial candidates and four Republicans, likely Democratic nominee is the best-known and by far the best-liked, and his popularity has only grown in the five months since PPP last polled the race. But because of the state s Republican leanings, he remains down to his most likely Republican opponent, Rick Hill. Bullock lags Hill by only one point (39-38), but that is hardly a change from June (39-37). This is despite the fact that Bullock s favorability spread has grown from an already solid 28-34-17, while Hill s has remained equally in the red as before (22-27 versus 20-25). Bullock is more familiar to his base than Hill to his, so more Republicans (19%) are undecided than Democrats (13%). Thus, Hill could expand his lead unless Bullock can cut into the GOP vote or rack up a lead with independents. He leads by one point with them now, and 35% are undecided. Each candidate is pulling 6% of the opposite party. Last Wednesday, PPP showed that Rick Hill was a solid favorite for the GOP nomination. Bullock has an even more dominant lead on the Democratic side of the ledger, topping, 70-6. If Hill were somehow denied the nomination, Bullock would lead the other three Republicans tested (Jeff Essmann, Neil Livingstone, and Ken Miller) by 11 or 12 points. Jent would trail Essmann and Livingstone by four, Miller by eight, and Hill by 13. is a strong candidate for the Democrats, but the Republicans have a generic edge, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. PPP surveyed 1,625 Montana voters, including 573 usual Democratic primary voters, from November 28 th to 30 th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-2.4%, and +/- 4.1% for the Democratic primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
Montana Survey Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?...34%...17%...49% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeff Essmann?... 8%...20%...72% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Hill?...22%...27%...51% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?... 7%...19%...74% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Neil Livingstone?... 5%...19%...76% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Miller?...10%...17%...72% Q7 Q8 Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Jeff Essmann, who would you vote for?...42% Jeff Essmann...30% Undecided...28% If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Rick Hill, who would you vote for?...38% Rick Hill...39% Undecided...23% If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Neil Livingstone, who would you vote for?...41% Neil Livingstone...29% Undecided...30% Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Ken Miller, who would you vote for?...40% Ken Miller...31% Undecided...29% Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Jeff Essmann, who would you vote for?...26% Jeff Essmann...30% Undecided...44% Survey of 1,625 Montana voters
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Rick Hill, who would you vote for?...26% Rick Hill...39% Undecided...35% Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Neil Livingstone, who would you vote for?...26% Neil Livingstone...30% Undecided...44% Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat and Republican Ken Miller, who would you vote for?...25% Ken Miller...33% Undecided...42% Q15 If the Democratic candidates for Governor were and, who would you vote for? (Asked only of 573 Democratic primary voters)...70%... 6% Undecided...24% Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?...47% Barack Obama...43% Someone else/don't... 9% Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat, or very? liberal... 8% Somewhat liberal...18% Moderate...27% Somewhat...27%...19% Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman...53% Man...47% Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat...30% Republican...35% Independent/Other...35% Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. White...94% Other... 6% Q21 If you are 29 years old, press 1. If, press 2. If, press 3. If you are older than, press 4.... 11%...26%...43% than...20% Survey of 1,625 Montana voters
Bullock Favorability 34% 22% 50% 28% 17% 21% 12% 17% 49% 57% 39% 55% Essmann Favorability 8% 11% 4% 9% 20% 13% 29% 17% 72% 76% 67% 74% Hill Favorability 22% 35% 9% 18% 27% 12% 44% 23% 51% 54% 47% 59% Jent Favorability 7% 6% 8% 7% 19% 14% 25% 16% 74% 81% 66% 77%
Livingstone Favorability 5% 6% 4% 6% 19% 12% 27% 17% 76% 82% 69% 78% Miller Favorability 10% 16% 5% 6% 17% 10% 26% 15% 72% 73% 70% 79% Bullock/Essmann Jeff Essmann 42% 14% 74% 30% 30% 56% 4% 21% 28% 30% 21% 48% Bullock/Hill 38% 8% 74% 26% Rick Hill 39% 70% 7% 29% 23% 22% 19% %
Bullock/Livingstone Bullock/Miller 41% 12% 76% 29% 40% 11% 75% 28% Neil Livingstone 29% 52% 4% 25% Ken Miller 31% 56% 4% 24% 30% 36% 20% 47% 29% 33% 21% 48% Jent/Essmann Jent/Hill 26% 7% 50% 15% 26% 4% 53% 17% Jeff Essmann 30% 53% 6% 21% Rick Hill 39% 67% 11% 30% 44% 40% 44% 64% 35% 30% 36% 54%
Jent/Livingstone Jent/Miller 26% 5% 52% 14% 25% 5% 51% 12% Neil Livingstone 30% 52% 6% 24% Ken Miller 33% 58% 7% 24% 44% 42% 42% 63% 42% 37% 43% 64% 2012 Dem Gov Prim ary 70% 39% 73% 64% 6% 20% 5% 3% 24% 41% 22% 33% Bullock Favorability 34% 46% 43% % 27% 17% 17% 13% 15% 14% 16% 25% 49% 40% 42% 41% 57% 58%
Es s m ann Favorability 8% 3% 4% 5% 11% 12% 20% 33% 30% 25% 14% 8% 72% 64% % 70% 75% 80% Hill Favorability 22% 7% 8% 15% 33% 37% 27% 44% 47% 33% 13% 11% 51% 50% 46% 52% 54% 52% Jent Favorability 7% 10% 6% 8% 6% 5% 19% 29% 27% 21% 15% 9% 74% 61% 67% 70% 79% 86% Livingstone Favorability 5% 4% 1% 4% 6% 9% 19% 29% 31% 22% 12% 10% 76% 67% 68% 73% 82% 81%
Miller Favorability 10% 4% 3% 6% 13% 23% 17% 29% 26% 22% 12% 6% 72% 66% 71% 72% 76% 72% Bullock/Essmann 42% 74% 70% 58% 20% 8% Jeff Essmann 30% 11% 5% 15% 44% % 28% 14% 25% 27% 36% 27% Bullock/Hill 38% 75% 70% 54% 15% 2% Rick Hill 39% 15% 7% 23% 56% 77% 23% 11% 23% 23% 28% 21% Bullock/Livingstone 41% 76% 71% 57% 20% 5% Neil Livingstone 29% 13% 5% 14% 39% 64% 30% 10% 24% 28% 41% 32%
Bullock/Miller 40% 77% 72% 56% 18% 3% Ken Miller 31% 14% 4% 15% 43% 68% 29% 10% 24% 29% 39% 28% Jent/Essmann 26% 56% 54% 31% 10% 3% Jeff Essmann 30% 14% 6% 17% 41% 61% 44% 29% 40% 51% 49% 36% Jent/Hill 26% 55% 58% 33% 8% 1% Rick Hill 39% 19% 10% 25% 55% 73% 35% 26% 32% 42% 37% 26% Jent/Livingstone 26% 56% 56% 33% 8% 2% Neil Livingstone 30% 16% 5% 16% 39% 64% 44% 28% 38% 51% 52% 35%
Jent/Miller 25% 56% 53% 32% 8% 1% Ken Miller 33% 15% 5% 18% % 70% 42% 29% 42% 50% 47% 30% 2012 Dem Gov Primary 70% 75% 70% 71% 57% 35% 6% 6% 3% 9% 9% - 24% 19% 26% 20% 34% % Bullock Favorability Wom an Man 34% 32% 37% 17% 14% 20% 49% 54% 43% Es s m ann Favorability Wom an Man 8% 7% 9% 20% 16% 25% 72% 77% 67%
Wom an Man Wom an Man Hill Favorability Jent Favorability 22% 19% 26% 7% 6% 8% 27% 25% 29% 19% 16% 23% 51% 56% 46% 74% 78% 69% Livingstone Favorability Wom an Man 5% 3% 7% 19% 16% 23% 76% 81% 70% Wom an Man Miller Favorability 10% 9% 11% 17% 14% 21% 72% 76% 68%
Wom an Man Wom an Man Bullock/Es sm ann Bullock/Hill 42% 41% 43% 38% 39% 37% Jeff Essmann 30% 29% 32% Rick Hill 39% 37% 41% 28% 30% 25% 23% 24% 22% Bullock/Livingstone Neil Livingstone Wom an Man 41% 41% 42% 29% 28% 29% 30% 31% 29% Wom an Man Bullock/Miller 40% 40% 41% Ken Miller 31% 31% 31% 29% 30% 29%
Wom an Man Wom an Man Jent/Essmann Jent/Hill 26% 25% 28% 26% 25% 28% Jeff Essmann 30% 30% 30% Rick Hill 39% 38% 40% 44% % 42% 35% 37% 32% Jent/Livingstone Neil Livingstone Wom an Man 26% 24% 29% 30% 29% 30% 44% 47% 41% Wom an Man Jent/Miller 25% 24% 26% Ken Miller 33% 31% 34% 42% % 39%
2012 Dem Gov Prim ary Wom an Man 70% 68% 72% 6% 5% 8% Bullock Favorability Democrat Republican Independent/Other 34% 54% 21% 31% 17% 13% 21% 15% 49% 32% 58% 54% 24% 27% 20% Essmann Favorability Democrat Republican Independent/Other 8% 6% 12% 5% 20% 30% 11% 21% 72% 64% 77% 74% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Hill Favorability 22% 9% 37% 18% 27% 47% 10% 26% 51% 44% 53% 56%
Democrat Republican Independent/Other Democrat Republican Independent/Other Jent Favorability 7% 9% 6% 5% 19% 27% 11% 19% 74% 63% 82% 75% Livingstone Favorability 5% 3% 8% 4% 19% 30% 11% 19% 76% 68% 82% 77% Miller Favorability Democrat Republican Independent/Other 10% 4% 18% 9% 17% 27% 8% 19% 72% 70% 75% 72% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bullock/Essmann 42% 80% 12% 38% Jeff Essmann 30% 3% 61% 23% Undecided 28% 17% 27% 39%
Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bullock/Hill 38% 81% 6% 33% Rick Hill 39% 6% 75% 32% Undecided 23% 13% 19% 35% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bullock/Livingstone 41% 83% 11% 35% Neil Livingstone 29% 4% 57% 22% Undecided 30% 13% 31% 43% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bullock/Miller 40% 83% 10% 34% Ken Miller 31% 4% 60% 24% Undecided 29% 13% 30% 42% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Jent/Essmann 26% 58% 7% 18% Jeff Essmann 30% 5% 59% 22% Undecided 44% 37% 34% 59%
Jent/Hill Democrat Republican Independent/Other 26% 61% 3% 19% Rick Hill 39% 9% 72% 32% Undecided 35% 30% 25% 49% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Jent/Livingstone 26% 59% 5% 20% Neil Livingstone 30% 6% 58% 22% Undecided 44% 36% 37% 59% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Jent/Miller 25% 58% 4% 19% Ken Miller 33% 5% 63% 26% Undecided 42% 37% 33% 56% 2012 Dem Gov Prim ary Democrat Republican Independent/Other 70% 74% 34% 62% 6% 4% 47% 9% Undecided 24% 22% 18% 29%
White Other White Other Bullock Favorability 34% 35% 28% 17% 16% 32% 49% 49% 40% Es s m ann Favorability 8% 8% 6% 20% 20% 29% 72% 72% % Hill Favorability White Other 22% 22% 21% 27% 26% 33% 51% 52% 46% White Other Jent Favorability 7% 7% 8% 19% 18% 29% 74% 75% 63%
White Other White Other Livingstone Favorability 5% 5% 3% 19% 19% 29% 76% 76% 68% Miller Favorability 10% 10% 9% 17% 17% 21% 72% 73% 70% Bullock/Es sm ann Jeff Essmann White Other 42% 41% 53% 30% 31% 17% 28% 28% 30% White Other Bullock/Hill 38% 38% 48% Rick Hill 39% 39% 31% 23% 23% 21%
White Other White Other Bullock/Livingstone Bullock/Miller 41% 40% 59% 40% 39% 54% Neil Livingstone 29% 29% 23% Ken Miller 31% 31% 27% 30% 31% 18% 29% 30% 19% White Other White Other Jent/Essmann Jent/Hill 26% 26% 35% 26% 26% 34% Jeff Essmann 30% 30% 24% Rick Hill 39% 39% 35% 44% 44% 41% 35% 35% 31%
White Other White Other Jent/Livingstone Jent/Miller 26% 25% 43% 25% 24% 43% Neil Livingstone 30% 30% 24% Ken Miller 33% 33% 28% 44% % 33% 42% 43% 30% 2012 Dem Gov Prim ary White Other 70% 71% 54% 6% 5% 21% 24% 24% 25% Bullock Favorability than 34% 32% 33% 35% 36% 17% 18% 19% 16% 17% 49% 50% 49% 49% 47%
than than Es s m ann Favorability 8% 8% 10% 7% 7% 20% 21% 18% 21% 22% 72% 71% 72% 72% 71% Hill Favorability 22% 15% 20% 23% 26% 27% 34% 23% 28% 25% 51% 52% 56% 49% 49% Jent Favorability than 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 19% 19% 17% 20% 20% 74% 73% 77% 73% 74% Livingstone Favorability than 5% 5% 7% 4% 5% 19% 19% 17% 20% 20% 76% 76% 76% 76% 75%
than than Miller Favorability Bullock/Es sm ann 10% 6% 10% 11% 12% 42% 52% 36% 41% 44% 17% 18% 14% 18% 18% Jeff Essmann 30% 13% 35% 31% 31% 72% 76% 76% 71% 69% 28% 35% 29% 27% 24% Bullock/Hill Rick Hill than 38% 52% 30% 39% 41% 39% 21% 44% 39% 43% 23% 27% 26% 23% 16% Bullock/Livingstone Neil Livingstone than 41% 52% 38% 40% 42% 29% 16% 33% 28% 31% 30% 32% 29% 32% 27%
than than Bullock/Miller Jent/Essmann 40% 52% 35% 40% 41% 26% 37% 22% 26% 26% Ken Miller 31% 16% 35% 30% 34% Jeff Essmann 30% 18% 34% 29% 32% 29% 32% 30% 30% 25% 44% % 44% 44% 42% than than Jent/Hill Jent/Livingstone 26% 32% 23% 26% 27% 26% 34% 23% 27% 25% Rick Hill 39% 26% 42% 40% 42% Neil Livingstone 30% 19% 33% 29% 31% 35% 42% 35% 35% 31% 44% 47% 44% 44% 44%
Jent/Miller Ken Miller than 25% 32% 22% 25% 25% 33% 18% 37% 33% 35% 42% 50% 41% 42% 40% 2012 Dem Gov Prim ary than 70% 83% 64% % 78% 6% 4% 11% 7% 2% 24% 13% 25% 28% 21%