THE ELECTIONS FINANCIAL MARKET IMPACT

Similar documents
Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Solutions. Algebra II Journal. Module 3: Standard Deviation. Making Deviation Standard

Little Gain for Bush's Tax Cut; Job Rating is Positive, but Subpar

LSP In-Class Activity 5 Working with PASW 20 points Due by Saturday, Oct. 17 th 11:59 pm ANSWERS

Regular Vetoes and Pocket Vetoes: In Brief

Regular Vetoes and Pocket Vetoes: An Overview

The US Economy: Are Republicans or Democrats Better?

Table 1. Definition and Measurement of Variables

Regular Vetoes and Pocket Vetoes: An Overview

CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web

DEMOCRATS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

CRS Report for Congress

About the Survey. Rating and Ranking the Presidents

THE 2008 ELECTION: 1 DAY TO GO October 31 November 2, 2008

Chapter 10 Elections and Campaigns

Chapter 8 The Presidency. Section 1 President and Vice President

SS7 CIVICS, CH. 8.1 THE GROWTH OF AMERICAN PARTIES FALL 2016 PP. PROJECT

The Constitution of the United States of America

pewwww.pewresearch.org

Chapter 13: The Presidency Section 2

Expansion and Reform. (Early 1800s-1861) PRESIDENTS OF THE UNITED STATES. By Daniel Casciato

Trump, Populism and the Economy

Chapter 8 The Presidency - Section 1 SSCG12&13 Duties of the President President s Term Salary and Benefits

American Government. Chapter 11. The Presidency

The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison

The Origins and Rules Governing the Office of President of the United States

American Presidential Elections. The American presidential election system has produced some interesting quirks, such as...

Presidential Project

Research Skills. 2010, 2003 Copyright by Remedia Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Printed in the U.S.A.

CRS Report for Congress

Campaign Finance Charges Raise Doubts Among 7% of Clinton Backers FINAL PEW CENTER SURVEY-CLINTON 52%, DOLE 38%, PEROT 9%

The Executive Branch

State Representation in Appointments to Federal Circuit Courts

Americans fear the financial crisis has far-reaching effects for the whole nation and are more pessimistic about the economy than ever.

Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations

Chapter 13: The Presidency Section 2

Chapter 13: The Presidency Section 1

Post-War United States

The 2014 Legislative Elections

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GOVT President & Domestic Policy October 11, Dr. Michael Sullivan. MoWe 5:30 6:50 MoWe 7 8:30

Selecting a President: The Presidential Nomination and Election Process

Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid?

What do you know about how our president is elected?

2. A bitter battle between Theodore Roosevelt and his successor, William H. Taft, led to.

Electing a President. The Electoral College

Contemporary United States

REPUBLICANS VS. DEMOCRATS:

Submission of the President s Budget in Transition Years

The White House and Press Timeline Compiled January 2017

Macroeconomics and Presidential Elections

Charlie Cook s Tour of American Politics

The Historical Experience of Experience: How and When Experience in a President Counts Charles O. Jones

Chapter 3: The Constitution Section 3

AP AMERICAN GOVERNMENT

Navigating Choppy Waters

Answers to the essay questions are to be written in the separate essay booklet.

On Election Night 2008, Democrats

Name: Date: 3. is all the ways people get information about politics and the wider world. A) Twitter B) Tumblr C) Media D) The Internet

Election and Legislative Update for Healthcare Providers 2012 Southeast Healthcare Provider Conference September 25, 2012

9/2/13. Formal Qualifications. Informal Qualification

Submission of the President s Budget in Transition Years

[ 5.1 ] The Presidency An Overview. [ 5.1 ] The Presidency An Overview. The President's Many Roles. [ 5.1 ] The Presidency An Overview

Select 2016 The American elections who will win, how will they govern?

Topic 4: Congress Section 1

Presidential term: Lived: Occupations: Planter, Lawyer. Vice Presidents: Aaron Burr, George Clinton

2018 MIDTERMS PRE- ELECTION OVER VIEW OCTOBER 2018

Presidents of the United States Cards

A Record Shortfall in Personal Popularity Challenges Romney in the Race Ahead

Presented by: Jeff Bush

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, May, 2017, Public Trust in Government Remains Near Historic Lows as Partisan Attitudes Shift

AMERICAN GOVERNMENT POWER & PURPOSE

American political campaigns

White House Transitions Fact Sheet Compiled November 2016

U.S. Circuit and District Court Nominations During President Trump s First Year in Office: Comparative Analysis with Recent Presidents

2019: A Political Odyssey We need some downtime

Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Presidents

U.S. Family Income Growth

Museum of World Treasures

FOR RELEASE NOVEMBER 07, 2017

Moral Values Take Back Seat to Partisanship and the Economy In 2004 Presidential Election

History, Evolution, and Practices of the President s State of the Union Address: Frequently Asked Questions

Half See 2012 Campaign as Dull, Too Long Modest Interest in Gadhafi Death, Iraq Withdrawal

Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Presidents

UNIT 5-1 CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENCY

American Dental Association

Chapter 13: The Presidency Section 4

NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD. FOR RELEASE September 12, 2014 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT:

Executive Branch Chapter 6 Section 1

PRESIDENT OBAMA AT ONE YEAR January 14-17, 2010

The Executive Branch. The Presidency

Chapter 6 Presidential Institutions. AP Government

Everything Investors Need to Know and Should Ignore About the Upcoming Election

It s Democrats +8 in Likely Voter Preference, With Trump and Health Care on Center Stage

President s Swearing-In Ceremony

Gingrich, Romney Most Heard About Candidates Primary Fight and Obama Speech Top News Interest

Presidential Trivia. Presidential Trivia. PS 101 Module 2.3 Presidency 6/11/2009. Gerald Ford Bill Clinton

Lame Duck Sessions of Congress Following a Majority-Changing Election: In Brief

no prerequisites Required Readings no textbook Recommended Readings

Presidential Power. Understanding Presidential Power. What does the Constitution say? 3/3/09

(USG 9B) The student will analyze the structure and functions of the executive branch of government.

Transcription:

THE ELECTIONS FINANCIAL MARKET IMPACT EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. 5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829 Phone: (412) 548-1386 E-mail: wealth@emergingwealth.com Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. 5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 350 Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829 Phone: (412) 635-9210 E-mail: legend@legend-financial.com www.legend-financial.com

LOU STANASOLOVICH, CFP, CCO, CEO Lou is founder, CCO, CEO and President of Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. and EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. Legend s founder, Lou was selected by Financial Planning magazine as part of their inaugural Influencer Awards for the Wealth Creator Award recognizing the advisor who has made the most significant contributions to best practices for portfolio management. He is one of only four advisors nationwide to be selected 12 consecutive times by Worth magazine as one of The Top 100 Wealth Advisors in the country. Lou has also been selected 12 times by Medical Economics magazine as one of The 150 Best Financial Advisors for Doctors in America Lou has been selected five times by Dental Products Report as one of The Best Financial Advisors for Dentists in America. He has twice been named one of The 100 Great Financial Planners in America by Mutual Funds magazine. Lou has been named three times to Investment Advisor magazine s IA 25 list, ranking the 25 most influential people in and around the financial advisory profession. Lou was profiled in Financial Planning magazine as one of the country s Movers & Shakers recognizing the top individuals who have done the most to advance the financial advisory profession. Lou has also been selected three times by Pittsburgh Magazine as one of the Pittsburgh area s FIVE STAR Wealth Managers, a list that represents the most elite financial advisors in Pittsburgh. With over 30 years advising clients, he has shared his financial planning and investment management expertise through dozens of speeches, radio and television broadcasts, webcasts, and hundreds of times as an interviewee, writer and publisher.

ELECTION FACTS

GETTING BETTER WITH AGE Just 56.6% of Americans at least age 18 voted in the 2012 presidential election. For Americans aged 18-24, just 38.0% of them voted in the last presidential election. For older Americans who were at least age 65, 69.7% voted four years ago. Source: Census Bureau via Direxion, By The Numbers, October 10, 2016, www.direxioninvestments.com

TAX PROPOSALS FROM PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES If Democratic President/Congress <<If President One Party/Congress The Other>>If Republican President/Congress Estate Tax 65.0% Lower Estate Tax Exemption Eliminate Step-Up In Basis At Death Eliminate Estate Tax 47.4% Tax Rate Dividends And LT Gains Taxed As Ordinary Income Limit Value Of Deductions To 28.0% Limit The Value Of Deductions Limit Deductions To $100,000 Per Person 33.0% Tax Rate Eliminate Like-Kind Exchanges Eliminate Carried Interest Size of Circle = Probability GREEN=Both Parties Have Proposals RED=Trump BLUE=Clinton PINK=Sanders As of: Fall, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 TWENTY-FIRST SECURITIES CORPORATION Source: Twenty-First Securities Corporation, Tailored Solutions, Volume XIX, Issue 3, Fall, 2016, www.twenty-first.com REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM TWENTY-FIRST SECURITIES CORPORATION

ALL THE SAME One political party has controlled the White House, the Senate and the House in 20 of the last 60 years, i.e., 1957 to 2016. E.g., Democrats controlled the White House (Obama), the Senate (58 40 2) and the House (257 178) in 2010, the last year that one political party controlled all three entities. Source: Direxion, By The Numbers, October 10, 2016, www.direxioninvestments.com

OFFICES UP FOR ELECTION I. President (Four Year Term) II. Senate (Six Year Term) A. 2016 Senatorial Class (Known As Class 3) 34 Seats 1. Current Situation (100 Elected Senators) a. Republicans 54 b. Democrats 44 c. Independent 2 2. Up For Election (34 Senators) a. Republicans 24 b. Democrats 10

OFFICES UP FOR ELECTION (Continued) III. House Of Representatives (Two Year Terms) A. 2016 435 Congressional Districts Will Hold Elections 218 Seats Needed For Control 1. Locals a. All 50 States b. The District Of Columbia c. The Inhabited Territories (5) 2. Current Situation a. 246 Republicans Largest Majority Since 1928 b. 186 Democrats c. 0 Independent d. 3 Vacancies

OFFICES UP FOR ELECTION (Continued) IV. Other Election Facts A. Election Day Tuesday, November 8, 2016 B. Inauguration Day Friday, January 20, 2017

CONGRESSIONAL & PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS % Change In Votes Required So That A New Party Takes Control **Swing required is defined as the percentage of total voters, on a uniform national basis, that would have to switch from voting Republican to Democrat or vice-versa, in order to achieve 270 Electoral College votes, 50 Senate seats or 218 House seats respectively. Calculations are relative to the 2010 Senate election, 2012 Presidential election and 2014 House election respectively. Estimates also count two independent senators currently caucusing with the Democrats as Democrats. As of: September 30, 2016 Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

S&P 500 S (U.S. LARGE STOCK S) ANNUAL & PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES COMBINED: ANNUALIZED TOTAL RETURNS, 1926 TO DATE Post-Election Year Mid-Term Year Pre-Election Year Election Year 24.7% 12.9% 11.0% 9.4% 8.4% 8.7% 5.8% 1.1% Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct We are here As of: October 7, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, October 7, 2014 www.leutholdgroup.com

SMALL U.S. STOCK S ANNUAL & PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES COMBINED: ANNUALIZED TOTAL RETURNS, 1926 TO DATE Post-Election Year Mid-Term Year Pre-Election Year Election Year 34.6% 27.1% 18.6% 9.0% 6.6% 9.4% 3.8% May-Oct -10.4% Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct We are here As of: October 7, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, October 7, 2014 www.leutholdgroup.com

Average Return 10.0% SELL IN MAY PHENOMENON BY PRESIDENTAL CYCLE: Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 To 2015) November Through April 10.92% 8.0% May Through October Average May October return during Year 4 s = +4.52% 6.0% 4.72% 4.52% 4.0% 3.48% 2.60% 2.0% 0.0% 1.28% 0.50% 0.00% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Presidential Year Source: J. Lyons Fund Management, Inc./My401kPro.com

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE IN THE S&P 500 1926 TO DATE 22.0 20.0 18.0 +17.6% 16.0 S&P 500 Annualized Total Return 14.0 12.0 10.0 +9.5% 8.0 6.0 +6.0% +6.1% 4.0 2.0 0.0 Post-Election Year Mid-Term Year Pre-Election Year Election Year As of: September, 2010 COPYRIGHT 2010THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2010 REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

S&P PERFORMANCE DURING ELECTION YEARS 12.0% 11.40% 10.0% 8.0% 7.00% 6.0% 4.0% 3.33% 2.0% 0.0% Election Year Average Democrat Win Republican Win

S&P 500 PERFORMANCE AVERAGES * IN ELECTION VERSUS NON-ELECTION YEARS 1944 To Date September October November December President Election Years 0.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% Non President Election Years -0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% * Price-Only Returns As of: September, 2008 COPYRIGHT 2008 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2008, http://leuth.us/market-internals REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

HISTORICAL POST-ELECTION STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE **The First 200 Days** As Of 2008 All Presidential Elections Stock Market Performance Following Election Day (Price Only Performance: 1896-1928 DJIA; 1928 To Date S&P 500) Occurrences 10 Days 20 Days 50 Days 75 Days 100 Days 150 Days 200 Days Elections 1896 To Date 28 1.1% 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% 5.3% Republican Wins 1896 To Date 16 2.2% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 2.6% 5.1% 5.6% Democrat Wins 1869 To Date 12-0.3% -1.6% 0.4% -0.4% -1.1% 1.4% 4.9% Republican vs. Democrat Elections 1944 To Date (Post World War II) 16-0.4% 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 3.0% 3.7% Republican Wins 1944 To Date 9 0.1% 1.3% 1.1% -0.7% -1.5% 0.6% 0.2% Democrat Wins 1944 To Date 7-1.1% -0.8% 2.6% 4.0% 3.4% 6.1% 8.2% As of: September, 2008 COPYRIGHT 2008 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2008, http://leuth.us/market-internals REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE UNDER U.S. PRESIDENTS SINCE 1945 20 18.6% 15 11.9% 14.9% 12.6% 10 9.1% 10.3% 8.9% 6.7% 6.0% 9.4% 5 0-5 -5.1% -4.6% Truman Kennedy Nixon Bush (41) Bush (43) Eisenhower Johnson Ford Carter Reagan Clinton Obama Source: SCP Capital IQ

S&P 500 INDEX ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE BY PRESIDENT President Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Grant -12.8 2.7-3.7-18.1 Hayes -9.2 6.2 42.6 18.7 Garfield 2.9-2.8-8.6-18.7 Cleveland 19.8 8.5-6.6-2.5 Harrison 3.5-13.5 17.6 1.8 Cleveland -20.0-2.5 0.5-2.3 McKinley* 12.6 18.9 6.5 14.1 15.7 Roosevelt, T. 1.3-18.4 25.6 15.6 3.1-33.2 37.4 Taft 14.1-12.1 0.7 3.0 Wilson -14.3-8.6 29.0 3.4-30.6 16.2 14.0-24.5 Harding* 7.4 20.9-1.5 18.7 Coolidge 21.9 5.7 30.9 37.9 Hoover -11.9-28.5-47.1-15.1 Roosevelt, F. 46.6-5.9 41.4 27.9-38.6 25.2-5.5-15.3 Roosevelt, F.** -17.9 12.4 19.4 13.8 Truman 30.7-11.9 0.0-0.7 10.3 21.8 16.5 11.8 Eisenhower -6.6 45.0 26.4 2.6-14.3 38.1 8.5-3.0 *Died or resigned while in office. If during first term, then S&P 500 returns applied to original president. If occurred during second term, then subsequent returns applied to new president s first term. **FDR s third term included in second term statistics as it is a non-first term. COPYRIGHT 2015 NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices via Ned Davis Research, 2015, www.ndr.com REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC.

S&P 500 INDEX ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE BY PRESIDENT (cont d) President Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Kennedy* 23.1-11.8 18.9 13.0 Johnson 9.1-13.1 20.1 7.7 Nixon -11.4 0.1 10.8 15.6-17.4 Ford -29.7 31.5 19.1 Carter -11.5 1.1 12.3 25.8 Reagan -9.7 14.8 17.3 1.4 26.3 14.6 2.0 12.4 Bush I 27.3-6.6 26.3 4.5 Clinton 7.1-1.5 34.1 20.3 31.0 26.7 19.5-10.1 Bush II -13.0-23.4 26.4 9.0 3.0 13.6 3.5-38.5 Obama 23.5 12.8 0.0 13.4 29.6 11.4 N/A N/A All Cases YEAR 7 UP, BUT < YEAR 3 Median 7.1-2.5 17.3 9.0 3.0 14.6 6.0-6.6 % Positive 61 44 72 80 54 100 70 40 Since 1953 (Term Limits): Median 0.3-1.5 20.1 13.0 14.7 14.6 6.0-6.6 % Positive 50 45 91 100 67 100 100 25 *Died or resigned while in office. If during first term, then S&P 500 returns applied to original president. If occurred during second term, then subsequent returns applied to new president s first term. **FDR s third term included in second term statistics as it is a non-first term. COPYRIGHT 2015 NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices via Ned Davis Research, 2015, www.ndr.com REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC.

POLITICAL PARTY DOMINANCE Democratic % Of Major Party Seats *In roll call votes where the majority in one party voted the opposite way to the majority in the other. Data compiled by Professors Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal, available at www.voteview.com Data on voting records are not yet available for the 114 th Congress. **Stock market returns are price returns and do not include dividends. Average annual returns are calculated using year-end to year-end numbers for the entire year because Democrats held the chamber for most of the year. As of: September 30, 2016 Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

CONGRESSIONAL & PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS *In roll call votes where the majority in one party voted the opposite way to the majority in the other. Data compiled by Professors Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal, available at www.voteview.com Data on voting records are not yet available for the 114 th Congress. **Stock market returns are price returns and do not include dividends. Average annual returns are calculated using year-end to year-end numbers for the entire year because Democrats held the chamber for most of the year. As of: September 30, 2016 Source: Gallup Inc., J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

ANNUAL MARKET RETURNS BY POLITICAL PARTY CONTROL** *In roll call votes where the majority in one party voted the opposite way to the majority in the other. Data compiled by Professors Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal, available at www.voteview.com Data on voting records are not yet available for the 114 th Congress. **Stock market returns are price returns and do not include dividends. Average annual returns are calculated using year-end to year-end numbers for the entire year because Democrats held the chamber for most of the year. As of: June 30, 2016 Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Gallup Inc., FactSet, Standard & Poor s, BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

DOW JONES FOUR-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES Election Year First Presidential Year Second Presidential Year Third Presidential Year Presidential Election Pattern Based on Daily Data (1900-01-02 to 2015-12-31) Trend Is More Important Than Level As of: January 8, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC. Source: Ned Davis Research via CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. On My Radar, January 8, 2016, www.cmgwealth.com REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM NED DAVIS RESEARCH AND CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.

ELECTION CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET: BEFORE AND AFTER THE KEYNESIAN REVOLUTION 22.0 20.0 18.0 1800 To 1935 1936 To Date +16.8% 16.0 S&P 500* Annualized Price Appreciation 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 +0.1% Favorable Pre-Election Phase Of Cycle (15 Months) *S&P 500 returns prior to 1871 estimated by Global Financial Data As of: September, 2010 COPYRIGHT 2010THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC +1.6% Unfavorable Phase Of Cycle (Next 33 Months) Favorable Pre-Election Phase Of Cycle (15 Months) +1.8% Unfavorable Phase Of Cycle (Next 33 Months) Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2010 REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

1.50 PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE PATTERNS 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 2 nd Term Presidents 1 st Termer From New Party 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 Election Nov. 1 st Year Nov. 2 nd Year Nov. 3 rd Year Election 2014, McClellan Financial Publications www.mcoscillator.com

25.0% DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA) RETURNS SPLIT BETWEEN FIRST AND SECOND TERMS 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% First Terms 5.0% Second Terms 0.0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4-5.0% -10.0% Note: Data reflect the DJIA Since 1940 and fiscal years beginning October 1

THE LOWEST INTEREST RATES IN 5,000 YEARS 20.0% 18.0% Short-term rates Long-term rates 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3000 BC 300 1720 1755 1790 1825 1860 1859 1930 1965 2000 2035 Note: The intervals on the X-Axis change through time up to 1700. From 1700 onwards, they are annual intervals. Full methodology available upon request. As of: June 13, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 361 CAPITAL, LLC Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla A History of Interest Rates via 361 Capital, LLC, Weekly Research Briefing, June 13, 2016, www.361capital.com REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM 361 CAPITAL, LLC

FIXED INCOME CHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Averages 1.26 1.28 2.06 1.40 2.13 2.84 1.83 6.25 5.52 4.98 4.56 6.18 As of: September 30, 2016 Source: Barclays Capital, JP Morgan, BofA Merrill Lynch and Standard & Poor s via Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor, July, 2016, www.eatonvance.com REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF EATON VANCE DISTRIBUTORS, INC.

P/E 45 40 35 SHILLER PRICE/EARNINGS RATIOS Long-Term Stock Market P/E Valuations Fell A Bit In December-Still In Highest Valuation Levels Note: Created by Robert J. Shiller, Professor at Yale University, this Price Earnings Ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years (Each year of earnings is inflated and quoted in current dollars), known as the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio, also known as the Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 Ratio. Because this factors in earnings from the previous ten years, it is less prone to wild swings in any one year. The bad news: Because of the current high P/E valuation of 26.55 returns on the S&P 500 are likely to be in the very low single digits over the next ten years. Black Tuesday 30 25 26.55 20 Black Monday 15 10 5 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1881-01-01 As of: October 18, 2016 REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC. Source: www.multpl.com COPYRIGHT 2016 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

U.S. STARTING VALUATIONS HAVE DEMONSTRATED A STRONG IMPACT ON FUTURE RETUNS Subsequent nominal returns (annualized)* Current level: 26.55 * Median of the annualized subsequent returns calculated at each month end, using Shiller P/E and S&P 500 monthly returns from December 31, 1927 to November 21, 2014 As of: December 2015 Source: Robert Shiller Online Data; Via PIMCO

CONTACT INFORMATION EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. 5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829 Phone: (412) 548-1386 Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. 5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 350 Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829 Phone: (412) 635-9210 E-mail: legend@legend-financial.com www.legend-financial.com