Europe in Transition - The NYU European Studies Series Series Editor Martin Schain Dept of Politics New York University New York, USA
This series explores the core questions facing the new Europe. It is particularly interested in studies that focus on such issues as the process and development of the European Union, shifting political alliances, military arrangements, the impact of immigration on European societies and politics, and the emergence of ethno-nationalism within the boundaries of Europe. The series includes both collected volumes as well as monographs. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/14976
Pascal Perrineau Editor The 2012 French Election How the Electorate Decided
Editor Pascal Perrineau Sciences Po Centre de Recherches Politiques (CEVIPOF) Paris, France Translated by: Chantal De Barra Europe in Transition - The NYU European Studies Series ISBN 978-1-349-94956-4 ISBN 978-1-349-94957-1 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/978-1-349-94957-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016947046 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016 Translation from the French language edition: La décision électorale en 2012 edited by Pascal Perrineau, Armand Colin, 2013. All Rights Reserved. Pascal Perrineau, 2016. This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media LLC New York
TECHNICAL NOTE The Centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), the Le Monde newspaper, the Fondation pour l innovation politique (Fondapol) and the Fondation Jean Jaurès (FJJ) joined forces with IPSOS /Logica Business Consulting to interview a panel of 6000 registered voters, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, during the campaign for the presidential and ensuing legislative elections in 2012. The sample group was interviewed on line via the IPSOS Access Panel according to the quota method quotas (gender, age, profession household s reference person, region and category of agglomeration). The panel was entitled the Présidoscopie 2012 and was interviewed on 12 occasions between November 2011 and June 2012 in which 2422 voters took part in the 12 waves. The first ten interview waves were carried out between November 2011 and April 2012: Wave 1: November 4 10, 2011, among 6000 individuals Wave 2: November 30 December 5, 2011, among 5415 individuals Wave 3: January 12 16, 2012, among 4910 individuals Wave 4: February 2 7, 2012, among 4756 individuals Wave 5: February 16 21, 2012, among 4728 individuals Wave 6: March 1 6, 2012, among 4603 individuals Wave 7: March 23 27, 2012, among 4354 individuals Wave 8: April 5 10, 2012, among 4261 individuals Wave 9: April 19 21, 2012, among 4075 individuals Wave 10: April 27 30, 2012, among 3967 individuals v
vi TECHNICAL NOTE The final two Waves were carried out after the presidential election and took place before the legislative election (Wave 11) and after it (Wave 12). They were carried out with the support of the Centre d études et de connaissance sur l opinion publique (CECOP) and of the Fondation nationale des sciences politiques (FNSP): Wave 11: June 6 8, 2012, among 3270 individuals Wave 12: June 19 25, 2012, among 2997 individuals The first round of the presidential election was held on April 22 and the second round on May 6, 2012. The first round of the legislative election was carried out on June 10 and the second round on the June 17, 2012. After the presidential election, the CEVIPOF together with the Opinionway institute, carried out a post-electoral survey using a sample of 2504 individuals representative of the French population aged 18 and over and registered to vote, taken from a sample of 2782 individuals, representative of the French population aged 18 and over and registered to vote. The sample was interviewed by telephone using the CATI system to connect with respondents at their home. These interviews were carried out during May 10 29, 2012. The detailed results of the Présidoscopie Waves and of the post-electoral survey are presented on the CEVIPOF site under the heading Elections 2012 : http://www.cevipof.com/fr/2012/recherche/panel The analyses presented in this book are essentially based on data gathered during the 12 waves of the Présidoscopie. Such a panel technique where the same sample of voters is interviewed on several occasions throughout the duration of the campaign provides an irreplaceable tool to understand both permanent and mobile phenomena during the period of an election and identify the various factors that contribute to determining the final electoral result.
CONTENTS 1 Introduction 1 Pascal Perrineau Part I Perceptions of the Campaign 9 2 Predetermined Issues in the 2012 Presidential Election 11 Gilles Finchelstein 3 The Candidates: Crystallized Images 25 Daniel Boy and Jean Chiche 4 Information Gathering and Campaign Following Among Voters: The Paradox of Electoral Campaigns 47 Thierry Vedel Part II Voter Mobility and Mobilization 57 5 Electoral Turnout: Mobilization in All Its Diversity 59 Anne Muxel 6 Fluctuations on the Left 77 Flora Chanvril and Henri Rey vii
viii CONTENTS 7 Shifts in Voting Decisions on the Right: From a Centripetal Victory to a Centrifugal Defeat 93 Bruno Cautrès and Sylvie Strudel 8 Fluctuations between the Left and the Right: Expressions of Protest that Benefitted François Hollande 113 Anne Muxel 9 Fluctuations at the Center: A Short-Lived and Fragile Breakthrough for François Bayrou 131 Pierre Bréchon Part III Making a Voting Choice 147 10 The Moment of Electoral Choice 149 Pascal Perrineau and Brice Teinturier 11 The Impact of Issues on Electoral Choice 169 Dominque Reynié 12 Narrowing the Gap in the Second Round or the Referenda of the May 6, 2012 189 Jérôme Jaffré Part IV Expectations of the Incoming President 207 13 Expectations of the New President 209 Mariette Sineau and Bruno Cautrès 14 A Review of the First Hundred Days: A Normal Presidency at a Time of Unprecedented Crisis 223 Jérôme Fourquet
CONTENTS ix 15 Conclusion 233 Pascal Perrineau Bibliography 237 Index 241
LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 2.1 The importance of social inequality by electorate 16 Fig. 2.2 The importance of immigration by electorate 17 Graph 3.1 François Hollande, positive opinions and voting intentions from Wave 1 to Wave 9 38 Graph 3.2 Jean-Luc Mélenchon, positive opinions and voting intentions from Wave 1 to Wave 9 38 Graph 3.3 François Bayrou, positive opinions and voting intentions from Wave 1 to Wave 9 39 Graph 3.4 Nicolas Sarkozy, positive opinions and voting intentions from Wave 1 to Wave 9 39 Graph 3.5 Marine Le Pen, positive opinions and voting intentions from Wave 1 to Wave 9 40 Graph 5.1 Degree of certainty to vote between Waves 1 and 9 61 Graph 5.2 Changes in electoral mobilization between Waves 1 and 9 according to age 63 Graph 5.3 Changes in electoral mobilization between Waves 1 and 9 according to socio-professional category 64 Graph 5.4 Changes in electoral mobilization between Waves 1 and 9 according to standard of living ( In 2012, the monthly net minimum wage stood at 1098 euros ) 65 Graph 5.5 Changes in electoral mobilization between Waves 1 and 9 according to the job insecurity index 65 Graph 5.6 Changes in electoral mobilization between Waves 1 and 9 according to political positioning 66 Graph 5.7 Changes in electoral mobilization between Waves 1 and 9 according to political confidence 67 xi
xii LIST OF FIGURES Graph 6.1 Gains and losses in voting intentions between Wave 1 (November 4 10, 2011) and Wave 9 (April 19 21, 2012) for each left-wing candidate 84 Graph 6.2 Changes in the second voting intention between Wave 4 (February 2 7, 2012) and Wave 7 (March 23 27, 2012) 85 Graph 6.3 Division of stable, converted and hesitant voters among voting intentions in Wave 9 (April 19 21, 2012) 86 Graph 6.4 Voting among different types of electorate in the first round of the 2007 presidential election 88 Graph 6.5 Changes in positive opinions of Mélenchon and Hollande between Wave 1 (November 4 10 2011) and Wave 9 (April 19 21 2012) 89 Graph 6.6 Changes in the features of Mélenchon s image among his three electorates between Wave 1 (November 4 10 2011) and Wave 9 (April 19 21 2012) 90 Graph 7.1 Share of stable, converted and hesitant voters among voting Graph 8.1 intentions on the right in Wave 9 (April 19 21, 2012) 105 Changes in L/R mobility according to voters party identification between Waves 3 and 9 124 Graph 10.1 Sarkozy s popularity from May 2007 to April 2012 ( Source : Baromètre IPSOS, carried out for Le Point April 2012) 161 Graph 10.2 Hollande s ability to improve the situation in France if he is elected (January 12-16, April 27-30, 2012) 167 Graph 14.1 A level of pessimism almost never before reached since 1995 229
LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 3.6 Table 3.7 The preoccupations of French people about France and about themselves in Wave 9 (April 19 21) 13 Variations in preoccupations about France between Wave 1 (November 2011) and Wave 9 (April 19 21, 2012) 14 Variations in preoccupations about themselves personally between Wave 1 November 2011) and Wave 9 (April 19 21, 2012) 15 François Hollande: Percent of respondents who answered that a quality applies to him very or quite well, positive opinion and average number of qualities attributed 29 Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Percent of respondents who answered that a quality applies to him very or quite well, positive opinions and average number of qualities attributed 31 Nicolas Sarkozy: Percent of respondents who answered that a quality applies to him very or quite well, positive opinions and average number of qualities attributed 32 François Bayrou: Percent of respondents who answered that a quality applies to him very or quite well, positive opinions and average number of qualities attributed 34 Marine Le Pen: Percent of respondents who answered that a quality applies to her very or quite well, positive opinions and average number of qualities attributed 35 Percent of respondents who think that Hollande seems more capable of in Wave 3 and in Wave 9 36 Correlations, candidate by candidate between the average number of qualities attributed and voting intentions 40 xiii
xiv LIST OF TABLES Table 3.8 Table 3.9 Percent of voting intentions for the five main candidates according to the number of qualities attributed and positioning on a left right scale 41 Percent of voting intentions in the second round of the presidential election according to the number of qualities attributed and positioning on a left right scale (Wave 10, April 27 30) 44 Table 4.1 Activities during the campaign 49 Table 4.2 Source of political information most frequently used 52 Table 4.3 Television news audiences 53 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 7.4 Sociological and political profile of television news audiences 54 Primary source of political information used in function of variations in voting intentions during the campaign 55 Sociological and political factors in the processes of mobilization and demobilization during the campaign 70 How different groups voted according to type of engagement with the 1st round of the presidential election (%) 74 How different groups voted according to their engagement with the election in the 2nd round (%) 74 Characteristics of respondents according to their intention to vote for a left-wing candidate at the start of the panel (Wave 1) 79 Political characteristics according to voting choice (for a left-wing candidates) (Wave 1) 80 Negative or positive opinions about a series of subjects according to voting choice (of the three main left-wing candidates only because of sample numbers) 81 Shifts in voting intentions on the right from Wave 1 to Wave 9 with dates: in% of respondents who said they were certain to vote (unweighted results) 96 Sociological composition of potential Sarkozy and Le Pen electorates (% in columns, Wave 1 of the Présidoscopie ; weighted data, N = 6000) a 98 Images of Sarkozy and Le Pen among their potential electorates (% in columns, Wave 1 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, N = 6000) 99 Relationship to politics among potential Sarkozy and Le Pen voters (% in columns, Wave 1 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, N = 6000) 100
LIST OF TABLES xv Table 7.5 Attitudes toward Europe and globalization among potential Sarkozy and Le Pen voters (% in columns, Wave 1 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, N = 6000) 101 Table 7.6 Comparative perceptions of Sarkozy and Hollande among potential Sarkozy and Le Pen voters (Wave 1 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, N = 6000) 102 Table 7.7 Political values among potential Sarkozy and Le Pen voters (% in columns, voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election, measured in Wave 2 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, N= 5415) 102 Table 7.8 Sociological composition of Sarkozy s and Le Pen s electorates (% in columns, Wave 9 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, N = 4075) 103 Table 7.9 Sociology of stable, converted and hesitant voters in voting intentions in Wave 9 (April 19 21, 2012) for Sarkozy (% in columns) 107 Table 7.10 Sociology of stable converted and hesitant voters in voting intentions in Wave 9 (April 19 21, 2012) for Le Pen (% in columns) 108 Table 7.11 Volatility between the final voting intention measured before the first round of the presidential election (Wave 9 of the Présidoscopie ) and the reconstituted first round vote measured after the first round (Wave 10 of the Présidoscopie ) 109 Table 7.12 Volatility between the vote declared in the first round of the election (Wave 10 of the Présidoscopie ) and the voting intention for the second round of the election, measured after the first round (Wave 10 of the Présidoscopie ) 109 Table 8.1 Socio-political profiles of L/R volatile voters and of other volatile voters compared to stable voters 115 Table 8.2 Attitudes and values among volatile L/R voters compared to stable and other volatile voters (%) 117 Table 8.3 Candidate proposals deemed to be desirable and realistic (%) 118 Table 8.4 Perceptions of a selection of significant words (%) 119 Table 8.5 Frequency of change among volatile L/R voters between Waves 1 and 9 (%) 121 Table 8.6 Changes in political positioning between Wave 1 and 7 (%) 123 Table 8.7 Positive image of candidates between Waves 1 and 9 (%) 127 Table 8.8 The first round vote in the 2012 presidential election from the perspective of voter volatility 128 Table 8.9 The second round vote in the 2012 presidential election from the perspective of voter volatility 128
xvi LIST OF TABLES Table 8.10 Intended voting transfers in the second round of the presidential election Wave 10 129 Table 9.1 Voting intentions for François Bayrou throughout the campaign (the nine waves of the Présidoscopie ) 134 Table 9.2 François Bayrou s image throughout the campaign (nines waves of the Présidoscopie ) 136 Table 9.3 A measure of indecision in voting intentions (nine waves of the Présidoscopie ) according to intentions expressed in each Wave 137 Table 9.4 Comparison between voting intentions expressed in the nine Waves of the Présidoscopie and the vote recorded in the first round 140 Table 9.5 Frequency of voting intentions for Bayrou according to the vote in the first round of the presidential election (for the five main candidates plus abstentions) 141 Table 9.6 Provenance of voters attracted to Bayrou 141 Table 9.7 The socio-demographic composition of loyal and occasional Bayrou supporters 143 Table 9.8 Political composition of loyal and occasional Bayrou voters 144 Table 9.9 Second round Bayrou vote transfers and how they evolved 145 Table 10.1 Changes in electoral choices among potential electorates composed in November 2011 150 Table 10.2 Electoral choices among changing voters 152 Table 10.3 Electoral choices among changing voters who abandoned their initial voting intention 153 Table 10.4 The moment when the final voting choice is made 155 Table 10.5 Voter profiles in relation to the moment they made their final voting choice 157 Table 10.6 The Moment of Electoral Choice 159 Table 10.7 Detailed candidate image overview table 165 Table 11.1 Ranking of issues during presidential campaigns (the figures indicate the position in the ranking) 171 Table 11.2 The three main preoccupations in 1995, 2002, 2007 and 2012 172 Table 11.3 The unvarying trio of preoccupations in France 173 Table 11.4 The top three preoccupations for France among voters intending to choose: (as a percentage) 174 Table 11.5 Ranking of preoccupations for oneself personally (as a % of respondents) 175 Table 11.6 No variation in the top three preoccupations for the individual personally 176 Table 11.7 The top three preoccupations for the individual personally among voters intending to choose (as a %) 177
LIST OF TABLES xvii Table 11.8 Voters intending to choose Hollande 180 Table 11.9 Voters intending to choose Hollande 180 Table 11.10 When you think of developments in the economic and social situation in France during the coming months are you optimistic/pessimistic? (as a %) 182 Table 11.11 What do you think of France opening up to the world? 182 Table 11.12 Who is most capable of decreasing insecurity? (in %) 183 Table 11.13 Who is most able to deal with the economic crisis? 185 Table 11.14 Who is most capable of protecting French people from the consequences of the economic crisis? 185 Table 12.1 Narrowing the gap in the second round 192 Table 12.2 Changes in voting decisions for the second round between mid- April and May 6 195 Table 12.3 A sociology of changes in second round voting decisions between mid-april and May 6 196 Table 12.4 Second round target voters 197 Table 12.5 Sarkozy s difficulty in linking the protection vote and attitudes to the EU 199 Table 12.6 Sarkozy as judged by his electorate: Good for France, not good for their personal situation 201 Table 12.7 Hesitant Le Pen voters and their final choice to convert to Sarkozy or to Abstain or cast a blank vote 202 Table 12.8 The decrease in Hollande s credibility on improving the Table 12.9 country 204 Hesitant Bayrou voters and their final choice to convert to Sarkozy, to Hollande or to Abstain or cast a blank vote 205 Table 13.1 Images of François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy (Wave 10 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, non-responses excluded, n = 3967) 214 Table 13.2 Comparison of Hollande s and Sarkozy s images (Wave 10 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data, non-responses excluded, n = 3967) 215 Table 13.3 Table 14.1 Table 14.2 Declared Hollande votes, according to socio-demographic characteristics, controlled by image features (% in lines Wave 10 of the Présidoscopie, weighted data and as a % of votes cast) 217 Approval levels for different measures put in place according to social background 225 Changes in approval rating of Sarkozy and Hollande at the beginning of their respective mandates (IFOP barometer/ Paris-Match) 226