National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2011

National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2011 RESEARCH PAPER 11/40 19 May 2011 This Research Paper provides summary and detailed results of the fourth elections to the National Assembly for Wales, which took place on 5 May 2011. The paper provides data on voting trends and electoral turnout for constituencies, electoral regions and for Wales as a whole. This paper is a companion volume to Library Research Papers 11/41 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2011, 11/42 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 2011, 11/43 Local Elections: 2011 and 11/44 Alternative Vote Referendum. Oliver Hawkins

Recent Research Papers 11/35 Economic Indicators, May 2011 03.05.11 11/36 Energy Bill [HL] [Bill 167 of 2010-12] 04.05.11 11/37 Education Bill: Committee Stage Report 05.05.11 11/38 Social Indicators 06.05.11 11/39 Legislation (Territorial Extent) Bill: Committee Stage Report 11.05.11 11/41 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2011 19.05.11 11/42 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 2011 19.05.11 11/43 Local Elections: 2011 19.05.11 11/44 Alternative Vote Referendum 19.05.11 11/45 Unemployment by Constituency, May 2011 18.05.11 Research Paper 11/40 Contributing Authors: Oliver Hawkins, Social and General Statistics Jeremy Hardacre, Statistics Resource Unit This information is provided to Members of Parliament in support of their parliamentary duties and is not intended to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual. It should not be relied upon as being up to date; the law or policies may have changed since it was last updated; and it should not be relied upon as legal or professional advice or as a substitute for it. A suitably qualified professional should be consulted if specific advice or information is required. This information is provided subject to our general terms and conditions which are available online or may be provided on request in hard copy. Authors are available to discuss the content of this briefing with Members and their staff, but not with the general public. We welcome comments on our papers; these should be e-mailed to papers@parliament.uk. ISSN 1368-8456

Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Labour 3 1.2 Conservatives 4 1.3 Plaid Cymru 4 1.4 Liberal Democrats 4 1.5 United Kingdom Independence Party 5 1.6 Green Party 5 1.7 British National Party 5 1.8 Turnout 5 1.9 Composition of the Assembly 5 1.10 Note on data sources 5 Map: Seat winners 6 Map: Turnout 6 2 Summary of Results 7 Table 1: Election Results, 5 May 2011 7 Table 2: Election Results, 3 May 2007 8 Table 3: Share of the vote 9 Map: Conservative share of the constituency vote 10 Map: Labour share of the constituency vote 10 Map: Liberal Democrat share of the constituency vote 11 Map: Plaid Cymru share of the constituency vote 11 Party Summary: Conservatives 12 Party Summary: Labour 12 Party Summary: Liberal Democrats 13 Party Summary: Plaid Cymru 13 3 Constituency Ballot 14 Table 4: Votes and turnout by constituency 14 Table 5: Seats by majority from highest to lowest percentage majority 15 Table 6: Share of the vote by constituency 16 Table 7: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency 17 Table 8: Votes and shares by region 18 Table 9: Change in share of the vote by region 18

4 Regional Ballot 19 Table 10: Votes and turnout by constituency 19 Table 11: Share of the vote by constituency 20 Table 12: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency 21 Table 13: Votes and turnout by region 22 Table 14: Share of the vote by region 22 Table 15: Change in share of the vote by region 22 Table 16: Difference in share between constituency and regional ballots by region 22 Table 17: Seats won by seat type and region 23 Appendix 24 Table A1: Constituencies with highest and lowest turnout in each region 24 Table A2: Largest and smallest constituency majorities by party 25 Table A3: Highest and lowest shares of the constituency vote by party 26 Table A4: Assembly Members elected, May 2011 27

Summary Labour won half of the 60 seats in the National Assembly. The seats won by each party were as follows. Conservatives 14 Labour 30 Liberal Democrats 5 Plaid Cymru 11 Labour secured the highest share of the vote with 39.6%, up from 30.9% in 2007. The Conservatives polled 23.8%, up from 21.9%. Plaid Cymru s share of the vote fell to 18.6% from 21.7%, and the Liberal Democrats fell to 9.3% from 13.3%. Measured by share of the vote, this was the best performance for both Labour and the Conservatives in any National Assembly election so far. It was the worst performance for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats. Average turnout across all the constituencies and regions was 41.4%, down 2.0% points from 2007. The highest turnout was in Brecon and Radnorshire, where 52.9% of the electorate cast valid ballots. The lowest turnout was in Swansea East, where 31.4% of eligible voters participated. Following the elections, the composition of the Assembly is 36 men and 24 women. The number of women is four fewer than in the 2007 elections and six fewer than in the 2003 election, when there was an equal number of men and women elected. The number of minority ethnic Assembly Members grew from one to two. Vaughan Gething (Labour) is the second minority ethnic candidate to be elected to the Assembly. Mohammad Asghar was elected for Plaid Cymru in 2007 and was re-elected for the Conservatives in 2011. Results in Brief 2007 2011 Votes (Constituency + Regional) Conservative 427,884 21.9% 451,162 23.8% Labour 603,880 30.9% 751,612 39.6% Liberal Democrat 258,910 13.3% 176,608 9.3% Plaid Cymru 423,878 21.7% 352,706 18.6% Others 238,326 12.2% 166,053 8.7% 2007 2011 Change Seats Conservative 12 14 +2 Labour 26 30 +4 Liberal Democrat 6 5-1 Plaid Cymru 15 11-4 Others 1 0-1 Turnout 43.4% 41.4% -2.0% 1

National Assembly for Wales seats and share of the vote by party, 1999 to 2011 Conservative 1999 2003 2007 2011 Seats 9 11 12 14 Constituency 1 1 5 6 Regional 8 10 7 8 Share 16.2% 19.6% 21.9% 23.8% Constituency 15.8% 19.9% 22.4% 25.0% Regional 16.5% 19.2% 21.5% 22.5% Labour Seats 28 30 26 30 Constituency 27 30 24 28 Regional 1 0 2 2 Share 36.5% 38.3% 30.9% 39.6% Constituency 37.6% 40.0% 32.2% 42.3% Regional 35.4% 36.6% 29.6% 36.9% Liberal Democrat Seats 6 6 6 5 Constituency 3 3 3 1 Regional 3 3 3 4 Share 13.0% 13.4% 13.3% 9.3% Constituency 13.5% 14.1% 14.8% 10.6% Regional 12.5% 12.7% 11.7% 8.0% Plaid Cymru Seats 17 12 15 11 Constituency 9 5 7 5 Regional 8 7 8 6 Share 29.5% 20.5% 21.7% 18.6% Constituency 28.4% 21.2% 22.4% 19.3% Regional 30.5% 19.7% 21.0% 17.9% 2

1 Introduction The fourth set of elections to the National Assembly for Wales took place on Thursday, 5 May 2011, simultaneously with elections to the Scottish Parliament, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, local authority elections in England, and a referendum on changing the voting system in UK parliamentary elections. The system for electing members to the National Assembly is known as the Additional Member System. Voters are given two ballot papers. The first is used to elect each of 40 constituency Assembly Members (AMs) under the traditional first-past-the-post system. The second ballot paper is used to elect four AMs from each of five electoral regions. These additional members are elected so that the total representation from each geographical area, including those members elected under first-past-the-post, corresponds more closely to the share of the votes cast for each political party in the region. The fourth Assembly elections followed a referendum on extending the law-making powers of the National Assembly 1, held on 3 March 2011. The referendum asked the question: "Do you want the Assembly now to be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for? 63.5% of voters voted Yes. The turnout was 35.2%. The outcome of the referendum means the National Assembly can legislate on a larger number of issues than before, though still contained within the same 20 broad headings. The referendum was delivered as part of a coalition deal between Labour and Plaid Cymru, which had governed together in Wales since the last Assembly elections in 2007. The fourth Assembly elections were the first to take place since the fall of the Labour Government that had introduced devolved government to Wales in 1999. The circumstances of the elections were novel in several respects. It was the first time the Welsh Labour Party faced elections without a Labour government in Westminster, the first time Plaid Cymru faced Assembly elections as a party of government, and the first time the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats faced elections as members of a coalition government in Westminster. Prior to these elections there was an interesting symmetry between the balance of power in the UK Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. Of the four major political parties in Wales, the two that were in government in the Assembly were in opposition in Westminster, and the two that were in government in Westminster were in opposition in the Assembly. In both coalition partnerships it was the major partner that gained votes and seats in the 2011 Assembly elections, while the minor partner lost electoral support. Measured by share of the vote, it was the most successful Assembly election so far for both Labour and the Conservatives, and the worst so far for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats 2. 1.1 Labour Labour gained the highest share of the vote with 39.6% of the total vote, 42.3% of the constituency vote and 36.9% of the regional vote. Labour also won the highest number of seats (30), up four compared with the 2007 election. Labour s share of the vote increased by 10.1% points in the constituency ballot and by 7.3% points in the regional ballot. Labour s highest share of the vote in any region was in South Wales West, where their share of the constituency vote increased by 13.6% points, from 41.5% in 2007 to 55.1%. Labour s highest share of the vote in any constituency was in Aberavon, where they won 64.1% of the constituency ballot. 1 Further information relating to the referendum on extending the law-making powers of the National Assembly can be found in House of Commons Library Standard Note SN/PC/05897, Referendum in Wales: http://intranet.parliament.uk/research-online/research/briefing-papers/?bp-id=sn05897&ce=1 2 This is true for every measure of share of the vote. See historical results on page 2. 3

Labour s electoral support is concentrated in the south east of Wales. Labour won all of the constituencies in South Wales Central and South Wales West, and seven of the eight constituencies in South Wales East. However, Labour s strong performance in the constituency ballot diluted the strength of their regional vote in the allocation of regional list seats under the Additional Member system. They won only two regional list seats, both in the Mid and West Wales electoral region. 1.2 Conservatives The Conservatives polled 23.8% of the total vote, 25.0% of the constituency vote and 22.5 % of the regional vote. They gained two seats, taking their total representation in the Assembly to 14 AMs, making them the second largest party in the Assembly for the first time. The Conservatives highest share of the vote in any region was in North Wales, where their share of the constituency vote increased by 5.6% points, from 25.1% in 2007 to 30.7%. The Conservatives share of the constituency vote increased most significantly in Ynys Mon, where it rose by 16.2% points, from 13.0% to 29.2%. The Conservatives are the only party in the Assembly to have consistently increased their share of the vote in subsequent Assembly elections. Their share of the total vote has increased at every Assembly election since 1999 by an average of 2.5% points. At this election their share of the total vote increased by 1.9% points. The growth in support for the Conservatives at this election was not consistent across Wales however. In South Wales East their share of the total vote increased by less than a fifth of one percentage point and their share of the regional vote fell slightly. 1.3 Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru polled 18.6% of the total vote, 19.3% of the constituency vote and 17.9 % of the regional vote; their lowest share of the vote in any Assembly election so far and a fall of 3.1% points from their position in 2007. They won 11 seats in total, four fewer than in 2007. The largest reductions in their share of the vote took place in constituencies in which they have strong support: Dwyfor Meirionnydd (-13.1%), Aberconwy (-12.3%), and Llanelli (-10.7%). Plaid increased their support in some constituencies, notably in Arfon (+4.3%), where they won their highest share of the vote in any constituency, polling 56.7%. 1.4 Liberal Democrats The Liberal Democrats polled 9.3% of the total vote, 10.6% of the constituency vote and 8.0% of the regional vote, winning 5 seats. Overall, this is 4.0% points less and one seat fewer than in 2007, the worst performance for the Liberal Democrats in any Assembly election so far. It is a notable change from their long-term position in Wales, which had been relatively stable. In previous Assembly elections the Liberal Democrats consistently polled between 13.0% and 13.5% of the total vote. The largest reduction in the Liberal Democrats share of the vote took place in Cardiff Central (a constituency with a large student population) where their share of the constituency vote fell by 13.4% points, from 51.2% in 2007 to 37.7% 3. Across the whole of the South Wales Central region, which includes the four Cardiff constituencies, the Liberal Democrats share of the constituency vote by fell 7.7% points. The Liberal Democrats gained support in only three constituencies: Aberconwy, Clwyd South and Clwyd West. Their largest gain was in Aberconwy, where their share of the vote increased by 4.9% points, from 9.3% in 2007 to 14.2%. 3 The apparent discrepancy here is due to rounding. 4

1.5 United Kingdom Independence Party The UK Independence Party (UKIP) did not field any constituency candidates and instead invited voters to support them in the regional ballot. UKIP increased their share of the regional ballot in every region. Their share across Wales increased from 3.9% in 2007 to 4.6%. Their strongest regional performance was in South Wales East, where they polled 5.3% of the regional vote. 1.6 Green Party The Green Party s share of the regional vote was unchanged at around 3.5% 4. However their share of the vote increased notably in Cardiff Central and Cardiff West. In Cardiff Central they polled 9.1%, compared with 5.5% in 2007. In Cardiff West they polled 8.6%, compared with 5.3% in 2007. Across the whole of the South Wales Central region they polled 5.2% of the regional vote, their highest share in any region. 1.7 British National Party The British National Party s (BNP) share of the regional vote declined, from 4.3% in 2007 to 2.4%. Their highest share of the regional vote was in Blaenau Gwent, where they polled 4.9%. Their strongest regional performance was in South Wales East, where they polled 3.6% of the regional vote. 1.8 Turnout The overall turnout across Wales in both the constituency and regional ballots was 41.4%, down 2.0% points from 2007. Turnout was highest in Brecon and Radnorshire (52.9%) and lowest in Swansea East (31.4%). The region with the highest turnout was Mid and West Wales, with a turnout of 48.6%. The region with the lowest turnout was South Wales West, where turnout was 37.9%. 1.9 Composition of the Assembly The composition of the Assembly is 36 men and 24 women. The number of women is four fewer than in the 2007 elections and six fewer than in the 2003 elections, when there was an equal number of men and women elected The number of minority ethnic Assembly Members grew from one to two. Vaughan Gething (Labour) is the second minority ethnic candidate to be elected to the Assembly. Mohammad Asghar was first elected for Plaid Cymru in 2007 and was re-elected for the Conservatives in 2011, having become the first AM to cross the floor of the Assembly in December 2009. 1.10 Note on data sources Data in this research paper for the number of votes cast in each ballot and for the electorates in each constituency and region has been provided by local authorities and may differ from figures reported in the media. Turnout is measured as the number of valid votes divided by the electorate. Some Returning Officers include rejected ballots in their calculation of turnout, leading to higher measures of turnout than those reported here. 4 The Green Party s share of the regional vote was 3.47% in 2007 and 3.44% in 2011. 5

2 Summary of Results Table 1: Election Results, 5 May 2011 Constituency ballot Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Change Conservative 40 237,389 25.0% 6 +1 Labour 40 401,677 42.3% 28 +4 Liberal Democrat 40 100,259 10.6% 1-2 Plaid Cymru 40 182,907 19.3% 5-2 Others 16 27,021 2.8% 0-1 Total 176 949,253 100.0% 40 Regional ballot Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Change Conservative 42 213,773 22.5% 8 +1 Labour 20 349,935 36.9% 2 0 Liberal Democrat 25 76,349 8.0% 4 +1 Plaid Cymru 20 169,799 17.9% 6-2 Others 115 139,032 14.7% 0 0 Total 222 948,888 100.0% 20 Total Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Change Conservative 82 451,162 23.8% 14 +2 Labour 60 751,612 39.6% 30 +4 Liberal Democrat 65 176,608 9.3% 5-1 Plaid Cymru 60 352,706 18.6% 11-4 Others 131 166,053 8.7% 0-1 Total 398 1,898,141 100.0% 60 7

Table 2: Election Results, 3 May 2007 Constituency ballot Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Conservative 40 218,730 22.4% 5 Labour 40 314,925 32.2% 24 Liberal Democrat 40 144,410 14.8% 3 Plaid Cymru 40 219,121 22.4% 7 Others 37 80,906 8.3% 1 Total 197 978,092 100.0% 40 Regional ballot Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Conservative 38 209,154 21.5% 7 Labour 24 288,955 29.6% 2 Liberal Democrat 31 114,500 11.7% 3 Plaid Cymru 21 204,757 21.0% 8 Others 176 157,420 16.1% 0 Total 290 974,786 100.0% 20 Total Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Conservative 78 427,884 21.9% 12 Labour 64 603,880 30.9% 26 Liberal Democrat 71 258,910 13.3% 6 Plaid Cymru 61 423,878 21.7% 15 Others 213 238,326 12.2% 1 Total 487 1,952,878 100.0% 60 8

Table 3: Share of the vote 2011 Assembly election Constituency Region All votes Conservative 25.0% 22.5% 23.8% Labour 42.3% 36.9% 39.6% Liberal Democrat 10.6% 8.0% 9.3% Plaid Cymru 19.3% 17.9% 18.6% Others 2.8% 14.7% 8.7% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2007 Assembly election Constituency Region All votes Conservative 22.4% 21.5% 21.9% Labour 32.2% 29.6% 30.9% Liberal Democrat 14.8% 11.7% 13.3% Plaid Cymru 22.4% 21.0% 21.7% Others 8.3% 16.1% 12.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Change 2007-2011 Constituency Region All votes Conservative +2.6% +1.1% +1.9% Labour +10.1% +7.2% +8.7% Liberal Democrat -4.2% -3.7% -4.0% Plaid Cymru -3.1% -3.1% -3.1% Others -5.4% -1.5% -3.5% 9

Conservative Seats won Share of the vote Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total Mid and West Wales 3 0 3 26.9% 25.2% 26.0% North Wales 2 2 4 30.7% 26.8% 28.7% South Wales Central 0 2 2 24.5% 22.0% 23.2% South Wales East 1 2 3 21.5% 19.6% 20.5% South Wales West 0 2 2 20.2% 17.8% 19.0% Total 6 8 14 25.0% 22.5% 23.8% Change in share of the vote between 2007 and 2011 by region Mid and West Wales North Wales South Wales Central South Wales East South Wales West Constituency ballot Regional ballot All regions 6% 4% 2% 0% +2% +4% +6% Labour Seats won Share of the vote Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total Mid and West Wales 1 2 3 23.4% 22.5% 23.0% North Wales 5 0 5 38.0% 32.2% 35.1% South Wales Central 8 0 8 49.9% 41.0% 45.5% South Wales East 7 0 7 49.4% 45.7% 47.5% South Wales West 7 0 7 55.1% 46.5% 50.8% Total 28 2 30 42.3% 36.9% 39.6% Change in share of the vote between 2007 and 2011 by region Mid and West Wales North Wales South Wales Central South Wales East South Wales West Constituency ballot Regional ballot All regions 15% 10% 5% 0% +5% +10% +15% 12

Liberal Democrats Seats won Share of the vote Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total Mid and West Wales 1 1 2 17.2% 12.8% 15.0% North Wales 0 1 1 8.0% 5.9% 6.9% South Wales Central 0 1 1 10.5% 7.9% 9.2% South Wales East 0 0 0 7.5% 6.0% 6.8% South Wales West 0 1 1 8.4% 6.9% 7.7% Total 1 4 5 10.6% 8.0% 9.3% Change in share of the vote between 2007 and 2011 by region Mid and West Wales North Wales South Wales Central South Wales East South Wales West Constituency ballot Regional ballot All regions 10% 5% 0% +5% +10% Plaid Cymru Seats won Share of the vote Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total Mid and West Wales 3 1 4 29.3% 26.8% 28.0% North Wales 2 1 3 22.9% 21.4% 22.2% South Wales Central 0 1 1 14.7% 13.7% 14.2% South Wales East 0 2 2 12.7% 12.1% 12.4% South Wales West 0 1 1 15.0% 13.8% 14.4% Total 5 6 11 19.3% 17.9% 18.6% Change in share of the vote between 2007 and 2011 by region Mid and West Wales North Wales South Wales Central South Wales East South Wales West Constituency ballot Regional ballot All regions 10% 5% 0% +5% +10% 13

3 Constituency Ballot Table 4: Votes and turnout by constituency CON LAB LD PC Others Total Electorate Turnout Majority Mid and West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire 9,444 4,797 12,201 1,906 0 28,348 53,546 52.9% 2,757 Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 5,635 8,353 1,339 12,501 0 27,828 54,243 51.3% 4,148 Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 10,095 8,591 1,097 8,373 0 28,156 58,435 48.2% 1,504 Ceredigion 2,755 2,544 10,243 12,020 1,514 29,076 56,988 51.0% 1,777 Dwyfor Meirionnydd 4,239 2,623 1,000 9,656 3,225 20,743 44,669 46.4% 5,417 Llanelli 2,880 10,359 548 10,279 2,004 26,070 58,838 44.3% 80 Montgomeryshire 10,026 2,609 7,702 2,596 0 22,933 48,675 47.1% 2,324 Preseli Pembrokeshire 11,541 9,366 2,085 4,226 0 27,218 57,758 47.1% 2,175 North Wales Aberconwy 6,888 5,206 2,873 5,321 0 20,288 44,978 45.1% 1,567 Alyn and Deeside 6,397 11,978 1,725 1,710 959 22,769 61,751 36.9% 5,581 Arfon 2,209 4,630 801 10,024 0 17,664 41,093 43.0% 5,394 Clwyd South 5,841 8,500 1,977 3,719 0 20,037 54,499 36.8% 2,659 Clwyd West 10,890 6,642 1,846 5,775 0 25,153 57,980 43.4% 4,248 Delyn 7,814 10,695 1,767 2,918 0 23,194 53,996 43.0% 2,881 Vale of Clwyd 7,680 11,691 1,088 2,597 0 23,056 56,232 41.0% 4,011 Wrexham 5,031 8,368 2,692 2,596 0 18,687 53,516 34.9% 3,337 Ynys Mon 7,032 6,307 759 9,969 0 24,067 49,431 48.7% 2,937 South Wales Central Cardiff Central 3,559 8,954 8,916 1,690 509 23,628 64,347 36.7% 38 Cardiff North 14,602 16,384 1,595 1,850 0 34,431 66,934 51.4% 1,782 Cardiff South and Penarth 7,555 13,814 2,786 3,324 0 27,479 75,038 36.6% 6,259 Cardiff West 7,167 13,067 1,942 5,551 0 27,727 64,219 43.2% 5,900 Cynon Valley 1,531 11,626 492 5,111 0 18,760 52,133 36.0% 6,515 Pontypridd 3,659 11,864 4,170 3,139 501 23,333 60,028 38.9% 7,694 Rhondda 969 12,650 497 5,911 0 20,027 52,532 38.1% 6,739 Vale of Glamorgan 11,971 15,746 1,513 4,024 0 33,254 71,602 46.4% 3,775 South Wales East Blaenau Gwent 1,066 12,926 367 1,098 4,754 20,211 53,230 38.0% 9,120 Caerphilly 3,368 12,521 1,062 7,597 1,022 25,570 62,049 41.2% 4,924 Islwyn 2,497 12,116 653 4,527 1,115 20,908 54,893 38.1% 7,589 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 1,224 10,483 2,480 1,701 3,432 19,320 55,031 35.1% 7,051 Monmouth 15,087 8,970 2,937 2,263 744 30,001 64,857 46.3% 6,117 Newport East 4,500 9,888 3,703 1,369 0 19,460 55,120 35.3% 5,388 Newport West 7,791 12,011 1,586 1,626 0 23,014 63,180 36.4% 4,220 Torfaen 3,306 10,318 852 2,716 5,136 22,328 61,126 36.5% 6,088 South Wales West Aberavon 2,704 12,104 1,278 2,793 0 18,879 50,754 37.2% 9,311 Bridgend 6,724 13,499 1,736 2,076 0 24,035 59,104 40.7% 6,775 Gower 8,002 12,866 2,656 3,249 0 26,773 61,909 43.2% 4,864 Neath 2,780 12,736 983 6,346 1,004 23,849 57,533 41.5% 6,390 Ogmore 2,945 12,955 985 3,379 0 20,264 55,442 36.5% 9,576 Swansea East 2,754 11,035 1,673 2,346 1,102 18,910 60,246 31.4% 8,281 Swansea West 5,231 9,885 3,654 3,035 0 21,805 62,345 35.0% 4,654 14

Table 5: Seats by majority from highest to lowest percentage majority Majority 1st 2nd Votes Rank % Rank Aberavon David Rees LAB PC 9,311 2 49.3% 1 Ogmore Janice Gregory LAB PC 9,576 1 47.3% 2 Blaenau Gwent Alun Davies LAB IND 9,120 3 45.1% 3 Swansea East Mike Hedges CON CON 8,281 4 43.8% 4 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Huw Lewis LAB IND 7,051 7 36.5% 5 Islwyn Gwyn Price LAB PC 7,589 6 36.3% 6 Cynon Valley Christine Chapman LAB PC 6,515 10 34.7% 7 Rhondda Leighton Andrews LAB PC 6,739 9 33.6% 8 Pontypridd Mick Antoniw LAB LD 7,694 5 33.0% 9 Arfon Alun Ffred Jones PC LAB 5,394 18 30.5% 10 Bridgend Carwyn Jones LAB CON 6,775 8 28.2% 11 Newport East John Griffiths LAB CON 5,388 19 27.7% 12 Torfaen Lynne Neagle LAB IND 6,088 14 27.3% 13 Neath Gwenda Thomas LAB PC 6,390 11 26.8% 14 Dwyfor Meirionnydd Dafydd Elis-Thomas PC CON 5,417 17 26.1% 15 Alyn and Deeside Carl Sargeant LAB CON 5,581 16 24.5% 16 Cardiff South and Penarth Vaughan Gething LAB CON 6,259 12 22.8% 17 Swansea West Julie James LAB CON 4,654 22 21.3% 18 Cardiff West Mark Drakeford LAB CON 5,900 15 21.3% 19 Monmouth Nick Ramsay CON LAB 6,117 13 20.4% 20 Caerphilly Jeff Cuthbert LAB PC 4,924 20 19.3% 21 Newport West Rosemary Butler LAB CON 4,220 24 18.3% 22 Gower Edwina Hart LAB CON 4,864 21 18.2% 23 Wrexham Lesley Griffiths LAB CON 3,337 28 17.9% 24 Vale of Clwyd Ann Jones LAB CON 4,011 26 17.4% 25 Clwyd West Darren Millar CON LAB 4,248 23 16.9% 26 Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr Rhodri Glyn Thomas PC LAB 4,148 25 14.9% 27 Clwyd South Ken Skates LAB CON 2,659 32 13.3% 28 Delyn Sandy Mewies LAB CON 2,881 30 12.4% 29 Ynys Mon Ieuan Wyn Jones PC CON 2,937 29 12.2% 30 Vale of Glamorgan Jane Hutt LAB CON 3,775 27 11.4% 31 Montgomeryshire Russell George CON LD 2,324 33 10.1% 32 Brecon and Radnorshire Kirsty Williams LD CON 2,757 31 9.7% 33 Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Davies CON LAB 2,175 34 8.0% 34 Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders CON PC 1,567 37 7.7% 35 Ceredigion Elin Jones PC LD 1,777 36 6.1% 36 Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Angela Burns CON LAB 1,504 38 5.3% 37 Cardiff North Julie Morgan LAB CON 1,782 35 5.2% 38 Llanelli Keith Davies LAB PC 80 39 0.3% 39 Cardiff Central Jenny Rathbone LAB LD 38 40 0.2% 40 15

Table 6: Share of the vote by constituency CON LAB LD PC Others Total Majority Mid and West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire 33.3% 16.9% 43.0% 6.7% 0.0% 100.0% 9.7% Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 20.2% 30.0% 4.8% 44.9% 0.0% 100.0% 14.9% Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 35.9% 30.5% 3.9% 29.7% 0.0% 100.0% 5.3% Ceredigion 9.5% 8.7% 35.2% 41.3% 5.2% 100.0% 6.1% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 20.4% 12.6% 4.8% 46.6% 15.5% 100.0% 26.1% Llanelli 11.0% 39.7% 2.1% 39.4% 7.7% 100.0% 0.3% Montgomeryshire 43.7% 11.4% 33.6% 11.3% 0.0% 100.0% 10.1% Preseli Pembrokeshire 42.4% 34.4% 7.7% 15.5% 0.0% 100.0% 8.0% North Wales Aberconwy 34.0% 25.7% 14.2% 26.2% 0.0% 100.0% 7.7% Alyn and Deeside 28.1% 52.6% 7.6% 7.5% 4.2% 100.0% 24.5% Arfon 12.5% 26.2% 4.5% 56.7% 0.0% 100.0% 30.5% Clwyd South 29.2% 42.4% 9.9% 18.6% 0.0% 100.0% 13.3% Clwyd West 43.3% 26.4% 7.3% 23.0% 0.0% 100.0% 16.9% Delyn 33.7% 46.1% 7.6% 12.6% 0.0% 100.0% 12.4% Vale of Clwyd 33.3% 50.7% 4.7% 11.3% 0.0% 100.0% 17.4% Wrexham 26.9% 44.8% 14.4% 13.9% 0.0% 100.0% 17.9% Ynys Mon 29.2% 26.2% 3.2% 41.4% 0.0% 100.0% 12.2% South Wales Central Cardiff Central 15.1% 37.9% 37.7% 7.2% 2.2% 100.0% 0.2% Cardiff North 42.4% 47.6% 4.6% 5.4% 0.0% 100.0% 5.2% Cardiff South and Penarth 27.5% 50.3% 10.1% 12.1% 0.0% 100.0% 22.8% Cardiff West 25.8% 47.1% 7.0% 20.0% 0.0% 100.0% 21.3% Cynon Valley 8.2% 62.0% 2.6% 27.2% 0.0% 100.0% 34.7% Pontypridd 15.7% 50.8% 17.9% 13.5% 2.1% 100.0% 33.0% Rhondda 4.8% 63.2% 2.5% 29.5% 0.0% 100.0% 33.6% Vale of Glamorgan 36.0% 47.4% 4.5% 12.1% 0.0% 100.0% 11.4% South Wales East Blaenau Gwent 5.3% 64.0% 1.8% 5.4% 23.5% 100.0% 45.1% Caerphilly 13.2% 49.0% 4.2% 29.7% 4.0% 100.0% 19.3% Islwyn 11.9% 57.9% 3.1% 21.7% 5.3% 100.0% 36.3% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 6.3% 54.3% 12.8% 8.8% 17.8% 100.0% 36.5% Monmouth 50.3% 29.9% 9.8% 7.5% 2.5% 100.0% 20.4% Newport East 23.1% 50.8% 19.0% 7.0% 0.0% 100.0% 27.7% Newport West 33.9% 52.2% 6.9% 7.1% 0.0% 100.0% 18.3% Torfaen 14.8% 46.2% 3.8% 12.2% 23.0% 100.0% 27.3% South Wales West Aberavon 14.3% 64.1% 6.8% 14.8% 0.0% 100.0% 49.3% Bridgend 28.0% 56.2% 7.2% 8.6% 0.0% 100.0% 28.2% Gower 29.9% 48.1% 9.9% 12.1% 0.0% 100.0% 18.2% Neath 11.7% 53.4% 4.1% 26.6% 4.2% 100.0% 26.8% Ogmore 14.5% 63.9% 4.9% 16.7% 0.0% 100.0% 47.3% Swansea East 14.6% 58.4% 8.8% 12.4% 5.8% 100.0% 43.8% Swansea West 24.0% 45.3% 16.8% 13.9% 0.0% 100.0% 21.3% 16

Table 7: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency Turnout Change in share of vote 2007-2011 2011 2007 Change CON LAB LD PC Others Mid and West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire 52.9% 51.9% +1.1% -0.3% +8.2% -9.2% +1.2% 0.0% Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 51.3% 55.7% -4.4% +4.3% +5.5% -1.2% -8.6% 0.0% Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 48.2% 49.7% -1.5% +5.8% +0.8% -2.4% +0.5% -4.7% Ceredigion 51.0% 55.6% -4.6% +1.6% +3.7% -0.9% -7.9% +3.5% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.4% 47.4% -0.9% +0.8% +0.2% -3.5% -13.1% +15.5% Llanelli 44.3% 49.2% -4.8% +1.1% +3.7% -1.7% -10.7% +7.7% Montgomeryshire 47.1% 46.1% +1.0% +13.6% +4.5% -5.4% -2.5% -10.1% Preseli Pembrokeshire 47.1% 50.9% -3.8% +3.8% +7.0% -1.6% -9.2% 0.0% North Wales Aberconwy 45.1% 46.9% -1.8% +3.6% +3.9% +4.9% -12.3% 0.0% Alyn and Deeside 36.9% 35.5% +1.3% +5.2% +13.8% -2.3% +0.9% -17.5% Arfon 43.0% 49.1% -6.1% +3.0% -0.6% -2.7% +4.3% -4.0% Clwyd South 36.8% 37.6% -0.8% -0.2% +7.4% +0.4% -1.4% -6.2% Clwyd West 43.4% 45.7% -2.3% +9.3% -1.5% +0.8% -4.4% -4.3% Delyn 43.0% 41.1% +1.9% +1.4% +11.5% -4.7% -2.1% -6.1% Vale of Clwyd 41.0% 40.3% +0.7% -2.7% +14.3% -5.5% -6.2% 0.0% Wrexham 34.9% 38.5% -3.6% +9.7% +16.0% -2.3% +4.3% -27.7% Ynys Mon 48.7% 52.1% -3.4% +16.2% +8.8% -0.2% +1.7% -26.5% South Wales Central Cardiff Central 36.7% 36.2% +0.5% +1.1% +16.0% -13.4% -1.1% -2.5% Cardiff North 51.4% 51.6% -0.2% -2.8% +16.7% -8.1% -2.0% -3.7% Cardiff South and Penarth 36.6% 37.7% -1.1% -0.0% +12.5% -10.2% -2.2% 0.0% Cardiff West 43.2% 41.9% +1.3% +1.0% +8.5% -8.2% -1.2% 0.0% Cynon Valley 36.0% 38.5% -2.5% -2.2% +5.3% -2.5% -0.6% 0.0% Pontypridd 38.9% 40.6% -1.8% +2.8% +9.0% -9.6% -4.3% +2.1% Rhondda 38.1% 42.2% -4.1% -0.3% +4.9% -4.0% -0.6% 0.0% Vale of Glamorgan 46.4% 48.9% -2.5% +2.1% +13.2% -6.6% -1.8% -6.9% South Wales East Blaenau Gwent 38.0% 44.5% -6.6% +1.2% +32.6% -3.9% +0.6% -30.6% Caerphilly 41.2% 42.2% -1.0% +1.9% +14.4% -2.0% +3.9% -18.2% Islwyn 38.1% 43.1% -5.0% +4.3% +20.3% -1.7% +0.1% -23.0% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 35.1% 38.9% -3.8% +0.9% +17.2% -2.4% -3.2% -12.5% Monmouth 46.3% 47.4% -1.1% -1.8% +6.5% -5.0% +0.5% -0.2% Newport East 35.3% 37.5% -2.2% +0.5% +18.7% -8.7% -1.5% -9.0% Newport West 36.4% 40.3% -3.9% -0.7% +11.7% -5.0% -3.3% -2.7% Torfaen 36.5% 37.8% -1.3% -4.7% +3.5% -7.6% +0.3% +8.6% South Wales West Aberavon 37.2% 39.8% -2.6% +4.6% +14.8% -0.3% -2.5% -16.6% Bridgend 40.7% 41.3% -0.6% -1.9% +15.9% -8.0% -6.0% 0.0% Gower 43.2% 45.0% -1.7% +0.1% +13.9% -0.7% -6.4% -6.9% Neath 41.5% 43.4% -2.0% -0.1% +10.0% -5.1% -9.1% +4.2% Ogmore 36.5% 40.1% -3.6% +2.8% +12.3% -4.6% -0.3% -10.3% Swansea East 31.4% 35.2% -3.8% +4.8% +16.9% -8.7% -3.1% -9.9% Swansea West 35.0% 37.3% -2.4% +4.9% +13.0% -9.0% -1.7% -7.2% 17

Table 8: Votes and shares by region CON LAB LD PC Others Total Electorate Turnout Mid and West Wales 56,615 49,242 36,215 61,557 6,743 210,372 433,152 48.6% North Wales 59,782 74,017 15,528 44,629 959 194,915 473,476 41.2% South Wales Central 51,013 104,105 21,911 30,600 1,010 208,639 506,833 41.2% South Wales East 38,839 89,233 13,640 22,897 16,203 180,812 469,486 38.5% South Wales West 31,140 85,080 12,965 23,224 2,106 154,515 407,333 37.9% All regions 237,389 401,677 100,259 182,907 27,021 949,253 2,290,280 41.4% Mid and West Wales 26.9% 23.4% 17.2% 29.3% 3.2% 100.0% North Wales 30.7% 38.0% 8.0% 22.9% 0.5% 100.0% South Wales Central 24.5% 49.9% 10.5% 14.7% 0.5% 100.0% South Wales East 21.5% 49.4% 7.5% 12.7% 9.0% 100.0% South Wales West 20.2% 55.1% 8.4% 15.0% 1.4% 100.0% All regions 25.0% 42.3% 10.6% 19.3% 2.8% 100.0% Table 9: Change in share of the vote by region CON LAB LD PC Others Mid and West Wales +3.8% +4.2% -2.9% -6.4% +1.3% North Wales +5.6% +8.6% -1.2% -2.6% -10.4% South Wales Central +0.4% +11.0% -7.7% -2.0% -1.7% South Wales East +0.8% +14.8% -4.3% -0.2% -11.0% South Wales West +2.1% +13.6% -5.1% -4.4% -6.3% All regions +2.6% +10.1% -4.2% -3.1% -5.4% 18

4 Regional Ballot Table 10: Votes and turnout by constituency CON LAB LD PC Others Total Electorate Turnout Mid and West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire 9,181 5,091 8,271 2,071 3,652 28,266 53,546 52.8% Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 4,941 7,419 1,085 11,129 3,273 27,847 54,243 51.3% Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 9,113 7,769 1,076 6,975 3,232 28,165 58,435 48.2% Ceredigion 3,718 3,049 7,789 10,596 3,899 29,051 56,988 51.0% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 4,665 3,059 981 9,465 2,593 20,763 44,669 46.5% Llanelli 3,036 10,119 682 9,045 3,183 26,065 58,838 44.3% Montgomeryshire 8,478 2,489 5,501 2,865 3,572 22,905 48,675 47.1% Preseli Pembrokeshire 9,773 8,353 1,462 4,238 3,464 27,290 57,758 47.2% North Wales Aberconwy 6,153 4,905 1,653 4,948 2,625 20,284 44,978 45.1% Alyn and Deeside 6,018 9,749 1,290 2,042 3,671 22,770 61,751 36.9% Arfon 1,994 4,327 653 8,402 2,313 17,689 41,093 43.0% Clwyd South 4,853 7,525 1,600 3,435 2,647 20,060 54,499 36.8% Clwyd West 9,194 5,827 1,356 5,732 3,069 25,178 57,980 43.4% Delyn 6,819 8,690 1,420 3,044 3,155 23,128 53,996 42.8% Vale of Clwyd 6,847 9,148 854 3,015 3,086 22,950 56,232 40.8% Wrexham 4,448 6,954 2,127 2,463 2,695 18,687 53,516 34.9% Ynys Mon 5,875 5,552 554 8,620 3,451 24,052 49,431 48.7% South Wales Central Cardiff Central 3,820 7,778 6,130 1,738 4,241 23,707 64,347 36.8% Cardiff North 12,471 12,846 2,060 2,836 4,178 34,391 66,934 51.4% Cardiff South and Penarth 6,467 11,452 2,033 2,973 4,791 27,716 75,038 36.9% Cardiff West 6,187 10,413 1,523 4,581 5,062 27,766 64,219 43.2% Cynon Valley 1,378 9,730 507 4,254 2,357 18,226 52,133 35.0% Pontypridd 3,313 10,561 2,435 3,196 3,839 23,344 60,028 38.9% Rhondda 861 10,919 436 4,906 2,874 19,996 52,532 38.1% Vale of Glamorgan 11,254 11,746 1,390 4,122 4,675 33,187 71,602 46.3% South Wales East Blaenau Gwent 1,404 12,567 641 1,869 3,551 20,032 53,230 37.6% Caerphilly 3,016 11,251 917 6,717 3,659 25,560 62,049 41.2% Islwyn 2,161 10,804 657 3,640 3,675 20,937 54,893 38.1% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 1,554 10,779 1,374 2,363 3,229 19,299 55,031 35.1% Monmouth 12,717 8,173 2,361 1,891 4,945 30,087 64,857 46.4% Newport East 4,226 8,691 2,398 1,209 3,072 19,596 55,120 35.6% Newport West 6,751 9,759 1,303 1,546 3,865 23,224 63,180 36.8% Torfaen 3,630 10,675 1,147 2,615 4,222 22,289 61,126 36.5% South Wales West Aberavon 2,030 10,671 860 2,391 2,703 18,655 50,754 36.8% Bridgend 6,184 10,135 1,536 2,281 3,736 23,872 59,104 40.4% Gower 7,479 10,234 2,027 3,369 3,706 26,815 61,909 43.3% Neath 2,578 11,514 948 5,733 3,148 23,921 57,533 41.6% Ogmore 2,455 10,892 774 2,733 3,283 20,137 55,442 36.3% Swansea East 2,196 9,902 1,572 2,158 3,216 19,044 60,246 31.6% Swansea West 4,535 8,418 2,966 2,593 3,425 21,937 62,345 35.2% 19

Table 11: Share of the vote by constituency CON LAB LD PC Others Total Mid and West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire 32.5% 18.0% 29.3% 7.3% 12.9% 100.0% Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 17.7% 26.6% 3.9% 40.0% 11.8% 100.0% Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 32.4% 27.6% 3.8% 24.8% 11.5% 100.0% Ceredigion 12.8% 10.5% 26.8% 36.5% 13.4% 100.0% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 22.5% 14.7% 4.7% 45.6% 12.5% 100.0% Llanelli 11.6% 38.8% 2.6% 34.7% 12.2% 100.0% Montgomeryshire 37.0% 10.9% 24.0% 12.5% 15.6% 100.0% Preseli Pembrokeshire 35.8% 30.6% 5.4% 15.5% 12.7% 100.0% North Wales Aberconwy 30.3% 24.2% 8.1% 24.4% 12.9% 100.0% Alyn and Deeside 26.4% 42.8% 5.7% 9.0% 16.1% 100.0% Arfon 11.3% 24.5% 3.7% 47.5% 13.1% 100.0% Clwyd South 24.2% 37.5% 8.0% 17.1% 13.2% 100.0% Clwyd West 36.5% 23.1% 5.4% 22.8% 12.2% 100.0% Delyn 29.5% 37.6% 6.1% 13.2% 13.6% 100.0% Vale of Clwyd 29.8% 39.9% 3.7% 13.1% 13.4% 100.0% Wrexham 23.8% 37.2% 11.4% 13.2% 14.4% 100.0% Ynys Mon 24.4% 23.1% 2.3% 35.8% 14.3% 100.0% South Wales Central Cardiff Central 16.1% 32.8% 25.9% 7.3% 17.9% 100.0% Cardiff North 36.3% 37.4% 6.0% 8.2% 12.1% 100.0% Cardiff South and Penarth 23.3% 41.3% 7.3% 10.7% 17.3% 100.0% Cardiff West 22.3% 37.5% 5.5% 16.5% 18.2% 100.0% Cynon Valley 7.6% 53.4% 2.8% 23.3% 12.9% 100.0% Pontypridd 14.2% 45.2% 10.4% 13.7% 16.4% 100.0% Rhondda 4.3% 54.6% 2.2% 24.5% 14.4% 100.0% Vale of Glamorgan 33.9% 35.4% 4.2% 12.4% 14.1% 100.0% South Wales East Blaenau Gwent 7.0% 62.7% 3.2% 9.3% 17.7% 100.0% Caerphilly 11.8% 44.0% 3.6% 26.3% 14.3% 100.0% Islwyn 10.3% 51.6% 3.1% 17.4% 17.6% 100.0% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 8.1% 55.9% 7.1% 12.2% 16.7% 100.0% Monmouth 42.3% 27.2% 7.8% 6.3% 16.4% 100.0% Newport East 21.6% 44.4% 12.2% 6.2% 15.7% 100.0% Newport West 29.1% 42.0% 5.6% 6.7% 16.6% 100.0% Torfaen 16.3% 47.9% 5.1% 11.7% 18.9% 100.0% South Wales West Aberavon 10.9% 57.2% 4.6% 12.8% 14.5% 100.0% Bridgend 25.9% 42.5% 6.4% 9.6% 15.7% 100.0% Gower 27.9% 38.2% 7.6% 12.6% 13.8% 100.0% Neath 10.8% 48.1% 4.0% 24.0% 13.2% 100.0% Ogmore 12.2% 54.1% 3.8% 13.6% 16.3% 100.0% Swansea East 11.5% 52.0% 8.3% 11.3% 16.9% 100.0% Swansea West 20.7% 38.4% 13.5% 11.8% 15.6% 100.0% 20

Table 12: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency Turnout Change in share of vote 2007-2011 2011 2007 Change CON LAB LD PC Others Mid and West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire 52.8% 51.7% +1.0% -0.5% +5.3% -2.2% -0.6% -2.0% Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 51.3% 55.7% -4.3% +3.1% +5.2% -0.4% -4.4% -3.5% Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 48.2% 49.6% -1.4% +3.8% +2.4% -1.9% -1.7% -2.7% Ceredigion 51.0% 55.4% -4.4% +0.3% +2.7% +0.9% -5.1% +1.2% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.5% 47.2% -0.7% +3.9% +1.4% -0.5% -4.1% -0.6% Llanelli 44.3% 48.9% -4.6% +1.6% +6.4% -0.9% -5.8% -1.3% Montgomeryshire 47.1% 46.1% +1.0% +4.7% +2.8% +1.1% -3.3% -5.3% Preseli Pembrokeshire 47.2% 50.9% -3.6% +1.3% +6.7% -1.2% -6.7% +0.0% North Wales Aberconwy 45.1% 46.7% -1.6% +1.4% +4.3% +1.0% -8.2% +1.5% Alyn and Deeside 36.9% 35.3% +1.5% +0.3% +6.9% -5.0% +0.8% -3.0% Arfon 43.0% 48.9% -5.9% +1.5% +1.2% -1.7% -3.9% +2.9% Clwyd South 36.8% 37.6% -0.8% -1.9% +8.1% -0.8% -1.4% -4.1% Clwyd West 43.4% 45.6% -2.1% +2.9% +0.9% -0.9% -4.3% +1.4% Delyn 42.8% 41.0% +1.8% -0.4% +7.6% +0.4% -5.6% -2.0% Vale of Clwyd 40.8% 40.1% +0.7% -3.0% +10.3% -3.9% -4.4% +0.9% Wrexham 34.9% 38.2% -3.2% +4.5% +6.9% -6.7% +1.3% -5.9% Ynys Mon 48.7% 51.7% -3.0% +3.3% +3.5% -0.4% -6.2% -0.2% South Wales Central Cardiff Central 36.8% 36.2% +0.6% +0.6% +11.2% -11.1% -1.8% +1.2% Cardiff North 51.4% 51.5% -0.1% -2.8% +10.2% -6.8% -0.8% +0.2% Cardiff South and Penarth 36.9% 37.8% -0.8% -0.2% +10.2% -9.0% -1.2% +0.1% Cardiff West 43.2% 41.6% +1.6% +0.6% +5.6% -6.0% -1.9% +1.7% Cynon Valley 35.0% 38.7% -3.7% +0.4% +2.2% -3.5% +1.8% -0.9% Pontypridd 38.9% 40.5% -1.6% +1.7% +7.5% -6.6% -4.5% +1.9% Rhondda 38.1% 42.2% -4.1% -0.2% +1.7% -2.2% -0.7% +1.4% Vale of Glamorgan 46.3% 48.9% -2.6% +0.8% +7.5% -4.9% -2.3% -1.1% South Wales East Blaenau Gwent 37.6% 43.8% -6.2% +0.2% +18.9% -5.2% -4.0% -9.9% Caerphilly 41.2% 42.0% -0.8% -0.3% +6.7% -2.6% +2.1% -6.0% Islwyn 38.1% 42.9% -4.8% +0.6% +9.3% -3.2% -4.1% -2.6% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 35.1% 38.9% -3.8% +0.4% +13.7% -6.9% -4.6% -2.6% Monmouth 46.4% 47.5% -1.1% -4.0% +6.5% -3.5% +0.3% +0.6% Newport East 35.6% 37.4% -1.8% -0.1% +13.7% -10.6% -2.4% -0.5% Newport West 36.8% 40.4% -3.6% -1.7% +9.0% -5.0% -1.5% -0.9% Torfaen 36.5% 37.8% -1.3% -1.1% +7.5% -6.0% +0.6% -1.0% South Wales West Aberavon 36.8% 39.7% -2.9% +0.8% +11.7% -4.1% -4.8% -3.6% Bridgend 40.4% 41.2% -0.8% +2.3% +10.9% -8.9% -2.0% -2.3% Gower 43.3% 43.9% -0.6% +0.4% +9.8% -2.2% -4.6% -3.4% Neath 41.6% 43.1% -1.5% +0.7% +10.6% -3.2% -5.2% -2.9% Ogmore 36.3% 39.8% -3.5% +1.7% +7.3% -4.3% -2.5% -2.2% Swansea East 31.6% 35.2% -3.6% +2.6% +14.4% -8.8% -4.2% -4.0% Swansea West 35.2% 37.4% -2.2% +2.3% +12.6% -7.9% -4.0% -3.0% 21

Table 13: Votes and turnout by region CON LAB LD PC Others Total Electorate Turnout Mid and West Wales 52,905 47,348 26,847 56,384 26,868 210,352 433,152 48.6% North Wales 52,201 62,677 11,507 41,701 26,712 194,798 473,476 41.1% South Wales Central 45,751 85,445 16,514 28,606 32,017 208,333 506,833 41.1% South Wales East 35,459 82,699 10,798 21,850 30,218 181,024 469,486 38.6% South Wales West 27,457 71,766 10,683 21,258 23,217 154,381 407,333 37.9% All regions 213,773 349,935 76,349 169,799 139,032 948,888 2,290,280 41.4% Table 14: Share of the vote by region CON LAB LD PC Others Total Mid and West Wales 25.2% 22.5% 12.8% 26.8% 12.8% 100.0% North Wales 26.8% 32.2% 5.9% 21.4% 13.7% 100.0% South Wales Central 22.0% 41.0% 7.9% 13.7% 15.4% 100.0% South Wales East 19.6% 45.7% 6.0% 12.1% 16.7% 100.0% South Wales West 17.8% 46.5% 6.9% 13.8% 15.0% 100.0% All regions 22.5% 36.9% 8.0% 17.9% 14.7% 100.0% Table 15: Change in share of the vote by region CON LAB LD PC Others Mid and West Wales +2.3% +4.1% -0.5% -4.2% -1.7% North Wales +1.2% +5.8% -1.9% -4.3% -0.8% South Wales Central +0.3% +7.0% -6.1% -1.7% +0.5% South Wales East -0.4% +9.9% -5.1% -1.6% -2.9% South Wales West +1.7% +10.7% -5.5% -3.9% -3.1% All regions +1.1% +7.2% -3.7% -3.1% -1.5% Table 16: Difference in share between constituency and regional ballots by region CON LAB LD PC Others Turnout Mid and West Wales +1.8% +0.9% +4.5% +2.5% -9.6% +0.0% North Wales +3.9% +5.8% +2.1% +1.5% -13.2% +0.0% South Wales Central +2.5% +8.9% +2.6% +0.9% -14.9% +0.1% South Wales East +1.9% +3.7% +1.6% +0.6% -7.7% -0.0% South Wales West +2.4% +8.6% +1.5% +1.3% -13.7% +0.0% All regions +2.5% +5.4% +2.5% +1.4% -11.8% +0.0% 22

Table 17: Seats won by seat type and region Region Mid & West North South Wales South Wales South Wales Total Wales Wales Central East West Constituency seats Conservative 3 2 0 1 0 6 Labour 1 5 8 7 7 28 Liberal Democrat 1 0 0 0 0 1 Plaid Cymru 3 2 0 0 0 5 Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0 All parties 8 9 8 8 7 40 Regional seats Conservative 0 2 2 2 2 8 Labour 2 0 0 0 0 2 Liberal Democrat 1 1 1 0 1 4 Plaid Cymru 1 1 1 2 1 6 Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0 All parties 4 4 4 4 4 20 All seats Conservative 3 4 2 3 2 14 Labour 3 5 8 7 7 30 Liberal Democrat 2 1 1 0 1 5 Plaid Cymru 4 3 1 2 1 11 Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0 All parties 12 13 12 12 11 60 23

Appendix Table A1: Constituencies with highest and lowest turnout in each region Region Constituency Turnout Highest turnout Mid and West Wales Brecon & Radnorshire 52.9% North Wales Ynys Mon 48.7% South Wales Central Cardiff North 51.4% South Wales East Monmouth 46.3% South Wales West Gower 43.2% Lowest Turnout Mid and West Wales Llanelli 44.3% North Wales Wrexham 34.9% South Wales Central Cynon Valley 36.0% South Wales East Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 35.1% South Wales West Swansea East 31.4% 24

Table A2: Largest and smallest constituency majorities by party Constituency Absolute majority Largest Conservative Monmouth 6,117 Labour Ogmore 9,576 Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 2,757 Plaid Cymru Dwyfor Meirionnydd 5,417 Smallest Conservative Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 1,504 Labour Cardiff Central 38 Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 2,757 Plaid Cymru Ceredigion 1,777 Constituency Percentage majority Largest Conservative Monmouth 20.4% Labour Aberavon 49.3% Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 9.7% Plaid Cymru Arfon 30.5% Smallest Conservative Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 5.3% Labour Cardiff Central 0.2% Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 9.7% Plaid Cymru Ceredigion 6.1% 25

Table A3: Highest and lowest shares of the constituency vote by party Highest Lowest CON Monmouth 50.3% Rhondda 4.8% Montgomeryshire 43.7% Blaenau Gwent 5.3% Clwyd West 43.3% Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 6.3% Cardiff North 42.4% Cynon Valley 8.2% LAB Aberavon 64.1% Ceredigion 8.7% Blaenau Gwent 64.0% Montgomeryshire 11.4% Ogmore 63.9% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 12.6% Rhondda 63.2% Brecon & Radnorshire 16.9% LD Brecon & Radnorshire 43.0% Blaenau Gwent 1.8% Cardiff Central 37.7% Llanelli 2.1% Ceredigion 35.2% Rhondda 2.5% Montgomeryshire 33.6% Cynon Valley 2.6% PC Arfon 56.7% Cardiff North 5.4% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.6% Blaenau Gwent 5.4% Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 44.9% Brecon & Radnorshire 6.7% Ynys Mon 41.4% Newport East 7.0% 26

Table A4: Assembly Members elected, May 2011 Elected Member Constituency Mid and West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire * Kirsty Williams Liberal Democrat Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr * Rhodri Glyn Thomas Plaid Cymru Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire * Angela Burns Conservative Ceredigion * Elin Jones Plaid Cymru Dwyfor Meirionnydd * Dafydd Elis-Thomas Plaid Cymru Llanelli Keith Davies Labour Montgomeryshire Russell George Conservative Preseli Pembrokeshire * Paul Davies Conservative North Wales Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders Conservative Alyn and Deeside * Carl Sargeant Labour Arfon * Alun Ffred Jones Plaid Cymru Clwyd South Ken Skates Labour Clwyd West * Darren Millar Conservative Delyn * Sandy Mewies Labour Vale of Clwyd * Ann Jones Labour Wrexham * Lesley Griffiths Labour Ynys Mon * Ieuan Wyn Jones Plaid Cymru South Wales Central Cardiff Central Jenny Rathbone Labour Cardiff North Julie Morgan Labour Cardiff South and Penarth Vaughan Gething Labour Cardiff West Mark Drakeford Labour Cynon Valley * Christine Chapman Labour Pontypridd Mick Antoniw Labour Rhondda * Leighton Andrews Labour Vale of Glamorgan * Jane Hutt Labour South Wales East Blaenau Gwent * Alun Davies Labour Caerphilly * Jeff Cuthbert Labour Islwyn Gwyn Price Labour Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney * Huw Lewis Labour Monmouth * Nick Ramsay Conservative Newport East * John Griffiths Labour Newport West * Rosemary Butler Labour Torfaen * Lynne Neagle Labour South Wales West Aberavon David Rees Labour Bridgend * Carwyn Jones Labour Gower * Edwina Hart Labour Neath * Gwenda Thomas Labour Ogmore * Janice Gregory Labour Swansea East Mike Hedges Labour Swansea West Julie James Labour Regional List Mid and West Wales * Joyce Watson Labour Mid and West Wales Rebecca Evans Labour Mid and West Wales Simon Thomas Plaid Cymru Mid and West Wales William Powell Liberal Democrat North Wales * Mark Isherwood Conservative North Wales Llyr Gryffudd Plaid Cymru North Wales Antoinette Sandbach Conservative North Wales Aled Roberts Liberal Democrat South Wales Central * David Melding Conservative South Wales Central * Andrew Davies Conservative South Wales Central * Leanne Wood Plaid Cymru South Wales Central John Dixon Liberal Democrat South Wales East * Jocelyn Davies Plaid Cymru South Wales East * William Graham Conservative South Wales East * Mohammad Asghar Conservative South Wales East Lindsay Whittle Plaid Cymru South Wales West Suzy Davies Conservative South Wales West * Bethan Jenkins Plaid Cymru South Wales West Byron Davies Conservative South Wales West * Peter Black Liberal Democrat Party * Assembly Member immediately prior to 2011 election. Of the 60 AMs elected 37 had been been members immediately prior to the 2011 election.