The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy The New U.S. Demographics Audrey Singer Funders Network on Population, Reproductive Health and Rights November 10, 2003
QUESTIONS How has the demography of race and ethnicity in the United States changed over time? What are the implications of some of these trends? How can we better serve immigrant and ethnic communities through public policies and programs?
America s Changing Composition CONTINUING HISTORY OF IMMIGRATION PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY RATES FAMILY FORMATION AND INTERMARRIAGE DATA COLLECTION
CONTINUING HISTORY OF IMMIGRATION
The share of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is lower at the end of the 20th century than at the start Population in Millions 35 30 25 20 15 10 13.6% 14.7% 13.2% 11.6% Foreign-born Population (in Millions) Percent of total Population 8.8% 6.9% 6.2% 5.4% 4.7% 7.9% 11.1% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Percent of Total Population 5 2% 0 10.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 11.6 10.3 9.7 9.6 14.1 19.8 31.1 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000* 0%
Steep declines in European source countries during the century 4% 50% 3% 86% 10% 13% 1900-1920 Europe Asia Latin America Africa 34% 1980-2000
DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY RATES
Total fertility rate among Latinas is higher than other groups [TFR: The average number of children that a woman gives birth to in her lifetime] Total Fertility Rate Hispanic Black and American Indian Replacement Level Asian White Total Fertility Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2001 3.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2002
INTERRACIAL MARRIAGE
Interracial Marriage One in 15 marriages is interracial in 2000, a 65 percent increase from 1990. Nearly 3 of every 10 marriages involving Latinos or Asians is a mixed-race marriage. Nearly half of all U.S. interracial marriages include a Latino. Source: William H. Frey, 2003
DATA COLLECTION
Defining Race and Ethnicity Yes answer here = Hispanic (regardless of race) Individuals can check more than one race Source: U.S. Census Bureau
What are the implications of some of these trends?
U.S. race and ethnic population will continue to change U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity 1970-2000 2000 70.6 12.3 12.5 4.0 1990 75.6 12 8.8 2.9 1980 79.7 11.7 6.4 1.6 1970 83.5 11.1 4.5 0.8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% White Black Hispanic Asian Source: Marta Tienda, 2002, p. 589
Black and Latino populations are nearly equal in size Two or More Races 1.6 Black 12.1 Asian 3.4 American Indian 0.7 Some Other Race 0.2 Native Hawaiian 0.1 Latino 12.5 White 69.1 U.S Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 Source: Census 2000 SF1
Mexico is the largest national origin group NonHispanic 87.5% Hispanic 12.5% Mexican 58.5% Other 28.4% Puerto Rican 9.6% Cuban 3.5% U.S. Hispanic Population, 2000 Source: Census 2000 SF1
New Locations of Immigrants in the United States
Former gateways are no longer major destinations Percent of Foreign Born in Cities by Gateway Types, 1900-2000 40 35 30 Percent foreign born 25 20 15 10 Former 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
Continuous gateways have always attracted more than their fair share of immigrants 40 Percent of Foreign Born in Cities by Gateway Types, 1900-2000 35 Continuous 30 Percent foreign born 25 20 15 10 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
Post-WWII gateways became destinations during the past 50 years 40 Percent of Foreign Born in Cities by Gateway Types, 1900-2000 Post-WWII 35 30 Percent foreign born 25 20 15 10 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
Emerging gateways experienced very recent and rapid growth in their foreignborn population 40 Percent of Foreign Born in Cities by Gateway Types, 1900-2000 35 30 Percent foreign born 25 20 15 Emerging 10 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
Re-Emerging gateways are once again major destinations for immigrants 40 Percent of Foreign Born in Cities by Gateway Types, 1900-2000 35 30 Percent foreign born 25 20 15 Re-Emerging 10 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
Emerging gateways represent a new context for immigrant integration 40 35 Percent of Foreign Born in Cities by Gateway Types, 1900-2000 Continuous Post-WWII 30 Percent foreign born 25 20 15 10 Re-Emerging Emerging 5 Former 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
Immigration Gateways are shifting Established Gateways Emerging Gateways Chicago 61 % Los Angeles 19 % Miami 31 % New York 37 % San Diego 41 % San Francisco 26 % Atlanta 262 % Charlotte 315 % Fort Worth-Arlington 131 % Las Vegas 248 % Orlando 140 % Salt Lake City 174 % Growth in Metro Foreign-Born Population, 1990-2000 Source: Suro and Singer, Latino Growth in Metropolitan America, Brookings Institution and Pew Hispanic Center, July 2002.
Ten Metro Areas with Largest Latino Populations, 2000 Number of Latinos Percent of Total Population Growth from 1980-2000 Los Angeles 4,242,213 45% 105% New York 2,339,836 25% 60% Chicago 1,416,584 17% 143% Miami 1,291,737 57% 123% Houston 1,248,586 30% 211% Riverside-San Bernardino 1,228,962 38% 324% Orange County 875,579 31% 206% Phoenix 817,012 25% 261% San Antonio 816,037 51% 67% Dallas 810,499 23% 324% TOTAL 15,087,045 31% 130%
"Hypergrowth" New Latino Destinations, 2000 Number of Latinos Percent of Total Population Growth from 1980-2000 Raleigh-Durham, NC 72,580 6% 1180% Atlanta, GA 268,851 7% 995% Greensboro, NC 62,210 5% 962% Charlotte, NC 77,092 5% 932% Orlando, FL 271,627 17% 859% Las Vegas, NV 322,038 21% 753% Nashville, TN 40,139 3% 630% Fort Lauderdale, FL 271,652 17% 578% Sarasota, FL 38,682 7% 538% Portland, OR 142,444 7% 437% Greenville, SC 26,167 3% 397% West Palm Beach, FL 140,675 12% 397% Washington, DC 432,003 9% 346%
Latino population in New Destinations heavily male 18-64 year-old Latino males for every 100 Latino females, 2000 200 180 188 160 140 141 120 100 103 113 80 60 40 20 0 Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data Los Angeles Houston Portland Raleigh
Schools in Emerging Gateways will eventually see children of immigrants Latino Share of Child and Adult Population, Selected Cities, 2000 Washington 5% 10% Latino share - under 18 Latino Share - 18 and over Raleigh 7% 9% Houston 20% 48% Chicago 14% 35% Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
How can we better serve these communities through public policies and programs?
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