REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE AMERICAS: THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS Conclusions, inter-regional comparisons, and the way forward Barbara Kotschwar, Peterson Institute for International Economics
REAL GDP GROWTH (ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE)
TRADE (VOLUME OF EXPORTS) TOOK A BIG HIT IN 2009 BUT IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AFTER THE SEVERE DOWNTURN IN 2009
COMMODITY PRICES (2005=100) Source = IMF WEO database
ECONOMIC GROWTH DIFFERENCE FROM 2009 TO 007, MAJOR GEOGRAPHIC AREAS 2007 2008 2009 2009-2007 CIS and Mongolia 8.6 5.5-5.8-14.4 Asian NICs 5.7 1.6-5.2-10.9 Central and Eastern Europe 5.4 2.9-5.0-10.4 LAC 5.7 4.2-2.6-8.3 Developing Asia 10.6 7.7 5.5-5.1 Middle East 6.3 5.9 2.0-4.3 World 5.2 3.2-1.4-6.6 Source: IMF and Goldstein and Xie (2009)
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: CORRELATION BETWEEN OPENNESS TO TRADE AND CHANGE IN GDP GROWTH FROM 2007-2009 trade as a % of GDP 0 100 200 300 400 Estonia Lithuania Equatorial Guinea Angola Latvia Ukraine Armenia Singapore Hong Kong, China Luxembourg Seychelles Guyana Malaysia Slovak Republic Malta Belgium Bahrain Bulgaria Czech Hungary Ireland Panama Republic United Vietnam Lesotho Jordan Arab Swaziland Papua Emirates New Guinea Cambodia Moldova Slovenia Thailand Netherlands Djibouti MontenegroMongolia Belarus Honduras Kyrgyz Republic Macedonia, Austria Barbados Belize Fiji BhutanBosnia Herzegovina Liberia St. FYR Lucia Mauritius Mauritania Zimbabwe Congo, Rep. Azerbaijan Paraguay Solomon Costa St. Turkmenistan Vincent Islands Rica Denmark Dominica Croatia Gabon Georgia Brunei Darussalam Botswana Kazakhstan Grenada Namibia Nicaragua Saudi Tunisia and FinlandGermany Ghana Iceland Chile Albania Canada Cape Bolivia Chad Cote d'ivoire Dominican El Salvador Israel Kuwait Qatar OmanArabia the Grenadines Sweden Switzerland St. Kitts Togo and Nevis Korea, China Rep. Lao Gambia, The Guatemala Verde Algeria Afghanistan Congo, Ecuador Republic Greece Egypt, Guinea PDR Madagascar Philippines Poland RomaniaSerbia Tajikistan Trinidad Vanuatu and Tobago Norway Mozambique Portugal Guinea-Bissau Lebanon Morocco Italy Burundi Dem. Arab Rep. Iran, France Kenya Nigeria Suriname Senegal Malawi Mexico South New Africa Sri Lanka Syrian Arab Republic Islamic Zealand Argentina Colombia Ethiopia India Australia Indonesia Mali Tonga Russian FederationPeru Spain Turkey Uruguay United Kingdom Uzbekistan Zambia Venezuela, RB Sierra Cameroon Haiti Bangladesh Rep. Sudan Tanzania Uganda Comoros Central Eritrea Leone Benin Japan Burkina Nepal Pakistan Rwanda African FasoRepublic Brazil United States -30-20 -10 0 10 change in GDP growth 2009-2007 Source: IMF WEO and World Bank WDI Fitted values OPEN
Economic growth 2009 and 2009-2007, selected LAC countries Country 2007 2008 2009 2009-2007 Mexico 3.3 1.3-7.3-10.7 Paraguay 6.8 5.8-4.5-11.3 Jamaica 1.5-1.0-3.6-5.1 Barbados 3.4 0.2-3.0-6.4 Argentina 8.7 6.8-2.5-11.2 El Salvador 4.7 2.5-2.5-7.2 Honduras 6.3 4.0-2.0-8.3 Venezuela 8.4 4.8-2.0-10.4 Chile 4.7 3.2-1.7-6.4 Ecuador 2.5 6.5-1.0-3.5 Trinidad and Tobago 4.6 2.3-0.8-5.4 Brazil 5.7 5.1-0.7-6.3 Colombia 7.5 2.5-0.3-7.8 Guatemala 6.3 4.0 0.4-5.9 Dominican Republic 8.5 5.3 0.5-8.0 Uruguay 7.6 8.9 0.6-7.0 Peru 8.9 9.8 1.5-7.4 Bolivia 4.6 6.1 2.8-1.8
IN LAC THERE IS A CORRELATION BETWEEN COUNTRIES THAT ARE VERY OPEN TO TRADE AND THOSE MOST AFFECTED BY THE CRISIS trade as a % of GDP 0 50 100 150 Mexico Honduras St. Lucia Belize Barbados St. Vincent and the Dominica Grenadines Paraguay Grenada St. Kitts Costa and Nicaragua Rica Nevis Trinidad and Tobago Chile El Salvador Suriname Bolivia Dominican Republic Ecuador Guatemala Venezuela, RB Uruguay Peru Haiti Colombia Brazil -8-6 -4-2 0 2 GDP growth 2009 Fitted values OPEN Source: IMF WEO and World Bank
IN DEVELOPING ASIA THIS CORRELATION IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED: trade as a % of GDP 0 100 200 300 400 Singapore Hong Kong, China Malaysia Vietnam Papua New Guinea Thailand Cambodia Fiji Solomon Islands Brunei Darussalam Philippines Vanuatu Korea, Rep. Lao PDR Tonga Sri Lanka Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Pakistan Bhutan China Afghanistan -5 0 5 10 15 Gdp growth in 2009 Fitted values OPEN
INFLATION
GROWTH OF EXPORT VOLUME
SOVEREIGN SPREADS, BY REGION (EMBI SOVEREIGN SPREADS OVER US TREASURY YIELDS)