June 25, 2013 Voters Show Senators a Way Out of a Bad Vote Findings from surveys in Alaska, Arizona, New Hampshire, Nevada, and North Dakota To: From: Interested Parties Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, Americans for Responsible Solutions The U.S. Senate s collective decision to vote against background checks ignored the 81 percent of voters in national surveys that support background checks 1. This violation of public will has been well documented by public polling. Five state surveys in states represented by senators who voted against S649 also show huge public support for background checks, even in gunfriendly states like Alaska and North Dakota. But this research goes further than that. It also shows, despite their previous vote, voters strongly supporting their U.S. Senator changing his or her mind. Politically, these Senators would be better off in some cases, significantly better off changing their vote than continuing to support an unpopular position. This research shows a path for these Senators to arrive at a different conclusion on background checks. The following findings are from 5 surveys conducted in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Dakota. All are registered voters, except for North Dakota where the sample is of voters who have participated in an election in the last three years. The New Hampshire survey was conducted May 21-23; all others were from May 28 to June 3, 2013. Margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Alaska: The Background Check Exception Despite mixed views on gun laws in general, Alaska voters make an exception for background checks. A majority of Alaska voters oppose making gun laws stronger, most (45 percent) would simply keep them as they are now. Despite this sentiment, an impressive majority (72 percent favor, just 25 percent oppose) support background checks on all gun sales, including those sold on the Internet and at gun shows. This majority includes gun owners (75 1 Pew Research Center, May 1-5, 2013. WORLD HEADQUARTERS 10 G Street, NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS 405 Carrington House 6 Hertford Street London UK W1J 7SU LATIN AMERICAN HEADQUARTERS Cabrera 6060, 7 D C1414 BHN Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina www.gqrr.com www.greenbergresearch.com
Americans For Responsible Solutions 2 percent favor), Republicans (59 percent), NRA households (56 percent) and voters in rural parts of the state (57 percent). The key to the Alaska politics, of course, is the huge independent and nonaffiliated vote. Seventy-two percent of independents support background checks, as do 75 percent of unaffiliated voters. Figure 1 Background Checks Favorability Alaska voters also believe it is possible to protect the rights of Americans to own firearms and strengthen laws to keep guns out of the hands of the wrong people at the same time. A 72 percent majority of gun owners believe laws are not necessarily hostile to the Second Amendment; this is how they can make an exception for background checks. While most voters (72 percent) do not know how Senator Begich voted on background checks, once told, a majority of voters want him to take the significant step of switching his vote. In a statement pair exercise, voters heard two statements: one focused on how Begich should change his vote if background checks came up in the Senate again, the other strongly argued that Begich should stick to his initial vote. A 51 percent majority of voters, including a majority of both gun owners and independent voters, believe Begich should switch his vote and support background checks.
Americans For Responsible Solutions 3 Figure 2 Background Checks Vote Statement Pair A third of voters (33 percent) report they would be more likely to support Begich if he supported background checks, 20 percent would be less likely. A plurality, 46 percent, says it will make no difference in their vote, including 54 percent of Republicans. Arizona: Broad Consensus on Guns Voters want background checks. Arizona voters unequivocally support background checks. Support crosses party lines, gender, age, race, and every other subgroup. Eighty-one percent of voters favor requiring background checks on all gun sales including those sold on the internet and at gun shows. This includes 90 percent of Democrats, 66 percent of Republicans (and 66 percent of Republican primary voters), and 83 percent of independents. Anglos (81 percent) and Hispanics (85 percent) support background checks, as do gun owners (78 percent) and NRA households (54 percent).
Americans For Responsible Solutions 4 Figure 3 Background Checks Favorability Voters in Arizona also do not see support for background checks as inconsistent with gun rights because they do not regard any regulation on firearms as an attack on the 2 nd Amendment. Almost three-fourths (72 percent) believe it is possible to protect the rights of Americans to own guns while also strengthening laws to keep guns out of the wrong hands. This includes 67 percent of gun owners, 62 percent of NRA households, and 66 percent of Republicans. Only 43 percent know how Senator Flake voted on background checks. The fact that a majority of voters do not know how he voted is fortunate for him. Among all voters, 45 percent are less likely to support Flake after learning he voted against background checks; only 15 percent are more likely. Among independents, 37 percent are less likely to support him; only 14 percent are more likely. Among women, the split is 52-12 percent. Voters are very open to Senator Flake changing his mind. In a statement pair exercise, voters heard two statements: one focused on how Flake should change his vote if background checks came up in the Senate again, the other strongly argued that Flake should stick to his vote and not change his mind. By 31 point margin (61-30 percent), voters overwhelmingly believe that Flake should switch his vote. The choice produced similar results in many key groups: 58-36 percent with gun owners, 58-30 percent among independent voters, 65-27 percent with independent women, and 62-27 in the Phoenix suburbs.
Americans For Responsible Solutions 5 Figure 4 Background Checks Vote Statement Pair Voters (32 percent) are more likely to support Flake if he switches his votes; only 15 percent are less likely. Independents and gun owners are more likely than not to support Flake if he switches, with 24 percent of independents and 28 percent of gun owners more likely to support him. Almost half, 47 percent, of Republicans say that if Flake supported background checks now, it would make no difference on their vote. More Republicans (28 percent), say a changed vote would make them more likely to support Flake than less likely (22 percent). Nevada: Bi-partisan Consensus on Guns Support for background checks is unambiguous. Like most western states, voters here are no strangers to guns. At least 40 percent own a firearm. However, 84 percent support requiring background checks on all gun sales, including those sold on the internet. A 68 percent majority strongly endorse this step. Background checks find support among Democrats (92 percent), as well as Republicans (75 percent favor), gun owners (83 percent) and non-gun owners (88 percent), NRA households (69 percent) and non-nra households (87 percent), Anglo voters (83 percent) and Hispanic voters (86 percent). Among the swing voters who decide political outcomes in this state, background checks are overwhelmingly supported: 80 percent among independent voters, 83 percent among unaffiliated voters, 86 percent among independent women, 81 percent among voters currently undecided in the race for U.S. Senator.
Americans For Responsible Solutions 6 Figure 5 Background Checks Favorability Figure 6 Background Checks Favorability Among Swing Voters
Americans For Responsible Solutions 7 Only 20 percent of Nevada voters know how Senator Heller voted on the Senate bill expanding background checks. Seven percent mistakenly believe he voted in favor of background checks and 73 percent admit they do not know. Voters current unawareness of his record on this issue buys him a temporary reprieve and arguably some latitude in future votes. When all voters learn Heller voted against background checks, 40 percent pronounce they are less likely to support him, including 26 percent who are much less likely to support him. Just 18 percent are more likely. His current position does not buy him credibility among gun owners (36 percent less likely, 22 percent more likely). Nevada voters strongly want Senator Heller to change his mind and vote for background checks. Voters heard two statements: one focused on the reasons Heller should support expanded background checks the next time it was up for a vote and one that strongly urged him to continue to oppose background checks. By better than a 2:1 margin, voters urge him to switch his vote (64 to 31 percent). Gun owners differ little on this measure (62 percent want him to vote for background checks) and even a plurality of Republicans lobby for a different position (48 percent should switch his vote, 45 percent should not switch his vote). Figure 7 Background checks vote statement pair A 37 percent plurality report being more likely to support Heller if he switched his vote, just 17 percent are less likely. This switch could benefit him among gun owners (34 percent more likely, 18 percent less likely), as well as among swing voters (34 percent more likely, 18 percent less likely among non-affiliated voters), but without causing him real problems with Republican base voters (27 percent more likely, 26 percent less likely).
Americans For Responsible Solutions 8 New Hampshire: Broad Support Across Party Lines for Background Checks Voters in New Hampshire are not anti-gun, but 84 percent support background checks. Of this 84 percent, 69 percent strongly favor background checks on all gun sales, including those sold on the internet and at gun shows. This support crosses party lines and is not dependent on gun ownership. Background checks are supported by Democrats (93 percent), Republicans (79 percent), independents (81 percent), Republican Primary voters (70 percent), gun owners (82 percent) and NRA households (60 percent). Women are particularly supportive, with 89 percent favoring background checks (84 percent of independent women, 83 percent of Republican women). Figure 8 Background Checks Favorability But, New Hampshire voters are not hostile to guns. At least 37 percent of Granite Staters own a gun. However, they do not necessarily believe that strengthening gun laws infringe on 2 nd Amendment Rights. Three quarters of voters believe that it is possible to protect the rights of gun owners and strengthen laws to keep guns out of the hands of the wrong people at the same time. This is true for gun owners, NRA households, independents, Republicans, and Republican primary voters as well. The media attention surrounding the background check vote in Congress has created an informed electorate. Seventy-one percent have seen, heard, or read a lot or a fair amount about background checks recently. More important, voters know how Ayotte voted: 62 percent know she voted against expanding background checks, while only a third are unsure.
Americans For Responsible Solutions 9 Forty-four percent are less likely to vote for her because of her opposition (35 percent much less likely); only 18 percent are more likely to support the Senator. Among independent voters, 43 percent are less likely to support her (20 percent more likely), and among gun owners, 40 percent are less likely (21 percent more likely). A convincing majority of voters want Senator Ayotte to change her mind and support background checks. Voters were read two statements: one that focused on the reasons Ayotte should support expanded background checks the next time it was up for a vote and one that strongly urged her to continue to oppose background checks. Fifty-seven percent think she should change her vote, including 57 percent of independents, 56 percent of gun owners, and even 39 percent of Republicans. Figure 9 Background Checks Vote Statement Pair Voters (31 percent) are more likely to support Senator Ayotte if she changes her mind and supports background checks; only 11 percent are less likely. There would be very little chance of blowback: 55 percent say a switch would make no difference in how they feel about Ayotte. Among gun owners, 62 percent say the Senator s changed vote will make no difference on their decision to support her, while a quarter say they would be more likely to support her. Only 10 percent of Republicans and even only 26 percent of NRA households would be less likely to support Senator Ayotte if she supported background checks.
Americans For Responsible Solutions 10 North Dakota: Background Checks Consistent with Values At least 53 percent report owning at least one firearm (13 percent refused the question). Seventy-six percent of gun owners hunt; half use their guns for target practice. Guns are ingrained in North Dakota s culture and voters here are understandably protective of their rights. But there is still strong and broad support for background checks. An impressive 79 percent majority support background checks on all gun sales, including those sold on the internet and at gun shows, with 58 percent strongly supporting expanded checks. Support crosses party lines, with 93 percent of Democrats, 75 percent of Republicans, and 75 percent of independent voters. Eighty percent of gun owners favor background checks as well as 56 percent of NRA households. Figure 10 Background Checks Favorability North Dakotans support background checks despite their affection for guns because they understand that not every regulation on firearms is an attack on 2 nd Amendment rights. More than two-thirds (69 percent) believe that it is possible to protect the rights of Americans to own guns and strengthen laws to keep guns out of the hands of the wrong people at the same time. Nearly 70 percent do not know that Senator Heitkamp voted against expanding background checks. When told, nearly half (49 percent) want her to switch her vote. In a statement pair exercise, voters heard two statements: one focused on how Heitkamp should change her vote if background checks came up in the Senate again, the other strongly argued that Heitkamp should stick to her initial vote. A 49 percent plurality of voters, including gun owners and independent voters, believe Heitkamp should switch her vote and support background checks.
Americans For Responsible Solutions 11 Figure 11 Background Checks Vote Statement Pair There is little risk of blow back if Heitkamp changed her position on background checks. If the Senator changed her mind and voted for background checks, 52 percent say it would make no difference in their support for or against her. This is true for 52 percent of gun owners, 59 percent of Republicans, 49 percent of independents. In fact, more would be more likely to vote for her (27 percent) than less likely (20 percent).