The EU-Arms Embargo Against China 1. The development of weapon-trade-sanctions by western countries against China 1.1. the establishment of the Eu-arms embargo 1.2. U.S Sanctions on Arms Sales to China 2. the effectiveness of EU- and US-embargos 3. The EU arms- embargo from the Chinese perspective 3.1. domestic defense industry s state of development 3.2. Arms procurement from the Russian Federation 3.3. Potential benefits from a lift of the arms embargo 4. The arms-embargo from the EU-perspective 4.1. differing attitudes among the EU-member states 4.2. economics aspects concerning the repeal of the embargo 4.3. geostrategic aspects concerning the repeal of the embargo 4.4. A possible compromise by lifting the embargo and establishing a Code of Conduct for weapon sales 1. The development of weapon-trade-sanctions by western countries against China 1.1 Establishment of Weapon Emargo by the European Union After the Tiananmen incident in June 1989 many western countries reconsidered their relations to China. The European council issued a declaration condemning the violent actions of Chinese military against protestors and ceasing all kind of military cooperation and arm sales: In the present circumstances the European Council thinks it necessary to adopt the following measures interruption by the member states of the community of military cooperation and an embargo on trade in arms with China. [the European Council]
Beyond the trade embargo further actions by the European Union included the suspension high-level contacts, reduction of cultural, scientific and technical cooperation programs, and the prolongation of visas to Chinese students [CRS Report for Congress] However the declaration of the European Council does not define a legal binding of the embargo leaving great space for interpretation by each of the European member states. 1.1 Establishment Sanction on Weapon Trade by the United States Having supported the People s Liberation army with various cooperation projects like the modernization of artillery ammunition production facilities and modernization of avionics in F-8 fighters [CRS Report for Congress] the Tiananmen Incident marked a major turning point in US-China military cooperation and Sino- American diplomatic relations. Being declared by President George H. W. Bush the sanctions included the cancellation of all military-cooperation projects and the prohibition of arm sales of all kind. Later the ban on arms sales was incorporated in the Foreign Relations Authorizations Act and the Arms Export Control Act. In comparison to the European arms embargo the American sanctions are legally binding and therefore much more comprehensive. 5. The effectiveness of EU- and US-embargos Both the US arms-trade sanctions and the European arms embargo turned out to be insufficient in preventing arm sales to the PRc completely. According to the US Arms Control Association a non-governmental institution, arms with an estimated volume of about 350million dollars have been sold to PRC in the period of time from 1989 bis 1998 despite the export restrictions. While the US-sanctions are clearly defined through laws, the European embargo rather resembles an expression of intent having only poor effectiveness. In fact in year 2010 arms and defence related goods being exported to China valued 218 million, whereas the peak of Eu-arm sales occurred in 2004 with a total of 413 million euros. The reason why the arms-embargo could be evaded so easily is that it only restricts the selling of arms but excludes the export of so-called dual use items, goods that can have both military and civil applications. The majority of defence-related exports to PRC belongs to said category.
Table 1: Examples for defense-related exports from the EU to PRC The EU arms- embargo from the Chinese perspective Domestic defense industry s state of development China s endeavor urging the EU to lift their arms-embargo originates from the fact that the PRC government has a strong strategic interest in improving their domestic defense industries capabilities. In most areas China s domestic defense industry is comparably underdeveloped. Nevertheless China is the eighth biggest weapon exporter in the world with an annual turnover of 600 million US-dollars according to US estimates. Resulting from a lack of own expertise most major defense-system developments are carried out as jointventures co-production together with Russian and European companies. As can be seen in table 1 major weapon programs in which China was provided high-technology key-components from European companies included the F-7 and FC-1 fighter-jet program as well as 054-class destroyer program.
Arms procurement from the Russian Federation As a result from US and European s ban on arms sales China turned to Russia for purchasing advanced weaponsystems. Recently about 95% of all Chinese defense imports come from Russia, whereas China s takes a 40-45 percent share of all Russian weapon exports. For example since the launch of the weapon embargo China purchased 402 Russian Su-27 and Su-30 fighters as well as 12 Russian Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, 4 Russian Sovremenny-class destroyers and Russian SA-10 and SA-15 air defense missile systems. In recent years Russia has been increasingly reluctant to sell its most sophisticated weapon technology to the PRC. This again strengthens China s interest in seeking technological cooperation with Europe. Potential benefits from a suspension of the arms embargo With Russia being the main external weapon supplier for the Peoples Liberation Army China has little interest in large scale purchase of entire weapon systems. China is rather in interested in technological cooperation and joint ventures with European companies. According to a policy paper issued by the PRC the government intends to foster high-level military exchanges strategic consultation exchanges of specialized military delegations and exchanges in military training and education. China is likely to seek technology-transfers, co-development and co-production such as CRS-17 French missile technology, German submarine technology, British engine technology, advanced electronics and information technology, precision-guidance for missiles, sensors, lasers, radars, Galileo satellite navigational system, and stealth technology [CRS report for US Congress] By intensifying the cooperation with Europe China has the benefit of becoming more independent form Russia. Moreover China will have the choice between multiple suppliers thus being able to push down the prices defense-related components and services.
comparison between Chinses and US military spending The arms-embargo from the EU-perspective differing attitudes among the EU-member states In the last three decades economic ties between the EU and the People s Repulic China have gained enormous importance as the mutual trade exceeded 428 billion euros in the year 2011. However on both the European and the Chinese side the EU-arms embargo is widely regarded as one of the biggest impediments on the way towards more integral realations. The main driving forces for the suspension of the embargo within the European member states are Germany and France. U.K. and the Netherlands are hesitant but generally in favor of a suspension since they are fearing strategic implication with the relations to US. By contrast several Scandinavian and other small European countries express their reluctance to lift the embargo referring to the poor human rights record in China. They are particularly criticizing the lack of information freedom and political freedom as well as the low quality and low transparency of jurisdiction. Furthermore there is the concern that after lifting the embargo imported weapons could be used to suppress minorities like Tibetans and Uigurs in Xinjiang province.
Economics aspects concerning the repeal of the embargo The current European economic crises puts the member states under enormous financial pressure. Fostering mutual trade between China and Europe is being viewed as a key to reactivate the European economy. In the current economic crisis especially the defense industry is suffering from the shrinking military budgets of the EU-member states. At this point suspending the embargo could gain access to the Chinese weapon market bearing great potential for European defense system manufacturers. Apart from that viewing the issue from a macro-economic point of view, Chinese arm purchases would bring advantages. China currently holds 25% of its monetary reserve in euros and could use them to purchase European defense related goods thus reducing the European trade balance deficit. High-ranked Chines government officials repeatedly stated that the arms embargo is one of the last major obstacle preventing the two countries from establishing a comprehensive economic and deep strategic partnership. China also announced to increase buying European goods such as Airbus commercial-aircrafts and industrial equipment in return for a repeal of the arms embargo. "I have to be frank with you in saying this - on the issue of lifting the arms embargo on China and recognising China's full market economy status. We have been working hard for 10 years [on this] but the solution has been elusive. I deeply regret this. I hope and I do believe that the EU side will seize the opportunity and take the right initiative at an early stage to resolve these issue," [Wen Jiabao] Geostrategic aspects concerning the repeal of the embargo The US raised the concern that in case China is being provided with advanced military technology from Europe, it could use these enhance capabilities to threaten Taiwan. It is even feared by US that by repealing the embargo the EU could pass US-weapon technology on to China. This advanced weapon technology could be used against US-forces guarding the Taiwan. This issue started to get particular brisance when China adopted its Taiwan Anti-Secession law in On March 14, 2005. If the separatist forces of Taiwan independence use any name or any means to cause the fact of Taiwan s separation from China, or a major incident occurs that would lead to Taiwan s separation from China, or the possibilities of peaceful unification are completely exhausted, the country may
adopt non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial. Another concern by US government is that once China acquired sophisticated European weapon technology it could pass it on to rogue states. One example is Iran which addresse China to acquire missile defense systems against an Israel attack. However the performance of China s domestically missile defense systems were insufficient for Iran s need. In case China had possessed adequate missile defense and passed it on to Iran it would have urged Israel to an immediate attack on Iran s nuclear facilties thus causing unforeseeable consequences. As the European Union is constantly moving towards a suspension of the arms-embargo bears severe implications for American-European relations. The core of the issue that by lifting the embargo and establishing more comprehensive strategic EU-China relations the EU would move away from the bipolar balance of power to multipolar system of power. Moreover it would sabotage US endeavours of damming up China s military capabilities and global power and severly damage the coherence of the Nato. The process of improving Sino-European relations is inevitably accompanied by a deterioration of US-EU relations. This will ultimately put Europe in a state of having equal relations between China and US. A possible compromise by lifting the embargo and establishing a Code of Conduct for weapon sales One possible way to satisfy china s wish for a reqeal of the weapon embargo and keeping control over arms exports to china is given by the code of conduct. The code of conduct is a set of rules which was adopted by the europen Union in 1998 defining which a kind of weapons and which kind of countries are permitted for trade. (1) Consistency of export with international commitments arising from U.N., EU, or the Organization for ecurity and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) arms embargoes; (2) Risk that export would be used for internal repression or where the recipient country has engaged in serious violations of human rights; (3) Risk that export would provoke or prolong armed conflicts;
(4) Risk of recipient using export to undermine regional peace and security; (5) Effect of export on defense and national security interests of friends, allies, and other EU member states; (6) Commitment of purchaser to fight terrorism and uphold international law; (7) Risk of diversion to third parties or to a terrorist organization; (8) Risk that export would undermine the sustainable development of the recipient country. Strengthening the code of conduct could ameliorate US concerns about lifting the weapon embargo. Replacing the embargo by a general set of rules applied to all countries receiving arm exports would stop degrading China and help to look the relation more friendly.