The Impact of the European Debt Crisis on Trust in Journalism Andreas Köhler & Kim Otto University of Würzburg, Germany ECREA Conference 11.11.2016, Prague
Agenda 1) Problems 2) Theoretical background 3) Research questions 4) Methodolgy 5) Findings
Problems: A decline of trust Data: Eurobaromter 2001-2015 EU: TRUST IN PRESS EU: TRUST IN RADIO EU: TRUST IN TV,75,70,65,60,55,73,67,53,69,70,63,62,70,71,71,61,61,58,69,59,70,60,68,58,66,66,59,57,63,55,60,53,63,55,60,53,50,45,50,50,47,49,50,49,49,48,47,48,45,45,47,47,40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3
Problems: Differences between countries,70,60,50,40,47,53,64,43,44,54,58,42,37,59,62,52,45,30,22,31,20,10,00 Tend to trust in press 2015, percent in countries 4
Problems: Different ranges in countries 0,40 0,35 0,32 0,33 0,34 0,32 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,17 0,18 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,08 0,26 0,15 0,15 0,18 0,21 0,27 0,13 0,11 0,10 0,22 0,21 0,19 0,07 0,19 0,15 0,29 0,27 0,28 0,29 0,25 0,18 0,08 0,07 0,20 0,20 0,19 0,19 0,14,13494 0,08 0,09,07846 0,05 0,00 Range PRINT Range RADIO Range TV 5 Tend to trust in press 2001-2015, percent in countries, ranges
tend to trust in press (blue), prorportion GDP annual growth rate, percentage Problems: Trust in media varies with the economy? Greece 0,60 8,000 0,50 0,40 0,30 3,737 0,43 3,162 0,35 6,638 0,49 4,952 0,42 0,44 0,891 5,815 0,47 3,538 0,37 0,35-0,444 0,39 0,28 0,28 6,000 4,000 2,000 0,774 0,000 0,30 0,31-0,320-2,000 0,20 0,10 0,00 0,23-4,395 0,20-3,895-5,449-6,572-8,864 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-4,000-6,000-8,000-10,000 trust in press GDP annual growth rates 6
Theoretical background In recent years, communication research has paid increasing attention to the role of macro-level factors in explaining media phenomena and audience attitudes (e.g., Goldman & Mutz, 2011, Hallin & Mancini, 2004; Iyengar et al., 2010; Moehler & Singh, 2011; Norris & Inglehart, 2009). institutional theories view political trust as resulting from the satisfactory performance of political institutions (Mishler & Rose, 2001): When they fail to perform, citizens distrust them. 7
Theoretical background Several studies supporting institutional explanations of political trust have focused on economic variables. Such studies found that economic performance indicators such as economic growth, low unemployment, and low inflation rates are related to political trust (e.g., Alesina & Wacziarg, 2000). In addition, in more prosperous societies interpersonal trust is also higher (Inglehart, 1999, p. 94). We know that trust in media is linked with the trust in the political system and democracy (Tsfati/Ariely 2013). 8
Theoretical background Economic Situation Trust in democracy GOVERN- MENT PARTIES Others MEDIA PRESS TV RADIO Others External factors Individual evaluation 9
Theoretical background Economic Situation Trust in democracy GOVERN- MENT PARTIES Others MEDIA PRESS TV RADIO Others External factors Individual evaluation 10
Theoretical background 2014 Eurobarometer data indicate that people in a bad financial situation don t tend to trust in the media as much as people in a good financial situation. The economic situation influences the trust in political institutions and in their problem-solving competence. (Zmerli/Newton/Montero 2006) So we ask: Are the citizens disappointments with political decisions which cause an economic crises projected on the mediator the journalists? However, the institutional approach to political trust implies that media trust will vary not only with the economic and political context, but also with the structure and content of media systems (Norris, 2000, 2011). 11
Research questions RQ1: What connection is there between the economic situation, the trust in political institutions and the tendency to trust in media? RQ2: Is there an impact of the European debt crisis on the tendency to trust in media in the affected countries? RQ3: Are there differences between different media channels, like press, TV and radio? RQ4: How will media trust develop? Is a prognosis possible? 12
Methodology Secondary data analysis: Survey data and economic indicators The study analyses the Eurobarometer empirical survey primary data on microdata level. This survey was carried out in November 2015 in the 28 member states of the European Union and several candidate states. Time serial analysis can be executed beginning in 2001. For the Eurobarometer survey around 1.000 people were interviewed in each state (EU 15). Data on economic situation (GDP growth rates), indicating the extend of the European debt crisis, are added from OECD. 13
Results: RQ1 RQ1: What connection is there between the economic situation, the trust in political institutions and the tendency to trust in media? 14
Results: RQ1 EU: Economic Situation,103 Trust in democracy PARTIES GDP GROWTH,292,408 GOVERN- MENT Others,362,373,801**,738**,859** MEDIA PRESS TV RADIO,463,532*,765** Others External factors Individual evaluation 15
Results: RQ1 There s no overall connection in the EU- 15 between the economic situation and the trust in political institutions or the tendency to trust in media But: This doesn t hold everywhere 16
Results: RQ1 Countries Correlation GDP growth with Trust in press Trust in radio Trust in TV Countries Correlation GDP growth with Trust in press Trust in radio Trust in TV Ireland -0,13 0,26 0,20 France 0,48 0,31 0,26 UK 0,10 0,31 0,37 Belgium 0,18 0,40 0,06 Greece 0,81 0,78 0,81 The Netherlands 0,61 0,51 0,11 Spain 0,75 0,76 0,65 Germany -0,44 0,35-0,01 Portugal 0,24 0,26 0,21 Italy 0,38 0,57 0,56 Finland -0,11-0,01-0,05 Luxembourg -0,38-0,37-0,27 Sweden -0,10 0,03 0,11 Denmark 0,10 0,32 0,40 Austria 0,24 0,28 0,29 EU 0,41,373,362 Pearson correlations 17
Results: RQ1 In some countries, strong connections exist between the economic situation and the trust in political institutions or the tendency to trust in media 18
Results: RQ1 SPAIN: Economic Situation,615** Trust in democracy PARTIES GDP GROWTH,705**,752* GOVERN- MENT Others,762*,651*,917**,950**,941** MEDIA PRESS TV RADIO,912**,887**,923** Others External factors Individual evaluation 19
Results: RQ1 GREECE: Economic Situation,776** Trust in democracy PARTIES GDP GROWTH,746**,809** GOVERN- MENT Others,776**,809**,875**,877**,934** MEDIA PRESS TV RADIO,904**,917**,905** Others External factors Individual evaluation 20
Results: RQ2 RQ2: Is there an impact of the European debt crisis on the tendency to trust in media in the affected countries? 21
Results: RQ2 0,25 Differences trust before and since crisis 2009 0,22 0,20 0,20 0,18 0,19 0,15 0,13 0,15 High significant differences (t-test, significances): 0,10,000,000,000,001,000,000 0,05 0,00 Spain: trust in press Spain: trust in radio Spain: trust in TV Greece: trust in press Greece: trust in radio Greece: trust in TV 22
Results: RQ2 The 2009 crisis effected the strong relation between economy and trust in media in Greece and Spain Gross domestic product (GDP), volume, annual growth rates, percentage Excluding crisis years (2001-2008) Including crisis years (2001-2015) Greece: TRUST IN PRESS Greece: TRUST IN RADIO Greece: TRUST IN TV Spain: TRUST IN PRESS Spain: TRUST IN RADIO Spain: TRUST IN TV,647,663,626 -,266 -,189 -,484,809 **,776 **,809 **,752 **,762 **,651 * Pearson correlations 23
Results: RQ2 There exists an impact of the European debt crisis on the tendency to trust in media in the affected countries. 24
Results: RQ3 RQ2: Are there differences between different media channels, like press, TV, and radio? 25
Results: RQ3 No differences in the effect of the 2009 crisis in the affected countries Trust in radio is higher than trust in press and TV 26
Results: RQ3 In several countries there are high differences between trust in press, TV and radio: Country Mean TRUST IN PRESS Mean TRUST IN RADIO Mean TRUST IN TV Country Mean TRUST IN PRESS Mean TRUST IN RADIO Mean TRUST IN TV France,5210253,6143233,4140047 UK,1951040,6174500,5319307 Belgium,5750260,6999107,6565520 Greece,3544467,4531833,3062960 The Netherlands,6273007,7667727,6686773 Spain,5011220,6064993,4519353 Germany,4723880,6585033,5956540 Portugal,5969233,6779727,6816520 Italy,4237193,5324087,4352400 Finland,5859933,8078373,7453533 Luxembourg,6013487,6625960,5998293 Sweden,4237060,8096493,7028020 Denmark,5242900,7671980,6976160 Austria,5792793,7110747,6974267 Ireland,4237133,7154567,6596380 EU,4833340,6725467,5884113 27
Results: RQ4 RQ4: How will media trust develop? Is a prognosis possible? 28
Results: RQ4 Conditions: There is a strong connection between economic development and trust in media Economic development is projected. (e.g. OECD Economic Outlook) This allows a prognosis of trust in media Prodecure: ARIMA-modelling 29
Results: RQ4 Greece: Model TRUST IN PRESS TRUST IN RADIO TRUST IN TV Model Fit statistics Number of Stationary Predictors R-squared 1,647 1,564 1,611 Modell 2016 2017 TRUST Forecast,35138,38188 IN PRESS UCL,46757,49807 TRUST IN RADIO TRUST IN TV LCL,23519,26569 Forecast,45010,48078 UCL,58907,61975 LCL,31113,34180 Forecast,30240,34112 UCL,46161,50033 LCL,14319,18191 30
Results: RQ4 Spain: Model TRUST IN PRESS TRUST IN RADIO TRUST IN TV Number of Predictors 1 1 1 Model Fit statistics Stationary R-squared,426,440,277 Modell 2016 2017 TRUST Forecast,54188,52543 IN PRESS UCL,74694,73049 LCL,33682,32037 TRUST Forecast,64610,63012 IN UCL RADIO,83971,82373 LCL,45249,43651 TRUST Forecast,48097,46926 IN TV UCL,68414,67242 LCL,27781,26609 31
Findings Trust in media is connected with the trust in democratic institutions A connection between trust in media and the economic development exists only in a few countries. These are the states effected by the european debt crisis: In these countries, there exist are strong connections between the economic situation and the trust in political institutions or the tendency to trust in media In these countries we found significant differences between trust in media before and trust in media after the beginning of the european debt crisis 2009 32
Findings Trust in media declined significantly since the beginning of the european debt crisis 2009 If there is a strong connection between economic development and trust in media, forecasting is possible: A growing of the economy will effect an increase of trust in media 33
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Literature Zmerli, Sonja/Newton, Kenneth/Montero, José Ramon (2006): Trust in People, Confidence in Political Institutions, and Satisfaction with Democracy, in: Jan W. van Deth/José Ramon Montero/Anders Westholm (Hrsg.): Citizenship and Involvement among the Populations of European Democracies, London, S. 35-65. 36