EXPANDING THE GLOBAL DIALOGUE

EXPANDING THE GLOBAL DIALOGUE THE NEXT STAGE OF DIGITAL DIPLOMACY AT THE MUNK SCHOOL OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS INTERIM REPORT Penelope Angelopoulos, Seoren A Garous, Nick Dagostino, Duncan Pike, Sam Wollenberg June 13, 2014

COUNTRY BRIEFINGS I. THE AMERICAS COLOMBIA Colombia has the second highest Internet penetration rate in Latin America at 61.6% due in large part to government-led ICT development efforts and an urban density rate of 75%, with literacy rates sitting at 93%. In recent years, blogs and social media have created a popular platform for political discussion. However, in 2009, it was revealed that the government Department of Safety had used illegal wiretaps to monitor the conversations of journalists, judges, politicians from multiple parties, and former Colombian president César Gaviria. This is indicative of the rule of law rating of 2.1 out of 5, with the President able to circumvent the judicial process. Furthermore, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights cites threats of violence and death by multiple rebel factions and police and government officials against journalists and the media. Columbia ranks quite low on John Hopkins Civil Society Index at 28/100, with its Impact rating the lowest out of all the metrics. However the last available data is from 1995 and thus only anecdotal. Internal econometrics reveal a high unemployment rate at 10% and over 30% of the population below the poverty line; however, this seems to be recoiling from the global recession with Colombia s trade deficit shrinking and a GDP annual growth rate of 5%. FDI in the country is less than 0.5% of GDP and mostly from World Bank projects focused on rural infrastructure development. Military expenditure is 18% of government spending, largely because of the prevalent drug trafficking and paramilitary groups. The largest non-state armed group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has allegedly come under heavy pressure following military successes by Colombia's army in 2008. Recommendation: High Internet penetration and a strong diaspora in Canada, 39,141, along with decades of human rights violations and media censorship, make Columbia a good option for engagement. FARC and paramilitary conflicts appear to decreasing and thus the population can begin to focus on democratic and social rights. ECUADOR According to Supertel, Ecuador s state-owned telecommunications operator, the Internet penetration rate in the country stands at 74.4% in 2014, with the government committed to an ongoing campaign of having at home Internet access stand at 50% of households by 2015. Furthermore, 67% of the population is urban dwelling and the median age is 26, meaning technological literacy and accessibility is high. Freedom House has rated their Internet as partly free, given that there is some censorship of social media sites and blogs, largely pertaining to government criticism or what it views as slanderous attacks. There is the possibility that this rating will become increasingly worse, as the Organic Law on Communications was passed in 2013. Although the law declares a right to communications, it creates a media regulator with sweeping abilities to stifle and censor criticism of state and elected officials, even if the claims are factually supported. Further, civil society organizations are concerned about the human rights violations. Statistics show that impact and public perception of the NGO sector to be extremely low and inefficient, with only 28% of the country participating, and 38% donating. This is most likely due to the inability for civil society to criticize political issues or individuals, due to a large amount of funding being state controlled, and thus reflective of the level of impact they are able to achieve. However, transparency and democracy remain the two prevailing values in the sector. 11

Internal econometrics, while static, show signs of a growing economy, primarily due to oil production and mining. However, because of the consolidated profitable industries, inequality is also high, with the GINI score being 54% and 40% of the countries income going to the top 10% of earners. Corruption is also an issue, with Ecuador ranking 102/177 on the Corruption Perceptions Index, with the state having some control over the judiciary. Despite this, the majority of the population has significant trust and confidence in the federal government, with a low unemployment rate of 4.9% being one potential reason. On an individual level, corruption is represented through arbitrary arrest and detention, with threats of violence and even torture from state security officials evident. The Ecuadorian diaspora in Canada is relatively small at roughly 20,000 people. However, the technological infrastructure and accessibility rates means a large audience for engagement and civil society values certainly align with Canadian interests. In addition, Canadian mining companies represent a significant portion of the industry and would benefit from decreases in corruption and increases in democratic values. Recommendation: Ecuador presents a feasible opportunity for engagements, with infrastructure and accessibility being the biggest advantage with relatively little government control, and civil society s values aligning with Canadian ones. MEXICO While Internet penetration rates are 42.5%, the majority of the population still lacks affordable access, an issue that is particularly pronounced in rural areas; however, urban dwelling rates of 78% signify that a significant portion of the population can still be accessed. Such disparity is largely due to infrastructure deficiencies and high prices exacerbated by the concentrated ownership of the telecommunications sector in the hands of a few influential companies. A new telecommunications bill was approved by the Senate on April 30, 2013, and offers the potential to increase ICT competition and affordability once implemented. Even though on paper regulation is emerging, government surveillance is rampant, including the real-time warrantless recording of citizens phone calls. Also, it is one of the most hostile environments in the world for journalists and bloggers, who were subject to retaliatory violence from drug cartels and organized crime. The political landscape is partly free with corruption a little above average for the region;, however, bribery is pervasive and highlights the extreme wealth inequality that large parts of Mexico faces, with over 50% of its population under the poverty line. This inequality also denotes the landscape of the civil society, which the total of paid and volunteer workforce equals approximately 1.3 million workers, and focuses 58% of its efforts towards advancing education. Human rights and democratic values are thus not prominent aspects of the sector. As mentioned above, violence is more likely to come from non-governmental forces, with the drug cartels actively and brutally censoring media coverage that effects their operations. Drug related violence rose sharply in 2008 and 2009 with about 6,000 killed in 2008 and 40,000 troops involved as of 2008. The authorities put the number of drug-related killings for 2009 at around 6,500, the worst year of bloodshed since President Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug cartels in late 2006. This in turn has caused government debt to rise to more than 30% of GDP, an unsustainable amount, a significant portion of which, $6 billion, is World Bank- funded FDI. Recommendation: Mexico presents a feasible option to engage, with the focus on more principle human rights such as wealth inequality and poverty being a potential focus for government reform. Also, with 12

96,000 in the Canadian diaspora, a large amount of remittances flow from Canada per year. However, the current internal conflict between the government and paramilitary and drug forces means focus is elsewhere. Also, the strong political bonds with the Canadian-Mexican Partnership, may make involvement tenuous. PARAGUAY Internet penetration rates are 23.6% with urban dwellers comprising 62% of the population. However a largely disproportionate number of the population live in the south-eastern portion of the country and thus present a greater prospect for engagement. The law provides for freedom of speech and press, and the government generally respects these rights in practice. Individuals criticize the government publicly and privately, generally without reprisal or impediment. Some reports state that the government monitored e- mail or Internet chat rooms, and the public and civil society sector are reporting increasing number of government censorship since political. Most significantly, the corruption in Paraguay is extensive, ranked 150/177 by Transparency Index and scoring 24/100 on the corruption index. And, despite attempts by then President Fernando Lugo between 2008 and 2012, corruption cases languish for years in the courts without resolution, and corruption often goes unpunished as judges favor the powerful and wealthy. Economically, Paraguay has a high poverty rate at 34% and a declining real growth rate in GDP. This has meant large FDI in the form of transportation infrastructure mainly as well as attempts to reform legal systems. An important Canadian connection is the community of approximately 15,200 Paraguayan Mennonites of Canadian origin, 9,000 of whom maintain Canadian citizenship. In fact, the majority of Canadian visitors to Paraguay have some connection to the Mennonite community. Also, the Centro Paraguayo de Estudios Canadienses (CPEC), a Canadian association created in 2005, is developing an extensive program for Education to Strengthen Democracy. Recommendation: With the ability to leverage already strong and existing Canadian connections within the country, Paraguay provides a feasible country to engage with. Corruption in the country is pervasive and is in desperate need of reform with very little internet censorship or monitoring to impede efforts. PERU Peru has an Internet penetration rate of 36.1% and an urban dwelling rate at 77%, with significant government and NGO initiatives aiming to improve the former through Internet connectivity and to provide citizens with digital education opportunities. As such, Peru is a model for ICT development in South America. The work of citizen journalists has begun to fill this void over the last five years as blogs and social media have created a new platform for government criticism and political debate. The 2011 election cycle witnessed record levels of participation on social media platforms by voters debating the virtues of each candidate., and wwhile freedom of the press has increased substantially since the 1990 s, threats of violence on members of the media still exist. Civil society data is sparse but seemingly heavily dominated by education-based initiatives, largely aimed at Peru s 37% impoverished citizens. Corruption in the political and legal system is quite prevalent, scoring 38/100 on the Corruption Perception Index, with judicial and legal processes reflecting the social and economic equality. Perpetrators of sexual violence, prevalent particularly in rural portions of the country, are often protected by the same corrupt legal system. Internally, Peru s economic indicators show stable and increasing rates of growth at 5.4% estimated in 2014, and low unemployment rates of 5.4%. This is one reason why Canada has invested a significant 13

According to the 2011 census, at approximately 190,000 people, the Lebanese minority is the largest ethnic Arab group in Canada; the 2006 evacuation of Lebanese-Canadians from Lebanon speaks to the importance of this diaspora community. Following the Lebanon War (2006), Canada contributed over $50 million to Lebanon in a five-year assistance program, focusing on supporting the Lebanese government to adopt social and political reforms, notably in democratic governance. Further, Canadians Daniel Bellemare and Norman Farrell have acted as prosecutors of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Recommendation: Due to high rates of connectivity amongst a young and literate population, but significant room for improvement in political freedoms and openness, and citizen participation, as well as limited government surveillance, Lebanon constitutes a feasible candidate for outreach. Further, given the interesting implications of the Syrian conflict on a society which seeks to balance the interests of several major religious groups, and strong cultural ties with Canada, it is also a desirable candidate. SAUDI ARABIA Although Saudi Arabia has not experienced political unrest resulting from Arab Spring protests across the Middle East, according to the EIU, the worsening health of King Abdullah will likely lead to a potentially fractious succession process and wider demands for political reform. Since 2011, the government has been concerned over popular discontent and protest, notably given widespread perceptions of corruption, vast inequalities of wealth, and high youth unemployment; however, it has sought to allay these concerns through the provision of social reforms, rather than relinquish control over the state apparatus. Saudi Arabia is fairly advanced in its ICT infrastructure; Internet penetration rates are approximately 49%, notably reaching 86.8% of the youth population. However, Internet access is decidedly not free : Freedom House notes that although Saudis utilized social media and other online tools to highlight corruption, discuss politically-sensitive issues, and demand the release of political prisoners. However, this online activism positively correlates with strict online blocking and filtering of material which is deemed to disseminate extremist ideology, criticize the government or ruling family, or coordinate public political opposition. Indeed, Freedom House has judged the Saudi media environment as one of the most repressive in the world, with the Ministry of Culture and Information authorized to shut down any media outlet which has been judged to violate the Press and Publications Act (2000). Recommendation: Saudi Arabia is a potential candidate for digital engagement. As the regime repressses public demonstrations and political protests, an increasing amount of Saudis are turning towards online engagement for protest. However, they are met by increasing government attempts to surveil and block certain material. Under GMAP, Canada has designated Saudi Arabia as an emerging market with broad Canadian interests ; however, it should be noted that Canada has been criticized for selling lightarmoured vehicles (LAVs) to Saudi Arabia, which may complicate a digital diplomacy campaign that targets Saudi Arabia for its repression of political liberties and public protest. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE) The United Arab Emirates, is a highly-developed but highly repressive authoritarian regime, with not free ratings from Freedom House on freedom of the press, expression, and Internet, as well as for political rights and civil liberties. While the constitution provides for freedom of speech, the government uses its judicial, legislative, and executive powers to limit those rights in practice. Indeed, the Printed Matter and Publications Act (1980), which regulates all aspects of the media, is considered one of the 25