India: Its Foreign Policy Understanding India 26 October 2013 26 Oct U Ind 2013 1
Concepts in International Relations National Interest Diplomacy Idealism vs. Realism Power Balance of Power Superpowers and Multipolar Worlds International Regimes 26 Oct U Ind 2013 2
Realist Hans Morgenthau is considered the father of realism Wrote Politics Among Nations in 1948 Stressed the virtues of the classical, multipolar, balance of power system and saw the bipolar rivalry between the US and the USSR as especially dangerous 26 Oct U Ind 2013 3
Advice from a Realist Morgenthau: FORGET the sentimental notion that foreign policy is a struggle between virtue and vice, with virtue bound to win... FORGET the crusading notion that any nation, however virtuous and powerful, can have the mission to make the world over in its own image... REMEMBER that diplomacy without power is feeble, and power without diplomacy is destructive and blind. REMEMBER that no nation's power is without limits, and hence that its policies must respect the power and interests of others." 26 Oct U Ind 2013 4
Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missile 26 Oct U Ind 2013 5
A US Aircraft Carrier 26 Oct U Ind 2013 6
US: Weak Neighbors, Big Oceans 26 Oct U Ind 2013 7
Power? 26 Oct U Ind 2013 8
China Stealth Fighter 26 Oct U Ind 2013 9
Power? Shanghai, China 26 Oct U Ind 2013 10
Power? India 26 Oct U Ind 2013 11
Power? India 26 Oct U Ind 2013 12
Power? Mumbai, India 26 Oct U Ind 2013 13
Power? Thailand Algeria South Korea 26 Oct U Ind 2013 14
The Cold War Balance of Power 1945-1990 Israel Syria/Egypt Ethiopia Somalia Taiwan China S. Korea N. Korea S. Viet Nam N. Viet Nam W. Berlin E. Berlin W. Germany E. Germany Britain/France/Japan US Poland/Czech USSR 26 Oct U Ind 2013 15
Unipolar World? EU Japan Russia China India Brazil South Africa USA 26 Oct U Ind 2013 16
Idealism Power is not the only thing that matters States have common interests and common values Trade is the key common interest Global Marketplace Interdependence International system is based on laws (Treaties) and institutions (UN, WTO) 26 Oct U Ind 2013 17
Idealist Hopes to minimize conflict and maximize cooperation among nations Focuses attention on legal-formal aspects of international relations, such as international law and international organizations Also focuses on moral concerns such as human rights 26 Oct U Ind 2013 18
UN General Assembly, New York 26 Oct U Ind 2013 19
International Court of Justice, The Hague, Netherlands 26 Oct U Ind 2013 20
WTO, Geneva 26 Oct U Ind 2013 21
Realist While realists are just as interested as idealists in conflict management, realists are less optimistic about the effectiveness of international law and organization and about the extent of international cooperation that is possible Realists view international relations almost exclusively as a struggle for power among competing nation-states States, like human beings, have an innate desire to dominate others 26 Oct U Ind 2013 22
GW Bush, 2005 And we have declared our own intention: America will stand with the allies of freedom to support democratic movements in the Middle East and beyond, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 23
BF FrGG 26 Oct U Ind 2013 24
Elements of Power Population Size Natural Resources Economic Growth Defense expenditure Leadership Ideology/Religion/Other Inspiration 26 Oct U Ind 2013 25
A Paradox About Power: Nye The sheer might of the United States is unquestioned: U.S. troops are stationed in some 130 countries around the globe, and no opposing army would dare to challenge it on a level playing field. But as America's military superiority has increased, its ability to persuade is at low ebb in many parts of the world, even among its oldest allies. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 26
Concepts in International Relations National Interest Diplomacy Idealism vs. Realism Power Balance of Power Superpowers and Multipolar Worlds International Regimes 26 Oct U Ind 2013 27
National Interest The national interest, or raison d'état, is a country's goals and ambitions whether political, economic, military, or cultural. Thus the national interest of a state is multi faceted. Many states regard the preservation of the nation's culture as of great importance. Primary is the state's survival with economic prosperity and the state s security. Foreign Policy is the pursuit of national interest abroad using diplomacy as the major tool. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 28
Original Indian Concept Chanakya The elements (Prakritis) which constitute a state are seven in number. They are the king (Swamin), the group of ministers and officials (amatya), the natural resources, territory and skilled populace of the state (janapada), fortified towns and cities (durg), the treasury (kosa), the military forces (danda) and the allies (mitra). 26 Oct U Ind 2013 29
Infrastructure THE SEVEN ELEMENTS THAT CONSTITUTE A STATE Political leadership COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL POWER International Alliances 26 Oct U Ind 2013 30
Indian Foreign Policy 26 Oct U Ind 2013 31
India s Hoary Past Our epics present Hanuman, Angada, Krishna, Sanjaya in the role of envoys From the 9 th century onwards, flourishing trade has taken place between India, the southeast Asian region and China in the east and the Arabic speaking lands in the west. Colonization by the British and others changed everything. Government of India had a Foreign and Political Department from 1834 onwards, but its primary functions were to deal with the Indian princes, (as representative of the paramount power), and to handle British-Indian commercial and mercantile interests in the Gulf and the immediate neighbourhood of India. India was not an independent actor on the world stage, imperial Britain determined Indian interests. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 32
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The Chola Empire s Influence 26 Oct U Ind 2013 34
The Modern Foundation In January 1947, Nehru conveyed, in a letter to KPS Menon Our general policy is to avoid entanglement in power politics and not to join any group of powers as against any other group. The two leading groups today are the Russian bloc and the Anglo-American bloc. We must be friends to both and yet not join either. Both America and Russia are extraordinarily suspicious of each other as well as of other countries. This makes our path difficult and we may well be suspected by each of leaning towards the other. This cannot be helped. This was the idea that evolved into the concept of Non Alignment 26 Oct U Ind 2013 35
The Objective Compulsions When India became independent in 1947 the average Indian could expect to live for 31 years, and only 12% of Indians could read. What had once been one of the richest, most advanced and industrialized nations in the world had been reduced by two centuries of colonialism into one of the poorest and most backward countries, de-industrialized and stagnant. From accounting [along with China] for two-thirds of world industrial production in 1750, by 1947 India s share of world industrial product was negligible. India s immediate foreign policy objectives in 1947 were therefore a peaceful environment, autonomy in decision making, free of entanglement in Cold War conflicts or alliances, while we concentrated on our domestic tasks of integration and nation building. Non-alignment, as this policy came to be called was the ability to judge issues on their merits and their effect on India s interests or, as Nehru used to say, enlightened self-interest. Thus the basic objective of independent India s foreign policy was to enable the use of beneficial international inputs for the domestic transformation of Indian society into one which could offer its people their basic needs and an opportunity to achieve their potential. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 36
Formation 1950-1971 Our aim was to enlarge the area of peace, working with those states willing to coexist peacefully despite ideological and other differences, enabling us to concentrate on our own development. Throughout this early period, our means were limited, our goals were primarily domestic, and our ambitions were local The foreign policy challenges that we faced, such as having a border with China for the first time in our history after China moved into Tibet, could not be addressed with any tools other than diplomacy because we simply had no significant military means By the early seventies, the steady development of India, (which even at 3.5% p.a. was faster than that achieved by Britain for most of her industrial revolution), had created capacities and relative strengths that were dramatically revealed in the 1971 war. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 37
Action to Reaction 1971-1991 The liberation of Bangladesh was a sensational achievement for India. For the first time in centuries, India had on her own and without relying on external imperial power crafted a political outcome in the neighbourhood, despite the opposition of a superpower and a large and militarized neighbour. This was probably due to Mrs Indira Gandhi s political skills and willingness to take risks. In 1974 India tested a nuclear explosive device, in what was described as a peaceful nuclear explosion (PNE). The world led by the Nuclear Weapon States reacted by forming a nuclear cartel, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and by cutting off nuclear cooperation with India unless she agreed to forego a nuclear weapons programme and put all her nuclear facilities under international safeguards to guarantee that commitment. As the nuclear weapon states were not willing to do the same themselves, we refused to do so, suffering the consequences of technology denial regimes silently for the sake of our growth and development. However, we kept our options open. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 38
Projection 1991-2009 The true realization of our foreign policy potential opened with the end of the bipolar world in 1989 and introduction of economic reform policies, opening up the Indian economy to the world. In many ways, the period after 1991 has been the most favourable phase in our quest to develop India. The post-cold War external environment of a globalizing world, without rival political alliances, gave India the opportunity to improve relations with all the major powers. No clearer proof is needed of usefulness of non-alignment approach which enabled us to interact with all countries on a practical footing. The nineties saw active Indian engagement with the neighbours, whether through attempts by successive governments to improve relations with Pakistan, or the border related CBMs with China, or free trade agreements with neighbours starting with Sri Lanka in 1998, or the Ganga Waters Treaty with Bangladesh. India s original foreign policy objective of poverty eradication through rapid and inclusive economic development remained. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 39
Reflection 1991-2009 The international situation since 1991 gave India space to work for our rapid economic and social transformation. As a result of nearly two decades of 6% growth and our reforms since 1991, India is today in a position to engage with the world in an unprecedented manner. In fact, since the reforms initiated in 1980s, India has not reported a single year of negative GDP growth Our engagement with the global economy is reflected in our trade in goods and services now exceeding US$ 330 billion. Our world view has changed with a greater level of confidence that others have in us and we too in ourselves. The emergence of the can do attitude The contrast between the world s reaction to the 1974 and 1998 nuclear tests was a reconfirmation of our self confidence. In 2008 we were able not only to break out of our nuclear isolation but to get the rules in our favour by working with others and then enable the NSG decision permitting international civil nuclear cooperation with India. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 40
Today s World The world economic crisis and the interdependence brought about by globalization have proved that no power is insulated from global developments. This automatically imposes limits on levels of tensions among the major powers compelling accommodation. It is now safe to assume that no one power can hope to solve issues by itself, no matter how powerful it is. Developments in Afghanistan, Iraq etc. leave no doubt. What is in fact happening (in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere) is that major powers come together to form coalitions to deal with issues where they have a convergence of interests, despite differences on other issues or in broader approach. A global order marked by the preponderance of several major powers seems to be emerging, with low probability of direct conflict amongst them. However, cooperation and competition among them is intense, which is necessary for stability. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 41
Today s World Paradoxically, some of the same forces of globalization the evolution of technology, the mobility of capital and so on, are also the source of our greatest dangers. Our major threats today are from non-state actors, from trans-boundary effects of the collapse of the state system. Looking ahead, the real risk that threaten systemic stability come from larger, global issues like terrorism, energy security and environmental and climate change. With globalization and the spread of technology, threats have also globalised and flow across borders. It is also obvious that no single country can deal with these issues alone. They require global solutions. These are issues that will impact directly on India s ability to grow and expand our strategic autonomy. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 42
The Future If our foreign policy experience teaches us one thing it is that change is inevitable and rapid. The speed of the rise of China and India in the last quarter of the twentieth century is proof of the rapidity of change. Our future will be determined by how effectively we adapt to change, and how we deal with cross-cutting global issues, like energy security, water, low carbon growth, technology transfer etc. An open rule-based trading system is in our interest now that we have sizeable equities in international trade. India s foreign policy today no longer deals only with existential threats to our security or with subsistence issues. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 43
The Future After several centuries, once again the state is not the sole or necessarily the predominant actor in the international system. In some cases, like technology, for instance, it is businesses and individuals who now determine the future, and it is these units that a successful foreign policy must now increasingly deal with. India s situation and needs are unique. Hence the need to develop our own way developing long term strategies and doctrines. 26 Oct U Ind 2013 44
Thank you! 26 Oct U Ind 2013 45