One Step Back, Two Steps Forward: Using Structured Analysis to Better Understand and Address Human Trafficking Karen Saunders, Fellow Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence
Where We Were: Sample Human Trafficking Cases Prior to 2000 U.S. v. Kozminski (1988) U.S. v. Cadena (1998) U.S. v. Mishulevich (1999) 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 2
US Legislative Response to Burgeoning Human Trafficking Problem: The TVPA of 2000 Names, defines, and criminalizes human trafficking Modernizes awkward and outdated legislation to fit current human trafficking context Provides sentencing guidelines ranging from 20yrs to life Mandates involvement of all cabinet-level US Government agencies in anti-trafficking activities (SPOG) Victim-centered Designed as living legislation Enshrines the integration of scholarship and analysis of human trafficking into policy and practice 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 3
Summary of Current US Capacity to Understand and Address Human Trafficking The United States has one of the best responses to human trafficking in the world Legislation is most comprehensive and requires and empowers agencies to respond to human trafficking Legislation, law enforcement policy and practice, and assistance to human trafficking survivors is constantly evaluated and improved, and adequately funded by the US Government Legislators, policymakers, law enforcement, human rights advocates, victims assistance providers, and other NGOs have responded with overwhelming force and passion against human trafficking Analysis of human trafficking is required by Congress and funded by the Executive branch The United States has made human trafficking a mustaddress issue for other countries 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 4
So What s the Problem? Evolution of capacity to combat and address human trafficking has been predominantly reactive. Legislation and policy directives on human trafficking have developed in response to detected cases and/or failures of justice, law enforcement, and human rights Analysis has consisted of case data reviews and interviews with survivors, law enforcement, prosecutors, witnesses, convicted traffickers, and victims assistance providers Law enforcement indicators are designed primarily for on-theground assessments of discovered crimes and/or for investigating suspected instances of human trafficking Human trafficking must be understood and addressed as a complex, systemic crime and analysis must be proactive. We may be missing a large swath of human trafficking by failing to challenge our assumptions and expand our thinking and response beyond self-confirming analysis and reactions. 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 5
This looks fine, but 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 6
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Who s to Blame? Legislators, law enforcement personnel, policymakers, assistance providers, community members, and even ordinary citizens have all galvanized and responded to human trafficking as it has continued to grow, develop, and morph. BUT we are all looking at analysis in the wrong way. Analysis has largely been reactive, illuminating the types of human trafficking we have already interdicted. Policy, procedures, and responses have been developed in response. To get ahead of the problem, we need analysis that is imaginative and proactive. 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 8
How Structure Analytic Techniques will Help Us Better Address Human Trafficking Anti-trafficking stakeholders could take two steps forward in addressing this crime by taking one step backward Structured analytic techniques can help us view human trafficking in its entirety Building proactive responses to complex crimes requires a sophisticated conceptualization of the problem as it currently manifests itself as well as its possible future development A number of different structured analytic techniques are applicable and will help piece together the puzzle 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 9
Which Structured Analytic Techniques to Apply and with Which Stakeholders (1 of 2) Diagnostic Techniques for Anti-Trafficking Professionals Key Assumptions Check: Identify the assumptions that underlie our existing understanding of what human trafficking is, how it works, which types are predominant, where it flourishes, and who is victimized. Identify biases in prior research and analytic efforts Force Field Analysis: What factors must absolutely be present for trafficking to exist? What resources must the trafficker have? What environmental conditions allow trafficking to exist and flourish? What factors facilitate it or quell its growth? 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 10
Which Structured Analytic Techniques to Apply and with Which Stakeholders (2 of 2) Imagination Techniques for Anti-Trafficking Professionals and the Broader Public Structured Brainstorming: Where might the illegitimate business of human trafficking intersect with legitimate business? How might people be vulnerable to trafficking schemes and how might traffickers exploit these vulnerabilities? Scenarios Analysis: How, where, when, and using what methods might human traffickers exploit their victims? Other than the trafficker, who else may be complicit in this crime? How might trafficking manifest itself in the future? What are we missing in the present that render populations vulnerable to trafficking schemes? 4/22/2014 LEADING THE WAY IN ANALYSIS 11