5.2 Metro 2040 Performance Monitoring Update SECTION G AMENDMENT Lauren Klose REGIONAL PLANNER Regional Planning Committee March 10, 2016
Background 2
55 15 Performance Measures Key Summary Measures Complete set of improved measures will be provided in the proposed Performance Monitoring Guideline Amending Metro 2040 Section G 3
PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 1) Create a Compact Urban Area 1. Regional Land Use Changes 2. Urban Containment 3. Residential Growth in Priority Areas 4
PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 2) Support a Sustainable Economy 1. Employment Growth in Priority Areas 2. Employment Accessibility 3. Industrial and Mixed Employment Area Use 4. Agricultural Area Use 5
PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 3) Protect the Environment and Respond to Climate Change 1. Ecosystem Health 2. Climate Change Mitigation 3. Climate Change Preparedness 6
PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 4) Create Complete Communities 1. Housing Affordability 2. Housing Diversity 3. Complete Communities and Health Status 7
PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 5) Support Sustainable Transportation 1. Travel Mode Choice 2. Road/Vehicle Use and Safety 8
Improved Annual Reporting 9
Adopting a Performance Monitoring Framework 10
Performance Monitoring Online Dashboard 11
Process Metro 2040 Amendment Framework Adoption Initiation Draft 1 st and 2 nd Readings Draft Notification Draft 3 rd and Final Readings Final Adoption 12
Questions?
5.4 2016 Census First Impressions METRO VANCOUVER S REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGY Terry Hoff SENIOR REGIONAL PLANNER, METRO VANCOUVER Regional Planning Committee March 2017
Statistics Canada Census Benchmark data for planning and monitoring Metro Vancouver role in acquisition and distribution Thematic Reports 2
Population in Canada s Metropolitan Areas 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 +345,000 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Total 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 +275,000 +150,000 (9%) 70% of Canada s Growth 1,000,000 +87,000 +178,000 +162,000 - Toronto Montréal Vancouver Ottawa - Gatineau Calgary Edmonton 3
Metro Vancouver s Historic Growth 5 year intervals 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 4
Metro Components of Population Growth 40,000 Growth 2011-2016 Immigration (79%) Natural Increase (28%) Inter Provincial (6%) Intra Provincial (-14%) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Net Immigration Births Natural Increase Net Inter Provincial 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-10,000 Deaths Net Intra Provincial -20,000 5
Immigration to Metro Vancouver by Origin 12,000 10,000 8,000 China China, People's Republic of India Iran Korea, Republic of Philippines United Kingdom and Colonies United States of America 6,000 Philippines 4,000 India 2,000 Korea Iran 0 US 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 6
Subregional Growth Distributions 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% South of Fraser Central Areas Tri-Cities Metro 2040 Projected Share 2006-2021 North Shore Census Share 2006-2016 Ridge Meadows 7
Municipal Population Growth 1971-2016 700,000 600,000 500,000 Vancouver 400,000 300,000 Surrey 200,000 Burnaby 100,000 Richmond Coquitlam Langley - 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 8
Projected and Actual Growth Regional Shares 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Burnaby Coquitlam Delta Langley City Langley Dist Lion's Bay Maple Ridge New North Van City North Van Dist Pitt Meadows Port Coquitlam Port Moody Richmond Surrey Vancouver West Vancouver White Rock U.E.L. "Metro 2040 Projected Share 2006-2021" Census Share 2006-2016 9
Net Dwelling Unit Growth 2011-2016 Distribution 70,000 Units 10
Metro 2040 Growth Objectives and Targets 99% within the Urban Containment Boundary to 2041 40% within Urban Centres to 2021 23% within Transit Corridors (existing and future) to 2021 37% within the General Urban Areas to 2021 1% in Rural, Agricultural to 2021 11
Urban Centres Roughly estimate 39% of dwelling unit growth was within Metro 2040 Urban Centre boundaries Urban Centre Unit Growth 11-16 Share of Metro Unit Growth Metro 2040 Target for 2021 Urban Centres Total About 27,000 39% 40% Metro Core About 11,000 16% 8% Surrey City Centre About 2,100 3% 7% Regional Centres About 9,000 13% 14% Municipal Centres About 4,600 7% 12% 12
Major Transit Corridors Frequent Transit Network 2016 including Urban Centre locations About 50% of Metro dwelling unit growth proximate to FTN includes Urban Centre locations 26% outside UCs 13
General Urban Areas 34% of dwelling growth Includes future transit corridors 15-20% in the remaining urban lands within the UCB 6,000 hectares 14
Municipal Population 2001-2016 - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Vancouver Surrey Burnaby Richmond Coquitlam Langley Township Delta North Vancouver District Maple Ridge New Westminster Port Coquitlam North Vancouver City West Vancouver Port Moody Langley City White Rock Pitt Meadows Greater Vancouver A Bowen Island Anmore Lions Bay Tsawwassen First Nation Belcarra 2001 Base Growth 2006 Growth 2011 Growth 2016 16
5.5 Anticipating the Next 100 Years METRO VANCOUVER S REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGIES Terry Hoff SENIOR REGIONAL PLANNER, METRO VANCOUVER Regional Planning Committee March 2017
Growth Forecasting Purpose / Applications Metro 2040 - Planning and Monitoring Utilities Demand Modeling Transportation Demand Modeling Coordinating Regional and Municipal Plans Planning Context for Regional Agencies / Businesses 2
Growth Modeling Method Scenarios and Assumptions Modeling Techniques Data Sources and Quality Validation
Long Term Regional Development Scenarios Base Case Scenario Alternative Scenarios Metro 2040 goals and strategies Contextual factors are resilient and relatively stable Includes some trending of primary and contextual factors Includes a high - low range of variability Reference point for alternative scenarios Land capacity, saturation Transportation, Transit Service Coverage Economy global, national, regional - boom or bust employment Environment climate change, catastrophic events Political global, national, regional, community
Base Case Scenario - Population Demographic Cohort Projection Model - Annual 2011 2121 Modules for each subregion Natural Increase birth, death rates baseline, trends and projections Immigration regional share, age composition trends Inter Provincial Migration regional, municipal in/out allocations Intra Provincial Migration regional, municipal in/out allocations Inter Municipal Migration in/out reallocations
Natural Increase - Births Births Fertility rates / trends and projections by population of women of child bearing age Trends 1989-2014, projected toward stable rate 2021 2121 Deaths Longer life span, aging population 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 65+ 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 Under 25 0% 2011 2031 2051 2071 2091 2111 6
Immigration - Municipal Distribution 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Vancouver Surrey 15% Burnaby 10% 5% Richmond Coquitlam Langley 0%
Domestic Migration Inter-Provincial Average net annual regional inflow +2,500 and declining through to 2121 Intra-Provincial Average net annual regional outflow -4,000 increasing to -14,000 (0.28%) through to 2121
Inter-Municipal Migration Trends 2001 2011 establish baseline reference Assume this pattern generally continues, but at a decreasing rate, through the projection period Out to Other Municipalities Vancouver In From Other Municipalities
Baseline Projections - Growth Components 500,000 International Migration 400,000 300,000 200,000 Metro Growth 100,000 Inter Provincial Migration 2011 21 2021 31 2031 41 2041 51 2051 61 2071 81 2081 91 2091 2101 2101 2111 2111 21 Intra Provincial Migration (100,000) (200,000) 2061 2071 Natural Increase (300,000) 10
Base Case Scenario Land Capacity Established Metro 2040 land use designations assumed static some minor amendments Net Urban land = 43,000 ha, ~4,000 5,000 ha remaining for new urban 100% redevelopment post 2030s Assume that the land base, market and political governance will accommodate projected development and densities
Metro Vancouver Baseline Scenario Population Growth 12
Draft Scenario Population Growth Subregions North Shore (N Vans, W Van, Lions Bay) North East Sector (Coquitlam,Port Coq, Port Moody, Anmore, Belcarra) South of Fraser (Surrey, Langleys, Delta, White Rock) 2011 Base Growth to 2041 2081 2121 Central (Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, New West, UBC/UEL) - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
Baseline Scenario Housing Development 2011 2046 2121 Units 897,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 Apartments Row Housing Multi Unit Semi-detached Single Detached
Share of Total Dwelling Units Apartments Single Detached Multi Unit Semi-detached Row Housing 15
Regional Residential Densities 2011-34 persons per hectare or 13 units per hectare 2041 49 persons per hectare or 20 units per hectare 2081 58 persons per hectare or 24 units per hectare 2121 64 persons per hectare or 27 units per hectare Current City of Vancouver density 16
Alternative Growth Scenarios Baseline Scenario Projection Land Base - UCB / ALR Economic Shifts Climate Change Political Movements Capacity / Density Saturation Working Scenario 17
19
Metro 2040 Growth Concept
Stats Can Population Forecast Scenarios Canada 2014-2063 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 High, medium and low scenarios Migration Regional Economies 62 Million 51 Million 40 Million 0 22
Comparative Regional Growth Forecasts to 2041 3,700,000 3,600,000 3,500,000 3,400,000 3,300,000 3,200,000 3,100,000 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 Stats Can Med High CBC Urban Futures Metro 2040 BC Stats P2014 Stats Can Low 23
Employment Assume regional economic sectors and activity relatively consistent Assume increasing technology / capitalization and aging population decreases regional employment to population ratio.53 to.44 Assume FTE remains generally consistent Assume subregional employment growth allocations by sector in association with existing sector locations and population related employment demand Metro jobs from 1.2 million in 2011 to 2.07 in 2121