Canada at 150 and the road ahead A view from Census 2016

Canada at 150 and the road ahead A view from Census 2016 Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer 2017 Environics Analytics User Conference November 8, 2017

Canada continues to lead G7 in population growth, but growth varies across regions 2

Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate () Growth rate at a 15 year low Immigration accounts for two-thirds of growth Census Population and Growth Rate, Canada Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate () 40 35.2 35 13.4 33.5 31.6 28.8 30.0 30 27.3 9.7 23.0 24.3 25.3 25 21.6 20.0 18.2 7.8 7.9 20 16.1 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.9 15 5.0 4.0 4.0 10 5 0 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses

All four western provinces had above-average growth Population Growth Rate (), Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2006-2011 and 2011-2016 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 12.7 11.6 10.8 11.6 8.3 6.7 6.3 5.2 7.0 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.7 3.3 3.2 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.2-0.5 NU AB SK MB YK BC Canada ON QC PEI NL NWT NS NB 2.9 Source: Various Censuses

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Our Population is aging, but Canada is still young compared to other g7 countries 6

More Seniors than Children Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ 34 34 32 30 30 28 5 6 7 8 8 8 23 10 21 12 19 13 17 15 16.6 16.9 21.1 23.9 24.5 16.3 15.6 15.2 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 7

By 2046, one in Four Canadians will be 65 Years and older Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ 34 34 32 30 30 28 5 6 7 8 8 8 23 10 21 12 19 13 17 15 16.6 16.9 21.1 23.9 24.5 16.3 15.6 15.2 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 8

Why Canada is Starting to Look a Lot Older Percent Population Change 2011-2016, Canada 30 23 30 5 1.2 12 0.1 2.5 5 8 5 0.7 12 12 11 7-7 -3.0-12 Total 0-4 5-9 15-19 25-29 35-39 10-14 20-24 30-34 45-49 40-44 Age Groups 55-59 65-69 75-79 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 85+ Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 9

High growth of seniors population Projected Population Growth, 2016-2026, Canada 2016-2026 Projected Population Growth, 2016-2036, Canada 2016-2036 111 72 10 4 40 29 Total Under 65 65+ 85+ 18 8 Total Under 65 65+ 85+ Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections 10

the suburbs are a-changin 11

higher growth of seniors in suburbs Growth of Population Age 65+, 2011-2016 City Suburbs Population Aged 65+ as Percent of Total Population, 2016 City Suburbs 31.1 9.0 22.8 13.1 19.1 25.4 16.0 16.7 15.6 15.5 13.5 15.8 Montreal GTA Vancouver Montreal GTA Vancouver GTA = Greater Toronto Area Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 12

Smaller but more diverse families and households 13

A diversity of households Types of Households, 2016 Change in Number of Households 2011-2016 Total 5.6 Non-family 2 or more persons 4.1 Other 3.6 Multigenerational household 2.9 One-person 28.2 Loneparent 8.9 Couple without children 25.8 Couple with children 26.5 Couple without children Couple with children Lone-parent Multigenerational Other census family Non-family 2+ persons One-person 1.5 6.9 5.0 5.6 7.2 8.1 11.6 2016 Total Households: 14,072,080 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 14

Trend has been for later family formation but pattern is slowing Percentage of Young Adults Married or Common-law, Canada Ages 20-24 Ages 25-29 Total on top Common-law 36 Married 8 20 16 15 28 13 12 11 7 4 4 1981 2001 2011 2016 69 8 52 21 61 31 46 44 23 23 23 21 1981 2001 2011 2016 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 15

Percentage of young adults living with parents continues to increase Young Adults Living with Parents, Canada, 2016 Ages 20-24 Ages 25-29 57.2 59.3 62.0 41.5 11.3 22.5 25.2 27.0 1981 2001 2011 2016 1981 2001 2011 2016 Sources: Statistics Canada, censuses of population, 1981 to 2016 16

Number of Same-sex couples up 13 percent from 2011 Same-sex couples are 0.9 percent of all couples Count in 000 Number of Same-sex Couples, Canada 65 73 Total on top 45 49 34 44 Common-law 38 34 Married 21 24 7 2001 2006 2011 2016 Average household income All couples $ 87,600 Same-sex couples $ 96,900 Percent of same-sex couples with children Male 4.5 Female 20.1 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 17

Increasing cultural diversity 18

Immigrants at highest level since 1931 Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 16.1 13.9 13.3 13.0 22.0 22.3 22.2 17.5 14.7 15.6 15.3 16.0 15.6 16.1 17.4 18.4 19.8 20.6 21.9 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 25 20 15 4,000,000 10 2,000,000 5 0 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 0 Source: Statistics Canada 7,540,830 Total Immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016

Immigrant numbers will continue to increase Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 16.1 13.9 13.3 13.0 22.0 22.3 22.2 17.5 Number Percentage 14.7 15.6 15.3 16.0 17.4 15.6 16.1 18.4 19.8 20.6 21.9 Actual 23.7 Projected 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 25 20 15 4,000,000 10 2,000,000 5 0 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 0 Source: Statistics Canada Diversity projections 7,540,830 Total Immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016

89 countries with 10,000 or more immigrants Top Countries for Total Immigrants, 100,000 or More, Canada, 2016 Total Immigrants, 2016 Percent in Last 10 Years Total Immigrants, 2016 India China Philippines 668,600 649,300 588,300 39.9 38.8 53.5 Iran Poland Germany 154,400 146,500 145,800 United Kingdom 499,100 10.8 United States 253,700 26.2 Portugal 139,400 Italy Hong Kong Pakistan Vietnam 236,600 208,900 202,300 169,300 2.1 4.7 38.2 13.4 Jamaica Sri Lanka Korea, South France 138,300 132,000 123,300 105,600 Percent in Last 10 Years 44.7 6.2 11.2 4.5 16.0 23.4 36.2 38.1 Total immigrants to Canada 7,540,825 Population growth over the past 10 years 30.1 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Immigrants spreading out across the country Immigrants by Province, Canada Ontario Quebec Alberta British Columbia Manitoba Saskatchewan Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Immigrants 2011-2016 472,200 215,200 207,800 175,600 63,200 47,900 11,800 9,300 3,700 3,400 Percent Change from 2001-2006 -18.7 11.0 100.4-1.3 102.7 492.5 70.9 117.1 154.3 293.0 1,212,080 Total Canada 2011-2016 Percent change: 14.8 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Increased immigration from Syria, Iran and Philippines Number of Immigrants 2011-2016, Top Countries of Birth Percentage Change in Number of Immigrants, 2006-2011 to 2011-2016 Philippines 191,500 Syria 490.9 India 169,300 Iran 56.4 China 139,800 Philippines 46.9 Iran 54,700 Nigeria 34.5 Pakistan 51,700 France 17.7 Syria 30,000 Pakistan 11.8 United States of America 40,000 India 9.7 France 26,500 China -7.5 United Kingdom 29,300 United States of America -13.7 Nigeria 19,000 United Kingdom -30.0 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 23

immigrants increasingly speak English or French at home the longer they are in Canada Percent of Immigrants Who Speak English or French Most Often or Regularly at Home, 2016, Canada 86 76 16 9 76 15 72 73 18 21 69 21 Total on top 59 78 61 54 52 48 Speaks English or French regularly at home Speaks English or French most often at home All Immigrants Before 1981 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2016 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Millions Over 1 in 5 are members of a visible minority group Number and Proportion of Visible Minority Population in Canada, 1981 to 2036 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 4.7 6.3 9.4 Number 11.2 Percentage 16.2 13.4 19.1 Actual 22.3 Projected 25.4 28.4 31.4 34.4 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 0 2016 Visible Minority Population 7,674,580 Sources: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population Release, and Diversity: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036 (reference scenario)

Visible minority population numbers 7.6 million Visible Minority Population, 2016, Canada Percent 2+ Generations, 2016, Canada South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Arab Latin American Southeast Asian West Asian Multiple visible minorities Korean Visible minority, n.i.e. Japanese 1,924,600 1,577,100 1,198,500 780,100 523,200 447,300 313,300 264,300 232,400 188,700 132,100 92,900 South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Arab Latin American Southeast Asian West Asian Multiple visible minorities Korean Visible minority, n.i.e. Japanese 31 27 44 23 27 22 34 18 19 41 54 61 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Visible minority now a majority in Toronto CMA Percent of the Population Visible Minority, CMAs, 2016, Canada Toronto 51 Ottawa - Gatineau 22 Vancouver 49 Windsor 20 Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Edmonton Winnipeg 34 29 28 26 K - C - W Hamilton Regina Oshawa Saskatoon 19 18 18 17 17 Montréal 23 Guelph 17 Canada 22 London 16 K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Immigrants index below average on individual income, but second generation shows improvement Index of Median Individual Income, Population Aged 25-54, 2015, Canada (Total Population Aged 25-54 =100) Not a visible minority Filipino Black Latin American Southeast Asian South Asian Chinese Japanese Arab Korean West Asian 56 56 First Generation Index 101 60 60 81 78 76 75 74 86 Chinese Japanese Not a visible minority Korean South Asian Filipino Arab Southeast Asian Black West Asian Latin American 82 81 85 Second Generation Index 129 118 117 115 109 107 96 90 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Median income for total population $43,300

Canada s Indigenous population 29

Close to 1.7 million aboriginal peoples in Canada Percent and Population, Aboriginal, 2016, Canada First Nations (North American Indian) 977,235 58 Métis 587,545 35 Other 43,975 3 Inuk (Inuit) 65,025 4 Total Aboriginal Population 1,673,780 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Aboriginal population increased by 20 percent Population Growth, Canada Population Growth, 2011-2016 2006-2011 2011-2016 30.0 19.8 19.5 14.8 5.7 4.9 9.4 Aboriginal Population Total Population First Nations (North American Indian) Métis Inuk (Inuit) Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census and 2011 National Household Survey

Visible minority and aboriginal populations account for all of total population growth Population Growth 2011-2016, Canada 22.5 19.5 4.9 Total population Visible minority population Aboriginal population -0.3 Rest of population 34.5 7.7 1.7 25.1 2016 Population (millions) Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Nearly a quarter of Aboriginal population live in low-income Households Percent of Population Living in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada Percent of Population Living in Low-income Households by Age Group, 2015, Canada 30.4 23.6 13.8 23.3 19.8 20.6 21.5 Aboriginal Non Aboriginal 0-17 18-24 25-54 55-64 65 + Age Groups Population excludes persons living on reserve or in the North Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Many dwellings in need of major repair, especially on reserves and in Inuit communities Percent of Population Living in Dwellings in Need of Major Repair, 2016, Canada Aboriginal Non-aboriginal 43.9 26.2 21.5 19.4 6.8 6.0 13.2 13.8 11.1 2011 2016 On reserve Off reserve First Nations Métis Inuit Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Incomes increased over the decade 2005-2015 but little change in low income 35

Resource-Rich provinces tend to have the highest incomes, led by Alberta Median Household Income ($), 2015, Canada Alberta Saskatchewan Ontario Canada British Columbia Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia Quebec New Brunswick 93,800 75,400 74,300 70,300 70,000 68,100 67,300 61,200 60,800 59,800 59,300 $ Percentage Change 2005-2015 (2015$) Saskatchewan Newfoundland and Labrador Alberta Manitoba British Columbia Prince Edward Island New Brunswick Canada Nova Scotia Quebec Ontario 12 11 11 11 10 9 3.8 24 20 29 36 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 36

Higher income increases for females, but gap remains Percentage Change in Median Individual Income, 2005-2015, Canada 19.1 35.9 35.2 33.2 31.6 29.0 Males Females 21.1 25.2 24.7 23.9 22.3 21.3 6.7 9.6 14.2 13.0 13.9 6.1 7.7 16.5 11.7 Males Females $40,782 $28,860 2016 Median Income Canada (2015$) SK NL AB NS PE NB MB QC BC ON -2.4 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 37

Seniors spending power SOARS Population Growth, 2006-2016, Canada Aggregate Income Growth, 2005-2015, (2015$), Canada 56.4 35.2 27.5 12.3 7.7 14.8 Total Ages 15-54 Ages 55+ Total Ages 15-54 Ages 55+ Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections 38

Little change in low-income except for seniors Percent of People in Low-Income Households (LIM-AT), 2016, Canada 2005 2015 14.0 14.2 17.1 17.0 16.5 16.9 12.7 12.3 13.7 13.2 13.3 10.9 13.4 16.5 Total 0-17 18-24 25-54 55-64 65-74 75 and over Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Note: 2015 Low-Income Threshold 1 person $22,133 2 persons $31,301 4 persons $44,266 39

Living arrangement of seniors have significant impact on their financial situation Median Income for Couples/Persons Aged 65 and Over, 2015$, Canada Percent of Population in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada 62,400 34 $ 28,400 8 Couple income* Living alone income Couples Living alone * At least one person is 65 or over ** Couples value is estimated Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 40

Housing #EAUC2017

Seniors living alone pay the most in Shelter Costs Percent Homeowners, Canada 2006 2011 2016 68.4 69.0 67.8 69.3 69.1 66.5 75.5 74.7 77.7 73.4 77.1 76.2 76.1 76.2 76.1 67.9 70.5 72.1 51.3 52.4 48.4 Total 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and over Source: Statistics Canada, 2006,2011 and 2016 Census

much higher growth for high-rise apartments Growth in Number of Dwellings by Type, Canada 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 10.9 12.7 14.0 7.6 7.1 5.6 4.0 6.5 2.9 6.0 7.0 8.0 Total Single-detached Apartment 5 or more storeys Other 751,500 212,300 156,300 382,900 Growth 2011-2016 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 43

Young and old most likely to live in condos Percent of Homeowners Living in Condominiums by Age Group, 2016, Canada 13.4 High-rise Other 8.8 4.4 22.9 14.9 11.4 14.7 11.9 8.2 6.4 11.1 9.9 9.2 8.9 7.5 6.9 6.8 7.1 7.9 4.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.4 4.1 4.9 6.7 12.0 9.1 Total - all ages Age of primary household maintainer 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-84 85 + Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Renters face Higher shelter costs Percent of Households Spending 30 or More of Income on Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Owners 2005 2015 Renters 2005 2015 51.2 50.3 40.3 40.0 34.2 34.4 17.8 16.6 23.2 19.9 14.3 14.2 All ages Ages 25-34 Ages 65 + All ages Ages 25-34 Ages 65 + Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 45

Lower income of seniors living alone means higher shelter costs Seniors Paying More than 30 of Income for Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Total Owners Renters 60.5 19.4 11.8 39.7 12.4 8.9 24.9 45.4 31.8 Total Couple Living alone Total Couple Living alone Total Couple Living alone Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

Questions?

Thank You Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer doug.norris@environicsanalytics.com 613-592-3402 #EAUC2017