University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Tourism Travel and Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally 2014 Marketing Outlook Forum - Outlook for 2015 What Travel Trends Might Tell Us About the Future Jason Dunkel Envrionics Analytics Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarworks.umass.edu/ttra Dunkel, Jason, "What Travel Trends Might Tell Us About the Future" (2016). Tourism Travel and Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally. 4. http://scholarworks.umass.edu/ttra/2014marketing/proceedings/4 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Tourism Travel and Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact scholarworks@library.umass.edu.
Tourism Segments and Trends Jason Dunkel jason.dunkel@environicsanalytics.ca 647-259-2811 @jdunkel_ea
Who is Environics Analytics? Canada s leading marketing analytics company We help tourism organizations gain a better understanding of who their Canadian visitors are so that they can make more effective use of their Canadian marketing budget 2
Agenda Age Trends - Canada and US The Youth Movement How They Travel 3
Age Trends
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 Census release Both Canada and the US are Growing Population Growth in G-8 Countries, 2006-2011 (%) Canada 5.9 United States 4.4 United Kingdom Italy France 2.8 3.2 3.5 Russia Japan 0.1 0.0 Germany - 0.8
Source: www.populationpyramid.net Canadian Population 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 6
Source: www.populationpyramid.net US Population 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 7
Source: www.populationpyramid.net Comparing the Two 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 8
Source: www.populationpyramid.net Comparing the Two The US used to have the older population now it s Canada with the older population Overall the population is flattening out 9
The Youth Movement
Source: Statistics Canada, Analytical Report on Release of Age and Sex Data, 2011 Census Youth Movement in Canada and the US Percent of Population Aged 65 and Over, G8 Countries, 2011 Japan 23.4 Germany Italy 20.6 20.3 France United Kingdom Canada United States Russia 16.8 16.5 14.8 13.0 12.9
Source: www.populationpyramid.net Canada and the US in 2015 12
Source: www.populationpyramid.net Whereas Germany 13
Source: www.populationpyramid.net The Youth Movement Why the discrepancy? 14
Source: U.S. Census and Environics Analytics Demographic Estimates Let Diversity Explain Canada 2011 (Visible Minority) 1% Latin American 3% Black United States 2010 (Visible Minority) 16% Hispanic 13% Black or African American 78% White only 13% Asian 64% White only 4% Aboriginal 1% Other 1% American Indian/ Alaskan Native 2% Other 5% Asian
Growth Through Diversity 2010 US Popula-on by Race/Hispanic Origin 2.8% Multiple Race/Origin 2030 US Popula-on by Race/Hispanic Origin 4.1% Multiple Race/Origin 64% White 15% Hispanic 57% White 20% Hispanic 4.3% Asian 0.9% Other 5.3% Asian 12% Black 12% Black 1.0% Other Note: Other includes (i) American Indian and Alaskan Native and (ii) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections, 2009
Source: Nielsen PopFacts 2014 28% of the US Hispanic population is under the age of 15 Only 17% of the US Non-Hispanic population is under the age of 15
How They Travel
High Canadian Domestic Travel (Index) Amount ($) spent on last vacation Boomers 51% 65+ 51% Gen X 51% Millennials 49% Low Low Travel 1+ times in the past year High Source: Environics Analytics, PRIZM link to PMB
Source: Environics Analytics, PRIZM link to Simmons, Pop Facts, Consumer Buying Power High US Domestic Travel (Index) Total Travel Expenses 65+ 54% Millennials 61% Boomers 67% Gen X 69% Low Low Travel 1+ times in the past year High
High Canadian International Travel (Index) Amount ($) spent on last vacation 65+ 36.8% Millennials 38.1% Boomers 39.5% Gen X 51.2% Low Low Travel 1+ times in the past year High Source: Environics Analytics, PRIZM link to PMB
High US International Travel (Index) Total Travel Expenses 65+ 9% Boomers 15% Gen X 17% Millennials 16% Low Low Travel 1+ times in the past year High Source: Environics Analytics, PRIZM link to Simmons, Pop Facts,
Source: Statistics Canada and U.S. Census Bureau Let Incomes Explain Percentage Change in Median Household Income 2000-2011 (constant $) United States Canada % -9.0 8.8 8.8-12.0-12.0 10.1-15.0 3.8-5.0 13.3 10.0 16.3 All age groups 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Age Groups
Source: US Department of State, Passport Canada Let Passports Explain 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Canada US 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24
In Summary Both the US and Canada are relatively young countries The US will become younger than Canada The diversity in both countries will become even more of a factor in marketing decisions Americans tend to be less likely to travel internationally than Canadians but the Millennials are beginning to travel very differently 25
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