DEMOCRACY IN PAKISTAN: HOPES AND CONCERNS AHEAD OF LANDMARK ELECTIONS Spring 2013 With media partner
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Democracy in Pakistan: Hopes and concerns ahead of landmark elections Spring 2013 1 HOPES AND CONCERNS AHEAD OF LANDMARK ELECTIONS Given the fragile state of democracy in Pakistan, the first transfer of power between a democratically-elected civilian government to another civilian government in 66 years of the country s independence could be viewed as cause for celebration. It should, also however, spur reflection on why democracy in Pakistan is yet to take strong roots. Also, although there is consensus on setting up a stronger, more independent election commission to supervise the upcoming polls (there is no firm date yet for the elections), they will be held against a backdrop of deep public concern about rampant corruption and fresh outbreaks of violence, some in areas likely to stop potential candidates from campaigning. Many sectors of Pakistan's diverse society feel disenfranchised by dynasty-style politics, where parties are routinely run by families. This disenchantment is especially noticeable among people under 35 who make up almost half of the electorate. Also, too few women are registering to cast their ballots. For analysts and experts taking part in the Friends of Europe conference "Democracy in Pakistan: Hopes and Concerns Ahead of Landmark Elections", the real uplifting story about Pakistan is the strength, resilience and fortitude of the people of the country. There are challenges, but there is the will, and it s also an achievement to have a consecutive election, with a civilian government finishing its term and handing over to another civilian government Michael Gahler MEP, Member of the European Parliament and Chief Observer of the European Union 2008 Election Observation Mission to Pakistan "There are challenges; yes. But I think there is the will, and of course it's also an achievement to have a consecutive election, with a civilian government finishing its term and handing over to another civilian government", said Michael Gahler MEP, a Member of the European Parliament and Chief Observer of the EU's 2008 Election Observation Mission to Pakistan. Sajjad Karim MEP, also a Member of the European Parliament and Chair of the European Parliament Friends of Pakistan Group said: "Increasingly Pakistani people find themselves on their own, and they have to provide for themselves. Yet there is something that doesn't allow people to fail the state, even though the state may have failed them.
2 Friends of Europe Asia Programme While for Shada Islam, Head of Policy at Friends of Europe: "It is certainly good news that the current democratically-elected civilian government looks set to complete a five year term. But 66 years after independence, should that be a cause for celebration or a reason for serious reflection?" There was a call from the people of Pakistan for the opposition parties to come forward and give real impetus to a movement for change, and that failed to happen Sajjad Karim MEP, Member of the European Parliament and Chair of the European Parliament Friends of Pakistan Group State of democracy For now, the jury is out and only the conduct of these polls will prove just how deeply entrenched democracy has become. So what is the state of politics in Pakistan and what is the public mood like, as the government approaches the end of its term on March 18, 2013? A glance at the news can be very discouraging. In recent weeks, border tensions have mounted yet again between Pakistan and its neighbour India; fresh outbreaks of sectarian violence have made headlines; a Sufi cleric brought tens of thousands of people into the streets demanding an end to corruption; and the judiciary is demanding that yet another prime minister be arrested for graft.
Democracy in Pakistan: Hopes and concerns ahead of landmark elections Spring 2013 3 As polling day approaches, it has perhaps been the arrival on the political scene of Muhammad Tahirul Qadri, who led four days of street protests in Islamabad to try to force government to resign, which has been the major political development. Qadri rallied 40,000 to 60,000 people, many from the middle class, with his calls for an end to the endemic corruption that has corroded the Pakistani political and administrative system. This support has come despite his dubious links to the military and years of residency in Canada and demonstrates that Pakistanis are seeking change of the kind they no longer believe their mainstream parties can provide. "The people who went to the rallies were educated. They weren't illiterates who were herded there. This shows how the middle class is trying to find their way out. If he can mobilise their support, then basically this country is ripe for any person who can come and represent their voice", said Zahid Hussain, author of the books Frontline Pakistan and The Scorpion s Tail. Spoiling the party Public disillusionment with Pakistan's political parties is high. Many are run by single families, while some families have influence and interests in several parties at once. It means that power is concentrated into a very few hands, and passed down to their descendents. Even the opposition has struggled to inspire voters, missing a rare chance to harness support when Qadri arrived on the scene. "There was a call from the people of Pakistan, even from people who were not there, for the opposition parties to come forward and give real impetus to a movement for change, and that fundamentally failed to happen. It is quite depressing", said Karim. He urged civil society to become more engaged to ensure that a genuine movement of change gains momentum to promote further reforms. A Taliban take-over is the greatest fear of Pakistan. Tens thousands of Pakistani troops are fighting them Zahid Hussain, Journalist and Correspondent for The Times and The Wall Street Journal Beyond the parties, poor governance remains a serious concern. Analysts say that the government of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf has failed to rein in the fiscal deficit, which is close to the highest level in the country's history, while poverty has continued to climb. It has also proved ineffective at maintain-
4 Friends of Europe Asia Programme ing law and order - even at protecting judges - and terrorism remains a huge threat to the state. The withdrawal of NATO-led troops from Afghanistan in 2014 is expected to bring further instability, particularly in the lawless tribal areas on their shared border. Hussain rejected the widespread perception in the West that Pakistan might benefit from having the Taliban take power in Kabul. "A Taliban take-over is the greatest fear of Pakistan. The ramifications would be very severe. Tens of thousands of Pakistani troops are fighting them. If it does happen, then forget about control over Pakistan's tribal areas. That will be under the control of the Taliban", he said. Europe's role The elections come as European Union is trying to bolster ties with Pakistan under a five-year engagement plan. Europe has been providing support for democracy, trade and economic opportunities, human rights exchanges and has worked with Islamabad on other areas of mutual interest. The Union's focus has been to provide support for Pakistan's civilian leaders and to demand improved governance, while Pakistan, whose largest trading partner is the EU, has sought better market access. Over the 2009-2013 period, some 485 million euros in EU funding was earmarked for Pakistan, including grants from the European Investment Bank. Another 423 million euros has been provided in humanitarian assistance. The last polls in 2008 were monitored by a team of around a dozen EU observers. For Gahler, who led that effort and could also head a new EU delegation this time around, a key objective was to strengthen the election commission, which is the one body that should be above party politics and best placed to resist meddling. To do this effectively, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) must have financial independence and powers to impose decisions right through the command chain. Experts say that the role of the commission has been boosted, as well as the powers of its chief commissioner. Still outstanding, is the need for a mechanism to settle disputes both in the run up to
Democracy in Pakistan: Hopes and concerns ahead of landmark elections Spring 2013 5 the polls and after the results are made public. More than a dozen tribunals are in place for addressing disputes, but they are often too slow to be effective. Disappointingly, a parliamentary sub-committee tasked with following up on the international recommendations for improving the electoral process was largely ineffective, holding only one closed-door session with nongovernmental organisations. Pros and cons More broadly, voter registration remains uneven. Of the 84.3 million voters registered by July 2012 - Pakistan has a population estimated at more than 187 million people - only 36 million were women. Analysts say it demonstrates a real lack of registration among women in some of the regions. Another issue is where and how internally displaced people should register and vote, while among the wider electorate around 10 percent of addresses on voting registers are incorrect, and it is unclear how the ECP plans to deal with the problem. Some minor concerns also remain about the use of the Pakistani media in campaigning, although most participants agreed the press and broadcasters are generally growing in confidence and maturity. And of course the threat of sectarian violence hangs over the polls, some of it very specifically targeted and worrying to certain candidates, according to local officials. On the positive side, Pakistan's parliament appears to be functioning correctly. Since 2008, the assembly has passed twice the number of bills than were adopted in the previous legislature, while the number of presidential orders imposed has halved In cases where it hasn't performed, Pakistan's Supreme Court has been willing to step in to fill any vacuum. While the court has sometimes over-stepped its mandate, many believe its activism has been a deterrent to the military and is helping to keep a lid on corruption. From the outside, Pakistan often appears to be caught in a chaotic cycle fueled by corruption, cronyism, violence and poverty. But participants were very cautiously optimistic that democracy might finally be taking root, as the first transition to democratic civilian rule pushes Pakistan's history of military rule deeper into the past.
Democracy in Pakistan: Hopes and concerns ahead of landmark elections Spring 2013 7 ANNEX I Programme 09.00 09.30 Registration of participants 09.30 09.40 INTRODUCTION AND OPENING REMARKS: 09.40 11.00 SESSION I Michael Meyer-Resende, Executive Director of Democracy Reporting International (DRI) THE POLITICAL CONTEXT: ACHIEVEMENTS SINCE 2008 AND CHALLENGES Democracy in Pakistan has a chequered history: long bouts of military rule have been followed by elections, the installation of weak civilian governments which are, in turn, ousted by military coups d état. The country may be turning a corner, however: for the first time in its 66-year old history, a democratically-elected civilian government in Pakistan will complete its five-year term in March 2013. Elections for national and provincial assemblies will be held shortly afterwards. However, is democracy really now firmly entrenched in Pakistan? What are the key successes and failures of the civilian government which was elected in 2008? Are Pakistan s politicians doing enough to tackle the country s immense economic and social challenges? What can be done to ensure the modernisation of Pakistan s political parties? Zahid Hussain Sajjad Karim MEP Journalist and Correspondent for The Times and The Wall Street Journal Member of the European Parliament and Chair of the European Parliament Friends of Pakistan Group Moderated by Shada Islam, Head of Policy at Friends of Europe 11.00 11.30 Coffee break 11.30 12.50 SESSION II THE ELECTORAL FRAMEWORK: REFORMS AND KEY CHALLENGES Pakistan s last elections were held under a framework and environment that provided significant challenges for the conduct of democratic polls. European election observers said, however, that on election day itself voting was positive on the whole and also noted the courageous commitment to the democratic process by voters, candidates, election staff, and representatives of media and civil society under challenging security conditions. What preparations are being made to ensure that the upcoming polls are free and fair? How independent is the Pakistan Election Commission? Have any of the comments and recommendations made by foreign elections observers been taken on board by the Pakistani authorities? Joe Brinker Michael Gahler MEP Vladimir Pran Senior Democracy and Governance Advisor at the Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Member of the European Parliament and Chief Observer of the European Union 2008 Election Observation Mission to Pakistan Country Director of Democracy Reporting International (DRI) Pakistan Moderated by Shada Islam, Head of Policy at Friends of Europe 12.50 13.00 CLOSING REMARKS: Andrew Bruce, Executive Director of Electoral Reform International Services (ERIS) 13.00 End of Roundtable The meeting was held under Chatham House Rule
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