in the long run Dr. Wido Geis 5.10.2016, Berlin
Refugee immigration and population development In 1.000 89.000 87.000 85.000 Statistisches Bundesamt 2015- variants 1-8 and W3 IW estimation 80% Intervall 60% Intervall 83.000 81.000 79.000 77.000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Sources: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft; Statistisches Bundesamt, 2015 Slide 2
Expected development of the labour force In 1.000 60.000 58.000 56.000 54.000 52.000 50.000 48.000 46.000 44.000 Labour force Upper and lower bound 52,7 Mio. Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Slide 3
Assesment of employers on the labour market potentials of the refugees Economic potentials of the refugee immigration Question: In how far do you think the refugee immigration will be a potential for the coverage of your staff requirements in the next five years? Total 5,1 14,4 32,0 27,6 19,2 Experience with refugees 13,9 39,3 16,8 15,3 7,5 No experience with refugees 4,3 12,2 33,4 28,7 20,3 1 to 49 employees 5,1 14,2 31,2 28,0 19,7 50 to 249 employees 5,7 20,6 49,2 17,8 6,0 250 an more employees 2,5 22,8 50,9 14,4 7,7 Large potential Medium potential Low potential No potential No staff requirements Don't know Shares in percent Source: IW-Personalpanel 2016 Slide 4
Hurdles for the recruitment of refugees Question: In how far are the following points hurdles for the recruitment of refugees for your company? Insufficient skills in German language 66,5 19,1 8,1 5,1 Insufficient professional competencies 47,6 22,4 13,8 13,3 Insufficient information about the qualification level of the refugees 36,7 30,7 12,1 8,4 12,0 Insecurity about the employement duration 33,2 30,7 14,8 9,2 12,2 Bureaucratic effort for the recruitment of refugees 25,3 29,8 15,6 5,2 24,0 Large hurdle Medium hurdle Small hurdle No hurdle Don't know Shares in percent Source: IW-Personalpanel 2016 Slide 5
Determinants of the long run labour market effects of the refugee immigration Qualificatory matching The qualifications that refugees bring along or achieve in Germany should correspond to the demand for workforce. Regional matching The refugees should predominantly settle in the regions with high demand for workforce. Slide 6
Labour demand by qualification level Vacancies, April 2016 Registered vacancies Unemployed per registered vacancy 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 Total Unskilled workers Professionals Specialists Experts 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Slide 7 Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2016
Qualifications of unemployed refugees Foreigners from refugee countries, May 2016 Syrians 77,8 3,6 8,7 10,0 Syrians, Iraqis, Afghans, and Eritreans 88,8 3,5 4,4 3,3 Total populations 48,3 41,8 7,5 2,4 0 20 40 60 80 100 Without formal qualification Professional degree Academic degree Not specified Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2016 Slide 8
Current labour market situation in the regions Schleswig-Holstein Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Different situations: Bremen Hamburg Lower Saxony Ø High, partly unmet labour demand in large parts of southern Germany Saxony-Anhalt Berlin Brandenburg Ø High, unused labour supply in Eastern Germany and the Rhine-Ruhr Metropolitan Region North Rhine-Westphalia Rhineland-Palatinate Hesse Thuringia Saxony Saarland Bavaria Baden-Württemberg Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2016 Slide 9
Expectable future labour market developments Schleswig-Holstein The share of older workers is high in Eastern Germany Bremen Hamburg Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Niedersachsen Berlin In the next years, a substantial part of the workforce will leave the labour market. This may lead to shortages, as there are not enough young people to replace them. Nordrhein-Westfalen Hessen Thüringen Sachsen-Anhalt Brandenburg Sachsen Not the case the Rhine-Ruhr Metropolitan Region Rheinland-Pfalz Saarland Bayern Baden-Württemberg Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2016 Slide 10
Regional distribution of recognised refugees Uneven distribution: Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Ø High shares of refugees in northwestern Germany especially the Rhine-Ruhr Metropolitan Region à Regions with low labour needs Bremen Niedersachsen Sachsen-Anhalt Berlin Brandenburg Nordrhein-Westfalen Ø Low shares of refugees in Bavaria à Region with high actual labour needs Ø and Eastern Germany à Region with potentially high future labour needs Rheinland-Pfalz Hessen Thüringen Sachsen Saarland Bayern Baden-Württemberg Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2016 Slide 11
Thank you für your attention! Dr. Wido Geis ( 0221 4981-705 - geis@iwkoeln.de Slide 12