THE ARAB AMERICAN VOTE AMMU S

2016 THE ARAB AMERICAN VOTE AMMU S Identity & Political Concerns Date of Release: October 25, 2016 WANTS YO TO #YALLAV WWW.AAIUSA.ORG

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY POLITICAL CONCERNS In a survey of 502 Arab Americans conducted by Zogby Analytics between 10/4/16 and 10/12/16, Hillary Clinton tops Donald Trump among likely voters 60% to 26%. 60% OF ARAB AMERICAN VOTERS PLAN TO VOTE FOR CLINTON 26% OF ARAB AMERICAN VOTERS PLAN TO VOTE FOR TRUMP The steady migration of Arab Americans away from the Republican party continues, with Arab American Democrats outnumbering Republicans by a 2-1 margin. A majority of Arab Americans support Hillary Clinton for the Presidency, citing her domestic policies and party affiliation among their main motivations. Almost one-third of registered voters responded that voting against Trump was their primary reason for their support of Clinton. Trump supporters make up 25% of the community; 32% cite opposition to Clinton and 24% cite party affiliation as their main motivations. The foreign policy of each candidate does not factor into voters decisions. 10% of Republicans, and 16% of Independents have not declared their support for a candidate this election season, compared to 2% of Democrats. 91% of Arab Americans report they are likely to vote on November 8th. #1 ISSUE FOR ARAB AMERICANS JOBS/ECONOMY All sides cite jobs and the economy as the most important issue in determining their vote. Republicans cite combatting terrorism as their second issue of concern, while Democrats cite gun violence. A strong majority of Arab Americans, believe that undocumented immigrants with no criminal record, currently in the United States should be eligible for a pathway to legal status. 62% of Arab Americans agree that policing needs to be reformed, but not radically. Defeating ISIS, ending the conflict in Syria, and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are most frequently cited as the most important challenges facing U.S.-Arab relations. A majority of Arab Americans, and a majority of likely Arab American voters, believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely to pursue policies that would be beneficial to improving US relations with the Arab World. IDENTITY AND PERSONAL CONCERNS Arab American identification (identifying as Arab American and by country of origin, or as Arab American alone) totals 62%. Overall, the community is extremely proud of its ethnic heritage. Half of all Arab Americans have personally experienced discrimination in the past because of their ethnicity or country of origin, and 62% of Arab Americans are concerned about future discrimination. Nearly 8 out of 10 Arab Americans who are Muslim are concerned about facing discrimination in the future. 1/2 OF ARAB AMERICANS HAVE PERSONALLY EXPERIENCED DISCRIMINATION METHODOLOGY Zogby Analytics was commissioned by AAI to conduct a hybrid (online and live operator telephone) survey of 502 Arab Americans. Participants were derived from national voter lists and screened using a surname list. Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 502 is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Total refers to total registered voters, Likely voters are those who responded they are likely to vote. All breakouts refer to registered voters.

I. ARAB AMERICAN VOTERS Party Identification Party Total Native Foreign 18-34 55+ Male Female Catholic Orthodox/ Protestant Democratic 52 54 46 57 51 41 64 55 39 63 Republican 26 26 23 21 27 36 15 26 45 12 Muslim Independent 22 19 31 22 22 23 21 20 16 25 A majority (52%) of Arab Americans identify with the Democratic party, the highest percentage since the 2008 Presidential election. Women are more likely than men to identify as Democrats; less than 1 out of every 6 Arab American women identify as a Republican. One-fifth (21%) of Arab Americans identify as Independents. Arab American Muslims are the least likely religious group to identify as Republican; 63% identify as Democrats. 31% of foreign born Arab Americans identify as Independent. Party 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Democratic 38 40 39 39 45 54 50 46 44 52 Republican 36 38 31 31 31 27 25 22 23 26 Independent 23 18 14 14 19 17 23 24 15 22 60 50 45 54 50 46 44 52 Independent Republican 40 38 40 39 39 Democrat 30 20 10 36 23 1996 38 18 2000 31 31 31 19 14 14 2002 2004 2006 27 25 17 23 2008 2010 24 22 2012 23 15 2014 26 22 2016 3 www.aaiusa.org

If the Election for President of the United States were held today and the candidates were Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, Republican nominee Donald Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote? Candidate Total Likely Voters Democrat Hillary Clinton Republican Donald Trump Green Party Jill Stein Libertarian Gary Johnson Dem Rep Ind Native 58 60 84 10 53 57 60 25 26 5 77 13 25 24 4 4 4 11 4 5 5 4 5 2 7 5 4 Not Sure 8 6 2 10 16 8 7 Foreign Candidate 18-34 55+ Male Female Catholic Orthodox/ Protestant Democrat Hillary Clinton Republican Donald Trump Green Party Jill Stein Libertarian Gary Johnson 64 45 47 69 63 42 67 19 31 35 15 20 48 12 2 4 6 3 2 3 9 13 2 5 4 1 3 10 Not Sure 2 19 7 9 15 4 3 Muslim A majority of Arab Americans support Hillary Clinton for the presidency, with one-quarter supporting Donald Trump. A majority of Independents support Clinton, and 16% are still undecided. 1 in 10 Arab American Republicans are still undecided. Women are significantly more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton than men. Strong majorities of Arab American Catholics and Muslims support Hillary Clinton, while Orthodox/Protestants are divided between the candidates. 4 www.aaiusa.org

Which of the following reasons best explains why you are voting for Donald Trump? Reason Total I Vote Republican 24 Domestic Issues/ I like his stand on the economy and other domestic issues 23 Foreign Policy/ I like his foreign policy 13 I like him as a person 2 Voting against Clinton/Democrats 32 Other 6 Not Sure 1 A plurality of supporting Trump cite a vote against Clinton/Democrats as a primary consideration. Almost no Trump supporters claim that their primary motivation is that they like Trump as a person. Nearly a quarter of Trump supporters cite party affiliation as their primary motivation, while another quarter cite Trumps domestic policies. Which of the following reasons best explains why you are voting for Hillary Clinton? Reason Total I Vote Democrat 21 Domestic Issues/ I like her stand on the economy and other domestic issues 23 Foreign Policy/ I like her foreign policy 10 I like her as a person 4 Voting against Trump/Republicans 31 Other 9 Not Sure 1 A plurality of supporting Clinton cite a vote against Trump/Republicans as a primary consideration. About one-fifth of Clinton supports cite party affiliation as a primary motivation, with 23% citing her domestic policies. Only 4% of Clinton supporters claim that their primary motivation is that they like her as a person 5 www.aaiusa.org

Of the following characteristics, which TWO are most important in your choice of a presidential candidate? Characteristic Total Clinton Trump Strong Leadership 47 44 61 Honesty 37 33 32 Good Moral Character 24 26 21 Experience 24 35 6 Bring People Together Change Washington Makes me proud to be an American 24 30 11 18 8 35 13 12 21 Strong leadership and honesty are the most frequently cited characteristics overall for Arab Americans in choosing a presidential candidate. Clinton supporters cited strong leadership and experience as their most important characteristics, while Trump supporters chose strong leadership and change Washington. Clinton and Trump supporters mirror each other when giving weight to experience and an ability to change Washington. 8% of Clinton supporters and 35% of Trump supporters cited change Washington as an important characteristic for presidential candidates whereas 35% of Clinton supporters and 6% of Trump supporters cited experience. Which Party would you rather have in control of Congress Democrats or Republicans?P Party Total Dem Rep Ind Democrats 54 86 5 44 Republicans 27 3 83 20 Neither 15 9 11 30 Not Sure 4 2 1 7 A majority of Arab Americans would rather have Democrats in control of Congress. Likely to Vote Definitely/Very Likely Somewhat/Not Likely Total 18-34 55+ Male Female 91 88 96 89 93 7 9 1 8 6 91% of Arab Americans are likely to vote in the Presidential election on November 8th. 88% of Arab American millennials are likely to vote. 6 www.aaiusa.org

II. OBAMA S LEGACY Overall, how would you rate President Obama s job performance? Performance Total Dem Rep Ind Excellent 31 49 10 20 Good 29 32 11 37 Fair 19 13 24 30 Poor 20 6 53 12 Not Sure 1 2 1 A strong majority (60%) of Arab Americans give President Obama a good or excellent job performance rating. 8 out of every 10 Democrats responded with a good or excellent job performance rating for President Obama. 57% of Independents gave the President a good or excellent job performance rating. A majority of Republicans gave the President a poor rating. Overall, how would you rate President Obama s performance in handling U.S. economic policy? Performance Total Dem Rep Ind Excellent 27 40 5 26 Good 30 41 9 29 Fair 19 9 27 24 Poor 21 9 53 14 Not Sure 4 1 7 7 A majority of Arab Americans rated President Obama s handling of U.S. economic policy good or excellent. 1 in 5 Arab Americans, and a majority of Republicans, rated the President s handling of U.S. economic policy poor. Overall, how would you rate President Obama s performance in handling U.S. foreign policy? Performance Total Dem Rep Ind Excellent 18 30 5 8 Good 26 36 10 27 Fair 24 21 15 32 Poor 31 14 70 29 Not Sure 1 5 A plurality of Arab Americans gave a poor rating to President Obama s performance in handling U.S. foreign policy. Democrats and Republicans mirror each other with 66% of Democrats giving a good or excellent rating and 70% of Republicans giving a poor rating to the Presiden t handling of foreign policy. Independents are split in their evaluation. 7 www.aaiusa.org

How do you rate your attitude, in general, toward U.S. President Barack Obama s policies toward the Arab World? Attitude Total Dem Rep Ind Very Positive 19 30 3 12 Somewhat Positive 40 45 19 47 Somewhat Negative 20 14 30 25 Very negative 17 10 39 12 A majority (59%) of Arab Americans have a net positive attitude toward President Obama s policies toward the Arab World. The Obama Administration has faced many challenges in dealing with the Arab World. In your opinion, which two of the following challenges are the most important for U.S.-Arab relations? (Choose up to two.) In your opinion, in the following list of challenges that the U.S. has faced in the Arab World, which do you feel the Obama Administration has been effective in addressing? Ineffective? (Choose all that apply.) Issues Important Effective Ineffective Responding to the challenge of defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Ending the conflict in Syria Meeting the humanitarian needs of the Syrian refugees Helping to stabilize and rebuild Iraq Maintaining trust and close ties with allies and friends in the Arab World Working to counter the threat posed by Iran 46 32 49 34 21 54 38 20 60 21 26 45 8 29 38 23 39 34 12 28 32 Not Sure 4 19 6 Defeating ISIS, ending the conflict in Syria, and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were most frequently cited by all groups. Democrats cited defeating ISIS as their top priority for U.S.-Arab relations, while Republicans and Independents were split between defeating ISIS and ending the conflict in Syria as their first priority. Overall, Arab Americans feel the Obama Administration has been most effective in maintaining trust and close ties with allies and friends in the Arab World. Arab Americans cite ending the conflict in Syria most frequently as the issue the Obama Administration has been ineffective in addressing. Republicans cited defeating ISIS most frequently, while Independents were split between ending the conflict in Syria and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 8 www.aaiusa.org

In the upcoming U.S. presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, which of the two do you feel would be more likely to pursue policies that would be beneficial to improving US relations with the Arab World? Candidate Total Likely Voters Dem Rep Ind Hillary Clinton 52 55 71 10 56 Donald Trump 23 23 9 59 15 Neither one 24 22 21 29 28 Not Sure 1 1 2 1 Not sure 4 2 9 4 A majority of Arab Americans, and a majority of likely Arab American voters, believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely to pursue policies that would be beneficial to improving US relations with the Arab World. Nearly a quarter of Arab American believe neither one would pursue policies beneficial to improving U.S.-Arab relations. III. POLICY CONCERNS Of the following issues, in your opinion, which are the most important in determining your vote for President? Issue Total Dem Rep Ind Race relations in the US today 10 13 8 7 Gun violence 13 21 2 11 The Environment and Climate Change 8 11 3 9 Combatting terrorism 14 10 27 8 The Budget Deficit and Controlling Government Spending 16 13 26 13 Education 12 11 7 20 Social Security and Medicare 15 19 12 11 Immigration Reform 13 10 21 16 Jobs and the Economy 31 31 33 27 Partisanship in Washington 2 1 3 3 Solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 14 13 12 18 Ending the War in Syria 12 11 18 9 Health Care 18 19 8 20 The Declining Middle Class 15 14 13 18 Not Sure 6 1 1 1 Jobs and the economy are far and away the most cited issue of importance to Arab Americans. Healthcare is the second most cited, although Republicans cite it far less frequently than Democrats or Independents. Democrats are more concerned about gun violence than Republicans or Independents; Independents are more concerned about education than any other group. 9 www.aaiusa.org

Regardless of whom you will be voting for in November, using the same list, in your opinion, which of the following issues do you believe Hillary Clinton would be best able to address? Issue Total Dem Rep Ind Race relations in the US today 40 52 14 41 Gun violence 39 49 16 45 The Environment and Climate Change 35 42 20 37 Combatting terrorism 28 36 12 24 The Budget Deficit and Controlling Government Spending 27 37 8 18 Education 42 53 17 51 Social Security and Medicare 37 49 11 37 Immigration Reform 34 48 9 33 Jobs and the Economy 40 52 17 33 Partisanship in Washington 21 26 19 13 Solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 19 25 10 16 Ending the War in Syria 25 30 19 14 Health Care 49 63 18 47 The Declining Middle Class 13 42 10 34 Not Sure 13 1 39 14 Health Care, was the most cited issue that Arab Americans felt Hillary Clinton would best be able to address, followed by education, the economy, and race relations. Independents cited education as the issue Clinton would be best at addressing, and Republicans most frequently responded that they were not sure. 10 www.aaiusa.org

Regardless of whom you will be voting for in November, using the same list, in your opinion, which of the following issues do you believe Donald Trump would be best able to address? Issue Total Dem Rep Ind Race relations in the US today 15 9 27 15 Gun violence 15 9 26 18 The Environment and Climate Change 10 4 25 7 Combatting terrorism 26 15 51 26 The Budget Deficit and Controlling Government Spending 25 14 46 25 Education 14 11 25 10 Social Security and Medicare 16 13 22 13 Immigration Reform 24 13 48 25 Jobs and the Economy 26 18 49 20 Partisanship in Washington 15 8 31 16 Solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 14 6 32 13 Ending the War in Syria 14 8 28 15 Health Care 17 13 30 13 The Declining Middle Class 15 6 28 20 Not Sure 38 49 5 46 Arab Americans most frequently responded that they were not sure what issue Donald Trump would be best able to address. Republicans cited combatting terrorism as the issue Trump would be best at addressing. Which best reflects your view of policing practices in the United States? View on Policing Total Clinton Trump Dem Rep Ind Policing in America is overly militarized and perpetuates systematic racism Policing in America needs to be reformed, but not radically In a difficult climate, policing practices are as good as can be expected The climate of criticism and antagonism toward the police is unfair and is the biggest problem facing policing today 23 29 10 29 15 24 39 44 29 45 29 38 9 9 12 8 11 9 23 12 43 14 40 28 Not Sure 6 6 6 5 5 2 A plurality of Arab American agree that policing needs to be reformed, but not radically. 2 out of every 5 Republicans believe that the climate of criticism and antagonism toward the police is unfair and is the biggest problem facing policing today. 11 www.aaiusa.org

Which best reflects your view on how to resolve the issue of undocumented immigrants in the United States. Immigration View Total Clinton Trump Dem Rep Ind I believe that undocumented immigrants, with no criminal record, currently in the United States should be eligible for a pathway to legal status I believe that undocumented immigrants, with no criminal record, must first leave the United States and wait for a period of time before being eligible to apply for legal status I believe that undocumented immigrants, whether or not they have a criminal record, should be deported 70 77 55 78 49 77 21 17 29 15 33 16 8 4 14 6 15 3 Not Sure 2 2 2 1 3 3 A strong majority of Arab Americans, and nearly half of Republicans, believe that undocumented immigrants with no criminal record, currently in the United States should be eligible for a pathway to legal status. IV. IDENTITY & PERSONAL CONCERNS Self Description If the following are the choices, how are you most likely to describe yourself? Total Native Foreign Dem Rep Ind 18-34 55+ Catholic Orthodox/ Protestant Muslim Country of origin 19 18 22 20 20 15 23 10 29 15 14 Arab American 43 41 51 45 37 50 35 49 29 50 54 By Both 19 19 17 21 18 15 31 10 20 9 25 Neither 18 20 10 12 24 20 9 29 20 25 6 Not Sure 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 Arab American identification (identifying as Arab American and by country of origin, or as Arab American alone) totals 62%. 54% of Arab Americans who are Muslim and 50% of Arab Americans who are Orthodox or Protestant identify as Arab American alone. Catholics are the only subgroup in which a majority of individuals do not identify as Arab American. 12 www.aaiusa.org

Self Description Now, if the following are the choices, how are you most likely to describe yourself? Total Native Foreign Dem Rep Ind 18-34 55+ Catholic Orthodox/ Protestant Muslim Country of origin 18 17 19 19 19 16 21 15 27 13 12 Religion 10 10 11 14 9 3 17 7 5 14 14 Arab American All of the Above 35 32 42 34 24 50 33 30 25 29 47 21 22 20 21 27 18 19 25 26 20 21 Neither 15 17 7 10 20 14 5 23 16 24 4 Not Sure 2 2 3 3 1 5 2 3 When religion is added as an option, Arab American identification (identifying as Arab American or as all three categories) drops to 56%, but remains the way a majority of Arab Americans identify themselves. Ethnic Pride Total Native On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being not at all proud and 5 being extremely proud, how proud are you of your ethnic heritage? Foreign Dem Rep Ind 18-34 55+ Catholic Orthodox/ Muslim 1 Not at all proud 3 3 4 1 3 1 1 1 5 4 1 2 2 3 1 1 3 5 1 5 6 1 3 9 10 5 8 15 5 14 10 6 15 4 4 15 17 11 18 13 11 22 12 10 18 16 5 Extremely Proud 69 66 79 70 67 76 62 71 77 57 79 Not Sure 1 2 1 1 2 2 A strong majority of Arab Americans are proud of their ethnic heritage. Millennial Arab Americans are the least likely to feel extremely proud, while Republicans (80%) are least likely to take pride in their ethnic heritage overall. 13 www.aaiusa.org

Have you personally experienced discrimination in the past because of your ethnicity or country of origin? Total Native Foreign Dem Rep Ind 18-34 55+ Catholic Orthodox/ Protestant Muslim Yes 50 54 37 61 42 38 65 29 35 50 63 No 47 43 61 37 54 60 33 69 65 46 34 Not Sure 3 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 3 3 Half of all Arab Americans have personally experienced discrimination in the past because of their ethnicity or country of origin. Arab Americans who are Muslim (63%) and millennials (65%) are the most likely to have experienced discrimination, while older generations (29%) and Arab American who are Catholics (35%) are least likely. How concerned are you about facing discrimination in the future because of your ethnicity or country of origin? Total Native Foreign Dem Rep Ind 18-34 55+ Catholic Orthodox/ Protestant Muslim Very concerned Somewhat concerned 25 26 24 31 19 13 33 7 14 17 46 37 38 35 36 33 46 46 24 39 38 32 Not concerned 37 36 41 33 47 40 21 69 47 45 22 Not Sure 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 62% of Arab Americans are concerned about future discrimination. Arab Americans who are Muslim (78%) are the most concerned about facing discrimination in the future. Older Arab Americans are the only group in which a majority say they are not concerned about future discrimination. 14 www.aaiusa.org