CBS NEWS POLL For release: Thursday, February 18, 2016 7:00 AM EST The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top He ll Get Things Done February 12-16, 2016 Donald Trump (35%) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17 point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18%). John Kasich (11%) has now risen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12%). Trump leads among nearly every demographic group. More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support, but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up. Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will work within the system. Donald Trump is also seen as most likely to get things done in Washington, far outpacing his rivals on this measure. Trump trails Cruz and Rubio on sharing the values of Republican primary voters and on having realistic policies, but half still think he is prepared to be President, and he is widely seen as the most electable candidate of the field. He rates higher than Cruz or Rubio on handling the economy and an international crisis. Where the Race Stands With the first votes already cast in Iowa and New Hampshire - and with the once sprawling Republican presidential field whittled down to six remaining candidates - Donald Trump continues to hold a doubledigit lead over the rest of the Republican field nationally. 35% of Republican primary voters support Trump, 17 points ahead of his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18%). These numbers are virtually unchanged from a month ago. There has been little movement among the remaining six Republican candidates, with one notable exception. After a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Ohio Governor John Kasich who has consistently trailed all the remaining candidates since August has shot up to 11%, challenging Florida Senator Marco Rubio for third place. Jeb Bush (4%) has slipped to last place among the six remaining candidates, behind Ben Carson (6%). 2016 Republican Nomination for President Now 1/2016 12/2015 10/2015 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 35% 36% 35% 22% 27% 24% Ted Cruz 18 19 16 4 5 6 Marco Rubio 12 12 9 8 6 6 John Kasich 11 2 3 4 3 1 Ben Carson 6 6 13 26 23 6 Jeb Bush 4 6 3 7 6 13 Don t know 8 7 7 6 9 9
46% of Republican primary voters say they have now made up their minds about whom to vote for, up from 35% last month. But Trump s supporters are surer about their choice: Two-thirds of Trump voters now say they have made up their minds. Among those supporting other candidates, the race is more fluid; two-thirds of them may still change their minds. Mind Made Up on Candidate Choice? Total Voters Trump Voters Non-Trump Voters Now 1/2016 Now 1/2016 Now 1/2016 Yes, mind is made up 46% 35% 65% 52% 33% 24% No, too early 53 64 34 47 66 76 Trump s support cuts across nearly every demographic group in the Republican electorate. He holds a double digit lead among Republicans and independents, men and women, white evangelicals, and Americans of all income levels. He leads among Republican voters of all age and education levels, but does particularly well among voters without college degrees. Trump also holds a double digit lead among moderates and those who describe themselves as somewhat conservative, and has a five point lead over Ted Cruz among very conservative Republican voters. 2016 Republican Nomination for President Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Total 35% 18 12 11 Republicans 36% 19 12 11 Independents 32% 17 11 11 Men 39% 18 13 12 Women 31% 18 11 10 Moderate 34% 9 13 19 Somewhat conservative 33% 19 14 9 Very conservative 35% 30 12 4 White evangelicals 33% 22 13 6 Age 18-44 31% 21 12 14 Age 45-64 37% 17 12 8 Age 65+ 37% 16 12 12 Income under $50K 41% 17 9 9 Income $50K-$100K 31% 18 12 11 Income $100K+ 32% 18 16 14 High school or less 47% 17 8 7 Some College 33% 18 13 7 College grads+ 25% 19 15 18
Enthusiasm for the Eventual Nominee 35% of Republican primary voters would enthusiastically support a Trump candidacy (down slightly from 40% in January), slightly higher than enthusiasm for Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio if either of them became the Republican nominee. Just one in five Republican primary voters would not support Donald Trump if he were to win the nomination. If is the Republican Nominee, Would You? Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Support enthusiastically 35% 32% 31% Support with reservations 28 26 27 Support because they are nominee 14 20 22 Would not support 20 18 17 Shaking Things Up, Getting Things Done Most Republican primary voters don t want the next president to cater to the status quo in Washington. 70% want someone who will shake up the political system, while just 24% want someone who will work within the political system. Do You Want the Next President to? Shake up the system 70% Work within the system 24 Donald Trump is the top choice among those who want a candidate that will shake up the system, at 42%. Those who want a candidate who will work within the system are torn between Marco Rubio (25%) and John Kasich (21%). 2016 Republican Nomination for President Total Want a candidate who will Voters Shake up the system Work within the system Donald Trump 35% 42% 18% Ted Cruz 18 19 16 Marco Rubio 12 8 25 John Kasich 11 8 21 Ben Carson 6 6 4 Jeb Bush 4 3 6 Don t know 8 10 6 And by a large margin, Trump is seen as the candidate most likely to get things done once he gets to Washington. 43% of Republican primary voters pick Trump for this, compared to 16% for Ted Cruz and 13% for Marco Rubio.
Candidate Strengths and Weaknesses Most Likely to Get Things Done in Washington Donald Trump 43% Ted Cruz 16 Marco Rubio 13 John Kasich 10 Jeb Bush 5 Ben Carson 4 Trump is also seen as by far the most electable of the candidates still in the race, and confidence in Trump s chances in the general election has risen considerably over the course of the campaign. Even those not backing Trump pick him as the candidate most likely to win in November. Best Chance of Winning in November Now 10/2015 9/2015 7/2015 Donald Trump 53% 41% 39% 26% Ted Cruz 18 3 4 4 Marco Rubio 12 8 5 4 John Kasich 4 1 2 1 Jeb Bush 3 8 11 4 Ben Carson 1 21 18 1 As attention shifts to the Supreme Court after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, Republican primary voters are split between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz over who is most trusted to make appointments to the Supreme Court. Moderates strongly favor Trump, while conservatives particularly those who consider themselves very conservative favor Cruz. Trust Most to Make Appointment to the Supreme Court Total Moderates Somewhat Conservative Very Conservative Donald Trump 25% 27% 24% 19% Ted Cruz 25 16 27 38 Marco Rubio 12 11 10 13 Ben Carson 12 9 10 17 John Kasich 10 16 9 5 Jeb Bush 9 12 12 6 51% of Republican primary voters think Donald Trump is prepared to be President - though slightly more think so of Ted Cruz (57%). Just 42% of Republican primary voters think Marco Rubio is prepared to be President. Are They Prepared to Be President? Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Yes 51% 57% 42% No 44 36 48
Despite his many perceived strengths with voters, the percentage who think Donald Trump shares their values has dropped slightly since January, from 59% last month to 50% today. Trump trails both Cruz and Rubio when it comes to sharing the values of Republican primary voters. Do They Share Your Values? Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Now 1/2016 Now 1/2016 Now 2016 Yes 50% 59% 56% 63% 56% 59% No 44 35 35 24 34 27 In addition, many Republican primary voters don t think Donald Trump s policies are realistic: 44% think they are and 50% think they are not. In contrast, majorities of Republican primary voters think both Ted Cruz (57%) and Marco Rubio (58%) have realistic policy proposals. Are Their Policies Realistic? Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Yes 44% 57% 58% No 50 33 31 Not surprisingly, Trump voters see things differently. Nine in 10 Trump voters think he shares their values, and eight in 10 Trump voters think his policies are realistic. Far more Republican primary voters are very confident in Donald Trump s ability to handle the economy (49%) than either Ted Cruz (21%) or Marco Rubio (17%), and he has a clear, if smaller, advantage over both Cruz and Rubio on handling an international crisis. Confidence in These Candidates on Handling (Among Republican Primary Voters) Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio The Economy Very 49% 21% 17% Somewhat 28 47 43 Not too/not at all 22 29 35 An International Crisis Very 29% 24% 17% Somewhat 29 38 39 Not too/not at all 40 34 40 What Republicans Want in a Candidate Overall, a candidate who shares their values (42%) is the candidate quality most desired by Republican primary voters. 28% of Republican primary voters most want a candidate who says what they believe, while experience (15%) and electability (12%) are further down on the list of priorities. For Trump voters, however, having a candidate who says what he believes (39%) is more important than having a candidate who shares their values (33%).
Which Candidate Quality is Most Important? Total Trump Voters Non-Trump Voters Sharing my values 42% 33% 49% Saying what they believe 28 39 22 Having the right experience 15 11 15 Can win in November 12 14 11 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- This poll was conducted by telephone February 12-16, 2016 among a random sample of 2,007 adults nationwide, including 1,641 registered voters and 581 registered voters likely to vote in a Republican primary. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus two percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 581 Republican primary voters could be plus or minus five percentage points. The error for other subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.
CBS NEWS POLL The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top He ll Get Things Done February 12-16, 2016 Q1-Q6 RELEASED SEPARATELY Q7. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTEREED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Jan16a % % % % % A lot 51 59 48 47 44 Some 34 29 36 36 35 Not much 10 8 10 11 15 No attention so far 5 5 6 5 5 Don't know/no answer * * 1 * * *Less than 0.5% Prim. Have you already voted in or do you plan to vote in a Republican primary or caucus this year, or in a Democratic primary or caucus, or are you not voting in a primary or caucus at all this year? Jan16a^ Republican primary 33 76 3 25 37 Democratic primary 34 3 76 21 37 Not likely to vote 21 16 15 32 17 Never vote (Vol.) 1 1 * 1 * Don't know/no answer 11 5 6 21 9 *Less than 0.5% ^Wording change: Next year, are you more likely to vote Q8. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Jan16a % % Donald Trump 35 36 Ted Cruz 18 19 Marco Rubio 12 12 John Kasich 11 2 Ben Carson 6 6 Jeb Bush 4 6 Someone Else (Vol.) 1 11 None of them (Vol.) 5 1 Don't know/no answer 8 7
Q9. Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CHOICE Jan16a % % Mind made up 46 35 Too early 53 64 Don't know/no answer * 1 *Less than 0.5% Q10. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you think has the best chance of winning the general election in November? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Oct15d^ % % Donald Trump 53 41 Ted Cruz 18 3 Marco Rubio 12 8 John Kasich 4 1 Jeb Bush 3 10 Ben Carson 1 21 Someone Else (Vol.) * 7 None of them (Vol.) 1 1 Don't know/no answer 7 9 *Less than 0.5% ^Wording change: In November 2016. Q11. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these candidates do you think is most likely to get things done in Washington? Donald Trump 43 Ted Cruz 16 Marco Rubio 13 John Kasich 10 Jeb Bush 5 Ben Carson 4 Someone Else (Vol.) * None of them (Vol.) 4 Don't know/no answer 6 *Less than 0.5%
Q12. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you trust most to appoint justices to the U.S. Supreme Court?^ * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % Donald Trump 25 Ted Cruz 25 Ben Carson 12 Marco Rubio 12 John Kasich 10 Jeb Bush 9 Someone Else (Vol.) * None of them 1 Don't know/no answer 6 ^Partial sample of 257 Republican Primary voters interviewed 2/14-2/16/2016 *Less than 0.5% Q13. If Donald Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Jan16a % Enthusiastically support 35 40 Support with reservations 28 31 Support only because nominee 14 9 Not support him 20 18 Don't know/no answer 3 2 Q14. If Ted Cruz became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Enthusiastically support 32 37 Support with reservations 26 25 Support only because nominee 20 18 Not support him 18 16 Don't know/no answer 4 5 Q15. If Marco Rubio became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Enthusiastically support 31 32 Support with reservations 27 31 Support only because nominee 22 18 Not support him 17 12 Don't know/no answer 4 7
Q16.-Q22 RELEASED SEPARATELY Q23. Would you prefer the next president be someone who will try to work within the political system in Washington or someone who will try to shake up the political system in Washington? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** PRIMARY VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Rep Vtrs Dem Vtrs % % % % % % Working within the political system 34 26 49 28 24 45 Shake up the political system 59 67 47 64 70 52 Don't know/no answer 6 7 5 7 6 3 Q24. Which one of these candidate qualities is most important to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % Shares my values 42 Says what they believe 28 Has the right experience 15 Can win in November 12 Don't know/no answer 3 Q25. From what you ve heard or read, generally, would you describe Donald Trump s policy proposals as realistic or not realistic? Realistic 44 Not realistic 50 Don't know/no answer 6 Q26. Do you think Donald Trump shares your values, or not? Jan16a % Yes 50 59 No 44 35 Don't know/no answer 6 6 Q27. From what you know so far, do you think Donald Trump is prepared for the job of President, or not? Is prepared 51 Is not prepared 44 Don't know/no answer 5
Q28. From what you ve heard or read, generally, would you describe Ted Cruz s policy proposals as realistic or not realistic? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % Realistic 57 Not realistic 33 Don't know/no answer 10 Q29. Do you think Ted Cruz shares your values, or not? Jan16a % Yes 56 63 No 35 24 Don't know/no answer 9 13 Q30. From what you know so far, do you think Ted Cruz is prepared for the job of President, or not? Is prepared 57 Is not prepared 36 Don't know/no answer 7 Q31. From what you ve heard or read, generally, would you describe Marco Rubio s policy proposals as realistic or not realistic? Realistic 58 Not realistic 31 Don't know/no answer 11 Q32. Do you think Marco Rubio shares your values, or not? Yes 56 59 No 34 27 Don't know/no answer 10 14 Q33. From what you know so far, do you think Marco Rubio is prepared for the job of President, or not? Is prepared 42 Is not prepared 48 Don't know/no answer 10
Q34. How confident are you in Donald Trump s ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Dec15a % % Very confident 49 51 Somewhat confident 28 31 Not too confident 9 8 Not at all confident 13 10 Don't know/no answer 1 * Q35. How confident are you in Donald Trump's ability to handle an international crisis--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Oct15a Very confident 29 23 Somewhat confident 29 39 Not too confident 19 18 Not at all confident 21 20 Don't know/no answer 2 1 Q36. How confident are you in Ted Cruz s ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Dec15a Very confident 21 26 Somewhat confident 47 44 Not too confident 16 14 Not at all confident 13 9 Don't know/no answer 4 8 Q37. How confident are you in Ted Cruz s ability to handle an international crisis are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 24 Somewhat confident 38 Not too confident 20 Not at all confident 14 Don't know/no answer 4
Q38. How confident are you in Marco Rubio s ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Dec15a % % Very confident 17 16 Somewhat confident 43 44 Not too confident 23 18 Not at all confident 12 11 Don't know/no answer 5 12 Q39. How confident are you in Marco Rubio s ability to handle an international crisis are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 17 Somewhat confident 39 Not too confident 24 Not at all confident 16 Don't know/no answer 4 Unweighted Total Respondents 2,007 Weighted Total Registered Voters 1,674 1,601 Total Republican Primary Voters 581 523