THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline COPYRIGHT 2010 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. Release #2337 Release Date and Time: 6:00 a.m., Friday, June 4, 2010 WHITMAN LEADING POIZNER TWO TO ONE IN THE FINAL DAYS LEADING UP TO NEXT TUESDAY S GOP GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY ELECTION. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) In the final days leading up to the June 8 California GOP gubernatorial primary election, former e- Bay chief executive Meg Whitman is holding a two-to-one lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in this year s historically expensive and bitter primary battle. In its final pre-election survey, The Field Poll finds Whitman leading Poizner by a 51% to 25% margin. Another 6% prefer other candidates, while 18% are undecided. The poll was conducted May 27-June 2 among 511 voters who had either already cast a mail ballot or are considered likely to vote in this year s Republican gubernatorial primary. Whitman s current 26-point Whitman lead represents a near halving of the whopping 49-point lead she held over Poizner in the last Field Poll survey conducted in March. Table 1 Trend of voter preferences in the 2010 Republican primary for California governor (among likely voters in the GOP primary) Early June March January Meg Whitman 51% 63% 45% Steve Poizner 25 14 17 Other 6 N/A N/A Undecided 18 23 38 N/A: Not asked. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Employer
Friday, June 4, 2010 Page 2 Record amounts of campaign spending According to published reports, Whitman and Poizner combined have spent in excess of $110 million to become this year s Republican gubernatorial nominee -- by far the most money ever spent in a partisan primary election in California history. Whitman s primary campaign expenditures alone have totaled about $81 million, with Poizner s spending at about $29 million. These huge outlays have come primarily from each candidate s own personal wealth and are occurring even before the start of the general election campaign. Few sub-group differences in voter preferences One of the more remarkable aspects to this year s primary election is the virtual absence of large differences in voting preferences across subgroups of the GOP primary electorate. For example, among the 51% majority of GOP primary election voters who identify themselves as being strongly conservative, Whitman leads Poizner 52% to 26%. This is not much different than her 49% to 25% lead among other GOP primary voters who identify themselves as either moderately conservative, middle-of-the-road or liberal in politics. In this survey 38% of the GOP primary electorate say they identify a lot with the growing populist Tea Party movement. Among this segment of voters Whitman holds a thirty-point lead, only marginally greater than the twenty-three point lead she holds among those who do not identify a lot with the Tea Party movement. Among GOP primary voters in other subgroups, such as gender, age, area and region of residence and whether a voter is a born-again Christian or not, Whitman leads Poizner by double-digit margins, and in most cases by more than twenty points. In addition, 51% of Republican primary voters who have either already voted or intend to vote by mail are now supporting Whitman. This is very similar to the 50% support Whitman receives among likely GOP primary voters intending to vote next Tuesday at their local voting precincts.
Friday, June 4, 2010 Page 3 Table 2 Preferences of likely GOP primary voters for governor of California - by subgroup Other/ Whitman Poizner Undecided Total likely voters 51% 25 24 Political ideology (.51) Strongly conservative 52% 26 22 (.49) All others 49% 25 26 Tea Party movement identification (.38) Identify a lot 55% 25 20 (.62) All others 48% 25 27 Area (.63) Coastal counties 49% 28 23 (.37) Inland counties 53% 21 26 Region (.18) Los Angeles County 47% 28 25 (.41) Other Southern California 52% 22 26 (.20) Central Valley 55% 22 23 (.21) San Francisco Bay Area/Other North 48% 33 19 Age (.21) 18 39 48% 27 25 (.21) 40 49 51% 26 23 (.31) 50 64 52% 27 21 (.27) 65 or older 51% 22 27 Gender (.52) Male 51% 27 22 (.48) Female 50% 24 26 Born-again Christian (.39) Yes 51% 25 24 (.61) No 50% 26 24 Voting method (.53) Mail ballot voters 51% 25 24 (.47) Precinct voters 50% 25 25 * Small sample size
Friday, June 4, 2010 Page 4 How GOP voter images of Whitman and Poizner have evolved during the campaign When The Field Poll made its first sampling of GOP voter opinions about the two Republican gubernatorial candidates in October of last year six in ten voters had no opinion of either candidate. This did not change much in the Poll s second reading in January, as about six in ten GOP voters continued to have no opinion of either candidate. However, opinions changed in a March Field Poll after an initial and very intensive barrage of primarily Whitman advertising. In that survey the proportion of Republican primary voters who had a positive impression of Whitman rose to 56%, while just 16% held an unfavorable opinion. By contrast, Poizner was viewed at the time in a more negative light, with 34% holding an unfavorable view and 20% having a favorable impression. The current survey finds that the proportion holding a favorable view of the former e-bay chief executive has expanded further to 62%, although GOP primary voters holding an unfavorable opinion (24%) have also increased. Just 14% of Republican voters now have no opinion of Whitman. Poizner s image has also improved over the past two months as his own campaign advertising has become more prominent. Twice as many Republican voters (40%) currently have a favorable impression of Poizner as felt this way in March (20%). Nevertheless, a significant proportion of GOP primary voters (39%) continues to view the state Insurance Commissioner in a negative light. Another 21% have no opinion of Poizner. Table 3 Trend of likely GOP voter image ratings of the Republican gubernatorial candidates Early June 2010 March 2010 January 2010 October 2009 Whitman Favorable 62% 56% 34% 29% Unfavorable 24 16 8 10 No opinion 14 28 58 61 Poizner Favorable 40% 20% 18% 24% Unfavorable 39 34 19 16 No opinion 21 46 63 60
Friday, June 4, 2010 Page 5 Views of GOP voters about the upcoming general election for governor Attorney General Jerry Brown faces no significant opposition in his bid to secure this year s Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The current survey asked Republican voters which of the two GOP challengers, Whitman or Poizner, they felt had a better chance of defeating Brown in the November general election. Views about this are very one-sided, with 61% of GOP primary voters believing Whitman has the better chance and just 21% thinking Poizner does. Opinions about this are closely tied to a voter s primary election preferences. Among Whitman supporters there is a nearly unanimous view (92% to 1%) that she has a better chance of defeating Brown in November than Poizner. On the other hand, voters favoring Poizner think he has a better chance against Brown by a 61% to 25% margin. Among undecided voters or those favoring other candidates more think Whitman rather than Poizner has the better chance of defeating Brown 36% to 20%, although 44% are not sure. Table 4 Which Republican candidate for governor has the better chance of defeating likely Democratic nominee Jerry Brown in the November general election (among likely GOP primary voters) Total likely voters Whitman supporters Poizner supporters Other/ undecided Meg Whitman 61% 92% 25% 36% Steve Poizner 21 1 61 20 Don t know 18 7 14 44 30
Friday, June 4, 2010 Page 6 Information About The Survey Sample Details The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed May 27 June 2, 2010 among a random sample of 511 likely voters in California s 2010 Republican primary election. The sample included registered Republicans and non-partisan voters who had either already cast a mail ballot or were considered likely to vote in this year s Republican primary election. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research s central location telephone interviewing facilities. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. The sample was developed from a statewide list of registered Republican and non-partisan voters in California by Voter Contact Services, a leading provider of registered voter samples to the survey research industry. Interviewing was completed on either a voter s landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing the overall sample of registered Republicans was weighted to align it to known characteristics of the GOP registered voter population in California by region, age, gender and by whether or not the voter was a permanent mail ballot registrant. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error estimates for results based on likely voters in the GOP primary election is +/- 4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. Findings from subgroups of the overall sample have somewhat larger sampling error levels. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other sources of error. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field and has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The poll receives annual funding from television and newspaper subscribers who broadcast and publish the results from each Field Poll press release, from leading California academic institutions, who receive and archive the data files of each Field Poll survey after its completion, as well as a number of the state s major foundations and philanthropies. Questions Asked (IF ALREADY VOTED) In the Republican primary election for Governor, for whom did you vote (READ NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES IN RANDOM ORDER), or someone else? (IF PLANNING TO VOTE) If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote (READ NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES IN RANDOM ORDER), or someone else? (IF UNDECIDED) If you had to choose between Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner for governor, whom would you prefer? (THE FOLLOWING TWO QUESTIONS WERE READ IN RANDOM ORDER) Is your opinion of Meg Whitman, businesswoman, favorable or unfavorable? Is your opinion of Steve Poizner, businessman, favorable or unfavorable? The likely Democratic nominee for Governor will be former Governor and current state Attorney General Jerry Brown. Which Republican candidate for Governor Meg Whitman or Steve Poizner do you think has a better chance of defeating Democrat Jerry Brown in the November general election for Governor Whitman or Poizner?