COLOMBIA S TRANSFORMATION AND STATE OF THE PEACE PROCESS By Nicolás Lloreda-Ricaurte Ambassador of Colombia Retired Heads of Mission Association (RHOMA), Feb. 15th 2017 http://www.lawg.org/ourpublications/76/1635 www.diarioelquindio.com.co 1
1. COLOMBIA AT A GLANCE WHAT A DIFFERENCE 50 YEARS MAKE 1964 2015 Population 17 million (38% urban) 48 747.708 (76% urban) Life expectancy at birth (years) 59 74 Infant mortality rate (per 1.000) 82,6 19.1 Poverty* 62% 27,8% Extreme Poverty* 32.3% 7.9% GDP per capita (USD) 720 13.800 Unemployment rate 21% 9.2% Gini coefficient 0.7 0.55 Health coverage (% of population) 15% 97% Literacy rate 62% 98,7% (High quality accredited) Universities 19 48 Number of higher education degrees awarded Connectivity 1.559.065 (1960-2000) 4 land line subscriptions per 100 people** 3.010.882 (2001-2014) 59.1 % people have Internet access Source: Compilation based on Central Bank, CEPAL, DANE, World Bank 2
CONSOLIDATION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS Source: National Planning Department (DNP) 3
EVOLUTION OF THE ECONOMY TRADITIONAL EXPORTS 1964 Coffee Coal Oil / Petroleum oils Nickel Sugar 0,7% Banana 1,5% Gas olis 0,5% Vinyl chloride 0,6% Insecticides, rodenticides 0,7% Confectionery 0.8% Propylene; 0,8% Medications 0,9% Ferronickel 1,2% Flowers 2,5% EXPORTS SHARE BY PRODUCT 2014 Tourist cars 0,5% Gold 2,9% Others; 17,2% Share by product (%) Oil; 47,0% Coffee 4,5% Petroleum oils 5,2% Coal; 12,4% 4
EVOLUTION OF THE ECONOMY COLOMBIA S FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS Pacific Alliance El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras CAN CARICOM MERCOSUR EFTA Chile Costa Rica Mexico Canada U.S. Venezuela Nicaragua Cuba European Union South Korea Israel Panama 5
1. COLOMBIA AT A GLANCE THE COLOMBIAN PARADOX (1960-2010): A GROWING ECONOMY AMIDST AN ESCALATING CONFLICT Source: World Bank and National Centre of Historical Memory 6
THE ECONOMIST S COUNTRY OF THE YEAR 2016 OUR PICK IS COLOMBIA, FOR MAKING PEACE IN 2016. THIS WAS A COLOSSAL ACHIEVEMENT The Economist, December 24th 2016 edition 7
IMPACT OF THE ARMED CONFLICT IN COLOMBIA Deaths due to the conflict (2010-2016) 220,000 deaths. 81,5% civilians 25,007 missing persons 1,754 victims of sexual violence 6,421 children and adolescents recruited 5,700,000 displaced people (15% of the population) Civilians Armed Forces FARC 27,023 kidnappings 10,189 victims of anti-personnel mines Source: Conflict Analysis Resource Center CERAC 8
THE COST OF WAR Source: Own elaboration, compilation based on Ministry of Defense 9
30 YEARS OF ATTEMPTS 10
PEACE NEGOCIATIONS WITH FARC 11
OCTOBER 2nd 2016: PEACE AGREEMENT NARROWLY REJECTED IN A PLEBISCITE (0,5%) Source: BBC.com 12
THE GOVERNMENT SAT DOWN WITH THE OPPOSITION Opportunity to achieve unity among Colombians 3 main actors: Government, leaders of the NO vote, FARC Ceasefire was maintained, monitored by the UN Government held talks to all the leaders of the NO vote, made a list of their demands and presented it to FARC. Source: Picture taken from BBC 13
GOVERNMENT AND FARC REACHED A NEW AGREEMENT ON NOVEMBER 28th 2016 Special Jurisdiction for Peace. FARC will submit a list of assets for reparation. Foreign nationals are excluded from being judges. Court will decide on a case-by-case basis if drug-trafficking was part of political crime. Gender approach language was clarified. 16 transitional seats at Congress not for FARC but for winners of local elections. 14
NEW AGREEMENT - NEW TIMELINE 15
DEMOBILIZATION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE AT TEMPORARY RURAL ZONES (TRZ) Rural Zone (23) (Several camps) Concentration Point (8) (only one camp) Source: www.presidencia.gov.co 16
THE LAST MARCH 94% of FARC members are already at the Temporary Rural Zones Sergio Jaramillo, High Commissioner for Peace Feb. 6th 2017 Source: www.presidencia.gov.co 17
CANADA S LONG-STANDING COOPERATION WITH COLOMBIA Canada established diplomatic relations with Colombia in 1953. Strong ties in trade, investment, dialogue on human rights, cooperation for development, support of justice system, peacebuilding and security. Over 40 years of development cooperation in topics such as: human rights, children and youth, gender topics and sustainable economic growth with emphasis on rural issues. Canada supports peace building efforts in Colombia through OAS MAPP with CAD 10,7 millions since 2005. 18
CANADA S SUPPORT FOR PEACE BUILDING CAN $ 57.4 million for 5 projects to support peacebuilding efforts targeting women and youth. CAN $ 21 million for 6 projects focusing on peacebuilding and implementing the peace accord. CAN $20 million contribution to the UN Multi- Partner Trust Fund for Post-Conflict in Colombia over 3 years (2016-2019). The House Foreign Affairs Committee visited Colombia to discuss with high ranking officials the many challenges and opportunities arising from the peace process. Ongoing initiative for a possible participation of RCMP members in a Peace Support mission in Colombia. 19
PEACE TALKS WITH ELN (National Liberation Army) Feb. 7th 2017: Peace dialogues formally started in neighbouring Ecuador, following the release of Congressman Odín Sánchez, kept hostage since April 2016. Source: SIG 20
A SIX-POINT AGENDA WITH ELN 1. Participation of civil society in peacebuilding process 2. Democracy for peace 3.Transformations for peace 4. Victims 5.End of the armed conflict 6. Implementation 21
3. WHAT LIES AHEAD THREATS TO PUBLIC SAFETY: OTHER CRIMINAL GROUPS READY TO JUMP IN Other violent actors (e.g. organized crime, criminal bands, common delinquency groups, ELN) may want to take over the territories, drug trafficking routes and criminal activities left by the FARC. Authorities will need to deepen efforts to tackle crime and violence as more threats to citizen security may be emerging, despite figures showing a decrease in homicide rate: Source: www.mindefensa.gov.co 22
3. WHAT LIES AHEAD INCREASE IN ILLICIT CROPS Illicit crops have increased lately, despite efforts to dismantle cocaine laboratories and neutralize trafficking routes: Source: UN Office on Drugs and crime (Report on Colombia, July 2016). 23
3. WHAT LIES AHEAD DOMESTIC POLICIES IN ORDER TO ADDRESS CHALLENGES Former Police Commander in Chief and peace negotiator General Oscar Naranjo has just been appointed Vice-President and mandated to lead the public safety agenda. Jan-2017: A New Code of Police and Coexistence empowering the National Police replaced the one in force since 1970. As rural conflict will probably decrease while urban crime will tend to increase, the size of the army will probably shrink whereas that of the police will grow. Source: www.policianacional.gov.co 24
3. WHAT LIES AHEAD DOMESTIC POLICIES IN ORDER TO ADDRESS CHALLENGES Main cities have designed specific strategies and policies to tackle felonies most offending the person, crimes against property and domestic violence: Bogotá (8 million inhabitants): In Sept - 2016, a Citizen Security Office was enacted. Medellín (nearly 2,5 million): Current Mayor Federico Gutierrez has made citizen security one his priorities to the extent of leading operations himself. Barranquilla (nearly 1,8 million): The Mayor s Office works closely with the people Source: www.policianacional.gov.co 25
THANK YOU MERCI 26