THE INDEPENDENT l\nd hlonf'af:jtis/\n SUHVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABUSHUJ IN 194/' /\~) THE CALIFORNIA POLL f3y' MERVIN HELD 550 Kearny Street, Suite9()(j San Franci~:;co, GIl, [)41 DB-?')?! (415) 781-492 1 FlAX: (/~1!)),j:ll'~'A' COPYRIGHT 1995 By THE FIELD INsTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION By SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release Release Date: Thursday, May 25,1995 DOLE CONTINUES ~O HOLD EARLY IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is GOP LEAD FOR PRESIDENT. WILSON subject to revocation if publication or A DISTANT SECOND. broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field (ISSN 0195-4520) Kansas Senator Robert Dole, with a preference total of37%, continues to outdistance a large field of announced and prospective Republican candidates in next year's California GOP Presidential primary. Governor Pete Wilson is a distant second with 17%, followed by Texas Senator Phil Gramm at 9%. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, about whom there is increasing speculation in Washington political circles that he might become a candidate, is in third place at 5%. Seven other possible Republican contenders trail the field: TV evangelist Pat Robertson (4%), TV commentator Pat Buchanan (3%), former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander (2%), Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter (2%), Indiana Senator Richard Lugar (1 %), former State Department official Alan Keyes (1 %) and California Congressman Robert Dornan (1 %). Another 18% of rank-and-file Republicans are unable to offer a preference at this time. These are the findings from a FieldPoll survey conducted May 16-22 among a representative statewide sample of registered Republicans. Effect of a Powell candidacy Ever since Colin Powell stepped down as the Chairman ofthe Joint Chiefs of Stafflast year, there has been much speculation that he may run for the Presidency in 1996. If Powell did decide to run, the question is whether he would run for the Republican nomination or launch an independent third party bid for the Presidency. When Powell's name is included in the list ofrepublican candidates he captures 13% of the vote, placing him third behind Dole and Wilson. The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues, The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissernination of its survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academic, governrnent, media, and private sources.
Thursday, May 25,1995 Page 2 Inclination to support each potential GOP candidate Rank-and-file registered Republicans were asked whether they were inclined or disinclined to vote for each ofthe twelve possible Presidential candidates. Two out of three Republicans (66%) say they would be inclined to support Dole for the nomination, while 23% are disinclined. Powell also receives a heavy inclination to support proportion (52%), while 29% would not be inclined. For both Dole and Powell the proportions of voters inclined or disinclined to vote for them are not much different than those found in last February's Field Poll survey. However, in the case ofwilson the proportion ofcalifornia Republicans inclined to vote for him dropped from 54% in t~e February survey to 38% now. Conversely, those Republicans who say they are not inclined to support Wilson as the GOP nominee has increased from 40% to 55% in the last three months. Table 1 Inclination to support each of twelve possible Republican Presidential candidates in 1996 California GOP Primary (among registered Republicans) Not No Inclined inclined opinion Dole May 66% 23 11 Feb 67% 21 12 Powell May 52% 29 19 Feb 53% 26 21 Gingrich May 39% 48 13 Feb NA NA NA Wilson May 38% 55 7 Feb 54% 40 6 Gramm May 36% 36 28 Feb 35% 27 38 Doman May 22% 48 30 Feb 17% 45 38 Buchanan May 21% 63 16 Feb 18% 66 16 Specter May 14% 36 50 Feb 8% 37 50 Lugar May 14% 33 53 Feb 6% 30 60 Robertson May 12% 81 7 Feb NA NA NA Alexander May 10% 40 50 Feb 9% 32 59 Keyes May 6% 40 54 NA: Not asked in February survey Feb NA NA NA
Thursday. May 25,1995 Page 3 Dole leads in GOP preferences Dole continues to hold a comfortable lead over the field of possible Republican candidates whether or not Powell is included on the list. Table 2 Presidential preferences in March 1996 GOP California Primary (among registered Republicans) Without Powell listed With Powell listed May Feb May Feb. Dole 37% 48% 32% 37% Wilson 17 22 14 19 Powell 13 15 Gramm 9 11 8 10 Gingrich 5 NA 5 NA Robertson 4 NA 4 NA Buchanan 3 2 3 2 Alexander 2 3 2 3 Specter 2 1 1 1 Dornan 1 1 1 1 Lugar 1 * 1 * Keyes 1 NA 1 NA 18 12 15 12 NA: Not asked in February survey * less than 1/2 of 1% California's large bloc of GOP delegates California will send 163 delegates to the Republican convention next year. This number is larger than any other state's delegation and it represents about 9% of the total, or about 18% of all delegates needed to win the nomination. They will be selected in next year's winner-take-all'primary election which has been moved from early June date to March 26.
Thursday, May 25,1995 GOP candidates V8. Clinton In this survey each ofthe GOP candidates was paired against Clinton in a series of simulations ofpossible general election major party match-ups. Page 4 Dole bests Clinton 47% to 42% among a cross section of all voters statewide. When Powell is listed as the GOP candidate, Clinton trails by an even larger margin, 49% to 37%. The plurality that Powell achieves in this test ofstrength against Clinton is larger now than what it was last February, whereas Dole's lead has not changed. Powell currently holds a 12 point advantage over Clinton among all registered voters, up from 8 points found in the February survey. Dole's,lead stands at 5 points, similar to his February margin. Clinton's current lead over Wilson (49% to 39%) is larger than it was in February (48% to 45%). Clinton runs ahead of Gramm by 16 points (48% - 32%), whereas earlier the President's margin was just ten points, 48% to 38%. The President also runs ahead ofgingrich, 54% to 35%. Table 3 1996 General Election two-way pairings for President (among all registered voters) May Feb. 1995 1995 Dole 47% 49% Clinton 42 44 11 7 Clinton 49% 48% Wilson 39 45 12 7 Powell 49% 48% Clinton 37 40 14 12 Clinton 48% 48% Gramm 32 38 20 14 Clinton 54% NA Gingrich 35 NA 11 NA NA: Not asked in February survey
Thursday, May 25, 1995 Page 5 Three-way contests In the 1992 Presidential election, Texas industrialist Ross Perot campaigned as an independent candidate and received a significant portion ofthe California vote - 21%. Perot has continued to speak: up on a variety ofissues and the organization he founded for his 1992 campaign, United We Stand, is still active. Perot has not said definitively whether he will or will not run again as an independent Presidential candidate next year. However, most ofthe current speculation about a possible third party Presidential candidacy centers around Powell. Voters in this survey were asked to choose among a number ofthree candidate possibilities in a general election race. In one series Powell was listed as the independent candidate and in another matched series Perot was the third candidate. The findings show that Powell runs stronger than does Perot as a third party candidate. Powell polls from 26% to 35% in three simulations where Clinton is the Democratic candidate and either Dole, Wilson or Gramm is the GOP nominee. Perot achieves preference totals ranging from 13% to 23% against Clinton as the Democratic candidate and either Dole, Wilson or Gramm as the Republican nominee. Table 4 1996 General Election three-way candidate simulations for President - including Powell as Independent (among all registered voters) Dole, Republican Powell, Independent Powell, Independent Wilson, Republican Powell, Independent Gramm, Republican 35% 31 26 8 33% 32 28 7 36% 35 20 9
The Field Poll Thursday, May 25,1995 Page 6 Table 5 1996 General Election three-way simulations for President - including Perot as Independent (among all registered voters) Dole, Republican Perot, Independent Wilson, Republican Perot, Independent 40% 37 13 9 40% 31 21 8. Gramm, Republican Perot, Independent Weak inclination to re-elect Clinton 43% 23 23 11 At this point it appears that Clinton will not have to face a vigorous challenge from any other prominent Democrat for his party's nomination. Thus, he may be spared the effort required to beat back a threat to his nomination as was the case in 1980 when President Jimmy Carter had to fend offthe candidacy ofdemocratic Senator Edward Kennedy during that year's primary season. Nevertheless, there is a relatively high disposition among many voters, including significant portions ofdemocrats, who are disinclined to see Clinton serve another term.
The public's disinclination to re-elect Clinton is similar to the assessment California voters had of incumbent Republican George Bush in early 1992 during his losing re-election campaign. In 1984 incumbent Republican President Ronald Reagan was re-elected by a landslide statewide and nationally. However, in June 1983 more California voters at that time were disinclined than inclined to re-elect him. Table 7 Inclination to re-elect Bush, Reagan to a second term (among registered voters) Not No Inclined inclined opinion Bush May 1992 37% 58 5 Jan 1992 38% 51 11 Sept 1991 54% 35 11 Feb 1991 58% 28 14 Reagan June 1983 42% 45 13-30
Thursday, May 25, 1995 Sample Details Information About the Survey The results in this report are based on a survey conducted May 16-22, 1995 among a representative statewide sample of744 registered voters, including 342 Democrats, 312 Republicans and 90 others. The survey was completed by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods. Page 8 In order to cover a broad range ofissues and still minimize possible respondent fatigue, the overall sample was divided into two equal sized subsamples of373 and 371 voters each on the general election trial heat questions. Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory, 95% ofthe time results from the total voter sample would be accurate within +/- 3.8 percentage points, results from the Republioan voter sample would be accurate within +/- 5.7 percentage points, while general election trial heat results would be accurate within +/- 5.2 points. There are many possible sources oferror in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because ofdifferences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors or omission in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to minimize such errors. Questions Asked (ALL REGISTERED VOTERS) There will be a Presidential election in 1996. IfPresident Bill Clinton decides to run for re-election and the election were being held today, would you be inclined to vote for him or not? (REGISTERED REPUBLICANS ONLY) Next, I am going to read the names ofsome people who may run for President on the Republican Party ticket next year. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would be inclined or not inclined to vote for that person for next year's Republican Presidential nomination, or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. You may name as many or as few people as you want as being persons you would be inclined to vote for. Here is the first name. Would you be inclined or not inclined to vote for (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES READ) to be the 1996 Republican Presidential nominee? (ORDER OF NAMES WAS RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) (IF INCLINED TO VOTE FOR MORE THAN ONE PERSON) Let's see, you told me that you would be inclined to vote for (NAMES READ BACK). Ofthese persons, who would be your first choice? (IF FIRST CHOICE GIVEN) Who would be your second choice? (ALL REGISTERED VOTERS) Next I am going to read some possible general election match-ups for President in November 1996. For each pairing please tell me whom you would vote for ifthe election were being held today. What ifthe choices were... (SEE RELEASE FOR PAIRINGS READ) - who would you prefer? Suppose that in the November 1996 Presidential election there were three candidates running - (SEE RELEASE FOR CANDIDATES READ). Ifthe election were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you prefer?