CONSENSUS FORECAST April 215 MYANMAR 2 CALENDAR 4 NOTES 6 PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 215 FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 215 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 215 NEXT EDITION 28 April 215 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior RICARD TORNÉ Senior OLGA COSCODAN CARL KELLY TERESA KERSTING DIRINA MANÇELLARI ANGELA BOUZANIS CECILIA SIMKIEVICH MIRIAM DOWD Editor
April 215 1 GDP variation in % 15 1 5 Asia (ex Japan) World -5 2 25 21 215 Outlook stable The government declared a state of emergency last month in the selfadministered Kokang region and, in early March, clashes flared up again between Burmese soldiers and the ethnic minority rebels known as the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Tensions intensified after a aircraft dropped a bomb on a field in Yunnan, a province in neighboring. The incident could have a negative impact on the relationship between and and might increase instability in the border area. In order to escape the fighting in Kokang, thousands of refugees have fled the country in recent weeks to and to other regions of. 2 Inflation in % 6 Uncertainty ahead of the 215 general elections and geopolitical tensions represent major challenges for going forward. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 8.% in 215 and 7.9% in 216. 4 Annual inflation rose from 6.2% in November to 7.1% in December. Panelists expect inflation to average 6.3% in 215 and 6.4% in 216. 2 Asia (ex Japan) -2 2 25 21 215 3 Current Account % of GDP 1 5-5 Asia (ex Japan) -1 2 25 21 215 Notes and sources Dirina Mançellari Annual Data 213 214 215 216 Real Sector Population (million) 51. 51.4 51.8 52.3 GDP per capita (USD) 1,113 1,232 1,319 1,477 GDP (USD bn) 56.8 63.4 68.4 77.2 GDP (MMK bn) 54,756 62,577 71,53 81,761 Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 8.3 7.9 8. 7.9 Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4. 4.3 4.2 4.2 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6-4.5-4.5-4.4 Public Debt (% of GDP) 39.8 43. 42. 42.3 Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.4 Discount Rate (%, eop) 1. 1. 1.26 11.1 Exchange Rate (MMK per USD, eop) 984 1,25 1,5 1,53 Exchange Rate (MMK per USD, aop) 934 98 1,38 1,51 External Sector Current Account (% of GDP) -5.4-5.1-5.2-5. Current Account (USD bn) -3.1-3.2-3.5-3.9 Trade Balance (USD bn) -1. -9.9-11.3-14.1 Exports (USD bn) 1.4 12.5 14.1 16. Imports (USD bn) 2.4 22.4 25.5 29.3 Exports (annual variation in %) 26.2 19.5 13.5 12.9 Imports (annual variation in %) 19.9 9.7 13.7 14.9 International Reserves (USD bn) 6. 6.9 8.1 8.7 International Reserves (months of imports) 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 External Debt (USD bn) 7.4 5.9 6. 7. External Debt (% of GDP) 13. 9.3 8.8 9. General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 216 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: IMF. 2 Inflation, annual average in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: IMF. 3 Current account balance, % of GDP. Source: IMF. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 2
Fact Sheet April 215 General Data Official name: Republic of the Union of Capital: Naypyidaw Area (km2): 676,578 Population (million, 214 est.): 51 Population density (per km2, 214): 76 Population growth rate (%, 214 est.): 1. Life expectancy (years, 214 est.): 65.9 Illiteracy rate (%, 211): 7.3 Language: Burmese, English Measures: Metric system Time: GMT+6.3 in the Region Population %-share in Asia 9.% Philippines 3.% Indonesia 7.6% India 37.8% 1.5% 41.1% Korea 6.3% India 12.6% GDP %-share in Asia Indonesia 5.1% 14.%.4% 61.7% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (213) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 1. Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 12.8 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 1.2 Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % 23-5 26-8 29-11 23-5 26-8 29-11 1 1 Energy (212) Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 281 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 1.5 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 7.8 Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.8 Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 27 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 13 8 6 4 Agriculture Manufacturing Industry 8 6 4 Net Exports Investment Government Consumption 2 Services 2 Private Consumption Transportation (213) Airports: 64 Roadways (km): 34,377 Chief Ports: Moulmein, Sittwe Trade Structure Primary markets share in % Political Data President: Thein Sein Last elections: 7 November 21 Next elections: November 215 Central Bank Governor: U Kyaw Kyaw Maung 14.3% 13.1% Exports Japan 7.4% Asia ex-japan 9.7% Singapore 8.6% 13.5% Japan 8.1% Imports Asia ex-japan 13.4% Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings India 14.8% Thailand 4.7% Thailand 2.% 36.4% Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: - - S&P: - - Fitch Ratings: - - 1.2% Primary products share in % 1.3% Strengths Abundant raw materials Considerable hydroelectric potential Proximity to dynamic economies (, India, Thailand).. Weaknesses High risk of ethnic tensions Poorly diversified economy Underdeveloped financial sector Lack of structural reform Agric. Raw Mat. 1.6% Food 19.6% Exports Mineral Fuels 38.5% Manufact. Products 3.% Mineral Fuels 22.4% Food 8.3% Imports Manufact. Products 67.9% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 3
Economic Release Calendar Calendar April 215 Date Country Event 24 March March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 24 March Vietnam March Consumer Prices (**) 25 March Korea Q4 214 National Accounts 25 March Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**) 26 March Korea March Consumer Confidence 26 March Philippines Central Bank Meeting 28 March Vietnam Q1 215 National Accounts (**) 28 March Vietnam March Industrial Production (**) 3 March Korea April Business Confidence 31 March Hong Kong February Retail Sales 31 March Korea February Industrial Production 31 March New Zealand March Business Confidence 31 March Thailand February Manufacturing Production 31 March Thailand February Merchandise Trade 1 April March Manufacturing PMI 1 April Indonesia March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Indonesia March Consumer Prices 1 April Korea March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Korea March Consumer Prices 1 April Taiwan March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Vietnam March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Hong Kong March HSBC PMI 2 April India March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Malaysia March Consumer Prices 2 April Singapore March SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**) 2 April Thailand March Consumer Prices 3 April Malaysia Febuary Merchandise Trade 6 April India March HSBC Services PMI 7 April Australia February Retail Sales 7 April Australia Central Bank Meeting 7 April India Central Bank Meeting 7 April Philippines March Consumer Prices 7 April Singapore Q1 215 National Accounts (**) 8 April Philippines February Exports 8 April Taiwan March Merchandise Trade 8 April Taiwan March Consumer Prices 9 April Australia March Unemployment 9 April March Merchandise Trade (**) 9 April Korea Central Bank Meeting 1 April Australia April Consumer Confidence (**) 1 April March Consumer Prices 1 April March Producer Prices 1 April March New Yuan loans (**) FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 4
Economic Release Calendar Calendar April 215 Date Country Event 1 April March Money Supply (M2) (**) 1 April India February Industrial Production 1 April India March Consumer Prices 1 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production 1 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**) 14 April India March Wholesale Prices 14 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting 14 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**) 15 April Q1 215 National Accounts 15 April March Industrial Production 15 April March Retail Sales 15 April March Fixed Asset Investment 15 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade 15 April Philippines February OFW Remittances 17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**) 17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade 18 April March Property Prices 2 April Korea March Merchandise Trade 2 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**) 2 April New Zealand Q1 215 Consumer Prices 21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices 22 April Australia Q1 215 Consumer Prices 23 April April HSBC Manufacturing PMI 23 April Korea Q1 215 National Accounts (*) 23 April Singapore March Consumer Prices 23 April Taiwan March Industrial Production 24 April Korea April Consumer Confidence 24 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**) 25 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**) (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 5
April 215 Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: Asia (16 countries): Brunei, Cambodia,, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia,, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asia ex-japan (15 countries): Brunei, Cambodia,, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia,, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 1 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 215 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657 E-81 Barcelona Spain tel: +34 932 651 4 fax: +34 932 65 84 e-mail: info@focus-economics.com web: http://www.focus-economics.com DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 6
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,6 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASIA PACIFIC Brunei,, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia,, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & ); Switzerland MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden FocusEconomics Gran Via 657, 81, Barcelona, Spain +34 932 651 4 subscribers@focus-economics.com www.focus-economics.com