UKRAINE CONFLICT Made by William Ding & Daisy Zhu Colloquy Project 1
What is Ukraine conflict about? The Ukraine conflict is not only a conflict within the nation, but a conflict that involves many european countries, especially Russia, and even United States. It is, literally, the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the wars over the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. The Ukraine conflict began on 21 November 2013, when the pro-russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an agreement that would have integrated Ukraine's economy closer to the European Union, making it less dependent on Russia. Ukrainian former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych Colloquy Project 2
This decision resulted in mass protests by its proponents, known as the Euromaidan". After months of such protests, Yanukovych was ousted by the protesters on 22 February 2014, when he fled the Ukrainian capital city of Kiev. Following his ousting, unrest enveloped the largely Russophone eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, from where he had drawn most of his support. Colloquy Project 3
In February, Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine without any resistance. In March, Crimea voted in favour of a referendum on joining Russia one the West considered to be illegal and rigged in Russia's favour. Subsequently, unrest in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine evolved into a war between the post-revolutionary Ukrainian government and pro-russian insurgents. This led the Ukrainian government to launch a military counter-offensive against the insurgents, which resulted in the ongoing War in Donbass. From late 2014, cities outside of the Donbass combat zone, such as Kharkiv, Odessa, Kiev and Mariupol, were struck by bombings that targeted pro-ukrainian unity organizations. Colloquy Project 4
Two sides of the argument in Ukraine conflict Russia: During our analysis of Russia s argument in this scenario, we mainly look at 4 parts: argument(which I also call feigning argument in this case because Putin uses this justifiable argument for his hidden political interest), Putin s justification for its feigning argument, real political interests behind the argument, and preconditions that enable Russia to have such argument. Feigning Argument: Russia should help Ukraine out of its revolution (which was led by the pro-european citizens to overthrow pro-russian president Yanukovych.) Translation: Ukraine shouldn t form closer ties with the western world. Putin s Justification: 1. It will be a legitimate decision in full compliance with both general norms of international law, since we have the appeal of the legitimate President(Yanukovych), and with our commitments, which in this case coincide with our interests to protect the people with whom we have close historical, cultural and economic ties. (Putin) 2. What happened in Ukraine was an anticonstitutional takeover, an armed seizure of power, Russia should take the responsibility to support its neighbor. 3. Putin supported national sovereignty over humanitarian concerns. What Russia military did in Ukraine is a humanitarian mission 4. Though Russia has agreed in Budapest Memorandum to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Putin argued that if we consider what happened in Ukraine to be a revolution, a new state with which we have signed no binding agreements has been created. (Valerie Pacer) Colloquy Project 5
Political Interest: 1.To prevent Crimea, which is a pivotal military location near Black Sea, from following into the hands of the West. Also, because Russia has lots of military bases in Crimea, if pro-european protestors succeeds in takeover, Russia s legitimacy in Crimea will be put into jeopardy. 2. Avoid Ukraine from forming closer ties with the West to strengthen its power in post-soviet countries. 3. Possibly "Putin is playing hardball and he wants to restore as much of the Soviet Union as he can get away with. (Sergii Leshchenko) It can be inferred from Putin s actions in nearby Baltic states, down through Moldova, across to Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and on to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (USIP). Preconditions: 1. One third of Ukraine population is Russian. Also historically Ukraine was part of Soviet Union. Many Ukrainians especially those of Russian have close national ties with Russia. Therefore Russia has considerable support from Ukrainian pro-russian citizens. 2. Russia is Ukraine s mainly supplier of oil and natural gases. Its economic control in Ukraine enables it to intervene the issues in Ukraine. 3. Putin obtained public support from national fever, and was approved by the Federation Council to use Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine until the socio-political situation in that country is stabilized. Therefore, the stability inside Russia enables it to step into the affairs of Ukraine. 4. The west is dependable on Russia s actions in Libya and Iran. They can t take strong measures against Russia s actions in Ukraine. Colloquy Project 6
Ukraine: For the analysis of Ukraine side, we directly find its argument, rebuttal to Putin s justifications, the reasons to hold the argument, the actions it took to stand on its argument. Argument: Ukraine's determination to pursue its European dreams will not be denied. (Poroshenco, Ukraine president) Rebuttal to Putin s Justification: 1. Close ties to people are not a legal basis for military action and there is no reference to seeking a UN mandate in his statement. (Valerie Pacer) 2. Although the unconstitutional removal of Yanukovych might justify Putin s support of him, it does not, in itself, provide a rationale for Russia s military actions, especially in Crimea. (Valerie Pacer) 3. Russia s humanitarian mission in Ukraine has already caused at least 9098 death in Ukraine, including both civilians and soldiers by December 2015 according to UN statistics. Approximately 3 million Ukrainian citizens were affected. Does the consequences of Russia s actions justify its alleged humanitarian mission? 4. Given that the composition of parliament is still the same and that it was Yanukovych who left Ukraine, the situation can hardly justify sweeping away all treaties and agreements. (VP) Colloquy Project 7
Reasons: 1. Two major ethnic groups, Ukrainians and Russians, are in Ukraine. Ukrainians occupy two thirds of the population and are actually originally Polish. Tracing ancestry, those Ukrainians can find their root to Europe. 2. Joining EU can provide justification for NATO to be involved into the current issue. 3. EU membership has thrown a blanket of democratic stability, personal rights and the rule of law over what had been a region notorious for their absence. For most Ukrainians the deal with the EU is symbolic of national independence and democratic freedom. (The Guardian) Actions(taken by Ukraine and the West): 1. Ukraine suspended its treaty of free trade zone with Russia and imposed an embargo on Russian businesses. 2. US and European countries impose financial sanctions on Russia. 3. The United States delivers increasing levels of training and other military assistance and NATO continues to expand cooperation with Ukraine on defence reform (USIP) 3. US and European powers have delivered strong financial assistance to avert Ukraine s financial meltdown and accelerate its reform and anticorruption. Colloquy Project 8
Colloquy Project May 13, 2016 Solutions(mainly for international community) to mitigate or resolve the conflict Reform Deliver technical assistance on institutional reform and anticorruption. Corruption has been a scourge for Ukrainian leaders to lose public support. In order to construct an improving upright public image, Ukrainian government is supposed to accelerate its progress on institutional reform and anticorruption. By receiving the assistance from western countries which have ranked high on the list of International Transparency, Ukraine can facilitate its ongoing reforms and anticorruption to strengthen it public confidence. Financial Sustainability Supply strong financial and technical assistance to the Ukrainian government to avert a financial meltdown, such as offering trade incentives and backing small- and medium-sized enterprises Ukraine s economy has been clouded with a financial meltdown, since it claimed its European dream in spite of Russia s opposition. This is because Russia, Ukraine s main supplier of oil and natural gases, has elevated its price of oil and gases many times to pressure the current Ukraine government. Russia s incentives behind elevation of prices includes, but not limited to, hindering Ukraine s institutional reform and anticorruption, arising Ukraine fears of pro-european citizens, and flaunting its might in the face of western world. Providing financial support to Ukraine by offering trade opportunities and backing up small-and medium-sized private enterprises, western world is able to boost Ukraine s economic recovery and thus prevent Russia s hidden political agenda. Colloquy Project 9
Media support civil society organizations and independent media for public education, information, and media literacy; As a post-soviet country, Ukraine s population is a mixture of two ethnic groups, Ukrainians and Russians, with the former occupying 2/3 of the population. As a result, the national identity remains an ambiguity, especially during this tumultuous period. Russia can capitalize on that ambiguity with a steady injection of divisive propaganda. (Lauren Van Metre, Viola G. Gienger, and Kathleen Kuehnast) To counter the effect of Russia s propaganda and arise citizens consciousness of the current situation, international community and Ukraine can encourage civil society organizations and media for public education and media literacy. For example, when publicizing information, media can include criticism of rights violations in Russia. Response to Russia Military: supply advanced and accelerated military assistance to Ukraine to blunt externally provoked instability ; Since Ukraine is constantly harasses by Russia a military forces, it s necessary for international community to supply military assistance so that Ukraine can concentrate on its domestic reforms and anticorruption. Economy: maintain or increase international sanctions on Russia. International sanctions are able to cause a huge financial deficit in Russia. In this way, Putin may gradually lose support from Russian citizens because of the large financial strain. Colloquy Project 10
International organizations strengthen the role of relevant international support institutions, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). permeate its influence on Ukraine and Russia issues. Since the western countries depend on Russia on Iran and Syria issues, they can t directly oppose Russia in the issue of Ukraine. By the involvement of institutions such as OSCE, the west can indirect Colloquy Project 11