Mid September 2016 LucidTalk Bi-Monthly Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland) Results Issues: UK EU Referendum - Northern Ireland (NI) Post Referendum views, and a NI Border Poll? POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS - GENERAL REPORT 25th September 2016 CONTENTS LUCIDTALK MONTHLY TRACKERR POLLS - Introduction and Background... 2 Methodology:... 2 LucidTalk Professional Credentials... 2 REPORT, COMMENTARY, AND SUGGESTED COVERAGE - September 2016 Tracker Poll - KEY POINTS AND HEADLINES... 3 Subject Issue Date Author(s) Polling Projects 25 September Opinion Panel Poll-Project: Final Results 25th SEPTEMBER 2016 Bill White LucidTalk
LUCIDTALK MONTHLY TRACKER POLLS - Introduction and Background LucidTalk run scheduled regular 'Tracker' polls of their established Northern Ireland Opinion Panel - usually on a bimonthly basis (i.e. once every two months). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel (now 3,041 members) consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. The objective of these scheduled and regular 'Tracker' polls is to research opinion on key issues at key points in time + track changes in trends and opinions about key topics and issues on a bi-monthly basis. These key issues include, in the context of this poll, opinion related to the recent EU referendum on June 23rd, and attitudes to a NI Border poll. For this 'Tracker' poll-project our 3,041 member NI Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, 1,582 responses were received, and after data auditing to ensure: (a)'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a balanced representative NI sample, - 1,080 full responses were recorded and used for analysis in terms of the final results. Methodology: Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online for a period of 60 Hours from 11am 21st September to 11pm 23rd September 2016 (60 Hours). The project targeted the established Northern Ireland (NI) LucidTalk Opinion Panel (3,041 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. 1,582 full responses were received, and a data auditing process was carried out to ensure all completed poll-surveys were genuinee 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and also to collate a robust and accurate balanced NI representative sample. This resulted in 1,080 responses being considered in terms of the final results - the results presented in this report. All data results have been weighted by gender and community background to reflect the demographic composition of Northern Ireland resulting in 1,080 responses being considered in terms of the final results. All data results produced are accurate to a margin of error of +/-3.0%, at 95% confidence. All surveys and polls may be subject to sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting. NB In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. LucidTalk Professional Credentials LucidTalk is a member of all recognised professional Polling and Market Research organisations, including the UK Market Research Society (UK-MRS), the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC.
REPORT and COMMENTARY - September 2016 Tracker Poll - KEY POINTS AND HEADLINES The benefit of this regular scheduled polling is that it allows us to see changes in trends and opinions at regular intervals over time - we will be tracking these key issues regularly over 2016 to 2017. Key Headline Points - September 2016 Tracker Poll: THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE EU REFERENDUM IN TERMS OF HOW NI WOULD VOTE IF THE REFERENDUM WERE HELD AGAIN - THIS POLL PROJECT SHOWED THERE POSSIBLY WOULD BE A SMALL 1% SWING TO REMAIN. NB The last LucidTalk pre EU Referendum poll (one week before the actual referendum) predicted the NI EU Referendum result to within 1%. Question 1 (see below): SHOULD THERE BE A NI BORDER POLL? - A NARROW MAJORITY IS AGAINST THIS IDEA: Result being NO - 53%, YES - 39%, and DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 8%. This works out as: NO - 57.6%, YES - 42.4% (excluding Don't Knows). See below for full results and commentary. When we ask the same question based on there being a second Scottish independence referendum, and possibly Scotland remaining in the EU (Question 3 below) - SHOULD THERE THEN BE A NI BORDER POLL? - This produced a much closer result: Result being NO - 44%, YES - 39%, and DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 17% i.e. note the big jump in 'Undecideds' from 8% to 17% when the question was asked in the context of a second Scottish independence referendum*. This last polll result works out as: NO - 53%, YES - 47% (excluding Don't Knows). * This shows a similar pattern to the previous LucidTalk polling on this issue in September 2014 i.e. at the 'height' of the Scottish independence referendum campaign - when a majority (albeit small) of NI poll respondents said they would want a NI Border poll referendum. This shows the 'Scottish situation' impacts and affects NI Opinion on a border referendum. Question 2 (see below): IF THERE WAS A NI BORDER POLL - WHAT WAY WOULD YOU VOTE?: This produced a result of NI REMAIN IN UK - 61.1%, NI LEAVE UK - 27.8%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDEDD - 11.1%. This works out as: REMAIN - 68.7%, LEAVE - 31.3% (excluding Don't Knows). Again see Question 2 below for full results and commentary. When we ask the same question based on there being a second Scottish independence referendum, and possibly Scotland remaining in the EU (Question 4 below) - WHAT WAY WOULD YOU THEN VOTE IN A NI BORDER POLL? - This produced a result of: NI REMAIN IN UK - 56.5%, NI LEAVE UK - 30.4%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 13.1%. This works out as: REMAIN - 65%%, LEAVE - 35% (excluding Don't Knows).
Note the 5% drop in support for NI remaining in the UK, and 3% growth for NI leaving the UK, in the context of a second Scottish independence referendum, and possibly Scotland remaining in the EU. Question 5 (see below): BASED ON A BREXIT - WHAT DO YOU THINK OF NORTHERN IRELAND'S FUTURE, AND YOUR OWN PERSONAL, AND FAMILIES FUTURE, IN NORTHERN IRELAND? See below for full results and commentary.
Question 1: NI BORDER POLLL - SHOULD THERE BE ONE?: Protestants voted on this Question: YES - 14%, NO - 78%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 8%. Catholics voted on this Question: YES - 73%, NO - 16.2%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 10.8%. In terms of a residence area analysis: Just for a comparison, and to give a view of any geographical differences, we calculated how the Belfast/North Down area voted compared to West N. Ireland i.e. Mid Ulster/Fermanagh-South Tyrone/West Tyrone. West N. Ireland: YES - 41.5%, NO - 49.2%, DONT KNOW/UNDECIDED - 9.2% Belfast/North Down: YES - 44%, NO - 47.5%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 8.5% Remember this geographical analysis is cross community. This also shows that the other areas of N. Ireland - e.g. Laganvalley, Antrim etc. (i.e. more strongly Unionist areas) are more 'NO' to this question i.e. 'No' to a Border referendum
Question 2: IF THERE WAS A NI BORDER POLL - HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?: Protestants voted on this Question: REMAIN - 83%, LEAVE - 9.5%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 7.5%. Catholics voted on this Question: REMAIN - 13%, LEAVE - 78.4% %, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 8.6%. This result is in line with previous polls and indeed other polls carried out by other poll companies. As mentioned in a previous question it does show the slow steady growth of support for a United Ireland - at 28% this is up a few % points compared to our previous polling on this issue back in 2013. In terms of Age-Group here's how the 18-24 years Age-group voted on this question: The 18-24 Age-Group voted on this question: REMAIN - 57.1%, LEAVE - 40.5%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 2.4% %. Note that there is a 4% drop in the support for REMAIN (NI to remain in the UK) when we look at the 18-24 age-group only + the large jump in supporting LEAVE from 27% overall in the total poll, to 41% in the 18-24 years age group. This is significant as it shows the long-term trend of support for a United Ireland growing - growing slowly Yes, but this continuing growth, although small, has been consistently there in all our polls over the past 5-8 years - and is particularly pronounced in the younger age-groups.
Question 2: 18 to 24 years age-group only: Note the typical trend that when we analyse the younger age-groups - in this case the 18-24 age-group the pro-union 'NI Remain in the UK' support drops 4% from 61.1% to 57.1%, and support for a United Ireland rises from 27.8% to 40.5% (a big jump). It is also noticeable that the 'Don't Knows/Undecideds drop from 11.1% to 2.4%.
Question 3: NI BORDER POLLL - SHOULD THERE BE ONE (if a Brexit and a second Scottish independence referendum)?: Protestants voted on this Question: YES - 16%, NO - 69.5%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 4%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED (depends on Scottish referendum result) - 10.5% Catholics voted on this Question: YES - 78.4%, NO - 8.6%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 2.9%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED (depends on Scottish referendum result) - 10.1% Note that when the 'Scottish referendum situation' is introduced the No. of protestants who would then support a border poll goes up from 14% (i.e. the original base poll question - see above) to 16% - but more significantly the No. of Protestant 'Don't Knows/Undecideds' on the issue of whether or not there should be a border poll goes up from 8% to 14% showing that a section of protestants would be rethinking their views on a border poll dependent on how the Scottish political situation developed. In terms of Gender here's how the Males and Females voted on this question: Male: YES - 42.7%, NO - 47.4% %, Not Sure/Undecided - 2.8%, Not Sure/Undecided - My decision would be influenced by the Scottish Referendum result - 7..1% Female: YES - 37.2%, NO - 37..5%, Not Sure/Undecided - 5.8%, Not Sure/Undecided - My decision would be influenced by the Scottish Referendum result - 19.5%
Note the very large Not Sure/Undecided vote from females (25.3%) showing the normal trait that females are more risk averse than males and that females want/like to think about issues more, and in more detail, before making up their minds. NB The Protestant vs Catholic figures quoted above don't always translate evenly into the total results as those who described themselves as 'Other/No Religion' were excluded from the Protestant vs Catholic analyses. This applies to all questions were Protestant vs Catholic analyses are shown.
Question 4: IF THERE WAS A NI BORDER POLL - HOW WOULD YOU VOTE (if a Brexit and a second Scottish independence referendum)?: Protestants voted on this Question: REMAIN - 76%, LEAVE - 10%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 2.5%, DON'T KNOW/ UNDECIDED (depends on Scottish referendum result) - 11.5% Catholics voted on this Question: REMAIN - 10.1%, LEAVE - 79.1%, DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED - 3.6% %, DON'T KNOW/ UNDECIDED (depends on Scottish referendum result) - 7.2% The big factor here is the growth in the Protestant 'Don't Knows/Undecideds'- i.e. when compared to the base question on this issue (see above) which didn't ask for consideration of the 'Scottish political situation'. We can see that the Protestant % support for Remain (i.e. NI staying in the UK) drops from 83% to 76% when the 'Scottish political situation' is introduced, and most significantly the Protestant Don't Knows/Undecideds jumps from 7.5% to 14%. This was the main reason in asking a question of this nature - not to suggest that such a set of circumstances was likely to happen i.e. Scottish independence referendum, Scotland remaining in the EU, etc. - but to test would such a set of circumstances (albeit hypothetical) have any effect on the NI situation. The result from this poll question shows it would have some affect i.e. there would be a section of what would have been supporters of REMAIN (i.e. NI staying within the UK) who would move to 'Undecided' and have a rethink of their views - not a large No. but it could be a significant No. i.e. a No. that could noticeably affect the result of a Border referendum. 90% of these respondents (i.e. moving from REMAIN to Don't Know/Undecided) are from the Protestant community.
Question 5: ON A BREXIT - WHAT DO YOU THINK OF NORTHERN IRELAND'S FUTURE, AND YOUR OWN PERSONAL, AND FAMILIES FUTURE, IN NORTHERN IRELAND: Here we see that 55% of respondents think the future of NI under Brexit will be 'Not very positive' or 'Very Bad' - coincidentally this corresponds nearly exactly with the % that voted Remain in NI in the EU Referendum. People are a bit more hopeful about their own personal future with 40% 'Very Good' or 'Fairly good' in terms of their own, and families, future in NI - although on this same point, the same %(i.e. 40%) is either 'Not very positive' or 'Very Bad' in terms of their view of their own, or families future.