Crawford School, ANU Preparing for megadisasters lessons from the Asian tsunami Peter McCawley Visiting Fellow, Indonesia Project Arndt-Corden Economics Division, Crawford School, ANU pmccawley@gmail.com 11 May 2010
Outline: 1. Introduction three disasters 2. The Asian tsunami stages of response 3. Livelihood programs 4. Coordination problems 5. The long-term: when donors go home 6. Summary of lessons (Theme: issues of aid delivery)
Topic 1: Introduction three disasters (Main message: different disasters are very different)
Three views on the tsunami: Disaster disaster literature Aid project delivery of aid Human security risks for the poor Focus: on aid delivery but other views are relevant
We need to recall that The nature of megadisasters varies greatly (not just one animal!) And international responses to megadisasters vary greatly too There are big differences between (a) rich and poor countries, and (b) which disasters in poor countries the international community responds to (need is not the only criteria!) Take a sample of three
The tsunami (Hokusai s Great wave off Kanagawa )
Hurricane Katrina nearing the US coast
Myanmar s misery The Economist, 10-16 May 2008
Three recent megadisasters: Event Deaths Spending Asian tsunami Asia region Dec 2004 Comment US$ bill (Spending per death) 230,000 18 Conditions very favourable for local and international support ($76,000) Katrina US Aug 2005 1,900 Over 100 Very high levels of US funding; also some international support ($50,000,000) Cyclone Nargis Myanmar May 2008 130,000 0.3 Myanmar govt isolationist; almost no international support ($2,300)
NB: the responses were very different.. There is now an international LRRD debate (Linking Relief, Rehabilitation, and Development) The LRRD debate emphasises that humanitarian relief has a clear non-humanitarian (ie., political) edge cf (a) tsunami aid, with (b) Cyclone Nargis aid But here we will focus on tsunami aid
Topic 2: The Asian tsunami stages of response (Main message: different issues arise at different stages in responding to a disaster)
Human response Various stages following a disaster SARAH (S) Shock: depression (A) Anger: often towards authorities (R) Resentment: longer-term anger (A) Acceptance: after some years (H) Harmony: might take a long time to come
Policy response important stages Various stages following a disaster (1) Severe economic shock: sudden destruction (2) Relief: first recovery efforts (3) Rehabilitation: stronger recovery (4) Reconstruction: rebuilding (5) Winding down: return to normal
NB: some key issues (not discussed today) What are the links between the various stages? Should all aid agencies work in all stages? If not, who does what and when? (Comparative advantage.) Do actors in the process understand the differences?
Topic 3: Livelihood programs (Main message: good livelihood programs are needed to involve local communities in the recovery process)
Livelihood programs help stabilise the local economy
Topic 4: Coordination problems (Main message: there are no easy solutions to coordination problems during a disaster)
A key challenge Coordination!! Often a huge problem following disasters Aceh: -- Dozens of Indonesian official agencies -- 30 Bilateral agencies -- 40 International agencies -- 400 NGOs (and INGOs) Vital lead role played by BRR
INTOSAI : Supreme Audit Agencies (commenting on the tsunami): The humanitarian aid sector is characterized by various complexities among which the existence of multiple donors and recipients on a national and international level, the mixing and splitting up of various aid flows, the lack of coordination, cooperation and harmonization. These complexities lead to (or make possible) a lack of upward and downward accountability of aid flows, waste, competition, fraud and corruption.
Bill Clinton (UN Tsunami Ambassador): on the information problem: The need for timely and accurate information runs throughout a relief and recovery process and is the foundation for good analysis. Information needs cut across all facets of an operation, from damage and needs assessments to recovery planning and progress tracking.
The Tower of Babel What a way to run the world The Economist, 5-11 July 2008
Topic 5: The long-term: when donors go home (Main message: the return-to-normal phase after a disaster brings new challenges for donors as well as the affected region)
Aceh is now entering a return to normal phase... 1. Immediate economic challenge: countering a recession (end of aid) 2. Longer-term challenge: promoting growth, improving governance 3. Immediate governance problems: (a) aid assets (important for donors... risk of aid white elephants) (b) Dana Otsus funds
Topic 6: Summary of lessons (Main message: preparation for (beforehand) and response to (after) disasters is difficult -- but we can do better)
One main lesson: a key change of mode is needed
As Ban Ki-moon said, Don t wait for disaster (Jakarta Post, 23 Mar 2010, emphasis added) We cannot stop disasters from happening, but we can dramatically reduce their impact, if the right disaster risk reduction measures are taken in advance Donors need to fund disaster risk reduction and preparedness measures To prevent natural hazards turning into disasters, we must all act sooner and act smarter.
Lessons (1): 1. Objectives many different objectives 2. Local responses key element: policy should focus on local preparedness 3. Coordination very hard; strong local lead is needed 4. Stages pay attention to the different stages
Lessons (2): 5. Supply-oriented donors need for local stakeholders to provide feedback 6. Finance often hard to get details; often not well-monitored 7. Cost increases Dutch Disease issue; plan for local cost increases 8. Methods of spending very important; more use of cash often advisable
Further reading: Tsunami Evaluation Coalition, Synthesis report: executive summary, July 2006. Executive summary of a major evaluation of aid delivery issues prepared around one year after the tsunami. Brusset et, al. Summary report. A ripple in development?: Long term perspectives on the response to the Indian Ocean tsunami 2004, May 2009. Summary of a follow up evaluation to the previous TEC report which looks at the links between relief, rehabilitation and development (LRRD).