ELECTION UPDATE Tom Davis

Polarization The Ideological sorting of the parties 1. Redistricting Residential Sorting Voting Rights Act Gerrymandering 2. Media Business Models Cable News Talk Radio Internet 3. Money in Politics McCain Feingold Citizens United 2 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

Political Gerrymandering House Votes vs. House Seats in 2012 Democratic Vote Count 59,967,096 Republican Vote Count 58,523,501 Dem Vote Rep Vote 1,443,595 Democratic % of Vote 50.61% Democratic Seats 201 Republican Seats 234 Democratic % of Seats 46.21% Dem Seat % - Vote % -4.40% 7 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

Political Gerrymandering Vote for Congress (2012) in Three States in the Midwest Pennsylvania Michigan Ohio Democratic 2,793,538 2,487,243 2,412,451 Republican 2,710,070 2,238,540 2,620,251 House D Seats 5 5 4 House R Seats 13 9 12 Three State Totals Total Votes Percentage of Votes Number of Seats Percentage of Seats Democratic 7,693,232 50.4% 14 29.9% Republican 7,568,861 49.6% 34 70.8% 8 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

The incredible shrinking middle Most Liberal GOP Most Conservative Democrat More Liberal More Conservative Moderates Based on legislative voting records and analysis by National Journal 9 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

US house of representatives Most Lib GOP 1982 Most Cons DEM More Liberal More Conservative 344 79% 10 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

US house of representatives (cont.) Most Lib GOP 1994 Most Cons DEM More Liberal More Conservative 252 58% 11 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

US house of representatives (cont.) Most Lib GOP 2002 Most Cons DEM More Liberal More Conservative 137 31% 12 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

US house of representatives (cont.) 2014 Most Cons DEM Most Lib GOP More Liberal More Conservative 3 13 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

228 307 Candidate Popular Vote Percent Trump 62,238,425 46.6% Clinton 64,156,255 48.0% Johnson 4,274,975 3.26% Stein 1,316,086 0.99% *accurate as of 11/26/16 **3 accounts expected

Presidential Vote by County in 2012 (Two Countries) Democrats: East Coast, major population centers in Florida, major cities in industrial Midwest, West Coast, Ski Country (Colorado and Northern New Mexico), parts of the south. Republicans: rural and small town America, Majority of the South and coal country (Appalachia). It s all about turnout which side can get out its base voters and can win the independents in the suburbs of major cities. 25 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

1996 to 2012 - Changes in Party Coalitions Green Counties voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 but Romney in 2012. Orange Counties were Dole in 1996 but Obama in 2012 *Retrieved from: The New York Times 26 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

Suburban Movement Towards Democrat County/City 2004 2016 R% R% Cobb, GA 62.0 46.7 Gwinnett, GA 65.7 45.2 Orange, CA 59.7 43.3 Jefferson, CO 51.8 42.1 DuPaqe, IL 54.4 39.8 Marion, IN 48.6 36.1 Anne Arundel, MD 55.6 47.1 Somerset, NJ 51.7 41.9 Mecklenburg, NC 48.0 33.4 Wake, NC 50.8 37.9 Chester, PA 52.0 43.3 Fairfax, VA 45.9 29.1 Prince William, VA 52.8 37.3 Loudoun, VA 55.7 38.6 Anoka, MN 52.8 50.7 Oakland, MI 49.3 43.6 Orange, FL 49.6 35.7 Hillsborough, FL 53.0 44.7 Johnson, KS 61.1 47.9 Lancaster, NE 56.0 46.6 Delaware, OH 66.1 55.6 Clermont, OH 70.7 68.4 Dallas, TX 50.3 34.9 Harris, TX 54.8 41.8 Fort Bend, TX 57.4 45.0 Waukesha, WI 67.3 61.6 29 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Hamilton, OH 52.5 43.0

2018 Senate Races Democrat Held (25) Trump 2016% Republican Held (8) Trump 2016% West Virginia 68.65% North Dakota 64.10% Missouri 56.88% Indiana 56.82% Montana 56.52% Ohio 52.06% Florida 49.02% Pennsylvania 48.80% Michigan 47.50% Wisconsin 47.26% Maine 45.16% Minnesota 44.92% Virginia 44.43% New Jersey 42.03% Delaware 41.92% Connecticut 40.93% New Mexico 40.05% Rhode Island 39.46% Washington 38.06% New York 36.84% Maryland 34.79% Massachusetts 33.31% Wyoming 70.10% Tennessee 61.06% Nebraska 60.30% Mississippi 58.32% Texas 52.23% Arizona 49.03% Utah 46.80% Nevada 45.50% California 31.88% 40 Policy & Government Relations Strategy Vermont 29.76% Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Hawaii 29.40%