Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: January 29 - February 2 Sample: 800 Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire 410 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 390 Likely Republican Primary Voters Margin of Error: 4.9% for All Likely Voters 6.6% for Democratic Likely Voters 7.1% for Republican Likely Voters YouGov interviewed 989 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 801 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology, and political interest. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the 2014 American Community Survey. Data on voter registration was matched to this frame from the November 2012 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Landscape Survey. Data on voting behavior was matched to the frame from the 2008 and 2012 presidential primary exit polls. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and ideology. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. UMass Poll Directors/Fellows Brian F. Schaffner, Ph.D. Director schaffne@polsci.umass.edu Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. Associate Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu Tatishe Nteta, Ph.D. Associate Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu Mia Costa Research Fellow micosta@polsci.umass.edu Kaylee Johnson Research Fellow ktjohnson@polsci.umass.edu poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 1
Likely Republican Primary Voters If the presidential primary election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Trump 33 35 Rubio 14 15 Kasich 10 11 Cruz 9 9 Bush 6 8 Christie 5 5 Carson 3 4 Fiorina 3 3 Other 7 8 Not sure 10 3 Some people have not yet decided for sure who they will vote for. Is there any chance you might vote for someone other than [CANDIDATE NAME] on election day? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question Yes 48 No 52 What other candidates are you considering voting for? Asked of those who said they were not sure who they were voting for or who said they might vote for someone else (N = 191). Cruz 25 Bush 14 Christie 14 Rubio 12 Trump 11 Fiorina 10 Carson 9 Kasich 7 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 2
Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the nomination and become the Republican Party s candidate for president? Trump 50 Rubio 14 Cruz 11 Bush 6 Kasich 2 Carson 1 Christie 1 Fiorina 0 Not sure 16 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 3
Likely Democratic Primary Voters If the presidential primary election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Sanders 57 58 Clinton 33 35 Other 2 3 Not sure 9 5 Some people have not yet decided for sure who they will vote for. Is there any chance you might vote for someone other than [CANDIDATE NAME] on election day? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question Yes 28 No 72 Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the nomination and become the Democratic Party s candidate for president? Clinton 51 Sanders 36 Not sure 13 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 4
All Likely Primary Voters When did you decide who you would vote for in the presidential primary election? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question All LVs Republican LVs Democratic LVs Just today 1 2 < 1 In the last three days 4 4 4 Sometime last week 5 7 3 During the last month 27 31 24 Before that 62 56 69 In deciding who you will vote for in the upcoming presidential primary election, which of the following is MOST important to you? All Republican Democratic My candidate... LVs LVs LVs...best represents my views on the issues 42 40 45...has the best chance of winning the general election 8 12 5...is a strong leader 16 23 8...is honest and trustworthy 17 13 22...has the right experience for the job 17 13 21 There have been many campaign ads aired during the past few months. Which candidate would you say you has been criticized the most in these ads? All LVs Republican LVs Democratic LVs Hillary Clinton 23 16 31 Donald Trump 18 25 9 Marco Rubio 16 20 11 Ted Cruz 10 8 11 Chris Christie 2 2 2 Jeb Bush 5 5 5 John Kasich 2 1 2 Bernie Sanders 1 1 2 Not sure 24 21 28 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 5
In thinking about the upcoming primary election, what issue is most important to your vote? All LVs Republican LVs Democratic LVs Economy/jobs 22 21 24 Homeland security/terrorism 14 24 2 Federal deficit/gov t spending 9 10 9 Gov t ethics 9 8 9 Immigration 8 13 3 Healthcare 7 3 12 Social issues 5 2 9 Income inequality 4 1 9 Education 3 0 6 Environment/climate change 2 0 3 Taxes 1 2 1 Guns 1 1 1 Other 13 15 11 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 6
How would you rate the following candidates in terms of their honesty? Among all likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton 8 21 16 53 2 Bernie Sanders 48 31 9 5 7 Donald Trump 19 23 16 38 4 Marco Rubio 13 30 29 15 13 Ted Cruz 10 27 26 26 10 Chris Christie 11 32 29 20 9 Jeb Bush 18 40 22 11 9 John Kasich 16 42 11 4 27 Among Republican likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton 1 5 11 82 1 Bernie Sanders 31 35 15 8 11 Donald Trump 29 30 17 19 4 Marco Rubio 22 40 19 8 11 Ted Cruz 18 41 22 12 8 Chris Christie 19 44 25 7 5 Jeb Bush 23 47 16 8 5 John Kasich 21 43 9 2 24 Among Democratic likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton 16 40 22 19 3 Bernie Sanders 68 26 2 1 3 Donald Trump 8 14 13 61 4 Marco Rubio 2 17 40 24 17 Ted Cruz 2 11 30 44 13 Chris Christie 1 18 33 36 13 Jeb Bush 11 32 30 14 13 John Kasich 11 41 13 5 30 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 7
How would you rate the following candidates in terms of how qualified they are to be president? Among all likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton 31 22 10 36 2 Bernie Sanders 25 35 19 19 3 Donald Trump 13 21 13 52 2 Marco Rubio 11 33 27 21 7 Ted Cruz 15 25 24 30 6 Chris Christie 14 38 23 21 4 Jeb Bush 22 39 19 16 5 John Kasich 14 43 19 8 17 Among Republican likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton 9 19 12 59 1 Bernie Sanders 8 29 29 32 3 Donald Trump 21 31 15 31 2 Marco Rubio 19 41 21 13 5 Ted Cruz 26 35 19 16 5 Chris Christie 22 48 16 11 3 Jeb Bush 30 41 14 12 3 John Kasich 18 46 17 7 12 Among Democratic likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton 57 26 7 8 2 Bernie Sanders 44 42 8 3 3 Donald Trump 2 9 10 76 3 Marco Rubio 2 23 34 31 10 Ted Cruz 2 13 29 47 8 Chris Christie 4 26 30 33 7 Jeb Bush 12 36 25 21 6 John Kasich 10 39 21 8 23 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 8
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Hillary Clinton All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 9
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Bernie Sanders All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 10
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Donald Trump All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 11
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Marco Rubio All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 12
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Ted Cruz All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 13
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Chris Christie All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 14
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Jeb Bush All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 15
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? John Kasich All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 16
Sample Demographics Category All LVs Dem LVs Rep LVs Gender Male 47% 45% 49% Female 53% 55% 51% Age 18-29 8% 12% 5% 30-44 20% 18% 21% 45-64 49% 45% 53% 65+ 23% 24% 22% Education HS or less 22% 21% 23% Some college 16% 15% 17% College degree 38% 42% 35% Postgraduate 23% 22% 25% Party ID Democrat 33% 72% 2% Republican 34% 2% 61% Independent 32% 26% 37% Ideology Very Liberal 10% 22% 0% Liberal 19% 39% 2% Moderate 30% 33% 27% Conservative 32% 6% 52% Very Conservative 10% 1% 18% Income < $40k 21% 25% 17% $40 - $100k 56% 52% 60% > $100k 23% 23% 23% poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 17