CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, December 10, 2015 7:00 am EST Trump Back on Top, Cruz Climbs to Second December 4-8, 2015 With his highest level of support yet in CBS News polls, Donald Trump has reclaimed the top spot in the Republican race nationally. Ted Cruz, who was at just 4% in October, is now in second place, and Ben Carson has now dropped to third. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton enjoys a large lead over Bernie Sanders. She leads him by 20 points, similar to last month. Among registered voters nationwide, neither a Trump nor a Clinton presidency is met with a lot of enthusiasm, but there is somewhat more anxiety about Trump in the White House (64%) than Clinton (57%). The Republican Race 35% of Republican primary voters support Trump, up 13 points since October, and his highest level of support in CBS News polling. Ted Cruz (16%) has moved into second place, while Ben Carson, who led the October poll, has dropped to third. Marco Rubio is in fourth place with 9%. Jeb Bush is getting the backing of just 3% of Republican primary voters nationwide, his lowest percentage to date in CBS News polling. Carly Fiorina s support has also dropped; she is at just 1% now. Most of the interviews for this poll were conducted before Trump made statements concerning a ban on Muslims entering the United States. 2016 Republican Nomination for President (Among Republican primary voters) Now 10/27/15 10/11/2015 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 35% 22% 27% 27% 24% Ted Cruz 16 4 9 5 6 Ben Carson 13 26 21 23 6 Marco Rubio 9 8 8 6 6 Rand Paul 4 4 4 3 4 Mike Huckabee 3 4 2 6 8 Jeb Bush 3 7 6 6 13 John Kasich 3 4 2 3 1 Chris Christie 3 1 3 1 3 Carly Fiorina 1 7 6 4 * Rick Santorum * 1 1 1 1 Lindsey Graham -- 2 -- * * George Pataki -- -- * * 1 Jim Gilmore -- -- -- -- 1 Don t know 7 6 11 9 9 *Less than 0.5% 1
Trump voters continue to be more firm in their support. 51% of his backers say their minds are made up about him, compared to just a quarter of voters who support a candidate other than Trump. Mind Made Up on Candidate Choice? (Among Republican primary voters who chose a candidate) Trump Non-Trump Total Voters Voters 10/27/2015 Yes 34% 51% 24% 28% No, too early 64 48 75 71 Trump leads among both men and women. He has more than a 20 point lead among noncollege graduates (and a smaller lead among those with a college degree). But Cruz has made inroads with evangelicals. Carson led with this group in October, but now Cruz and Trump are running neck and neck among them; the two candidates are also close among very conservative Republicans. 2016 Republican Nomination for President (Among Republican primary voters) Trump Cruz Carson Men 35% 17 12 Women 36% 16 14 White Evangelicals 30% 28 16 Very conservative 31% 33 11 Somewhat conservative 34% 11 16 No college degree 40% 16 11 College degree 26% 17 16 The Democratic Race Hillary Clinton continues to lead Bernie Sanders by 20 points: she receives 52% of Democratic primary voters support, while Sanders gets 32%. Just 2% support Martin O Malley. 2016 Democratic Nomination for President (among Democratic primary voters) Now 11/2015 10/2015 Hillary Clinton 52% 52% 56% Bernie Sanders 32 33 32 Martin O'Malley 2 5 1 Don t know 9 6 4 Clinton leads among many voter groups men, women, liberals, moderates, non-whites and voters over age 45. But Sanders performs better with voters under 45 and independents. As the first nominating contests grow closer, Clinton s supporters are firmer in their choice (58%) than Bernie Sanders supporters (47%). Mind Made Up on Candidate Choice 2
(among Democratic primary voters with a candidate choice) Total Clinton supporters Sanders supporters Yes, mind made up 54% 58% 47% No, too early to say 45 42 50 Voter Enthusiasm Most registered voters nationwide are paying attention to the presidential campaign and about two-thirds are at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting in 2016, but there is a partisan enthusiasm gap: Republican primary voters are more enthusiastic about voting than those who plan to vote in a Democratic primary. How Enthusiastic Are You About Voting in 2016? (Among registered voters) Total Rep Primary Voters Dem Primary Voters Very 32% 40% 33% Somewhat 35 39 37 Not too/not at all 33 20 30 Looking Past November 2016 While the general election is nearly a year away, the poll asked registered voters nationwide how they would feel if each of the party s current front runners became president. Neither is met with a lot of enthusiasm, but there is somewhat more anxiety about a Trump presidency (64%) than a Clinton one (57%). Perhaps not surprisingly, views differ greatly by political party. 76% of Democrats would be either excited or optimistic if Hillary Clinton became president, while most would be skeptical about the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency, including 63% who say they would be scared. Republican voters hold contrasting views: 66% would be excited or optimistic if Donald Trump was elected president, but most would be concerned or scared if Clinton won the White House. Independent voters, a key voting bloc, are not especially enthusiastic about either a Clinton or a Trump in the White House, but more are concerned or scared about Trump (67%) than they are about Clinton (59%). If Hillary Clinton is Elected President, How Would You Feel? (Among registered voters) Total Reps Dems Inds Excited 9% 2% 22% 4% Optimistic 33 8 54 35 Concerned 23 24 17 27 Scared 34 65 6 32 3
If Donald Trump is Elected President, How Would You Feel? Total Reps Dems Inds (Among registered voters) Excited 11% 25% 2% 8% Optimistic 24 41 8 23 Concerned 24 20 25 26 Scared 40 13 63 41 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This poll was conducted by telephone December 4-8, 2015 among a random sample of 1,275 adults nationwide, including 1,053 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points, and four points for the sample of registered voters. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. The margin of error for the sample of 431 Republican primary voters is 6 percentage points. For the sample of 384 Democratic primary voters the margin of error is 6 percentage points. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 4
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL December 4-8, 2015 Q1-Q8 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE Q9. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Rep Prim Dem Prim Total Rep Dem Ind Voters Voters Nov15a % % % % % % % A lot 45 53 43 40 55 46 44 Some 36 35 34 38 35 34 34 Not much 13 8 16 14 6 15 16 No attention so far 6 2 7 8 2 6 6 Don't know/no answer 1 1 - * 1 -- * Q10. Thinking about the 2016 presidential election, overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting? Very enthusiastic 32 40 33 25 40 33 Somewhat enthusiastic 35 41 31 33 39 37 Not too enthusiastic 22 13 23 26 15 22 Not at all enthusiastic 11 5 12 14 5 8 Don't know/no answer 1 1 1 2 1 1 Q12. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016? * Republican Primary Voters * Oct15d % % Donald Trump 35 22 Ted Cruz 16 4 Ben Carson 13 26 Marco Rubio 9 8 Rand Paul 4 4 Jeb Bush 3 7 Mike Huckabee 3 4 John Kasich 3 4 Chris Christie 3 1 Carly Fiorina 1 7 Rick Santorum * 1 Lindsey Graham -- 2 George Pataki -- -- Jim Gilmore -- -- Someone Else (Vol.) * 2 None of them (Vol.) 2 3 Don't know/no answer 7 6 *Less than 0.5% 5
Q13. Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? * Republican Primary Voters with a Choice* Oct15d % % Mind made up 34 28 Too early 64 71 Don't know/no answer 2 1 Q14-Q41 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE Q42. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate for President in 2016? * DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS * Nov15a % % Hillary Clinton 52 52 Bernie Sanders 32 33 Martin O'Malley 2 5 Someone Else (Vol.) - 1 None of them (Vol.) 5 3 Don't know/no answer 9 6 Q43. Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? * DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CHOICE * % Mind made up 54 49 Too early 45 50 Don't know/no answer 1 1 Q44-Q70 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE Q71. If Donald Trump is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office -- excited, optimistic, but not excited, concerned, but not scared, or scared? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Excited 11 25 2 8 Optimistic, not excited 24 41 8 23 Concerned, not scared 24 20 25 26 Scared 40 13 63 41 Don't know/no answer 2 1 2 2 6
Q72. If Hillary Clinton is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what she will do in office -- excited, optimistic, but not excited, concerned, but not scared, or scared? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Excited 9 2 22 4 Optimistic, not excited 33 8 54 35 Concerned, not scared 23 24 17 27 Scared 34 65 6 32 Don't know/no answer 1 1 1 1 Unweighted Weighted Total Respondents 1,275 Total registered voters 1,053 973 Total Republicans 342 304 Total Democrats 383 365 Total Independents 550 607 Total Republican Primary Voters 431 369 Total Democratic Primary Voters 384 354 7