The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison Wisconsin Credit Union League January 25, 2011
Seat Change in States Seat Change in US House In the words of the President A shellacking 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400-500 -600-700 States' lower house U.S. House Presidential Party Seat Change, US House and Lower Houses in States 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70
Incumbents in US House 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Dem lost Dem <55% Dem >60% Rep lost Rep <55% Rep >60% 20 0 2004 2006 2008 2010
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112* The biggest seat swing in over 60 years 150 100 50 0-50 Congress Source: Barry Burden, UW-Madison
Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: presidential approval
Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy
Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy Republican support among voters who said: House 2010 Vote R House 2008 Vote R R Improvement Nation s economy in poor condition 71 29 42 Family s financial situation worse 63 28 35 Very worried about economy 70 37 33
Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: many seats up for grabs
Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: many recently won seats
Why a shellacking? Add the common problems of a party regaining unified control of government Add a well-mobilized, motivated grassroots opposition Add a stronger, more experienced pool of Republican candidates And a shellacking is the result
Fundamentals at work Democrats lost vote share in 89 percent of House districts Nearly every demographic group moved toward the GOP Source: Eric McGhee
Strongest Republican supporters
The result? From the most liberal to most conservative House overnight Source: Adam Bonica, ideologicalcartography.com
The result? And the return of divided government - Reagan 1981-86 (Rep Senate, Dem House) - Reagan 1987-88 (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Bush 1989-92 (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Clinton 1995-2000 (Rep Senate, Rep House) - Bush 2001-02 (Dem Senate, Rep House) - Bush 2007-08 (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Obama 2011-? (Dem Senate, Rep House)
The result?... in a time of historically high party conflict Source: Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal
The result? Major accomplishments are possible under these conditions, but extremely difficult Parties have different priorities, solutions, and electoral incentives
What about Citizens United? Senate The vast majority of ads were still run by candidates and parties in 2010. 85.5% Interest group ads Candidate and party ads House Governor Interest group ads Interest group ads 86.6% Candidate and party ads 87.0% Candidate and party ads Source: Wesleyan Media Project
The wave in the states: five quick facts GOP holds its most seats in state legislatures since 1928 GOP gained about 700 seats nationally, most by either party since 1966 Over 20 state legislative chamber switches to GOP. To Dems: 0 Republicans control over 55 chambers, their most since 1952 Fifty fewer Democrats ran than in 2008, while 820 more Republicans ran
1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Republicans in Assembly, Wisconsin 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Republicans in Senate, Wisconsin 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Largest postwar gains, Wisconsin legislature Assembly Senate Year Party Gain Year Party Gain 1958 Dem 22 1946 Rep 5 1970 Dem 19 1976 Dem 5 1948 Dem 15 1950 Dem 4 2010 Rep 14 1980 Rep 4 1946 Rep 13 2006 Dem 4 1954 Dem 11 2010 Rep 4