Virginia s 7 th Congressional District Republican Primary Survey Analysis

Virginia s 7 th Congressional District Republican Primary Survey Analysis By: John McLaughlin

1. Methodology 2. Primary Ballot Analysis 3. General Election Analysis 4. Issue Analysis 5. Media Analysis 6. Voter Profile Presentation Outline 2

Methodology This post-election survey of political attitudes was conducted among 400 Republican Primary election voters between June 14 th and 15 th, 2014 in Virginia s 7 th Congressional District. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in a districtwide primary election. 25% of all interviews were conducted via cell phone. The accuracy of the sample of 400 likely Republican Primary Election voters is within +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. 3

GOP Primary Ballot: Cantor vs. Brat 5/29/14 6/15/14 CANTOR 61.8 44.0 BRAT 27.5 56.0 FIRM UNDECIDED 10.8 -- NET 34.3-12.0 60 56 50 44 40 30 20 10 0 Cantor Brat 4

E.C. D.B. E.C. D.B. E.C. D.B. TOTAL 44 56 Obama Approve 20 80 Single 39 61 North 61 39 Obama Disapprove 50 50 Married 42 58 South 41 59 Gen. Ballot DEM 22 78 Protestant 49 52 Richmond MM 42 58 Gen. Ballot - GOP 49 51 Catholic 31 69 Washington D.C. MM 58 42 Gen. Ballot - UND 51 49 Born Again Yes 49 51 Big Three Counties 42 58 Vote Brat 45 55 Born Again No 46 54 Rest of District 48 52 Vote Trammell 25 75 White 46 54 Voted Cantor 100 0 Vote UND 61 39 Non-White 35 65 Voted Brat 0 100 FNC Reg. 55 45 Under 55 27 73 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 44 56 FNC Not Reg. 26 74 Over 55 53 47 Decide Vote < 2weeks 38 62 Cons. Radio Reg. 40 60 Men 40 60 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 52 48 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 46 54 Women 48 52 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 16 84 Tea Party Member 44 56 Always/Usually Cell 40 60 1 st Time Vote Primary 39 61 Tea Party Agree 48 53 Equal Cell/Landline 34 66 Economic 41 60 Tea Party Disagree 35 65 Always/Usually Landline 55 45 Social 46 54 Pro-Life 49 52 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 52 48 Republican 55 46 Pro-Choice 40 60 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 56 44 Non-Republican 31 69 Voted Any Dem. Primary 30 70 Democrat 14 86 Never Voted Primary 42 59 Independent 38 62 Lib./Mod. 35 65 Conservative 51 50 Smwt. Cons. 52 48 Very Cons. 50 51 5

As you are aware, very few people actually vote in primary elections. Do you normally vote in primaries? If, so do you normally vote in the Republican Primary of the Democratic Primary? If this was the first time you voted in a primary just say so. 70 64 60 50 40 30 20 10 11 11 14 0 Normally Republican Primary Normally Democratic 1st Time Voting in Primary Primary DK/Ref 6

GOP DEM 1 st GOP DEM 1 st GOP DEM 1 st TOTAL 64 11 11 Obama Approve 22 42 16 Single 60 15 20 North 73 12 12 Obama Disapprove 78 2 8 Married 64 10 12 South 63 11 11 Gen. Ballot DEM 14 47 17 Protestant 69 10 11 Richmond MM 63 11 11 Gen. Ballot - GOP 80 1 9 Catholic 55 14 16 Washington D.C. MM 69 13 12 Gen. Ballot - UND 52 7 9 Born Again Yes 71 11 9 Big Three Counties 61 12 11 Vote Brat 77 3 9 Born Again No 65 8 14 Rest of District 72 10 9 Vote Trammell 17 43 14 White 66 9 11 Voted Cantor 76 4 9 Vote UND 57 10 13 Non-White 54 28 11 Voted Brat 55 17 12 FNC Reg. 76 5 8 Under 55 58 15 12 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 66 10 10 FNC Not Reg. 44 21 16 Over 55 68 9 14 Decide Vote < 2weeks 54 16 15 Cons. Radio Reg. 82 4 5 Men 67 10 14 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 100 0 0 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 57 14 13 Women 62 12 15 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 0 100 0 Tea Party Member 87 3 5 Always/Usually Cell 61 12 14 1 st Time Vote Primary 0 0 100 Tea Party Agree 76 2 10 Equal Cell/Landline 63 15 12 Economic 66 10 8 Tea Party Disagree 35 31 14 Always/Usually Landline 68 8 14 Social 61 15 11 Pro-Life 73 6 9 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 78 5 12 Republican 87 1 8 Pro-Choice 55 18 12 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 82 3 11 Non-Republican 38 23 14 Voted Any Dem. Primary 44 23 24 Democrat 8 65 13 Never Voted Primary 58 8 14 Independent 49 6 14 Lib./Mod. 40 23 14 Conservative 78 3 10 Smwt. Cons. 75 3 14 Very Cons. 81 3 7 7

When did you decide how you were going to vote in the Primary Election for Congress? Was it? 70 60 63 50 40 30 20 10 13 8 5 5 6 0 Before Memorial Day 2 Weeks Ago The Week before the The Weekend before the Primary Primary On Primary Day DK/Ref 8

MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of TOTAL 63 13 8 5 5 Obama Approve 61 14 10 6 4 North 64 20 6 1 8 Obama Disapprove 64 13 7 4 6 South 63 12 8 5 5 Gen. Ballot DEM 61 15 10 7 3 Richmond MM 63 13 8 5 5 Gen. Ballot - GOP 65 13 7 4 6 Washington D.C. MM 66 19 5 2 8 Gen. Ballot - UND 58 10 6 6 4 Big Three Counties 65 10 9 5 5 Vote Brat 63 15 7 4 7 Rest of District 59 21 5 4 7 Vote Trammell 63 13 11 8 2 Voted Cantor 65 11 6 4 5 Vote UND 65 7 8 4 1 Voted Brat 61 15 8 5 6 FNC Reg. 66 11 7 6 6 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 83 17 0 0 0 FNC Not Reg. 58 17 8 4 4 Decide Vote < 2weeks 0 0 43 26 31 Cons. Radio Reg. 68 11 7 6 6 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 66 14 6 3 6 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 61 14 8 5 5 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 53 19 14 9 2 Tea Party Member 71 8 8 6 6 1 st Time Vote Primary 61 8 7 7 10 Tea Party Agree 62 13 8 7 7 Economic 64 13 10 6 5 Tea Party Disagree 61 16 8 3 3 Social 61 14 6 4 5 Pro-Life 67 13 8 6 6 Republican 65 14 8 4 5 Pro-Choice 61 14 6 5 5 Non-Republican 60 13 8 6 7 Democrat 59 16 9 8 5 Independent 61 12 7 5 7 Lib./Mod. 64 13 8 7 3 Conservative 64 13 7 3 7 Smwt. Cons. 64 16 3 4 5 Very Cons. 64 11 10 2 8 9

MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of Single 48 21 6 11 11 Married 66 11 7 5 5 Protestant 65 14 6 6 6 Catholic 66 13 7 6 6 Born Again Yes 65 16 5 5 5 Born Again No 62 14 7 7 7 White 66 13 6 5 5 Non-White 44 19 15 5 5 Under 55 60 14 8 6 8 Over 55 65 14 7 4 4 Men 64 12 9 5 6 Women 62 15 6 5 5 Always/Usually Cell 594 14 10 4 7 Equal Cell/Landline 66 14 6 5 4 Always/Usually Landline 66 13 6 4 5 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 66 14 6 3 5 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 64 13 6 3 7 Voted Any Dem. Primary 60 13 8 5 5 Never Voted Primary 60 12 8 6 7 10

Which one of the following issues is most important to you when deciding your vote for Congress? Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men ECONOMIC 51 47 55 52 63 49 56 56 49 49 59 44 Economy/Jobs 29 28 30 30 33 26 35 43 21 21 32 27 Gov t Spending/Debt 17 14 20 16 25 18 17 9 22 22 22 13 Taxes 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 6 5 6 4 SOCIAL 35 36 34 34 30 34 35 37 31 35 31 38 Healthcare 13 9 16 10 18 10 15 18 8 11 13 13 Immigration 8 9 7 9 4 10 4 3 11 10 7 8 Education 5 5 5 5 4 2 8 12 1 0 5 5 Soc. Sec./Medicare 5 7 3 6 0 6 4 3 7 4 6 4 Abortion 3 4 2 2 4 4 2 1 1 6 1 5 Gay Marriage 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 0 2 4 1 4 NAT L SEC./TERROR 7 9 5 8 3 9 5 1 13 10 6 8 SOMETHING ELSE 4 5 3 4 2 5 1 4 2 5 2 5 DK/Refused 3 2 4 3 2 3 2 3 5 2 2 4 11

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? 80 76 70 67 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 22 13 10 9 1 APPROVE Strongly Smwt. DISAPPROVE Smwt. Strongly DK/REF. 12

App. Disapp. App. Disapp. App. Disapp. TOTAL 22 76 Obama Approve 100 0 Single 33 67 North 18 82 Obama Disapprove 0 100 Married 21 78 South 23 75 Gen. Ballot DEM 86 13 Protestant 20 79 Richmond MM 23 76 Gen. Ballot - GOP 4 96 Catholic 27 72 Washington D.C. MM 20 80 Gen. Ballot - UND 26 69 Born Again Yes 21 78 Big Three Counties 24 74 Vote Brat 7 93 Born Again No 20 78 Rest of District 19 81 Vote Trammell 85 11 White 19 79 Voted Cantor 10 87 Vote UND 24 74 Non-White 50 50 Voted Brat 32 68 FNC Reg. 10 89 Under 55 29 70 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 22 77 FNC Not Reg. 43 56 Over 55 19 80 Decide Vote < 2weeks 26 73 Cons. Radio Reg. 5 95 Men 20 79 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 8 93 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 29 69 Women 25 73 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 86 14 Tea Party Member 0 100 Always/Usually Cell 22 77 1 st Time Vote Primary 34 60 Tea Party Agree 7 92 Equal Cell/Landline 27 71 Economic 21 78 Tea Party Disagree 57 41 Always/Usually Landline 21 80 Social 29 69 Pro-Life 9 89 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 11 88 Republican 5 94 Pro-Choice 38 62 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 8 92 Non-Republican 43 55 Voted Any Dem. Primary 46 52 Democrat 97 3 Never Voted Primary 20 78 Independent 23 75 Lib./Mod. 50 48 Conservative 5 94 Smwt. Cons. 7 93 Very Cons. 3 95 13

Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress 80 70 68 60 50 44 40 30 20 10 19 10 6 3 17 8 13 0 DEMO- CRAT Definitely Probably Lean REPUB- LICAN Definitely Probably Lean UND. 14

DEM GOP UND DEM GOP UND DEM GOP UND TOTAL 19 68 13 Obama Approve 73 12 15 Single 29 67 4 North 16 76 8 Obama Disapprove 3 85 12 Married 18 68 14 South 20 67 14 Gen. Ballot DEM 100 0 0 Protestant 17 71 12 Richmond MM 19 67 14 Gen. Ballot - GOP 0 100 0 Catholic 23 65 12 Washington D.C. MM 20 75 5 Gen. Ballot - UND 0 0 100 Born Again Yes 14 75 11 Big Three Counties 20 67 13 Vote Brat 5 89 6 Born Again No 20 67 13 Rest of District 17 71 12 Vote Trammell 86 7 7 White 16 71 13 Voted Cantor 9 76 15 Vote UND 8 41 51 Non-White 43 47 10 Voted Brat 27 62 11 FNC Reg. 8 82 10 Under 55 27 61 12 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 19 70 11 FNC Not Reg. 39 46 16 Over 55 16 72 13 Decide Vote < 2weeks 23 65 12 Cons. Radio Reg. 4 89 7 Men 19 72 8 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 4 85 11 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 25 60 15 Women 19 64 17 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 83 9 9 Tea Party Member 3 97 0 Always/Usually Cell 19 69 12 1 st Time Vote Primary 29 60 11 Tea Party Agree 4 86 11 Equal Cell/Landline 24 66 10 Economic 20 65 15 Tea Party Disagree 52 29 19 Always/Usually Landline 17 70 14 Social 22 66 12 Pro-Life 8 83 8 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 8 80 13 Republican 4 87 9 Pro-Choice 32 50 18 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 5 81 14 Non-Republican 37 45 17 Voted Any Dem. Primary 38 43 19 Democrat 91 4 4 Never Voted Primary 21 68 12 Independent 16 62 23 Lib./Mod. 44 36 20 Conservative 3 87 9 Smwt. Cons. 6 81 13 Very Cons. 2 92 7 15

Ballot: U.S. Congress (Brat (R) vs. Trammell (D)) 80 70 68 60 50 52 40 30 20 10 12 5 17 9 4 3 15 0 BRAT Definitely Probably Lean TRAM- MELL Definitely Probably Lean UND. 16

D.B. J.T. UND D.B. J.T. UND D.B. J.T. UND TOTAL 68 17 15 Obama Approve 20 64 16 Single 63 25 12 North 75 8 17 Obama Disapprove 83 2 14 Married 71 16 13 South 67 18 14 Gen. Ballot DEM 18 76 6 Protestant 70 15 15 Richmond MM 68 18 14 Gen. Ballot - GOP 89 2 9 Catholic 77 16 8 Washington D.C. MM 74 9 17 Gen. Ballot - UND 32 10 58 Born Again Yes 70 15 16 Big Three Counties 67 19 14 Vote Brat 100 0 0 Born Again No 69 17 14 Rest of District 72 12 16 Vote Trammell 0 100 0 White 72 15 14 Voted Cantor 70 9 21 Vote UND 0 0 100 Non-White 47 33 20 Voted Brat 67 23 10 FNC Reg. 79 6 16 Under 55 65 23 13 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 70 17 14 FNC Not Reg. 52 36 12 Over 55 71 14 15 Decide Vote < 2weeks 69 20 11 Cons. Radio Reg. 88 1 11 Men 72 17 11 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 82 5 13 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 61 23 16 Women 65 17 18 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 21 66 13 Tea Party Member 92 0 8 Always/Usually Cell 70 14 16 1 st Time Vote Primary 60 22 18 Tea Party Agree 86 3 11 Equal Cell/Landline 68 23 9 Economic 69 17 14 Tea Party Disagree 34 47 20 Always/Usually Landline 69 15 16 Social 62 21 17 Pro-Life 84 7 9 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 79 7 14 Republican 86 3 11 Pro-Choice 52 29 19 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 84 4 13 Non-Republican 48 34 18 Voted Any Dem. Primary 45 37 18 Democrat 15 75 10 Never Voted Primary 70 15 15 Independent 61 18 21 Lib./Mod. 52 39 19 Conservative 85 3 12 Smwt. Cons. 83 4 13 Very Cons. 86 3 12 17

Do you favor or oppose the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? 90 80 70 60 50 40 77 68 30 20 10 0 21 13 8 10 2 FAVOR Strong Smwt OPPOSE Smwt Strong DK/REF. 18

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose TOTAL 21 77 Obama Approve 80 15 Single 26 70 North 13 86 Obama Disapprove 3 95 Married 20 78 South 22 76 Gen. Ballot DEM 77 50 Protestant 17 81 Richmond MM 21 77 Gen. Ballot - GOP 4 94 Catholic 23 77 Washington D.C. MM 15 83 Gen. Ballot - UND 24 73 Born Again Yes 14 85 Big Three Counties 21 76 Vote Brat 5 94 Born Again No 20 77 Rest of District 18 80 Vote Trammell 80 20 White 17 81 Voted Cantor 6 91 Vote UND 26 67 Non-White 48 49 Voted Brat 32 67 FNC Reg. 8 90 Under 55 26 72 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 20 78 FNC Not Reg. 41 56 Over 55 18 80 Decide Vote < 2weeks 23 76 Cons. Radio Reg. 4 94 Men 21 77 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 7 91 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 27 71 Women 20 78 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 77 21 Tea Party Member 3 97 Always/Usually Cell 18 78 1 st Time Vote Primary 29 66 Tea Party Agree 4 94 Equal Cell/Landline 25 74 Economic 21 78 Tea Party Disagree 53 44 Always/Usually Landline 20 79 Social 25 72 Pro-Life 7 92 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 9 89 Republican 4 95 Pro-Choice 36 61 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 6 91 Non-Republican 41 56 Voted Any Dem. Primary 48 51 Democrat 85 10 Never Voted Primary 17 80 Independent 24 74 Lib./Mod. 46 50 Conservative 5 94 Smwt. Cons. 7 91 Very Cons. 3 97 19

How often do you watch Fox News Channel? Would you say Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men REGULARLY 62 77 50 63 61 77 45 43 64 82 64 61 Everyday 30 36 25 29 33 41 17 15 32 43 33 27 Almost Everyday 13 18 9 14 11 16 9 10 13 17 12 14 Couple Times/Week 19 23 17 20 17 20 19 18 20 22 19 19 NOT REGULARLY 37 22 49 36 39 23 54 56 36 19 36 38 Rarely 20 13 25 20 24 14 27 29 21 10 23 17 Never 17 9 24 17 16 10 26 27 15 8 13 22 DK/REFUSED 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 20

How often do you listen to conservative talk radio shows like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck? Would you say Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men REGULARLY 28 25 30 29 26 35 18 11 30 44 31 25 Everyday 9 6 11 9 5 13 4 2 6 18 11 6 Almost Everyday 5 5 6 6 6 7 2 2 8 8 6 4 Couple Times/Week 14 14 14 14 13 15 12 7 15 19 14 14 NOT REGULARLY 71 74 69 71 74 65 80 89 71 55 68 74 Once a Week 6 6 5 5 9 8 3 5 5 7 5 7 Rarely 25 29 22 25 26 27 23 23 27 28 28 22 Never 41 39 43 41 39 30 54 62 39 20 35 46 DK/REFUSED 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 21

Thinking about the Tea Party, which one of the following statements best describes you and your opinions? 70 60 50 61 5/29/14 6/15/14 TEA PARTY 73.3 61.0 MEMBER/PARTICIPATED 10.0 7.0 AGREE WITH 63.3 53.9 DO NOT AGREE WITH 20.3 31.8 DK/REFUSED 6.5 7.2 NET 53.0 29.2 54 40 30 32 20 10 7 7 0 TEA-PARTY Tea-Party Member/Have Attended Event Not Member/Not Attend But Agree w/ Issues/Priorities DO NOT AGREE W/ TEA PARTY DK/Ref 22

Mem. Agree Disagree Mem. Agree Disagree Mem. Agree Disagree TOTAL 7 54 32 Obama Approve 0 16 81 Single 8 53 33 North 14 57 18 Obama Disapprove 9 65 17 Married 7 55 32 South 6 54 34 Gen. Ballot DEM 1 11 86 Protestant 7 55 31 Richmond MM 6 54 33 Gen. Ballot - GOP 10 68 14 Catholic 4 60 32 Washington D.C. MM 17 53 22 Gen. Ballot - UND 0 44 47 Born Again Yes 7 57 17 Big Three Counties 6 55 33 Vote Brat 10 68 16 Born Again No 8 51 36 Rest of District 11 52 30 Vote Trammell 0 10 88 White 8 56 29 Voted Cantor 7 58 25 Vote UND 4 39 42 Non-White 3 32 55 Voted Brat 7 51 37 FNC Reg. 9 65 19 Under 55 6 54 38 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 7 53 32 FNC Not Reg. 4 38 53 Over 55 8 54 29 Decide Vote < 2weeks 6 61 32 Cons. Radio Reg. 19 66 8 Men 10 56 30 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 10 64 17 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 3 49 41 Women 4 52 34 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 2 9 88 Tea Party Member 100 0 0 Always/Usually Cell 5 63 28 1 st Time Vote Primary 3 49 42 Tea Party Agree 0 100 0 Equal Cell/Landline 6 51 36 Economic 7 57 33 Tea Party Disagree 0 0 100 Always/Usually Landline 10 47 35 Social 6 49 38 Pro-Life 10 67 15 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 9 58 23 Republican 8 68 17 Pro-Choice 5 38 52 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 12 55 22 Non-Republican 6 38 50 Voted Any Dem. Primary 5 41 50 Democrat 0 9 89 Never Voted Primary 5 61 29 Independent 8 50 34 Lib./Mod. 2 30 63 Conservative 10 71 13 Smwt. Cons. 5 71 17 Very Cons. 13 71 9 23

60 On the issue of abortion, would you consider yourself to be pro-life, or pro-choice? 5/29/14 6/15/14 PRO-LIFE 61.8 48.6 Strongly 52.3 39.0 Smwt. 9.5 9.6 PRO-CHOICE 33.5 43.7 Smwt. 14.5 16.3 Strongly 19.0 27.4 DK/REFUSED 4.8 7.7 NET 28.3 4.9 50 40 49 39 44 30 27 20 10 10 16 8 0 PRO-LIFE Strongly Smwt PRO-CHOICE Smwt Stongly DK/REF. 24

Pro-Life Pro-Choice Pro-Life Pro-Choice Pro-Life Pro-Choice TOTAL 49 44 Obama Approve 20 73 Single 37 55 North 58 35 Obama Disapprove 26 35 Married 53 42 South 47 45 Gen. Ballot DEM 21 74 Protestant 50 43 Richmond MM 48 45 Gen. Ballot - GOP 60 32 Catholic 63 31 Washington D.C. MM 56 35 Gen. Ballot - UND 31 60 Born Again Yes 68 27 Big Three Counties 49 44 Vote Brat 60 33 Born Again No 31 59 Rest of District 48 44 Vote Trammell 19 74 White 52 42 Voted Cantor 54 40 Vote UND 30 57 Non-White 35 61 Voted Brat 45 47 FNC Reg. 56 36 Under 55 45 49 Decide Vote > 2 weeks 51 43 FNC Not Reg. 37 56 Over 55 52 42 Decide Vote < 2weeks 43 45 Cons. Radio Reg. 65 28 Men 47 45 Norm. Vote GOP Prime 56 37 Cons. Radio Not Reg. 42 51 Women 50 43 Norm. Vote DEM Prime 24 70 Tea Party Member 65 29 Always/Usually Cell 47 46 1 st Time Vote Primary 41 48 Tea Party Agree 60 31 Equal Cell/Landline 48 46 Economic 48 46 Tea Party Disagree 23 72 Always/Usually Landline 52 42 Social 43 49 Pro-Life 100 0 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 55 38 Republican 61 32 Pro-Choice 0 100 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 61 34 Non-Republican 35 57 Voted Any Dem. Primary 36 56 Democrat 16 76 Never Voted Primary 48 43 Independent 43 50 Lib./Mod. 25 71 Conservative 63 28 Smwt. Cons. 48 52 Very Cons. 74 19 25

Of all the personal telephone calls that you receive, that is calls not related to your job, do you get? All calls on a cell phone, Almost all calls on a cell phone, Some on a cell phone and some on a regular home phone, All or almost all calls on a regular home phone, OR Do not have a home phone Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men Use Cell More 36 32 38 34 45 35 35 34 41 36 38 33 All Cell 9 8 10 9 11 9 8 5 11 10 11 7 Almost All Cell 27 24 29 25 34 26 27 29 30 26 28 26 SOME CELL/HOME 26 20 30 27 22 22 31 33 18 24 28 34 ALL/ ALMOST ALL HOME 35 44 29 37 30 40 31 32 39 35 32 39 Mostly Land 27 32 22 29 19 30 24 26 30 25 25 29 Only Land 9 12 6 7 11 10 7 7 9 10 7 10 DK/REFUSED 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 1 2 5 2 5 26

Voter Profile Vote Primary Tot. E.C. D.B. Religion Tot. E.C. D.B. Cell/Land Usage Tot. E.C. D.B. Eric Cantor 44 100 0 Protestant 55 61 51 Cell More 36 32 38 Dave Brat 56 0 100 Catholic 19 13 23 Some Cell/Land 26 20 30 Ideology % % % Jewish 2 2 2 Land More 35 44 29 Liberal 9 5 13 Born Again % % % Age % % % Moderate 28 24 30 Yes 48 48 47 18 29 3 3 3 Conservative 60 69 53 No 48 46 50 30 40 4 1 6 Smwt. Cons. 25 29 21 Marital Status % % % 41 55 26 17 33 Very Cons. 35 39 32 Single, Never Married 10 9 11 56 65 23 22 23 Party Affiliation % % % Married 70 66 73 Over 65 40 53 29 Republican 54 67 44 Separated 1 1 1 MEAN 60 63 57 Democrat 13 4 19 Divorced 8 9 7 Vote GOP Prez 08 % % % Independent 32 28 36 Widowed 8 11 6 Yes 28 32 24 Primary % % % Abortion Issue % % % No 72 68 76 Norm. GOP Prim. 64 76 55 Pro-Life 49 54 45 Vote GOP Prez 12 % % % Norm. DEM Prim. 11 4 17 Pro-Choice 44 40 67 Yes 28 35 23 1 st Time 11 9 12 Gender % % % No 72 65 77 DK/Ref. 14 11 17 Male 49 44 53 Vote GOP Cong 12 % % % Race % % % Female 51 56 47 Yes 42 53 33 White 84 87 82 List % % % No 59 47 67 African American 6 3 8 Cell 25 22 27 Any DEM Primary % % % Hispanic 3 2 4 Land 75 78 73 Yes 29 20 37 Asian 1 2 0 No 71 80 63 Vote Any Primary % % % Yes 69 71 68 No 31 29 32

Voter Profile (Cont.) Area Tot. E.C. D.B. RICHMOND MM 89 86 92 Hanover 19 17 21 Chesterfield 19 16 22 Henrico 32 35 29 City of Richmond 5 6 4 Rest of Richmond 14 12 15 WASHINGTON D.C. 11 14 8 Spotsylvania 6 8 4 Rest of Wash D.C. 5 6 4 AREA % % % North 14 20 10 South 86 80 90 Area % % % Big Three 70 68 73 Rest of District 30 32 28 28