GLOBAL MARITIME RISKS 2015:

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GLOBAL MARITIME RISKS 2015: Moving beyond piracy Sebastian Villyn 21 May 2015 www.controlrisks.com Control Risks Group Limited

Control Risks Maritime 2 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Maritime Security services Maritime Risk Analysis Bespoke consultancy Client / crew briefings Maritime Security Online (MSO) Embarked security support East and West Africa Land (port) based support Other services Vessel security review and hardening Ship and Port Facility Security Assessments Security risk assessments Crisis response Investigations 3 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Maritime Verifying information Media reports P&I alerts Statements from officials Academic reports Al-Haram, quoted by Sputnik News, 28 March 2015 Security industry Statistics NBC News, 27 March 2014 The Guardian, 25 February 2015 4 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

5 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Breakdown Breakbulk 1 January 2013 to 21 May 2015 35 incidents Majority theft and robbery Kidnaps recorded Assault connected to civil unrest Heavy-lift involved in activism incidents Majority while anchored or berthed Incidents underway have occurred in South-East Asia and Gulf of Guinea General cargo: 10% of cargo vessel attacks Horn of Africa 2007-2012 33 general cargo vessels hijacked Two heavy-lift vessels Recent attack occurred Gulf of Guinea Cote d Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria South America Colombia South-East Asia Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore Strait and South China Sea Sub-Saharan Africa DRC, The Congo West Africa Guinea, Liberia 6 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Maritime Trends in 2015 Greater proportion of operators affected by broader maritime risks (political, security, operational and integrity risks) arising from onshore instability Conflict risks and threat to sea-lanes of communication Transnational terrorist groups, and local militancy Territorial disputes Assaults on military personnel and assets Other (location and sector-specific) operational risks to consider: Activism, migration Industry becoming more risk-aware, but perhaps not risk-averse Understanding of operating environment key to successful mitigation of threats 7 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Threat Maritime terrorism and militancy High-profile incidents, 2014 and 2015 Balhaf LNG terminal, Yemen Karachi port and naval dockyard Es Sider terminal, Libya Ashdod, Israel Recent incidents have demonstrated common trends: Unsophisticated Areas of existing instability Strategic facilities and security forces targeted Few groups retain the capability to launch complex attacks despite aspirations 8 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Threat Conflict and civil unrest High-profile incidents, 2014 and 2015 Derna, Libya Intervention Yemen Annexation Crimea Common trends: Weak state Asymmetric relations Territorial disputes (intrastate and interstate) Assaults 9 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Global Impact Shortage of workers or inadequate port security Port closures Force M ajeure Naval blockade Collateral damage Direct targeting of vessels Supply chain disruption Insurance and additional requirements 10 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Global Operational risks Stowaways and regulations Smuggling Restrictions and listed areas Lloyd s Joint War Risk Committee US Coast Guard Corruption and bribery Sanctions Politically motivated vessel seizures Territorial disputes Labour disputes and strikes 11 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Global snapshot Activism and direct action Environmental Conservational Industrial Political 12 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Global snapshot Migration Western Mediterranean Central and Eastern Mediterranean Caribbean South Asia Horn of Africa South-East Asia Operational risks and concerns Security risk? 13 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Global Piracy and armed robbery at sea The most persistent threat to maritime operators Global issue, but often underreported Varying degree of impact on operations 14 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Threat Piracy in South-East Asia High level of incident numbers however most represent port and anchorage crime 2015 Sharp rise in hijacking-forcargo and hijacking-forvessel theft in 2014 Armed robbery underway in the Singapore Strait significant increase 15 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Threat Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea Piracy predominant security threat Multiple incident types: Port and anchorage crime Robbery Kidnap-for-ransom Hijack-for-cargo Overall activity decreased, but kidnapping figures unchanged Threat depends on vessel type and location Security measures continue to be effectively employed Militancy so far restricted 2015 16 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Threat Somali piracy off the Horn of Africa Key trends Consistent hijack-for-ransom modus operandi Major decline since mid-2011 due to: Improvements in ship security Better coordination amongst naval forces However threat remains high despite lack of recent activity 2012 2014 17 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Managing Mitigation measures Access to reliable information Clear community and country understanding Realistic understanding of the threats Routines and crew training Crisis management plans Physical security 18 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Looking ahead 2015 The maritime industry continues to be vulnerable to the effects of onshore instability and conflict Maritime terrorism and militancy appears to remain unsophisticated but can still cause major disruption to supply chains Localised disputes and protests may not pose direct security threats but can cause delays and disruption to maritime operations Piracy and armed robbery at sea will continue to pose a threat to the maritime sector however the threat continues to be dependent on vessel type and area of operations Understanding the specific threats to vessels and crew can help companies develop more effective mitigation strategies 19 Breakbulk Europe Control Risks Group Limited

Questions? Sebastian.Villyn@controlrisks.com www.controlrisks.com