IR History Post-1950 John Lee Department of Political Science Florida State University
World War II Germany initially expands, no one stops them. Allied v/s Axis Powers. USSR/Germany reach initial compromise, Germany eventually attacks USSR. Japan attacks US at Pearl Harbor. US uses nuclear weapons against Japan, justified?
Vietnam War High casualty war do Americans become conflict-averse?
KASHMIR
Kashmir 13 million people After partition Hindu leader (Kashmir is 75% Muslim) opts for independence (e.g. a third state). October 1947 Kashmir rule allows Indian rule in exchange for help fighting insurgents from Pakistan. Indian help arrives but not before insurgents claim 1/3 of territory.
Kashmir Plebiscite a vote (similar to referendum) where all citizens vote to adopt measure x. Kashmir is supposed to have plebiscite where citizens decide to join either Pakistan or India. This has never happened. India will not allow plebiscite until Pakistani military forces are out.
Kashmir Why does Pakistan want Kashmir? Pakistan is formed as a Muslim state therefore it feels it should include the 75% Muslim Kashmir. Why does India want Kashmir? Official position is that Kashmiri ruler acceded to India rule. India views itself as multiethnic state thus it wants to include majority Muslim territory. Slippery Slope Other states wish to break away from India. Indian leaders are afraid if they let Kashmir slip other states will leave as well.
Indian Kashmir Three Regions: the Kashmir Valley (95% Muslim), southern Jammu region (65% Hindu and 30% Muslim, eastern Ladakh region (50% Buddhist and 50% Muslim). Insurgency is largely confined to Kashmir Valley. Insurgents seek shelter in Pakistan-Kashmir where Pakistani s cannot control them. War almost results from this in 2002 after attack on Indian Parliament. India mobilizes 600,000 troops but Pakistan cracks down on insurgency.
Possible Solutions 1. Maintain territorial status quo. 2. Transfer of power of Indian held territory.
Outlook Magazine 1995 Polling in Kashmir
Outlook Magazine 1995 Polling in Kashmir
AFGHANISTAN
Soviet-Afghan War USSR (led by Brezhnev) invade Afghanistan on Christmas Eve 1979. USSR (led by Gorbachev) withdraws forces on 15 May 1988 (per Geneva Accords). The USSR s Vietnam. USSR invades to support communist government set up after Saur Revolution (1978), per conditions of treaty.
Soviet-Afghan War Insurgency develops in 1975. US supports insurgency against communist government (?). US definitely supports insurgents after the Soviet invasion mostly by giving money to Pakistan ISI, which then gives it to insurgents.
Post-USSR Post-USSR communist government holds on but is eventually overrun by Mujahidin. Mujahidin take capital (Kabul) but immediately begin fighting one another for control of the country (1992).
The Rise of the Taliban Pakistan is eager to (1) have influence in Afghanistan and (2) get refugees out of Pakistan. Pakistan s ISI begins supporting Taliban. With this aid Taliban is able to conquer most warlords (save Northern Alliance).
The Taliban 1. Destroy Buddhas of Bamiyan (2001). 2. Women can only work in medical industry 3. Ban satellite dishes, pool tables, alcohol, chess, anything that promotes sex, etc. 4. Anti-modern.
Northern Alliance Created in 1996. Leader was Ahmad Shah Massoud (assassinated). Fought against the Taliban.
Status Quo US troops in Afghanistan has tripled under President Obama to about 100,000. These numbers are unlikely to change until at least 2012.
SRI LANKA
Liberation Tigers for a Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Leader was Vellupillai Prabhakaran. Eelam refers to Tamil Sri Lanka state (generally the Jaffna region). Secessionist movement which means that LTTE want their own state removed from Sri Lanka proper.
Why Civil War? Conflict over language. British system favors Tamils (by accident), so Tamil individuals possess government jobs with higher per capita probability than Sinhala individuals.
Transition from British Rule British colonial rule ends in February 1948 and conflict begins shortly thereafter. Largely peaceful ethnic elites are friendly. Two competing political parties alternate in and out of power.
Indian Tamils Indian Tamils are distinct from native Tamils. Migrate from India to work on tea plantations. 11.7% of population in 1946. 5.5% of population in 1981. Receive right to vote under 1978 constitution. 200,000 still considered stateless. Lowest socioeconomic status group in Sri Lanka. Not involved in separatist conflict.
Tamil/Sinhal Origins Sinhala claim that Mahavamsa indicates that they were the first settlers of Sri Lanka (2500 years ago). Tamils claim that since South Indian ancestors land on Australia 40,000 years ago, and Americas 16,000 years ago, it makes sense to think that they came to Sri Lanka first (since it is closer than both). Really, both identities have same origins.
Sinhalese Propaganda Mahavamsa tells of King s conflict against enemy forces. Some Sinhalese elite have argued that this was really a conflict between Buddhists and Tamils. Not true, many Tamils were Buddhist and many Sinhalese individuals were not Buddhist. Folklore promotes idea amongst Sinhalese nationalists that Sri Lanka is Sihidipa (the island of the Sinhalese) and the Dhammadipa (island to preserve and propegate Buddhism).
Constitutional Development Soulbury Constitution (1946) state should not favor one ethnic group over another. Endemic of polyethnic elites who do not think nationalist identities will become problematic. After independence and as late as 1953 (e.g. banking) English is dominant language used by government. a Government of the Sinhalese- or Tamil-speaking 6,200,000, by the English-speaking 20,000 Government servants, for the 400,000 Englishspeaking public (Sri Lanka State Council Report, 1946).
Swabasha Movement Literally means self-language movement. Recognizes that dominant status of English marginalizes Sinhalese/Tamil speakers. Largely a Sinhalese led movement (Tamils are more likely to know English). Some Tamils are supportive of the movement. October 1953 Chairman of the Official Languages Commission issues first call for Sinhalese-speaking only government.
Swabasha Movement Sinhala-Only Act (1956) Riots in the 70 s/80 s. Contemporary efforts to bring about linguistic harmony seem too little too late.
LTTE Forms on May 5, 1976. Goal: Tamil Eelam with Marxist ideology. At one point controlled most of N. Sri Lanka. Organization has two wings military and political. LTTE leader oversees both wings. Three military wings Sea Tigers, Air Tigers, and Charles Anthony Regiment.
LTTE Fighters undergo special training. 1983 Women s Front of the Liberation Tigers is formed, exclusive training camp set up in 1987. High recruitment because women are suffer severe repression. By 2002 of 17,000 LTTE deaths, women account for 4,000. Black Tigers Suicide Squad. 100 attacks done by women. Famously kill Rajiv Gandhi (Indian PM, 1991).
LTTE Tiger Cubs Children s wing of LTTE, initially nonmilitary but by 1984 the wing becomes militant. 40% of LTTE forces between the ages of 9-18. Study suggests that after 1987 60% of dead LTTE fighters were under 18, and most were 10-16 years old. Defeat Prabhakaran is killed 18 May 2009, government later defeats LTTE and ends civil war, although small activity is still ongoing.