Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News
ABC News/BBC/ARD poll in Afghanistan Fourth in a series since 2005 Field Dates: Dec. 30, 2008-Jan. 12, 2009 Interviews: 1,534 Coverage: Full national
Methodology: 194 random sampling points, stratified urban/rural, PPS to district, SRS at settlement level. Oversamples: Balkh, Helmand, Herat, Kandahar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, Wardak. Field: Random route, Kish grid. 176 Afghan interviewers, 86/90 w/m, 18% supervised or backchecked, logical controls in DP. Average 33-minute interview. Contact rate 91 percent, co-operation rate 95 percent, net RR 86 percent. Field work by Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research, subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc., Vienna, Va.
Baghlan (ACSOR photo)
Badakhshan (ACSOR photo)
Kunar (ACSOR photo)
Badakhshan (ACSOR photo)
Badghis (ACSOR photo)
Laghman (ACSOR photo)
Laghman (ACSOR photo)
Badghis (ACSOR photo)
Baghlan (ACSOR photo)
Badghis (ACSOR photo)
Baghlan (ACSOR photo)
Kandahar (ACSOR photo)
Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)
Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)
Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)
Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)
Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)
Field Reports
Pawran: The last explosion had a bad effect on people, they all seemed afraid and had concern about security. That explosion was in Charikar and killed seven and more than 10 were injured in the attack. Khost: The way is block(ed) due to heavy snow and people are facing problems when they have illness and other emergency cases. Last week coalition forces searched two houses and they killed the head of the family and injured women and children. These kinds of searches and operations make the people mad and sad. Kandahar: The city remains relatively calm, but in suburban areas there is no control of government according to the feeling of the people.
Nimroz: Taliban kidnapped two workers of voter registration program and they are searching cars on the roads, people want to have police stations on the whole way. Herat: There are reconstruction projects in most districts of Herat province and they are discussed by many people. Several members of the police force were arrested for helping Taliban on 30th December about a dozen others defected to the Taliban. Zabul: The people encountered by the field team complained about security and there was a sense of dissatisfaction with foreign forces, ANA (Afghan Army) and ANP (police) because they make problems for the people rather than help them. There were also complaints about the lack of medical facilities.
Ghazni: There has been an increase in reconstruction projects but the roads of some districts are blocked due to heavy snow and people are in economic problems. Paktika: People have complaints about high prices of foods and fuels. Takhar: Ahangran district villages received electricity and security has improved. Badghis: Voter registration process has started in the districts. People are starting to register. Farah: There is an impression that many younger people are trying to go to Iran to look for work and better security.
Just Today 2/11/09 19 killed, 54 injured in attacks on the Ministry of Justice and Prisons Department buildings in Kabul. About three hours after the first attacks in Kabul, ABC News received a call from the Taliban. The caller claimed there were more than 20 suicide attackers in the city. Of course totally unverifiable, but clearly an attempt to paralyze the city with fear.
Key Findings
Reason 1: Security
Resurgence of the Taliban
Local Conditions/ Development
Demographic Profile 48% illiterate; 59%, no formal education 93% monthly incomes <$300; 54% <$100 55% have no electric power. Of rest: 15% own generator, 17% share generator, 13% power line 11% own a fridge, 12% a car, 38% a TV. Mobile phone steadily up; 31% in 2005, 55% now 72% of men employed, 5% women; of those working, 64% are farmers, laborers or artisans 56% of adults under age 35 (comp. 31% U.S.)
Measuring the Effects
Regression Model Dependent variables Right direction Performance of central gov t Performance of provincial gov t Performance of United States Independent variables: Ratings, local conditions overall Ratings of local security Ratings of local jobs and economy Able to afford food Able to afford fuel Index (neg.) of local development Index of rebuilding Benefited from foreign aid Corruption a big problem Index of violence in past year Taliban gained strength Region Rural/nonrural Electricity Income, age, education, ethnicity, sex
Predicting: Right Direction Beta Sig. Kabul -0.208 0.002 Rating local conditions overall 0.172 0.000 Taliban gained strength -0.127 0.000 Income -0.103 0.003 Benefited from foreign aid 0.102 0.001 Central -0.102 0.045 Rating of local security 0.095 0.004 Expect life better in a year 0.083 0.005
Predicting: Positive ratings of central government Beta Sig. Kabul -0.274 0.000 Northwest -0.210 0.000 Southwest -0.202 0.000 Rating local conditions overall 0.200 0.000 North -0.187 0.001 Taliban gained strength -0.170 0.000 Able to afford food 0.172 0.000 Expect life better in a year 0.136 0.000 Central East Non-Kabul -0.122 0.003 Central -0.105 0.019 Rating of local security 0.097 0.001 Negative ratings of local development -0.097 0.001 Income -0.091 0.003 Index of violence in past year -0.089 0.003 Rating of local jobs and economy 0.087 0.002 Index of rebuilding -0.062 0.029
Predicting: Positive ratings of provincial government Beta Sig. Kabul -0.236 0.000 Northwest -0.135 0.019 Southwest -0.130 0.012 Expect life better in a year 0.129 0.000 Rating local conditions overall 0.127 0.000 Negative ratings of local development -0.118 0.000 Taliban gained strength -0.094 0.001 Able to afford food 0.082 0.027 Rating of local security 0.070 0.028
Predicting: Positive ratings of U.S. in Afghanistan Beta Sig. Southwest -0.178 0.001 Rural 0.175 0.000 Expect life better in a year 0.161 0.000 East -0.146 0.004 Rating of local jobs and economy 0.132 0.000 Taliban gained strength -0.115 0.000 Rating of local security 0.114 0.000 Income 0.112 0.001 Central East Non-Kabul -0.102 0.026 Benefited from foreign aid 0.073 0.016
Security and Development Security and Development Both Sec G Sec B Both Good Dev B Dev G Bad All Afghanistan 31% 23% 20% 22% Central East 44 24 16 13 North 43 37 4 13 Northeast 39 33 9 11 Northwest 28 22 23 25 Central 24 11 37 23 East 22 3 48 27 Southeast 17 41 14 26 Southwest 14 13 22 51
Security/Development Influence on Other Views Security and Development Both Sec G Sec B Both Good Dev B Dev G Bad (31%) (23%) (20%) (22%) Right direction 52% 44 34 24 Positive rating of: Central gov t 58 48 50 36 Provincial gov 55 45 50 31 U.S. in Afghanistan 39 41 25 20
Further Challenges
Ways Forward
Thank you!