General Election Opinion Poll February 2018
Methodology and Weighting RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 15 th -22 nd February 2018. A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two. Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 8 to 10 are included as being those who will definitely go and vote. In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO. 2
First Preference Vote Intention 25 th February 2018 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Solidarity-PBP 1% -2 Social Democrats = Green -2 Renua 1% +1 Fine Gael 3 = Ind. Alliance = Fianna Fáil 29% +3 Sinn Féin 1-1 Labour = Ind. Candidates +1 3
1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 7% 1 1 9% 1 1 1 15% 1 2 25% 2 2 2 29% 27% 29% 3 3 First Preference Vote Intention February 18 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) 0.35 0.3 2016 Election Oct Jan 29 th 28 th Feb 25th Nov 26 th 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Fine Gael 3 Fianna Fáil 29% Sinn Féin 1 Ind. Candidate Labour Ind. Alliance Solidarity -PBP 1% Social Democrats Green Renua 1% 4
First Preference Vote Intention 2012-2018 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 40% Fine Gael 35% 30% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3 29% Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independent Solidarity-PBP Ind Alliance Green Party Social Democrats Renua 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 1 1% Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, Independents/Others split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 5
First Preference Vote Intention 2009 to 2018 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 45% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Fianna Fáil 40% Fine Gael 35% 30% 3 29% Labour Independent Sinn Féin Ind Alliance Solidarity-PBP Green Party Social Democrats Renua 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 1 1% Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, Independents/Others split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 6
First Preference Vote Intention Since GE 2016 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 35% Confidence and supply agreement reached Leo Varadkar becomes leader of FG and Taoiseach 3 30% 29% Fine Gael Fianna Fáil 25% 20% Sinn Féin Independent 15% 1 Labour Ind Alliance Solidarity-PBP Green Party Social Democrats Renua 5% 0% GE 2016 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 July '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 1% 7
Attitudes about the Presidency in Ireland
Attitudes towards the Irish Presidency Don't 27% 5 5 I would vote for Michael D Higgins in another Presidential election Don't 3 48% 48% President Michael D Higgins should honour his preelection promise to only serve one term as President Unsure/ Don t Know 17% Unsure/ Don t Know 18% The 250,000 per year salary for the president of Ireland is too high It would be good for the country to have a presidential election this year Don't 3 Don't 39% 51% 39% 51% 39% Unsure/ Don t Know 17% 2 Unsure/ Don t Know 9
I would vote for Michael D Higgins in another Presidential election - % (Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,000) Gender Age 18-24 25-34 51% 50% 5 35-44 45-54 55% 60% 5 59% 55-64 65+ 58% 60% Social Class ABC1: 57% C2DE: 5 Party Support 58% 59% Fianna Fail 71% 5 48% Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Ind Region Conn/ Ulster 60% Munster 6 Rest of Leinster 51% Dublin 50% 10
President Michael D Higgins should honour his pre-election promise to only serve one term as President - % (Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,000) Gender Age 18-24 25-34 4 51% 48% 35-44 50% 45-54 3 47% 48% 55-64 65+ 48% 59% Social Class ABC1: 40% C2DE: 5 Party Support 50% Fianna Fail 4 37% 57% 45% Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Ind Region Conn/ Ulster 45% Munster 48% Rest of Leinster 49% Dublin 47% 11
The 250,000 per year salary for the president of Ireland is too high - % (Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,000) Gender Age 18-24 60% 51% 25-34 35-44 45-54 4 4 5 5 47% 55-64 65+ 51% 5 Social Class ABC1: 45% C2DE: 5 Party Support 45% 49% Fianna Fail 28% 6 68% Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Ind Region Conn/ Ulster 55% Munster 5 Rest of Leinster 50% Dublin 47% 12
It would be good for the country to have a presidential election this year - % (Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,000) Gender Age 18-24 25-34 41% 4 39% 35-44 45-54 29% 38% 4 35% 55-64 65+ 37% 4 Social Class ABC1: 37% Party Support 39% 37% 35% 41% 3 Region C2DE: 40% Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Ind Conn/ Ulster 35% Munster 3 Rest of Leinster 39% Dublin 4 13