Poll Results for Michigan voters 12 days away from the February 28 th Republican Presidential Primary election reflect Santorum s growing base with Michigan voters, significant hurdles for the Romney Campaign and missed opportunities for Paul and Gingrich to pick up delegates and the pathway to a crucial primary contest for the Republican Presidential contest. February 20, 2012 Contact: Eric Foster, Foster McCollum White and Associates 313-333-7081 Cell Email: efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com Contact: Tarek Baydoun, Baydoun Consulting 313-729-3737 Cell Email: baydounconsulting@gmail.com The Michigan Republican primary has become a two person race between Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Candidates Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have faded from the consideration for the majority of Michigan voters, even though candidate Paul has an opportunity to negatively impact Candidate Romney s efforts with specific voter groups. Overall, Rick Santorum has a 3.62% margin (37.37% to 33.75%) over Mitt Romney. Santorum has significant margins within key cross tab groups of Republican voters including: Military and social conservatives, Evangelical Christians, Voters who believe the national debt, national security and American exceptionalism are the priority issues of the campaign, Male voters, Tea Party voters, and Republican voters ages 31 to 50 and ages 51 to 65. Candidate Romney has sizable, yet smaller margins among the following constituency groups: Republican voters over the age of 65, Moderate Republicans, Non Evangelical Christians, Voters who believe the Economy is the priority issue of the campaign, Non military (Doves) within the Republican party, and Non Tea party Republicans. The disappearance of Newt Gingrich as an option among Michigan Republican voters is extremely significant. Newt Gingrich is not a competitive option in Michigan and this will put significant stress on his performance in the Super Tuesday contest. After Newt Gingrich s victory in South Carolina, it appeared that he could be the candidate to gain victories and momentum in 1
states like Michigan. However, his defeats in Florida and Nevada and Rick Santorum s three state sweep in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri have sifted the opportunity to defeat Mitt Romney to Rick Santorum. Per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White & Associates, by not actively participating in Michigan, Gingrich may have missed out on an opportunity to take advantage of the voters disconnect with Romney and deliver the most hurtful blow to the Romney campaign so far in the 2012 election. Our analysis suggests that Rick Santorum is trending well in the voter demographics that make up the winning coalition of Michigan Republican voters. The Michigan primary electorate has significant levels of fluidity prior to the election. Only 63.3% of the likely republican primary voters are very committed to their candidate selection. Mitt Romney has a slight lead within this group 42.70% to 40.59% over Santorum, a 1.11 point margin. 19.4% of Republican voters are somewhat committed to their candidate with Rick Santorum leading the field with 43.98% of this category of voters versus 28.75% for candidate Romney, a 15.23 point margin. Mitt Romney is on the edge of a significant blow to his campaign efforts. The combination of Santorum s surge, voter disconnection with Mitt Romney and the opposite impact of negative campaign messaging have created a realistic path for Santorum to win Governor Romney s home state and win the overwhelming majority of Michigan s delegate share. The potential double defeat (popular vote and up to 12 of the 14 congressional districts) would validate the narrative that the Republican nominating process is far from over and temporarily end the inevitable argument of a Romney nomination, stated Eric Foster. Santorum is winning the road map of the key constituencies that a Republican must win in a primary contest. He is currently leading Governor Romney in the following key categories: 5 of the six regions of the state including the Southwest and Central Regions, which are bell weather regions in Michigan. The Major 17 counties that determine Michigan elections (bell weather counties) Tea Party Support Very Conservative voters Evangelical Christians Male voters Female voters 31 to 50 year old voters 51 to 65 year old voters National Debt/Fiscal Conservatives Social Conservatives Military Conservatives 8 of the 14 congressional districts While the overall voter margin is close, Rick Santorum has sizable leads in each of these key republican voting clusters and is losing the Romney base voter groups by smaller margins. Santorum compile significant voter margins and defuse the cushions that come from Romney voters. For example, Governor Romney is winning moderate Republican voters, Economy focused voters and Catholics, but by margins less than 10 points. A roadmap does exist for Mitt Romney to win Michigan and he can still compete and win up to 8 congressional districts. The key for Romney s success will come from 5 constituency groups: Women voters 2
Southeastern Michigan Non Tea Party Republican Catholic Voters Voters over the age of 60 Romney must increase his margins within each of these voter constituencies and he must take the lead among female voters. He must grow to 15 point margins in these core demographics to retain Michigan in his column and avoid a crushing defeat. Congressional Districts Michigan s Republican Primary will award its delegates through a combination of individual congressional district winners and overall State winner. This hybrid model will allow a second place or third place state-wide contestant to pick up delegates by winning one of Michigan s congressional districts. Our findings suggest that Rick Santorum is in position to not only win the state-wide vote, but also win a majority of Michigan s congressional districts. Santorum is leading in the following congressional districts (above the margin of error of 2.14%): 1 st District Santorum 42.29% to Romney 25.87% 2 nd District Santorum 38.95% to Romney 32.11% 4 th District Santorum 40.70% to Romney 26.74% 6 th District Santorum 39.16% to Romney 25.90% 8 th District Santorum 39.39% to Romney 32.73% 10 th District Santorum 36.78% to Romney 32.76% 12 th District Santorum 40.00% to Romney 34.29% 13 th District Santorum 33.33% to Romney 29.63% Romney is leading in the following districts (above the margin of error of 2.14%): 9 th District Romney 42.75% to Santorum 32.06% 11 th District Romney 36.74% to Santorum 33.02% 14 th District Romney 49.43% to Santorum 29.89% There are three districts that are a statistical tie (within the margin of error of 2.14%) 3 rd District Romney 34.46% to Santorum 33.33% 5 th District Romney 38.94% to Santorum 38.05% 7 th District Romney 37.65% to Santorum 36.47% Rick Santorum is in position to not only win the state-wide vote and gain delegates, but he has a statistically relevant opportunity to win 12 of Michigan s 14 congressional districts. This would provide him with a potential yield of 26 of Michigan s 30 delegates. 3
Polling Study Overview Foster McCollum White and Associates, a Political and Governmental Affairs and Organizational Development consulting firm based in Troy and Detroit Michigan and Baydoun Consulting, a political communications consulting firm based in Dearborn, Michigan conducted a telephone-automated polling study of Michigan Most Likely Republican Primary voters to determine their voting preferences for the 2012 February Presidential Primary Election. This 10-question automated poll survey was conducted on the evening of February 16, 2012 between the hours of 7:00 pm and 8:30 pm. A survey of registered voters, equally pre-weighted Republican Independent and Democratic voters who are likely to participate in the February 28 th Presidential Primary election was conducted on February 16 th, 2010. 28,993 Households were called, and 2106 Respondents participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 7.26%. A list based sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters who have participated in a minimum of 70% of the Republican primaries since 1992 and voted for Republican candidates in general elections since 1992. These voters also have a minimum 70% participation rate in February & May elections and Odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since 1993 was used. The list based sample was equally pre-weighted towards Republican voting participation rates by geographical regions of Michigan who are certain or likely to vote in the February 28 th Republican election. Our polling study compared voter sentiment for the February ballot. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following general election contest: Republican Nomination and commitment to their selection Voters primary voting issue for participation in the February primary Foreign Affairs Intervention Demographic and Geographic considerations The margin of error for this polling sample is 2.14% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced sub populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross tab and sub population group as it exist. 4
Cross tabulation groups for comparison purposes Age Gender Race/Ethnicity Voting method Absentee voters & Election Day voters Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian, Catholic, Non Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations Voter Political Ideology Preference Conservative, Moderate and Liberal Tea Party Affiliation Michigan Voter Regions Michigan Congressional Districts 28 Delegates are awarded by winner of individual congressional districts Major 17 voting counties (Counties combined traditional represent 75% to 83% of the voter participation in Michigan State-wide elections) Primary Voting Interest Question Foreign Intervention Question This poll was commissioned by Foster McCollum White and Associates and Baydoun Consulting and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls in the gathering and reporting of polling data. Foster McCollum White and Associates and Baydoun Consulting will be conducting a post national Republican Presidential debate poll of Michigan voters for the February 28 th Primary election and Michigan voter sentiment on Thursday February 23 rd and releasing the results on our polling study on Saturday February 25, 2012. Voter Participation Factor Call List Factoring A list based sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters who have participated in a minimum of 70% of the Republican primaries since 1992 and voted for Republican candidates in general elections since 1992. These voters also have a minimum 70% participation rate in February & May elections and Odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since 1993 was used. The list based sample was equally pre-weighted towards Republican voting participation rates by geographical regions of Michigan who are certain or likely to vote in the February 28 th Republican election. 5
Key Polling Statistics - State Wide Aggregate Results (Mitt Romney): 33.75% (Newt Gingrich): 6.91% (Rick Santorum): 37.37% (Ron Paul): 8.01% (Undecided): 13.97% Ron Paul 8% Undecided 14% Mitt Romney 34% Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Rick Santorum 37% Newt Gingrich 7% Undecided Question #2: How likely, if at all, are you to change your choice before the primary election? (Very committed to vote for your candidate): 63.30% (Somewhat committed to vote for your candidate): 19.40% (Somewhat likely to change my mind): 8.10% (Highly likely to change your mind): 2.00% (Undecided on your candidate): 7.20% 6
8% 2% 7% 64% Very Committed Somewhat Committed Somewhat Likely to change mind 19% Highly likely to change mind Undecided 7
Question #3: Which of the following primary issues or policy items will have the greatest influence on your decision to vote for a candidate in the Republican Presidential primary? (Jobs and the economy): 35.03% (Reducing the National Debt): 24.32% (Social/Cultural Issues): 8.96% (Leadership and American Exceptionalism): 14.10% (National Defense/Military spending): 3.73% (Medicare & Social Security): 13.86% National Defense/Military 4% Leadership/Ameri can Exceptionalism 14% Medicare & Social Security 14% Jobs & the Economy 35% Jobs & the Economy Reducing the National Debt Social/Cultural issues Leadership/American Exceptionalism National Defense/Military Medicare & Social Security Social/Cultural issues 9% Reducing the National Debt 24% 8
Question #4: With the growing concerns about Iran s nuclear program and the growing civil unrest in Syria, Do you believe America should intervene in Iran and Syria? (Yes, intervene with diplomatic and military options): 30.53% (Yes, intervene with diplomatic efforts): 35.93% (Yes, intervene with military action): 2.87% (Do not intervene): 18.02% (Undecided): 12.61% 18% 13% 31% Yes Diplomatic & Military Options Yes, Diplomatic Option Only Yes, Military Options Only Do not intervene 3% 35% Undecided 9
Question #: The Secretary of State is making your choice to vote in the Republican or Democratic presidential primary a publicly accessible record. Do you feel your voting privilege should become a public record? (Yes): 12.13% (No): 76.46% (Undecided): 11.41% Undecided 11% Yes 12% Yes No Undecided No 77% 10
Party Ideology Voting Segments 38.83% of Michigan Republican primary voters are self-identified as very conservative. Rick Santorum has a commanding lead with this important constituency, 52.52% to 24.85%. This is a 27.67 point margin, a 2 to 1 advantage for Santorum. Romney is leading among somewhat conservative and moderate Republican primary voters. Romney has a 42.44% to 32.10% margin (10.34 points) among somewhat conservative voters and a 39.32% to 22.66% margin (16.66 points) among moderate voters. While Romney has the advantage among these two groups, there is an opportunity for Santorum to close the margin. 14.05% of the somewhat conservative Republican voter group and 19.53% of the moderate Republican primary voters are undecided. Even if Santorum doesn t win these voter segments, he has the opportunity to narrow the margin of Romney s lead and win based on the overwhelming support among the very conservative base. Romney has another challenge to overcome with liberal voters, Ron Paul. Ron Paul is leading Mitt Romney among very liberal voters 34.29% to 8.57% for Romney and is tied with Mitt Romney among somewhat liberal voters at 32.94%. While liberals will be a small amount of the Republican primary turnout (5.73%), Mitt Romney needs to win the majority of this voter base to help offset his looming defeat among very conservative voters. Very Conservative Self Identified Voters 813 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 24.85% (Newt Gingrich): 8.73% (Rick Santorum): 52.52% (Ron Paul): 3.81% (Undecided): 10.09% Somewhat Conservative Self Identified Voters 754 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 42.44% (Newt Gingrich): 6.50% (Rick Santorum): 32.10% (Ron Paul): 4.91% (Undecided): 14.05% 11
Moderate Self Identified Voters 384 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 39.32% (Newt Gingrich): 4.95% (Rick Santorum): 22.66% (Ron Paul): 13.54% (Undecided): 19.53% Religious Affiliation Voting Segments 38.83% of Republican primary voters self-identified as Evangelical Christian. Rick Santorum has a very significant lead among the Evangelical Christians voting base. Santorum leads with 47.41% of the Evangelical voter base to Romney s 27.65%, a margin of 19.76 points. Among Catholic voters, Romney and Santorum are in a statistical tie with Romney having 36.77% of the Catholic vote to Santorum s 36.45%. Catholics will make up 29.72% of the Republican primary voter base. Romney s lead is surprising considering the fact that Rick Santorum is Catholic. Romney has a sizable lead among non Evangelical Christians. Romney has 44.47% of the non- Evangelical Christian vote to 27.49% for Santorum, a margin of 16.98 points. This is a positive for the Romney campaign. The support Romney has among non-evangelical Christians will not make up his deficit among Evangelical Christians. The Evangelical base has a 21.04 point advantage (38.83% Evangelical Christians vs. 17.79 non-evangelical Christians) over non- Evangelical Christians Republican primary voters. Romney will need to reduce his Evangelical voter deficit or grow his slight lead among Catholics to win the State. Santorum is doing well among Jewish and Muslim Republican voters in Michigan. He is tied with Romney among Jewish voters at 26.32%. Santorum has a significant advantage among Muslim voters attaining 46.15% to Romney s 30.77% support, a margin of 15.38 points. Romney does have a lead among other religious affiliated Republican primary voters with 30.44% of this voter block while Santorum has 23.72% of this voter block. Ron Paul is competitive with this group attaining 20.55% of the voter block. Evangelical Christian Self Identified Voters 38.83% of Respondents (Mitt Romney): 27.65% (Newt Gingrich): 7.28% (Rick Santorum): 47.41% (Ron Paul): 4.69% (Undecided): 12.96% 12
Catholic Self Identified Voters 29.72% of Respondents (Mitt Romney): 36.77% (Newt Gingrich): 7.58% (Rick Santorum): 36.45% (Ron Paul): 6.45% (Undecided): 12.74% Non Evangelical Christian Self Identified Voters 17.79% Respondents (Mitt Romney): 44.47% (Newt Gingrich): 4.58% (Rick Santorum): 27.49% (Ron Paul): 9.16% (Undecided): 14.29% Primary Voting Issue or Concern Segments 35.03% of the likely Republican voter base cited jobs and the economy as the number one issue influencing their vote in the primary election. Romney has a sizable lead among this voter constituency getting 44.12% voter support while 29.60% support Rick Santorum, a margin of 14.52 points. Conversely, Rick Santorum leads or is tied with Mitt Romney among every other influencing voting issue. Rick Santorum leads in the following issue groups: Reducing the national debt 39.64% to 32.87% for Romney 6.77 point margin Social issues: 70.27% to 8.65% for Romney 61.62 point margin Leadership and American Exceptionalism: 40.89% to 31.62% for Romney 9.27 point margin National Defense, Military: 28.87% to 23.38% for Romney 6.49 point margin Medicare/Social Security: 30.42% to 31.82% for Romney 1.40% point deficit Romney has a creditability and connection gap with Michigan Republican voters. Once the issues of the campaign and messaging about the candidates moves from the Economy, Mitt Romney loses by sizable margins to Santorum. On Romney s additional competitive issue, Medicare & Social Security, he is in a statistical tie with Santorum. Despite Romney s business and executive narrative, Santorum is the choice on issues like reducing the national debt and leadership and American Exceptionalism. Those are issues that should be natural advantages for Romney. 13
Jobs & the Economy Priority Voters 723 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 44.12% (Newt Gingrich): 4.70% (Rick Santorum): 29.60% (Ron Paul): 8.16% (Undecided): 13.42% Reducing the National Debt Priority Voters 502 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 32.87% (Newt Gingrich): 9.36% (Rick Santorum): 39.64% (Ron Paul): 7.37% (Undecided): 10.76% Social & Cultural Priority Voters 845 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 8.65% (Newt Gingrich): 4.87% (Rick Santorum): 70.27% (Ron Paul): 9.73% (Undecided): 6.49% Leadership & American Exceptionalism Priority Voters 291 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 31.62% (Newt Gingrich): 9.28% (Rick Santorum): 40.89% (Ron Paul): 4.81% (Undecided): 13.40% Middle East/Foreign Intervention Voter Segments Rick Santorum has a significant advantage with likely Republican voters who have hawkish tendencies on intervention in the Middle East. We asked Michigan primary voters on their desire to intervene in the Iran and Syria foreign affairs crises. 30.53% of Michigan Republican primary voters want the U.S. to become involved with diplomatic and military options being used. 2.87% of Michigan s Republican primary voters want the U.S. to intervene with military options only. Rick Santorum has significant voter support with both of these constituencies gaining 44.44% of the diplomatic and military voter base and 46.67% of the military option only voting base. 14
Governor Romney only gains 33.65% and 16.67% voter support respectively with these two voter bases. Santorum s advantage is 10.79 points and 30 points respectively. Santorum also leads among voters who are undecided on this issue, leading Romney by 5.85 point margin (39.89% to 34.04% for Romney). Romney s advantage is with the dovish voters who only want diplomatic intervention or want the US to stay out of these international issues. Governor Romney s support among the diplomatic intervention only base (35.93% of the total respondent universe) is 40.91% to Santorum s 28.03%, a margin of 12.88 points. Romney has a slight advantage among the do not intervene voter base, leading Santorum by 0.27% (28.31% to 28.04% for Santorum. What is surprising about the dovish republican constituency is the lack of traction for Ron Paul with this group in Michigan. Ron Paul is third with 19.05% support among the do not intervene voter group. Traditionally, this is a voter base that Ron Paul does significantly well with. Overall, the data suggests that voters who are engaged on this issue believe Rick Santorum will be better at dealing with the complex foreign affairs issues in the Middle East than Mitt Romney. Yes Intervene with Diplomatic & Military Options Respondents 639 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 33.65% (Newt Gingrich): 8.45% (Rick Santorum): 44.44% (Ron Paul): 3.44% (Undecided): 9.70% Yes Intervene with Diplomatic Options Only Respondents 752 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 39.89% (Newt Gingrich): 4.26% (Rick Santorum): 34.04% (Ron Paul): 8.38% (Undecided): 13.43% 15
Yes Intervene with Military Options Only Respondents 60 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 16.67% (Newt Gingrich): 15.00% (Rick Santorum): 46.67% (Ron Paul): 6.67% (Undecided): 15.00% Do Not Intervene Respondents 378 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 28.31% (Newt Gingrich): 8.20% (Rick Santorum): 28.04% (Ron Paul): 19.05% (Undecided): 16.40% Tea Party Voter identification Rick Santorum has significant support among voters who claim membership within the Tea Party movement. Santorum has 52.17% of the Tea Party self-identified voters while Romney only has 22.28% of the voter base. The Tea Party makes up 26.36% of the likely Republican primary electorate. Governor Romney fares better among non-tea Party Republican voters, receiving 40.07% of their support, while Rick Santorum has 30.55%, a deficit of 9.52 points. Santorum has more room to grow his support among non-tea Party voters due to a higher undecided voter factor than the Tea Party members (14.61% non-tea Party undecided s to 8.88% Tea Party undecided s). Tea Party Member Respondents 552 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 22.28% (Newt Gingrich): 11.23% (Rick Santorum): 52.17% (Ron Paul): 5.43% (Undecided): 8.88% 16
Non Tea Party Member Respondents 1198 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 40.07% (Newt Gingrich): 4.84% (Rick Santorum): 30.55% (Ron Paul): 9.93% (Undecided): 14.61% Geographical Voting Communities Southeast Michigan Region 775 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 37.68% (Newt Gingrich): 7.35% (Rick Santorum): 35.35% (Ron Paul): 7.48% (Undecided): 12.13% (Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Monroe) 5 Counties 6% of counties, 44.12% of State s population, 66.52% White, 23.24% African American, 4.01% Latino American, 3.82% Asian American, 0.28% Native American & 2.13% Other Ethnic American Southeastern Region Romney has a slight lead in the Southeastern Michigan with 37.68% of the Southeastern Michigan region primary voters while Santorum received 35.35% of the primary voter support. This is a small margin of 2.13 points. This is the only region of Michigan where Romney is in first place. The Southeastern region comprised 36.89% of the total respondent pool. 36.52% of the primary voters in the Southeastern region are very conservative and 36.52% are somewhat conservative. Only 27.76% of the primary voters in the Southeastern Region are Evangelical Christians, 43.0622% are Catholic and 14.53% are non-evangelical Christians. 17
Southwest Michigan Region 410 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 29.48% (Newt Gingrich): 4.91% (Rick Santorum): 38.08% (Ron Paul): 11.06% (Undecided): 16.46% (Oceana, Newaygo, Muskegon, Kent, Ottawa, Barry, Allegan, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph) 12 Counties 14.5% of counties, 19.03% of population, 80.9% White, 7.67% African American, 1.68% Asian American, 7.17% Latino American, 0.45% Native American & 2.13% other Ethnic American. Southwest Region Santorum has a sizable lead over Romney with 38.08% of the Southwest region primary voters while Romney received 29.48% of the primary voter support. The Southwest region comprised 19.37% of the total respondent pool. 39.41% of the primary voters in the Southwest region are very conservative and 37.93% are somewhat conservative. 46.31% of the primary voters in the Southwest Region are Evangelical Christians, 18.72% are Catholic and 20.20% are non-evangelical Christians. Thumb Region 207 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 34.78% (Newt Gingrich): 7.25% (Rick Santorum): 35.27% (Ron Paul): 7.73% (Undecided): 14.98% (Huron, Bay, Saginaw, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Tuscola) 8 Counties 10.8% of counties, 9.65% of State s population, 79.30% White, 13.41% African American, 4.29% Latino American, 0.77% Asian American, 0.41% Native American & 1.82% Other Ethnic American Thumb Region Santorum has a slight lead over Romney with 35.27% of the Thumb region primary voters while Romney received 34.78% of the primary voter support, a margin of 0.49%. The Thumb region comprised 9.83% of the total respondent pool. 11.33% of the primary voters in the Thumb region cite social issues as their primary issue influencing their vote. 43.90% of the primary voters in the Thumb region are Evangelical Christians, 32.20% are Catholic and 12.68% are non-evangelical Christians. This region has the largest share of liberal Republican of the six geographical regions (7.73%). 18
Central Michigan Region 368 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 32.11% (Newt Gingrich): 7.34% (Rick Santorum): 40.06% (Ron Paul): 6.12% (Undecided): 14.37% (Montcalm, Gratiot, Ionia, Clinton, Eaton, Shiawassee, Jackson, Calhoun, Branch, Hillsdale, Livingston, Midland, Lenawee and Ingham) 14 Counties 16.9% of counties, 14.74% of State s population, 86.0% White, 5.50% African American, 4.37% Latino American, 1.77% Asian American, 0.40% Native American & 1.96% Other Ethnic American. Central Region Santorum has a sizable lead over Romney with 40.06% of the Central region primary voters while Romney received 32.11% of the primary voter support. The Central region comprised 15.58% of the total respondent pool. 43.56% of the primary voters in the Central region are very conservative and 32.82% are somewhat conservative. 41.67% of the primary voters in the Central are Evangelical Christians, 22.22% are Catholic and 23.15% are non- Evangelical Christians. Northern Lower Peninsula Region 253 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 33.82% (Newt Gingrich): 7.25% (Rick Santorum): 34.30% (Ron Paul): 6.76% (Undecided): 17.87% (Emmet, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Roscommon, Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Manistee, Wexford, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Mecosta, Isabella, Clare, Missaukee and Ogemaw) 29 counties 34.9% of counties 7.65% of State s population, 93.84% White, 0.96% African American, 1.27% Native American, 1.84% Latino American, 0.84% Asian American & 1.54% Other Ethnic American. Northern Lower Peninsula Rick Santorum has a slight lead over Mitt Romney in this region of Michigan. Rick Santorum received 34.30% of the primary voter support vs. 33.82% of the primary voter support, a margin of 0.48 points. The Northern Lower Peninsula comprised 9.98% of our poll respondents. 38.64% of the primary voters in the Northern Lower Peninsula are very conservative and 37.88% are somewhat conservative. 41.55% of the primary voters in the 19
Northern Lower Peninsula are Evangelical Christians, 25.6% are Catholic and 17.39% are non- Evangelical Christians. Upper Peninsula Region 65 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 20.00% (Newt Gingrich): 10.77% (Rick Santorum): 49.23% (Ron Paul): 9.23% (Undecided): 9.23% (Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, Keweenaw, Baraga, Iron, Marquette, Alger, Dickinson, Menominee, Delta, Schoolcraft, Luce, Chippewa, Mackinac) 15 counties -18.1% of counties, 3.15% of State s population 89.3% White, 2.18% African American, 0.72% Asian American, 4.49% Native American, 1.09% Latino American & 2.20% Other Ethnic American. Upper Peninsula Rick Santorum has a very sizable advantage among voters in this region of Michigan. The Upper Peninsula has 3.15% of the total State population and provided 3.09% of our total universe of respondents. Rick Santorum received 49.23% of the Upper Peninsula respondents support vs. 20% for Mitt Romney, a 29.23 point margin. The National debt is the most important issue for Upper Peninsula voters which are a variance from the other regions of Michigan and the aggregate universe of respondents. Only 25% of these voters are very conservative and 51.56% are somewhat conservative. 34.38% are Evangelical Christian and 31.25% of the Upper Peninsula voters are Catholic. 20
Election influencing communities the major voting counties and congressional districts in Michigan Major 17 County Voters (Mitt Romney): 35.84% (Newt Gingrich): 6.37% (Rick Santorum): 36.40% (Ron Paul): 8.43% (Undecided): 12.96% 1 st Congressional District Region 201 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 25.87% (Newt Gingrich): 8.96% (Rick Santorum): 42.29% (Ron Paul): 7.46% (Undecided): 13.93% 2 nd Congressional District Region 190 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 32.11% (Newt Gingrich): 4.74% (Rick Santorum): 38.95% (Ron Paul): 7.89% (Undecided): 14.74% 3 rd Congressional District Region 177 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 34.46% (Newt Gingrich): 3.39% (Rick Santorum): 33.33% (Ron Paul): 13.56% (Undecided): 14.69% 4 th Congressional District Region 172 Respondents 21
(Mitt Romney): 26.74% (Newt Gingrich): 8.72% (Rick Santorum): 40.70% (Ron Paul): 6.98% (Undecided): 16.28% 5 th Congressional District Region 113 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 38.94% (Newt Gingrich): 4.42% (Rick Santorum): 38.05% (Ron Paul): 5.31% (Undecided): 13.27% 6 th Congressional District Region 166 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 25.90% (Newt Gingrich): 6.63% (Rick Santorum): 39.16% (Ron Paul): 10.84% (Undecided): 17.47% 7 th Congressional District Region 170 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 37.65% (Newt Gingrich): 8.24% (Rick Santorum): 36.47% (Ron Paul): 4.71% (Undecided): 12.94% 8 th Congressional District Region 165 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 32.73% (Newt Gingrich): 7.88% (Rick Santorum): 39.39% (Ron Paul): 5.45% (Undecided): 14.55% 22
9 th Congressional District Region 131 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 42.75% (Newt Gingrich): 7.63% (Rick Santorum): 32.06% (Ron Paul): 6.87% (Undecided): 10.69% 10 th Congressional District Region 174 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 32.76% (Newt Gingrich): 8.05% (Rick Santorum): 36.78% (Ron Paul): 6.90% (Undecided): 15.52% 11 th Congressional District Region 215 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 36.74% (Newt Gingrich): 6.51% (Rick Santorum): 33.02% (Ron Paul): 11.16% (Undecided): 11.63% 12 th Congressional District Region 105 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 34.29% (Newt Gingrich): 9.52% (Rick Santorum): 40.00% (Ron Paul): 6.67% (Undecided): 9.52% 23
13 th Congressional District Region 27 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 29.63% (Newt Gingrich): 11.11% (Rick Santorum): 33.33% (Ron Paul): 3.70% (Undecided): 22.22% 14 th Congressional District Region 87 Respondents (Mitt Romney): 49.43% (Newt Gingrich): 3.45% (Rick Santorum): 29.89% (Ron Paul): 6.90% (Undecided): 10.35% 24
Major 17 Michigan County Factor Upon review of Michigan general election contest dating back to 1970, we found an interesting voter population trend that is a predictive indicator of the outcome of partisan and ballot question campaign success. Over this time period Michigan s voter turnout is weighted disproportionally to a small number of counties, 17 of the 83 with the state. In each election since the 1992 Presidential election cycle, these 17 counties have produced a consistent range of 75% to 84% of the total State wide vote. These 17 counties are not always reflected among the top 17 Michigan counties in voter registration, yet consistently, they produce voter turnout results that lead the state s turnout numbers per county. In these 17 counties, six are consistently strong Democratic voting communities in statewide elections. These counties are: Wayne, Washtenaw, Muskegon, Ingham, Genesse, Saginaw Seven of the top 17 counties are consistently strong Republican voting communities Berrien, Eaton, Jackson, Kent, Lapeer, Livingston, Ottawa Four of the 17 have become the swing communities, the harbinger to predict success in a partisan election. These counties are: Oakland, Macomb, Kalamazoo, Monroe For the purposes of this poll, we will review cross tab data for these 17 counties and analyze the three voting clusters of the 17 with respect to the Republican Presidential Primary 25