PRESIDENTIAL 72: A CASE STUDY The 1972 election, in contrast to the extremely close contest of 1968, resulted in a sweeping reelection victory for President Nixon and one of the most massive presidential landslides of this century. The results were: Popular Vote Electoral Vote Popular Vote Percentage Richard M. Nixon (R) 47,169,905 502 1 60.7% George McGovern (D) 29,170,383 17 37.5% John G. Schmitz (AIP) 1,098,635 -- 1.4% Others 295,407 1 0.4% Total: 77,734,330 538 100.0% At the beginning of 1972 it was by no means clear that President Nixon was headed for an easy victory. In January 1972 Nixon and Maine s Senator Edmund Muskie, then considered the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, were about even in the national public opinion polls. And Alabama s Governor George Wallace, who had run as a thirdparty presidential nominee in 1968, remained the first choice for President of about 12 to 15 percent of the nation s voters. 2 Throughout 1971 inflation and the general state of the economy had been a worry to many citizens. In a poll taken in November 1971, a majority of the American public, by a margin of two to one, reported they felt the United States was in a recession. 3 In addition the public s evaluation of Nixon s performance as President was not much more than lukewarm. In January of 1972 Nixon s rating stood about where it had 1 Nixon carried 49 states with a total of 521 electoral votes, but one Republican elector in Virginia voted for John Hospers, the Libertarian party s presidential nominee. Source: Congressional Quarterly, Weekly Report, February 10, 1973, p. 308. 2 The Gallup poll taken on January 7-10, 1972, reported the following results on the presidential preference question: Nixon, 43 percent; Muskie, 42 percent; Wallace, 12 percent; Undecided, 3 percent. Source: Gallup poll, news release for January 31, 1972. The Harris survey reported in early July that 15 percent of the potential electorate preferred Governor Wallace for President. Washington Post, July 2, 1972, p. A14. 3 The Harris survey, poll results for November 1971, in a news release for August 24, 1972.
been during most of 1971 49 percent approved of the way the President was handling his job, and 39 percent disapproved. During the spring and summer of 1972 these early prospects for a close election changed dramatically. Several broad factors appeared responsible. First, Nixon as only an incumbent President can do took a series of actions in the foreign policy field that immediately improved his popularity ratings. In February he became the first American President to visit Communist China. He was photographed with Chairman Mao Tse-tung, and he exchanged toasts with Premier Chou En-lai. Immediately after his triumphant return to Washington, Nixon s job rating rose to 56 percent approval. Then the President went to the Soviet Union in May for a summit meeting with party leader Leonid I. Brezhnev. His rating soared to 61 percent, the highest point in nearly two years. (See Table 1.) By Labor Day, the traditional start of a presidential campaign, Nixon was in a far stronger position than when the year began; he would have been a formidable opponent for any presidential candidate the Democrats could have offered. Date of TABLE 1 Interviews Approve Disapprove No Opinion President Nixon's Job Rating, February 1971 51% 36% 13% 1971-1972 1 June 1971 48 39 13 October 1971 49 37 14 January 1971 49 39 12 Early February 1972 53 36 11 Trip to China Early March 1972 56 32 12 Late March 1972 53 37 10 Trip to Moscow Late May 1972 61 32 7 Late June 1972 56 33 11 Early December 1972 59 30 11 1 Responses to the question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nixon is handling his job as president?" Source: Gallup Opinion Index, Report No. 85, July 1972, p. 3, and Report No. 91, January 1973, p. 2. A second event with major influence on the 1972 campaign was the shooting of Governor George Wallace on May 15. Wallace had demonstrated considerable strength in the Democratic presidential primaries during the spring. His support within the party was not broad enough for him to capture the Democratic
presidential nomination. But had he run again as an independent as he did in 1968 he might have had an important effect on the outcome of the election. However, Wallace was seriously wounded, his legs paralyzed by the assassination attempt, and he was unable to remain in the race. Two-thirds or more of the millions of Wallace supporters ended up voting for President Nixon in November. A third major event that reshaped the 1972 election was the decision by the Democratic party to nominate Senator George McGovern. The Mcgovern victory followed a bruising intraparty battle in which McGovern and the Democratic party s left wing defeated two candidates for the nomination who were widely viewed as more moderate Senator Muskie and Minnesota s Senator Hubert Humphrey. The Democratic primary battle left deep scars, and when the fall campaign began, 20 percent of more of the American people felt that Senator McGovern was an extremist. 4 The Eagleton affair added considerable to McGovern s difficulties after the Democratic convention and undoubtedly weakened his chances for the fall election. But as the data in Table 2 make plain, McGovern was 19 percent points behind Nixon in the polls before the Eagleton disclosures. In November, McGovern lost the election by 23 precentage points. Other factors undoubtedly also influenced the election returns. President Nixon had initiated economic measures in the summer of 1971; in 1972 the economy began to improve. By Labor Day the American public felt, by a margin of five to three, that the United States was not the in a recession. 5 In addition, Nixon had steadily reduced the number of American ground troops in Vietnam, and shortly before the election, the administration announced that it was on the verge of signing a cease-fire agreement. There were also some things that did not happen in 1972 which were probably important to the election outcome. Although the bugging of the Democrats 4 Gallup poll, Newsweek, August 28, 1972, p. 18. Later polls by the Harris survey showed even larger percentages of the electorate who felt that Mcgovern was too extreme. 5 The Harris survey, report of interviews conducted August 30 September 1, 1972, news release for September 25, 1972.
Date of TABLE 2 Interviews Approve Disapprove No Opinion George McGovern versus Richard April 21-24 53% 34% 13% Nixon: The Gallup April 28-May 1 49 39 12 Poll's "Test Election" Results between April and President's Trip to Moscow Election Eve, 1972 May 26-29 53 34 13 June 16-19 54 37 9 Democratic Convention July 14-17 56 37 7 Eagleton Disclosures Prior to His Resignation Late July 57 32 11 Eagleton's Resignation and the Subsequent Selection of Shriver August 5-12 57 31 12 Republican Convention August 25-28 64 30 6 September 22-25 61 33 6 October 13-18 59 36 5 November 2-4 62 38 Actual Election Resu lts (two-party vote) 62 38 Source: Gallup Poll, Washington Post,September 10, 1972, p. A3; Gallup Opinion Index, Report No. 89, November 1972, pp. 1-3. Watergate headquarters in June was to become an explosive political controversy after the election, Senator McGovern s efforts to make an issue of corruption in government by focusing on Watergate were largely unsuccessful. 6 Nor did the large number of new voters, on whom McGovern forces had been counting, help the Democratic candidate very much. Only about 12 million of the 25 million potential voters under the age of twenty-five actually voted. Among those who did vote, President Nixon and Senator McGovern ran about even. 7 6 A Gallup poll released on October 7, 1972 concluded that the Watergate incident was influencing few voters. Only 3 percent of the public, the poll found, listed corruption in government as an important problem facing the country today. 7 Although younger voters did not provide a large pro-mcgovern majority, then were more pro- Democratic than older voters, just as they have been in most other recent presidential elections. The Gallup poll reported that voters under age thirty gave 48 percent of their votes to McGovern. Voters age thirty to forty-nine gave him 33 percent, and those fifty and over gave him 36 percent. Source: Gallup poll, news release for Decemeber 14, 1972.
On election day Nixon won everywhere except in Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. But there was massive ticket splitting. As their presidential ticket was being routed, the Democrats retained control of the House by 243 seats to 192, made a net gain of two Senate seats, and showed substantial strength in the races for governor, and in the state legislatures. In the presidential voting, however, two features were particularly striking. As noted before, in 1972 the voters attitudes on issues and their perceptions of how the candidates stood on those issues appear to have had major effect on the vote. In this sense, the University of Michigan s election analysts have called the 1972 presidential contest an ideological election. 8 This in turn raises major questions about the future of the American party system if issue-oriented voting becomes increasingly important and frequent. 8 Miller, Miller, Raine, and Brown, A majority Party in Disarray.
Second, compared with previous presidential voting patterns, there were some dramatic changes in the way certain major groups in the electorate voted in 1972. Richard Nixon, a Republican, won more than half of the vote of labor union members, who had been traditionally Democratic. The President also had a majority among normally Democratic Catholic voters. And the South, a Democratic bastion for nearly three generations following the Civil War, was the region where support for Nixon was the strongest. The Electoral System These were startling figures in terms of traditional voting alignments in the United States. They also raised a larger question. Did Nixon s victory represent the emergence of a viable Republican majority at the presidential level? Or was it merely a response by the voters to short-term issue and other political factors in 1972? The answer was not clear. Moreover, unexpected events can influence politics. Less than six month s after Nixon s triumph, the Watergate affair had cast a long shadow over the White House and his presidency.