Origins and evelopment of Congress 17.251 pring 2016
Congressional Historical Eras and Electoral iscontinuities A dawning new era? Critical periods 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform Congressional systems
1789 1812 (Experimental system) Electoral dynamics Organizational dynamics uring critical period uring cong l system -Elite electorate (Table 3.2) -Feds vs. eps. ules Comms. Party leadership -Floor supreme - previous q developed in the House -Ad hoc select comms. dominate -Loose formal organization 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
1812 20 (Transition from Experimental to Antebellum systems) Electorate expands Federalists discredited lavery now an issue Napoleanic Wars end 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
1820 60 (Antebellum system) Organizational dynamics Electoral dynamics ules Comms. Party leadership -Mass electorate -Whigs vs. ems. Committees take agenda control -tandings dominate selects -Van Buren tries to make Congress a partisan organ, but -comm chairs compete w/ peaker -egional divisions complicate peakership selection (next slide) -enate leadership remains weak 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
Balloting for peaker Candidates receiving votes Cadidates receiving 10 or more votes 20 Number of candidates 15 10 5 0 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 Year
Balloting for Clerk 20 15 Number of ballots 10 5 0 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 Year
Winning peaker Largest party Year Cong. Ballots Name, tate Party Name Pct. 1825 19 2 John W. Taylor, N.Y. Adams Adams 51.2 1827 20 1 Andrew tevenson, Va. Jackson Jackson 53.1 1829 21 1 Andrew tevenson, Va. Jackson Jackson 63.8 1831 22 1 Andrew tevenson, Va. Jackson Jackson 59.2 1833 23 1 Andrew tevenson, Va. Jackson Jackson 59.6 1834 23 10 John Bell, Tenn. Jackson 1835 24 1 James K. Polk. Tenn. Jackson Jackson 59.1 1837 25 1 James K. Polk. Tenn. em. emocrat 52.9 1839 26 11 obert M.T. Hunter, Va. Whig emocrat 51.7 1841 27 1 John White, Ky. Whig Whig 58.7 1843 28 1 John W. Jones, Va. em. emocrat 65.9 1845 29 1 John W. avis, Ind. em. emocrat 62.3 1847 30 3 obert C. Winthrop, Mass. Whig. Whig 50.4 1849 31 63 Howell Cobb, Ga. em. emocrat 48.5 1851 32 1 Linn Boyd, Ky. em. emocrat 54.5 1853 33 1 Linn Boyd, Ky. em. emocrat 67.1 1855 34 133 Nathaniel Banks, Mass. Amer. Opposition 42.7
The Effect of the Balance ule tylized House tylized enate W (N) lavery N W H (N) lavery N N N N N N N N Gov t Activism Gov t Activism
The Effect of the Balance ule W (N) lavery N W H (N) Gov t Activism
1860 1865 (Transition from Antebellum to Civil War ystem outh excluded from national elections Party support highly regionalized 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
1865 1896 (Civil War ystem) Organizational dynamics Electoral dynamics ules Comms. Party leadership -ems. v. eps. -em. trength in the outh -ep. strength in the North -Knife-edged partisan margins - eed ules in the House -Parties take control of committee rosters -Appr. devolution -Party polarization -Party strong -Caucus organization in House -teering committee in the enate 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
Ideological divisions 2nd dim. dw-nominate (multiply b 1st dimen. dw-nominate -.859.739-1.037.986 PP PP P P PP 2nd dim. dw-nominate (multiply b 1st dimen. dw-nominate -1.095 1.197-1.334 1.34 52 nd Cong. (1891-1893) 80 th Cong. (1947-48)
40th Congress (1867-1869) 70th Congress (1927-1929) 100th Congress (1987-1989) ensity 0 1 2 3 4 5 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative 50th Congress (1887-1889) ensity 0 1 2 3 4-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative 60th Congress (1907-1909) ensity 0 1 2 3 4 ensity 0 1 2 3 4-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative 80th Congress (1947-1949) ensity 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative ensity 0 1 2 3 4 ensity 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-conservative 110th Congress (2007-2009) ensity 0 1 2 3-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-conservative 90th Congress (1967-1969) -1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative -1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-conservative
1896 1912 (Transition from Civil War to Textbook systems) Economic dislocations create Progressive/Populist movements 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
A Word about enate Elections tate legislative elections often brought about chaotic balloting tories of corruption in enate elections led to Progressive calls for reform ise of third parties gave major parties an incentive to create a duopoly of power 17th amendment: popular election of senators (1914) till parties become more prominent
The Process tate election (~ Nov.) Nomination? (~mid-jan.) No Bicameral balloting (2 nd Tuesday of session) Joint ballot Canvass No Yes Bicameral majority? Winner Yes
% joint ballot elections for enate Joint ballots --- all Pct. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1871 1873 1875 1870s 1877 1879 1881 1883 1880s 1885 1887 1889 1891 1893 1890s 1895 1897 1899 1901 1903 1900s 1905 1907 1909 1911 1910s 1913 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 Year term begins General elections pecial elections
Counterfactual: What If No Popular Elections? 17th Amendment emocratic senators - epublican senators 40 20 0-20 Actual Counterfactual -40 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 Election year
Counterfactual: What If Popular Election before 1917? 17th Amendment emocratic senators - epublican senators 40 20 0-20 Actual Counterfactual -40 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 Election year
1912 1968 (Textbook system) Organizational dynamics Electoral dynamics ules Comms. Party leadership -egional support for parties -ems pick up progressives and cities Battles over filibuster prominent in the enate -Comms. dominate legislating & careers -consol. in 1946 -Party cohesion diminishes -party leaders brokers 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
egional parties ource: Kenneth Martis, Historical Atlas of Congressional Parties in the United tates Congress
egional parties
ise of careerism: The House.8.6 Pct.4.2 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year ata Lowess fit Update of Figure 3.5
ise of careerism.8.6 Pct.4.2 0 1926 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year ata Lowess fit Update of Figure 3.5
ise of careerism.8 1958 1964 1974 1994 2010.6 Pct.4.2 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year ata Lowess fit Update of Figure 3.5
ise of careerism.8.6 Pct.4 = state HO.2 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year ata Lowess fit Update of Figure 3.5
ise of careerism: The enate 50 Pct 40 30 20 10 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year ata Lowess fit
enate & House Careerism Compared.8.6 Pct.4.2 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year enate House
1968 1974 (Transition from Textbook to Post eform system Anti war sentiment divorces supporters of strong defense from ems. Civil ights movement divorces southern Whites from ems, but reinforces Black affiliation with ems. 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
1974 now (Post eform ystem Organizational dynamics Electoral dynamics ules Comms. Party leadership -eps conservative, ems. Liberal -egionalism per se deemphasized Floor proceedings open up -Comms important, but. -Parties resurgent -Leaders more assertive (epublicans esp.) 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1968 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Post-eform
Loss of regionalism in parties 80 th Congress (1947-1948) (Note the color reverse) 114 th Congress (2015-2016) ource: Martis atlas Composition of the House by district (2014 election results). Light red are pick ups by epublicans, Light blue are pick ups by emocrats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/114th_united_tates_congress#/media/file:u_hou se_2014.svg
40th Congress (1867-1869) 70th Congress (1927-1929) 100th Congress (1987-1989) ensity 0 1 2 3 4 5 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative 50th Congress (1887-1889) ensity 0 1 2 3 4-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative 60th Congress (1907-1909) ensity 0 1 2 3 4 ensity 0 1 2 3 4-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative 80th Congress (1947-1949) ensity 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative ensity 0 1 2 3 4 ensity 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-conservative 110th Congress (2007-2009) ensity 0 1 2 3-1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-conservative 90th Congress (1967-1969) -1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-Conservative -1 -.5 0.5 1 Liberal-conservative
ise of Party Unity Voting (Update of Figure 3.4) 100 80 Pct. 60 40 20 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year ata Lowess smoothing
ecline of Conservative Coalition (Update of Figure 3.7) 0 10 20 30 House enate 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
New Electoral Environment? New Organizational Environment? Election Voters more partisan istricts more partisan Party committees play greater role Organization Party leaders more prominent & partisan Committee membership more partisan Chairs eats Link to finance
Congressional Historical Eras and Electoral iscontinuities A dawning new era? Critical periods 1812-20 1860-65 1896-1912 1964-1994 1800 1850 1900 1950 2016 Experimental emocritizing Civil War Textbook Congressional systems New Partisan