Election 8 Exit Poll David Redlawsk Associate Professor of Political Science University of Iowa More than 11 interviews in 1 Iowa City, 3 Coralville, and North Liberty and Penn Township precincts. Better than a 5% success rate in getting interviews. Took about 8 minutes to do the poll. Interviewers were students in my Political Campaigning classes. Polled from 7: AM until 8:15 PM. Poll does NOT include early voters (About 55% of all voters!) However, it does represent Election Day voters very well. 1
Exit Poll compared to Actual Vote 8 6 65 62 69 69 58 57 Poll matches very well with the actual election day vote in Iowa City, Coralville, and North Liberty 32 36 29 31 36 36 This is one of the best performances we ve had, though only 6 was way off Presidential sample off more than Senate and House President Senate House Democrat EXIT POLL Democrat ACTUAL Republican EXIT POLL Republican ACTUAL 2
Partisan Breakdown of Sample 8 6 43 Democrats No Party/Independent Republicans 47 A pretty good match with partisanship, although a little low on Democrats and a little high on Republicans 33 24 34 19 Independents match pretty well to official Johnson County numbers Poll Actual 3
First Time Voters 1 8 6 87 13 First Time 23 13 EDR 31 42 Economy First Time Experienced 64 65 Obama 44 43 Democrats Only 14% of all voters were first time voters, compared to 22% in 4, nearly 1 in 4 first time voters used election day registration First time voters were less driven by the economy and more likely to pick education as the most important issue, reflecting that 78% were college students First timers were no more likely to be Democrats; no more likely to vote for Obama 4
Presidential Vote by Candidate Qualities 1 8 76 88 McCain Obama 67 77 79 Obama won on every candidate quality except experience; however, McCain outperformed on trust 6 59 Across the board 23 12 Leadership 39 Trust Cares About People 32 17 Stands up for Beliefs Fair/Just 21 Experience 23% chose Leadership 16% chose Cares about People 15% chose Trust 14% chose Stands up for Beliefs 13% chose Fair & Just 8% chose Experience as their most important candidate quality. 5
Most important National Concerns (Pick one or two) 5 3 1 41 31 23 14 Security Education Iraq War Character Vision Natl Economy 1 9 9 9 8 Abortion Environment Health Care Foreign Policy 6 4 3 Gay Marriage Personal Finance Given a list of twelve Issues & Candidate Traits, 41% said the national economy was the most important. That the candidate has a vision was second at 31%, character was third at 23% and Iraq was a distant fourth at 14% The election in Johnson County was driven by the economy and two key candidate traits. 6
1 8 6 68 Most important National Concerns by Presidential Vote (Pick one or two) 79 McCain Obama 89 9 Among Johnson County voters, Obama did best 75 with those who cared most about candidate vision, the Iraq war, and Education 54 3 Natl Economy Vision 43 Character 22 Iraq War 11 Education 1 Security McCain did particularly well among those who were concerned about national security; he outperformed among those who cared most about a candidate s character 7
Perceived Media Bias due to Obama s Race 8 6 66 38 26 Democrat Republican Independent 39 White 45 Non-White Whether voters thought the media was biased in reporting based on Obama s race depends on party: Republicans were much more likely to believe this Our small sample of non-white respondents (about 9% of sample) were more likely to believe this than whites Which direction a voter believes the bias goes most likely depends on his or her own partisan point of view 8
Credit Crunch by Presidential Vote 1 8 6 71 McCain Obama Nearly half of voters say they are personally feeling the credit crunch in Johnson County 35 64 Obama did particularly well among this group, compared to voters who say they are not feeling the crunch themselves 28 Yes No More indication that the state of the economy really did drive this election locally just as elsewhere 9
Presidential Vote by Age 8 7 6 5 71 55 McCain Obama 7 71 As anticipated, Obama is very well with the youngest voters - but he did just as well with the older voters here in Johnson county 3 27 43 29 28 McCain performed best among those who came of age in the Reagan-Bush years Unde r 3 3-44 45-59 6 and Ove r 1
1 8 6 62 Presidential Vote by Sex McCain Obama The gender gap on election day grew in Johnson County, 71 where women were 9 points more likely than men to support Obama 37 28 In 4, the election day gap was only 2 points, as 65% of men and 67% of women voted for Kerry Men Women 11
Democratic Vote by Office 1 8 6 96 68 12 97 75 19 89 % of Dems % of Ind % of Reps 61 9 Dave Loebsack (US House) lagged a bit behind Obama and Harkin with Democrats. Tom Harkin won not only nearly all Democrats, but 75% of Independents and 19% of Republicans Harkin s performance reflects on the weakness of his challenger and how well established he is compared to Loebsack Obama Harkin Loebsack 12
Local Issues In addition to the candidates on the ballot we asked some local questions: Single most important problem our local area needs to solve The bar access/drinking issue in Iowa City 13
Most Important Local Problem 3 25 15 1 5 24 21 19 13 12 Education Jobs/Economy Taxes Flood 8 6 1 9 8 16 6 13 Growth/Sprawl Health Care Johnson County voters see the economy as the most important local problem (24%) a significant increase since 6 Education is 2nd at 13%; it was 1 st in 6; Flood recovery is third, just behind education College students consider flood recovery 2nd after the economy, while it is only 5 th on the list for non-students 14
Local Issues Three questions about bars and drinking Bar Access limit to 21? Responsibility for addressing binge drinking Binge drinking priority 15
Bar Access Policies in Iowa City 6 5 3 41 31 28 52 22 24 25 35 We see decline in support for limiting bar access in 8 and an increase in support for an 18 drinking age However, this may be driven by primarily by differences in voter turnout in an off-year election (like 6) 1 4 6 8 21 Drink/21 Bars 21 Drink/Under 21 18 Drink Comparing to 4 the results for 8 look very similar, despite the 7 referendum results 16
5 3 1 34 28 Men Bars and Drinking Age by Sex 38 48 22 Women 21 Drink/21 Bars Bars Under 21 18 Drinking 3 Women support the 21 drinking age and limited bar access to a much greater extent as we found in 4 and 6 as well Men are more equally split, but 2/3 want under 21 access to bars, compared to about 52% of women. These results are very similar to what we found in 4 17
Bars 21 and Over & 18 Drinking Age by Voter Age 7 6 5 3 1 21 Limit 69 18 Drinking 41 52 51 33 25 24 25 Under 3 3-44 45-64 Over 64 As we might expect, those under 3 strongly oppose limiting bar access while those over 3 support it There is a significant minority position for an 18 year old drinking age 28% of those who are currently college students (regardless of their age) do support limiting access 18
Bars Access by Gender & College Student 6 5 3 23 31 56 31 34 26 17 47 35 35 27 College women are more likely to support 21 only than college men, 31% to 23% College men are much more likely to support an 18 drinking age than college women, 47% to 35% 1 21 Drink/21 Bars Bars under 21 18 Drinking Age College Men College Women Non-College Men Non-College Women Non-student voters are more supportive of 21 only; especially women, with 56% support 19
Responsibility for Addressing Binge Drinking 6 5 3 1 51 48 18 18 18 16 16 15 UI City Council Bar Owners Students Voters think that students are the ones most responsible for addressing binge drinking For the most part the bar owners are not seen as most responsible, but neither is city council not the UI Those outside of Iowa City see things pretty much the same as those in Iowa City All Respondents Iowa City Only
Responsibility for Addressing Binge Drinking 6 5 3 1 53 46 19 17 14 14 17 UI City Council Bar Owners Students Interestingly, students themselves are more likely to say they are responsible for addressing binging Non-students are somewhat more likely to believe that City Council has the most responsibility for addressing the problem Women are more likely to say UI has responsibility: 22% to 15% College Student Non-Student 21
Priority of Addressing Binge Drinking 6 5 3 1 9 8 46 46 37 39 8 8 Voters think that addressing binge drinking is at least a medium priority, but few consider it the highest priority Again, no difference between voters who live in Iowa City and those who live elsewhere High Medium Low None All Respondents Iowa City Only 22
Priority of Addressing Binge Drinking 6 5 3 1 46 44 41 35 1 8 8 6 High Medium Low None College Student Non-Student Surprisingly there is little disagreement between those in college and voters who are not on the priority of dealing with binge drinking Non-students are somewhat more likely to believe it is a higher priority, but this difference is pretty small Women are more likely to believe it is a medium or high priority: 61% of women and 47% of men rank it medium or higher 23
For More Information Contact: Professor David Redlawsk Department of Political Science University of Iowa 319-335-2352 david-redlawsk@uiowa.edu 24