The Outlook for the 2010 Midterm Elections: How Large a Wave?

The Outlook for the 2010 Midterm Elections: How Large a Wave?

What is at stake? All 435 House seats 256 Democratic seats 179 Republican seats Republicans needs to gain 39 seats for majority 37 Senate seats 19 Democratic seats 18 Republican seats Republicans need to gain10 seats for majority

37 governorships 19 Democratic seats,17 Republican seats, 1 independent seat There are currently 26 Democratic governors, 23 Republicans, and 1 independent 88 state legislative chambers 1,167 of 1,971 state senate seats 4,958 of 5,462 state house seats Democrats currently control both chambers in 28 states, Republicans control both chambers in 13 states, 8 states have divided control, 1 state has nonpartisan legislature

Control of Redistricting at Stake

Results of Midterm Elections Since World War II President s party has lost House seats in 14 of 16 midterm elections Average loss of 24.1 seats Range from -56 to +8 President s party has lost Senate seats in 13 of 16 midterm elections Average loss of 3.5 seats Range from -13 to +4

The Pattern Even Extends to Gubernatorial and State Legislative Elections President s party has lost statehouses in 13 of 16 midterms since World War II with an average loss of 4.2 seats President s party has lost state legislative seats in 13 of 16 midterms since World War II with an average loss of 3.6% of seats

Why?

Explaining the Midterm Phenomenon Surge and Decline: Return to Normal Voting Patterns Negative Voting: Disgruntled Voters Turn Out and Take Out Anger on President s Party Balancing: Check President for Next Two Years

Why do midterm losses vary? Mood of the Electorate Approval of President Economic Conditions Seats at Risk Marginal seats Open seats Strength of challengers

Midterm as Referendum on President s Performance

It Doesn t Work as Well for the Senate

It s Not Just About the Economy

Seats at Risk In general, the more marginal or high risk seats the president s party holds, the more seats it tends to lose Seats can be evaluated based on recent presidential voting patterns Safe districts Marginal districts High risk districts

Democratic Vulnerability in 2010: Presidential Election Results in House Districts 256 Democratic seats 169 seats carried by Dems in both 04 and 08 40 seats carried by Reps once 47 seats carried by Reps in both 04 and 08 179 Republican seats 147 seats carried by Reps in both 04 and 08 26 seats carried by Dems once 6 seats carried by Dems in both 04 and 08

But Democrats in Stronger Position than in 1994 145 House districts at least 5 points more Democratic than the nation in last presidential election vs. 114 in 1994 Only 19 open House seats compared with 31 in 1994

The Senate Elections 19 Democratic seats 2 seats almost certainly lost: Arkansas, North Dakota 2 seats very likely lost: Delaware, Indiana 7 seats in play: California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin 18 Republican seats 6 seats in play: Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio

Political Climate Tilted Toward GOP

Predicting Congressional Election Results Seat-by-seat approach (Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, CQ) Statistical forecasting of aggregate seat change

Asking Paul the Octopus

The Midterm Forecasting Model Dependent Variable: Change in Republican Seats Independent Variables Party of President Generic Ballot Margin Previous Republican Seats

Results of Regression Analyses of House and Senate Seat Change in Midterm Elections House Senate Independent Variable B (S.E.) t B (S.E.) t Previous R Seats -.442 (.139) - 3.18 -.822 (.268) - 3.07 Midterm Party - 14.1 (3.73) - 3.77-2.28 (0.90) - 2.65 Generic Ballot 1.69 (.298) 5.66.200 (.080) 2.49 Constant 105.1 15.3 Note: Dependent variable is change in Republican seats Source: Data compiled by author

Predicted Change in Republican House and Senate Seats Generic Ballot House Seats Senate Seats D +10 + 23 + 1 D +5 + 32 + 2 Tie + 40 + 3 R +5 + 49 + 4 R +10 + 57 + 5 Source: Data compiled by author

We Can Use the Same Model to Predict Results of State Legislative Elections Results of Regression Analysis of State Legislative Seat Change in Midterm Elections, 1946-2006 Independent Variable B (S.E.) Beta t Sig. Previous R Seats -.477 (.097) -.616 5.32.001 President s Party - 1.955 (.623) -.341 3.14.01 Generic Ballot.307 (.052).731 5.89.001 Constant 23.66 Adjusted R 2.733 Source: Congressional Quarterly s Guide to U.S. Elections Note: Dependent variable is change in number of Republican governors

And Gubernatorial Elections Results of Regression Analysis of Gubernatorial Seat Change in Midterm Elections, 1946-2006 Independent Variable B (S.E.) Beta t Sig. Previous R Seats -.722 (.184) -.581 3.92.001 President s Party - 2.871 (.938) -.454 3.06.01 Generic Ballot.217 (.086).376 2.52.025 Constant 14.678 Adjusted R 2.718 Source: Congressional Quarterly s Guide to U.S. Elections Note: Dependent variable is change in number of Republican governors

Predicted Results of 2010 Gubernatorial and State Legislative Elections based on Early September Generic Ballot Generic Republican Republican Republican Ballot Governors State Legislators Chambers D +6 + 4 + 199 + 5 D +4 + 4 + 244 + 7 D +2 + 5 + 289 + 8 Tie + 5 + 334 + 9 R +2 + 6 + 379 + 10 R +4 + 6 + 424 + 12 R +6 + 7 + 469 + 13 R +8 + 7 + 514 + 14 R +10 + 8 + 559 + 16 Source: Congressional Quarterly s Guide to U.S. Elections and data compiled by author

Could the Republicans Blow It? Internal Divisions Financial Woes Fringe Candidates

Divisions Between Conservatives and Moderates

Democratic Financial Advantage Source: Campaign Finance Institute

July Fundraising Update Raised Cash on Hand DNC 11.6M 10.8M RNC 5.5M 5.3M DCCC 6.2M 35.8M NRCC 8.5M 22.0M DSCC 4.4M 22.4M NRSC 4.2M 21.2M Dem Total 22.2M 69.0M Rep Total 18.2M 48.5M

Fundraising Through June 30 in 52 House Districts with Endangered Democratic Incumbents Total Raised Cash on Hand D Incumbents $1.65 Million $1.21 Million R Challengers $0.97 Million $0.46 Million Source: Campaign Finance Institute

Finances of GOP Challengers in 52 Competitive Districts Total Raised Cash on Hand LT $250,000 1 21 $250-$499,999 7 16 $500-$999,999 26 10 $1,000,000 + 18 5 Source: Campaign Finance Institute

Fringe Candidates

Is there a silver lining for Democrats?

Midterm results do not predict outcome of subsequent presidential election Public s view of Republican Party remains decidedly negative GOP victory may enhance influence of right wing of party Demographic trends continue to favor Democratic Party