IV. HOW CAN THE POPULATION EXPLOSION BE CONTROLLED? F-2010 Richard H. Bernsten Agricultural Economics Michigan State University 1
I. Trends in World Population Growth A. Pre-Modern High birth rate (40/1,000 people/year) High death rate (40/1,000 people/year) Population stable to 1500s (life expectancy=25 years) (Fig 3.1) B. Modern Increasingly rapid growth (Cartoon) o 1850-1950: 100 years to double (1.25-2.5 billion) o 1950-1987: 37 yrs to double (2.5-5.0 billion) o But, rate of increase has been declining since the late 1980s! Current population: 6.871 billion (US Census Bureau, 10/1/10) http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html 2
Future population growth projections Scenarios assume different future fertility/death rates (Figure 1) 2050--9.2 billion (medium scenario), 1974 est. = 10-12 billion) 2100--10 billion and remain stable or decline (UN)? But AIDS rate = >20% in some Sub-Saharan African countries!! Declining life expectancy--zimbabwe: 1970-75=58, Now=43 yrs Rise of shortgevity in Sub Saharan Africa (Zim., aspirations) Key Concepts Replacement fertility level (RFL)--2.1 kids/woman Zero population growth--in long run, countries will achieve ZPG after RFL is reached But population will still increase after RFL is achieved o Population momentum--3 billion people < 24 yrs. old, (46% of world s current population) (Why?) 3
C. What Causes Rapid Population Growth? (Table 4.3) Key Determinants (country level) Death rate Migration rate (Current Pattern) o US--historical & current source of population growth Early 1900s, Europe; Now Africa, LAC, Asia Increase in illegal immigration (Mexico, CA & Brazil) Immigrants in past 30 years = equal 1/3 of all US immigrants o Europe--immigration backlash (How to reduce illegal immigrants?) Total fertility rate (TFR), higher TFR = more rapid population growth def. Total # of children a woman has between age 15-49 Demographic Transition Model Shows how nations with high pop. growth achieve lower rates (1 st --hi fert.+hi death rates, 2 nd low death+hi fert. rates, 3 rd low fert +low death rates) Developed countries o Death rates & birth rates have fallen gradually since 1850s Why? O o o O o o 4
LDCs o Death rates declined rapidly (1930s-1970s) to 20/1,000 Health, sanitation improvements Food production technology o But birth rates (fertility) remained high (40/1,000) o Results--population explosion! o Then, birth rates (fertility) declined in 1970s (DT, Figure 2.1) Country 1965 TFR 2000-2005 TFR India: 6.2 3.0 Mexico: 7.0 2.5 (2.1 by 2050!) Global TFR: 1950=5.0 2.7 UN Estimates (2005) for number of children/women (15-49 yrs) World =2.5; Africa=4.1, Asia=2.4, LA=2.1, NA=2.0, Europe=1.6 Today, Worldwide o TFR <2.1 in 52 countries=44% of world population (Figure) o TFR <2.1 in 12 LDCs o Significant decline in many Catholic & Islamic countries o Results--slower world population growth rate 5
D. Trends in Rate of World Population Growth Growth rate peaked in early 1960s--2.04% per year (Figure) Current rate--1.2% per year (2000-2005) Showstopper!! Projected rate--0.34 (2045-2050) Growth rate is declining RAPIDLY in all regions, except Africa Two Stories Population Growth Rate/year (Fig. 2.2) o High income countries 0.7% (pop. implosion, Spain!) o Middle income: 0.9% (great success) o Low income : 1.8% (some success) Population Myth--uncontrolled population growth! But major differences exist between counties (Fertility Map) High population growth rates (17 countries (>2.5%) Where/Why? Angola, Benin, Chad, D.R. Congo, Guatemala, Jordon, Kuwait, Madagascar, Niger, Saudi Arabia, Uganda, W. Bank/Gaza, Yemen 6
Successful LDCs (< 2%) Where/Why? Bolivia, Burundi, Haiti (1.9); Cambodia, Egypt, Namibia, Venez. (1.8); Bangladesh, El Salvador, Colombia, Thailand (1.7); Algeria, Costa Rica, Mexico (1.6); DR, Ecuador, Panama, India, Peru (1.5); Mexico (1.4); Indonesia, Sri Lanka (1.3); Brazil, Chile (1.2), Tunisia, Vietnam, Zambia (1.1); Argentina, Zimbabwe Why? (1.0), China (0.7). Western/industrialized countries (low population implosion!!) US (1.0%); Canada (0.9); Portugal, Spain (0.5); Belgium (0.4); Denmark, Sweden (0.3); UK, (0.2); Germany (0.1); Italy (-0.1); Poland (-0.3); Russia (-0.5); Ukraine (-0.8); Bulgaria (-0.9) (ALL of Europe below RFL, Europe = the Gray Continent) Implications of doubling time (Figure 3.2) o World--fewer years required to double population, reversal o Major regional differences (2008 data (Figure 3.2) Low: Europe, 800+ yrs. High: SS Africa, 28 yrs. (fertility rate = 5.4) o Pop. growth paradox: most rapid growth in poorest countries 7
II. Distribution of World's Population A. Largest Countries Most Important for Determining Future Population 5 countries = 48% of World s Population! (China 21%; India 16%; US 5%; Indonesia 3%, Brazil 3%) 10 countries accounted for 60% of annual increase (1995-2000) (India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, US, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico, Philippines) B. Distribution of World s Population Shares Is Changing Dramatically 98% of projected world pop. growth in LDCs (2000-2005) Africa s share of world population is increasing rapidly See: regional share trends and resulting shares (Fig. 30.5) 8
Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2050 (%) Change 1950 vs.2050 Africa 9 13 21 + >140% Asia 55 60 58 + 5% Europe 22 12 7 Declining LAC 7 9 9 + 29% N. Amer. 7 5 5 Declining Note: 1950, Europe = 3 x Africa, 2050, Europe =1/3 Africa Why? Future LDC s Population Share o 1950 = 67% o 2000 = 83% o 2050 = 89% Political and economic Implications? o. (Figure 1) o. 9
III. Impact of Current Population Trends in LDCs A. Rapidly Aging Population Population Pyramids (Pick country--census Bureau) (Fig 8.1) (Examples--US, Spain, Pakistan) LDCs = cone shaped DCs = rectangular (Pakistan, Figure) (Sweden, Figure) Age distribution explains differences in pyramids (1975) Region <15 yrs >65 yrs Future? (Figure 2) Africa 45% 3% LDCs 37% 4% (World Age Dist., 2005) DCs 22% 11% By 2025, world s >65 yrs population will grow from 7 to 11% (Fig. ) Consequences for LDCs? o Must invest in kids--education, child health; creating jobs o Other challenges/problems? 10
Consequences for DCs (and LDCs in the future)? (Japan/Europe, workers: retired now = 3:1; 2050=1:1) o Facing a labor shortage, increasingly dependant on migrants Spain s & other EU country s solution? o Must invest in meeting the needs of the elderly--straining social security/retirement, health care o Other? B. Rapidly Growing Urban Population Began with Industrial Revolution in Europe/US in early 1800s Now urban areas in LDCs are growing rapidly Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2030(%) LA 42 76 85 Africa 15 37 54 Asia 17 37 55 11
Now (2007) most people live in cities/urban areas (Figure1.2) o 1990--majority of world population rural o 2000--21 cities > 10 m. people (17 in LDCs) (Figure) o 2030--urban population will = double rural o 21 st century--90% of population growth in cities (Figure) Growing problems common to all LDC mega-cities (Photo) o Water, sanitation, solid wastes, pollution o Unemployment, poverty, housing shortages o Potential for civil violence, radical religious fundamentalism Priorities for improving the lives of urban dwellers o Reduce population growth among residents (family planning) o Improve education, healthcare, sewerage, housing, clean water, transportation, job creation 12
IV. Is Rapid Population Growth Really A Problem? A. Pessimists predictors of doom! Malthus (1789) Predicted pop. growth would exceed food production capacity Saw famine (positive) & postponing marriage (preventative) as only checks on population growth Didn't foresee...what? Ehrlich (biologist), Population Bomb (1968, 1989) Renewed Malthus warnings Promoted contraception as solution Flavin (Worldwatch Institute) Three factors--environmental change, resource constraints & declining quality of life--will break population growth B. Optimists Richman: Population not a problem! (Figure) Human welfare is improving--life expectancy, infant mortality, food availability, nutrition Population growth promotes progress via specialization/division 13 of labor, which raises productivity & income (economies of scale)
Simon (economist), The Ultimate Resource (1980s) More people leads to more possibility of innovation What if Einstein s mother had practiced family planning? C. Current View Rapid population growth puts pressure on land, water, biodiversity resources => threatens sustainability & slows development Development slows population growths Why? Slower population growth promotes development Why? Carrying capacity concept: def. population + consumption vs. available resources But population growth in LDCs is only partly responsible for worldwide environmental degradation DC s have greater impact on environment than LDC s population 14 growth, due to consumption (richest 20%=85% of consumption)
V. What are the Prospects for Further Reducing Fertility in LDC? A. Determinants of TFR Direct (4)--marriage age, birth interval, abortion, contraception Indirect (5)--education, job, location, social status, religion B. Why Are Fertility Rates High in SOME LDCs? Must replace society (Photo) o Conditioned by high mortality Need labor (kids = wealth) (Photo) o Girls for housework, boys for farm work Must insure future security (Photo) o Kids support old folks Cultural values (Photo) o Norms: kids desired, birth => status (Shona, mom s name) o Preference for sons, esp. in Asia China, India (China-3 min) 15
C. Why Does Development Reduce Fertility? Reduces need for many births o Less infant mortality, less births needed Reduces need for labor o > urban, need less labor o > technology, labor less valuable Improves security of elderly o Social security systems provide safety net Reduces desire for sons o With > education/opportunities, female kids have > value D. What Methods Exist for Reducing Fertility? Traditional--abstinence, breast feeding, spacing, induced abortions, contraceptive foods (Photo) Modern--condom, pill (1960), loop, sterilization (Photo) 16
E. How Are Govts. & NGOs in LDCs Promoting Family Planning? Publicizing benefits of small families & providing information o Traditional--song, drama o Modern TV/soaps, radio, plays, billboards (Photo) Improving access to contraceptives via heath clinics (Photo) o Offering choices not just one method o Subsidizing cost Increasing social pressure o Forced abortions--if not married, already have 1 child (China) o Educating men (large family=macho/virility) o But, values/attitudes change slowly Offering monetary incentives/disincentives o Cash bonuses for sterilization (previously in India) o Fining couples for having >1 child (China) Passing laws related to marriage o Minimum age for marriage (Tunisia, China-21/25 yrs.) 17
F. Have Family Planning Programs Been Successful? Great increase in contraceptive use since 1960 (Figure 6.4) Contraceptive use reduces fertility rate (Figure) NEW Evidence of Declining TFRs Results of survey/study in LDCs, N=300,000 women (Photo) o Success in parts of Africa since 1970s: Kenya (-36%), Zimbabwe (-18%), Botswana (-26%) o Most women use family planning: LDCs=60% DCs=>70% o Most LDC women want fewer kids (Figure) o Great unmet demand, 20% of LDC & 50% African women) o UNPA estimate = 200 million women (Funding constraint) o Meeting demand would reduce LDC s growth to1.6%/year 18
G. What factors have contributors to this success? Strong family planning programs/availability of contraceptives PLUS indirect impact of development.on contraceptive use/fertility o Higher income o Higher costs of large supporting families o Greater urbanization o Improved women s/child health o More female education/economic power (Policy Brief, Power of educ girls, 2 min) (strong link between women s productive & reproductive role) Example of great success--kerala, India o What s unique about Kerela? o Emphasized both Cultural factors--education + social agreement Family planning--clinics, condom distribution, word-of-mouth campaigns 19
VI. How Can Developed Countries Help? Several rich US Philanthropists/Foundations recognize importance/give $ for family planning--rockefeller Foundation, Packard Foundation, Ted Turner, Warren Buffett DC government can help by providing more aid for o Family planning Bush cut funding for the UN Population Fund, due to pressure from religious right (cut aid $ to agencies that refused to ban abortions/de-emphasize condoms) Obama reversed the global gag rule o Promoting economic development Population growth isn t the only problem Economic development slows population growth Development = the best contraceptive 20
Thomas Malthus, early 1800s, An Essay on the Principle of Population Return to p. 2 21
Return to p. 2 22
Return to p. 3 Scenarios in 2003 (2050): High = 10.6 billion Medium = 9.1 billion Low = 7.7 billion Recent Changes 2050 Medium 2005 8.9 billion 2007 9.2 billion 23
(people/year) Return to p. 3 24
Return to p. 2 25
Decline in LDCS Upper line = Birth rate Lower line = Death rate Return to p. 5 26
Lifetime births/women (15-49 years of age) Return to p. 5 27
Severe famine in China Return to p. 6 28
Return to p. 6 29
Return to p. 6 30
Return to p. 7 31
Return to p. 7 32
Years required to double population, given 2008 population growth rate Return to p. 7 33
Return to p. 8 34
Return to p. 8 35
Return to p. 9 36
Return to p.10 37
Return to p. 10 38
Less Developed Pct. < 15 yrs old More Developed Pct. < 15 yrs. old More Developed Pct > 60 yrs old Less Developed Pct > 60 yrs old Return to p. 10 39
Return to p. 12 40
Return to p. 12 41
Return to p. 12 42
Return to p. 12 43
Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015 Return to p. 6 44
Age Distribution of the World s Population Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions Age More Developed Regions Male Female 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16 5-9 0-4 Male Female 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 2004 Population Reference Bureau 300 100 100 300 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003. Return to p. 10 45
Return to p. 3 46
Return to p. 13 47
Return to p. 15 48
Go to p. 50 49
Go to p. 51 50
Go to p. 52 51
Return to p. 15 52
Return to p. 15 53
Return to p. 15 54
Return to p. 16 55
Return to p. 16 56
Return to p. 17 57
G o t o p. Return to p. 17 58
Return to p. 18 59
Return to p. 18 60
Return to p. 18 61
Return to p. 18 62
Return to p. 18 63
Return to p. 19 64
Return to p. 4 65
Return to p. 10 66